Thursday, July 29, 2010

Phils Riding Waves of Victory & Regret

Rebirth:

2 weeks ago, everyone was writing the Phillies off. It was time to regroup, rebuild, hang heads low and look to next year. Now, they are being heralded as the defending champs gaining momentum for another run, their 3rd in a row.

A suddenly rediscovered knack for winning baseball games has propelled the Phillies to within arms reach of 1st place, which led them in search of an arm to guide them through the final 8 weeks of the season and hopefully into their 4th-straight postseason.

All eyes on Houston:

He's been Houston's best pitcher this year. He leads the team in wins and ERA. He's a proven postseason performer, and he'd love to be a Phillie. He's... you probably didn't guess it: Brett Myers. The only thing newly acquired Roy Oswalt leads the league in is losses with 12 (he's 6-12). Former Phillie Myers, meanwhile, leads the Astros with 8 wins and a 3.10 ERA. Myers is 3-0 with a 1.67 ERA in July with 31 S.O. & 5 BB. The Phillies decided after last season that they'd seen enough of him and Cliff Lee.

All about Lee:

"If Phillies general manager Ruben Amaro finishes the deal for Roy Oswalt today, one of the first questions he's going to be asked afterward is: 'Why in the world would you trade Cliff Lee last December and then trade for a more expensive, less effective pitcher today -- 4 months into the season?' " --ESPN's Tim Kurkjian

This move highlights Amaro & co.'s embarrassment at their error, one they are clearly trying to erase in acquiring Oswalt.

"This would be Reuben Amaro-- I mean, let's face it, the Phillies probably made a huge mistake in not keeping Cliff Lee for this year-- uh, basically turning the page and trying to move on."
-- ESPN's Buster Olney

Jimmy Rollins was asked why the Phillies traded Lee:

"I have no idea," Rollins said. "I'm sure we could afford him (Lee). We turned nearly 4 million people through the turnstiles last year. I don't know. You should have Ruben (Amaro) on here. When the trade happened, I actually got a text from Jayson Werth, and he was like, 'What are we doing?' And I was like, 'Didn't we get Halladay?' And he was like, 'Yeah, but we traded Lee.' And my mouth dropped, like, 'That wasn't part of the deal.' "

"We could have kept both of them, but it was a baseball decision for me and our organization," Amaro said. "We could not leave the [minor-league] cupboard bare. If we had just acquired Roy and not moved Lee, we would have lost seven of the best 10 prospects in our organization. That is not the way you do business in baseball."

Bob Brookover, Inquirer: "In truth, the Phillies lost 7 of their 10 best prospects anyway in the 2 trades for Lee and Halladay. Nearly 4 months into this season, the 3 players they got for Lee - Phillippe Aumont, Tyson Gillies, and J.C. Ramirez - look more like projects than prospects."

Phils Finally Hapless:

Bob Ford, Inquirer, says that losing Happ "might well turn out to be the biggest mistake they have made in a dizzying year of player transactions. Happ is 27 years old, healthy again, and was the absolute key to this trade. Right now, the Phillies could have had a rotation of Halladay, Lee, Cole Hamels, Happ, and Kyle Kendrick . Instead, they have Halladay, Oswalt, Hamels, Blanton, and Kendrick. Which would you prefer?"

I was asked if I'd rather have J.A. Happ or Roy Oswalt on my postseason roster. The answer is clear, but the reason less so: I'd rather have Oswalt in the rotation than Happ on the bench, where he sat out 2009's postseason, despite being Rookie-of-the-Year runner-up.

I wish Happ the best, which is to say an opportunity to be a full-time big league starting pitcher. The Phillies never gave him that. They never believed in him, whether it was choosing Chan Ho Park for the 5th rotation spot over him to start '09 or banishing him to the minors and declaring, "He's not ready to help the team" in '10. Happ will have a chance to define his own major league career in Houston, a career the Phillies overshadowed with their consistent attempts to trade him and otherwise undermine his self-confidence.

In his career, Happ is 14-5 with a 3.11 ERA in 47 games (31 starts). He has shined when given the chance. The Phillies never saw him as a bona fide major leaguer. It became clear that he wasn't going to prove that to them, despite his 2008 postseason clutch appearances or his 2009 grace on the mound. He's gone the way of Kyle Drabek and Cliff Lee, now.

There is no question the Phillies have capitalized on their current winning streak with a big-splash trade, something that paid off dividends for them in 2009. However, Oswalt is no Lee and the Phillies are left with some key concerns.

Question marks:

1) ROAD WINS?
They were once the best road team in baseball, for most of the last 5 years, actually. Now, they are practically unwatchable at 4-11 in their last 15 road games, while winning 11 straight at home, a team best in 19 years. Their road warrior mentality took them deep into the playoffs the last 2 years. It was the Phils 'X' factor against the rest of the NL. They must reclaim it to regain their stronghold on their division, let alone the league.

2) HITTING?
They were wrecking crew in the batter's box-- then. Now, they rank 18th in hits & 17th in league batting average. Can their recent flare continue against the league's best teams down the stretch? Can anyone on the team not named "Ryan" stay healthy & put together a complete season of success at the plate?

3) SCHIZO-OSWALT?
Speculation is that he's been playing hurt or depressed or both in Houston. Well, he'll have to snap out of it quick, like in a few hours in time for his 1st start for his new club, if he's going to make it in Philly, where there's no tolerance for under-performing.

4) CONSISTENCY AS A TEAM?
The Phillies 8-game win-streak has enabled them to make up 4 1/2 games on the Braves in a week. A 7 game mountainous deficit became a 2 1/2 game molehill in a blink of the eye. That has to scare the Braves, but it has to not impress the Phillies. Contrarily, the Phils must play steady ball comprised of road wins and effective hitting to return to 1st place. Remember, they may be 8-0 in their last 8, but they were only 1-6 in their previous 7.

5) CLOSER?
A year later, the Phils still haven't solved their closer quandary. Lidge may not be reliable (10 saves, 3 blown), but Romero, Madson and Contreras (10 saves, 6 blown) sure haven't shined in the role, either. I guess Billy Wagner, looking down from the All-Star team and 1st place in the division, brings a feeling of longing and, perhaps, regret to his former team, the Phils, and former teammates Lidge and Roy Oswalt. He was available for nothing last season when released by the Mets... still, the Phils appear determined to make due with what they have. Stock up on antacids, Charlie and hold onto your hat: it's going to be a bumpy 9th.

Parting quotes:

Roy Oswalt, 143-82 with a 3.24 ERA lifetime: "I'm at a point in my career where I just want a chance to get back to the World Series like I did in '05 with Houston," he said. "I'm excited to be going to Philly. I love watching Roy Halladay pitch and I think with him and [Cole] Hamels the three of us can feed off each other."

"I'm excited," Halladay said. "It says a lot that this team is dedicated to winning."

The Astros will pay $11 million of the approximately $23 million that the 32-year-old Oswalt is guaranteed through 2011, sources told ESPN.com's Jayson Stark.

"That was an important part of this," Amaro said. "We wanted to keep some level of flexibility so we can continue to field a championship-caliber team. Yes, the money did make a difference."

Happ, a 27-year-old lefty went 12-4 with a 2.93 ERA & finished runner-up for the NL Rookie of the Year award last season.

"This is all I've ever known," Happ said. "I had an idea driving to the ballpark it might be the last time. It was emotional. I talked to a lot of guys in there and it is very emotional to even try to look them in the eye and know that they’ve been my teammates. I’ve been blessed to be able to play with these guys. It’s such a great group... It’s good to know an answer definitely. It’s good to know where I’m going to be and that there’s a team that wants me."

Trade Details:

5,810 polled so far, say:


THE BEST PITCHER ACQUIRED AT THE TRADE DEADLINE IN THE LAST 3 YEARS IS:

68%: Cliff Lee
6% Roy Oswalt

Phils got: Roy Oswalt, 143-82 with a 3.24 ERA lifetime.

They traded:

Happ: 14-5 with a 3.11 ERA in his major-league career.

& 2 minor leaguers:

OF Gose: turns 20 on August 10th. He's currently hitting .263/.325/.385 in high-A ball. Which is basically what he did over the last two years in Rookie and low-A. He's insanely fast (stole over 70 bases last season), but this year his judgment appears poor: he's 36-63 in steals.

SS: Jonathan Villar. Villar is a 19 year-old shortstop prospect currently hitting .272/.332/.358 in the Sally League. He has made 42 errors this season!