Saturday, May 21, 2016

Phils Slip to Third Place

GM Klentak plans to be buyer at trade deadline.
The Phils were in a virtual tie for first place Thursday night in the surprisingly wide-open NL East. Cautious GM Matt Klentak was even saying he would be a buyer at the trade deadline if the team still had a winning record, but asserted that he won't compromise the rebuilding effort that has taken an astonishingly ahead-of-schedule appearance.

So, it was all perfect table-setting for a 3-game series against the horrendous Braves.  Atlanta arrived at Citizens Bank Park Friday with a NL worst 10-30 record; 12th out of 15 teams in pitching and dead last 15th (behind the #14 Phils) in hitting.  Off to one of the worst starts in their history, they fired manager Fredi Gonzalez on Tuesday and have yet to replace him.

The Phils even had team ace Aaron Nola opening the series Friday, seemingly irrelevantly, as the then 8-3 in past 11 games Phils were about to feast on the then 3-11 in past 14 games Braves.

However, an opportunity to pad their record has turned into a nightmarish weekend for the Phils.  Their inability to score runs caught up with them against a Braves team seemingly inept at all fronts.  The Phils were beaten at home 7-1 Friday, then shutout 2-0 Saturday.

Don't blame him: Nola continues to shine.
While Aaron Nola took the loss Friday, he actually only surrendered 2 earned runs over 7 innings, S.O. 6 and walked 2, actually lowering his ERA to 2.85 and 2.00 in May.  He's now 3-3 with still the 3rd best WHIP (0.90) and 7th most S.O. (64) in the NL.   

It was Phils 3B Maikel Franco Friday who made a pair of errors, including a costly throwing miscue in the 7th inning that resulted in 3 unearned runs. He came in with only 2 previous errors all season.

"It's part of the game, so I just try to forget that day and try to come in tomorrow and do my best for my teammates," Franco said.

Two former Phils had a hand in their defeat in the first 2 games of the 3-game series:

Braves leadoff hitter Chase d'Arnaud had a career-high three hits Saturday and is 5-for-8 in the series, his return to Philadelphia, where he played last year.

LF Jeff Francoeur, also a Phillies player in 2015, led off the 4th inning with a single that sparked the rally for the only 2 runs Atlanta would score-- or need-- Saturday.

Manager Pete Mackanin
"Not a real good night," Phillies manager Pete Mackanin said Friday.  Too bad the Phils came out without showing up Saturday to compound their weekend hangover.

After dropping two at home to the woeful Braves, the Phils fell from 1/2 game out of First Place to 2 games out and now in Third Place behind Washington and the Mets.

After consecutive last-place finishes in 2014 and 2015, the Phils have now gone 17 innings without scoring after losing the first two games of the Atlanta series. The Phillies have totaled eight hits with 17 strikeouts and four walks, and failed to bat with a single runner in scoring position Saturday.

The Phils now have the infamous distinction of scoring the fewest runs per game in the NL.  Atlanta, who has just posted 9 runs in 2 games against them, is averaging 3.3 runs per game, while the Phils are dead last at 3.2 runs-per-game.  It's a testament to the small miracle their #5 ranked pitching staff has managed to pull off that they were 24-17, a half-game out of First and looking to be buyers at the trade deadline entering this series.

ESPN's lead baseball analyst and former Philadelphia local sports writer Jayson Stark even handed the Phils the Surprise Team Award on Thursday:

"Before Opening Day, Baseball Prospectus played out the season 1 million times, based on its PECOTA projections. The Phillies were the only team in baseball that was given a zero percent chance to win the World Series (although, to be technical, that was just because they computed to have less than one-tenth of a 1 percent chance). Then, however, the real season started. And something crazy happened: When those same Phillies hit that magical 40-game mark, they were six games over .500 (23-17). They also had a minus-30 run differential. So how many other teams since 1900 had a record that good and a run differential that lopsided after 40 games? Right you are. That would be none, according to baseball-reference.com. What a story this team is."

He rightfully mentioned: Odubel Herrera in his first quarter baseball notables: 

"The Phillies' hyperactive center fielder walked exactly 28 times last season -- in 537 trips to the plate. He already has walked 29 times this season -- in 174 trips to the plate. That's because Herrera somehow has improved his walk rate from 5.2 percent last year to 16.7 percent this year. And how improbable is that? Here's how improbable. Only one player since 1900 has had his walk rate jump by more than 10 percent in one year. That player was Barry Lamar Bonds in 2003-04. Except that Bonds was helped slightly in his quest by those 120 intentional walks he got in 2004. Herrera has been honored with two intentional walks. In his career. Go figure."

Herrera has brought stability to CF and the top of the order.
Herrera has been #2 in OBP and #6 in batting average for much of the season.  Additionally, his power has swelled, and he's already half way to his 2015 HR total of 8 and is on pace to hit 15 HR this year.

Herrera, however, missed Wednesday's game with a sore back and returned Friday only to go 0-for-3 and not appear healthy.  Then, Saturday, the normally stellar gloved CF appeared to misjudge the ball and then tried to make a diving catch, which cost the Phils.  Herrera was not charged with an error, but could have been.  The Braves scored both of their runs as a result of his mistake.  Herrera clearly isn't healthy.

The 2 wins in Philly have secured the Braves only their 2nd series win of 2016.  The Phils will try to salvage one Sunday with Jerad Eickhoff on the mound.  Unfortunately, Eickhoff (1-6, 4.44 ERA) is 0-5 with a 5.45 ERA in his last 6 games with opponents hitting .293 against him.

"Just trying to make little adjustments from last outing," Eickhoff said. "Curve was not effective, two-seamer had good life. Slider is a big pitch for me."

To make matters worse, Braves left-handed hitters love to hit him hard:

Braves Kelly Johnson is 4 for 8 against him and Freddie Freeman is 3 for 5 with a homer. They will be eager to face a pitcher who is allowing left-handed hitters to bat .324.

Read more Phils coverage here: http://phantasticphillies.blogspot.com/

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