Phils Snap Skid

Tuesday, the Phils beat Arizona 8-5, to snap a 3-game skid and escape becoming the 1st Phillies team since '06 to lose 4-straight in the month of April.  The Phils have been a poor April team over the past several seasons.  They generally start hitting over the summer and play their best baseball in the fall.

A glimpse at the last 5 NL East title seasons tells a tale of April woes and mediocrity with 1 exception ('11):

4/24:  Phils snap 3-game losing streak, now 7-7 

since 1-3 start.

'07 Phils were 4-11 April 20th, before winning 5-straight and finished the month 11-14.  Won division.

'08 Phils were 9-10 April 20th, but managed to finish the month 15-13.  Won division.

'09 Phils were 5-6 on April 20th and finished the month 11-9.  Won division.

'10 Phils were 8-5 April 20th and 12-10 at the end of the month.  Won division.

'11 Phils were 11-6  April 20th and 18-8 at the end of the month.  Won division.

'12 Phils were 7-7  April 20th, are now 8-10 and are well within reach of the April win % achieved by 4 of the past 5 division title Phillies teams.

In fact, with Tuesday's win over the Diamondbacks, the Phils improved to 8-10, which matches the '08 Championship team's record after 18 games.  However, few Phils fans are thinking World Series right now.

To say that the team is struggling is stating the obvious, which is what John Kruk and co. did on "Baseball Tonight" last night, when they forecast a long, bad season for the Fightin'.  In fact, the featurette link is, "Bad Phillies," while the piece itself is titled, "Are We Worried Yet?"

If you're a Phillies fan, you were born worried.  However, this time, it appears your worries are, unfortunately, confirmed every time the Phils take the field.  Perhaps even when they don't:

Cliff Lee (Oblique Strain) and Hunter Pence (left shoulder) are the latest injured Phils, joining Utley (knee) and Howard (heel) with an excess of All-Star, MVP and Cy Young brass between them.

More troubling, however, is how poor the Phils play is on the field.

Lee was dazzling for 10 innings on 4/18/12

4/18 was a pitching high and hitting low, when  Cliff Lee threw 10 astounding shutout innings, but the team failed to score behind him and lost the game.

4/23/05 - Last 10 shutout innings in any game: Mark Mulder, Cardinals: 10-inning, 1-0 win over the Astros.

7/15/94 - Last 10 shutout innings and team loss: Bret Saberhagen, Mets: 14-inning loss to the Padres.

9/21/81 - Last 10 shutout innings, Phillies: Steve Carlton, against the Expos: Expos won 1-0 in 17 innings.

Lee's career high 10 innings made him the 1st Phillies starter to eclipse 9 innings since Terry Mulholland, 5/8/93.  Lee surrendered 7 hits, struck out 7, walked none and threw strikes with 81 of 102 pitches.

After the game, Lee went on the DL with a shoulder injury, but the Phillies insist it wasn't from overuse.

"I was told I was done after 9, but I said I could easily pitch another inning," Lee said after the game.  "I tried it again after 10, but it didn't happen."

The Phillies are presently playing 15 straight games without a day off.  They are 7-7 on this string of games.

Jimmy Rollins is 3-for-32 on the current road trip. He is hitting .229 with a .267 OBP.

Meanwhile, NL East-leading Washington has hit the stride they predicted when they dropped $126 million for 7 years of Jayson Werth.  Last year, when Werth batted .232 with 58 RBI, it looked like the Phils had shed dead weight and saved a load of cash.  Who's laughing now?  Werth leads the Nationals with a .322 Ave. and a .412 OBP.  The Nationals, meanwhile, have off-season addition Brad Lidge, boast MLB's 3rd best record (12-4) and #1 ERA: 2.34.

Yes, they will fall to Earth, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Phils will catapult up.

Another early '12 low-point (perhaps, by September, we'll need a low-light reel) was this past weekend in San Diego.  I was there, along with thousands of visible Phillies fans-- and Flyers fans for that matter (the Flyers have often outscored the Phillies in April).  There were red and orange hats and jerseys everywhere as San Diego was besieged by Philly fans.

We came out to see the Phils we've come to know and love: Nix, Wigginton, Savery, Galvis, Pierre... ?!

The number of Phillies starters Sunday, who were on the roster a year ago?  3.

Phils errors Sunday: 3.

Phils runners left on base Sunday: 10.

The Phils batting average ranks among the top in the league, while their runs scored is nearly rock bottom.  They are logging some of the fewest pitches-per-at-bat in all of baseball.

The Phils boosted the Padres season record by 40% by losing twice to the hapless soon-to-be sold squad.

Noticeably absent Sunday was Jayson Werth in Right Field.  Werth's lanky frame looked light as a feather when he raced across the field and gobbled up whatever came his way.  He would lay himself out fully horizontal in what appeared to be a mile long stretch to stab the air and claim an out.  It was a thing of beauty when he and Victorino spanned 90% of the field, spreading like sunlight, while Burrell/Ibanez tried to stay out of their way as much as possible.

4/22/12, 1st inning: 1st of 2 costly misplays by Pence

Instead, Sunday, Hunter Pence was misplaying balls in Right Field (diving and missing when he clearly should've kept the ball in front of him) and costing the Phils runs like it was a preview screening of "The Three Stooges" remake.  The Phils fan to my left kept calling them, "The Bad News Bears."  The Phils fan to my right reassured me that this was just "extended Spring Training," that these players were merely "placeholders for the Real Phils."  I couldn't help thinking, 'It's April, and we're in the cellar, 5 1/2 games back.  Feels like old times.'

On the bright side, Howard will return, sooner because the team is floundering, and his presence alone will help as each player in the order sees better pitches as a result.

The pitching staff is playing to expectations: 2.81 ERA ranks 4th in the NL. 

8th inning set-up man Chad Qualls has been a nice early surprise out of the bullpen.  He surrendered his 1st run Tuesday, but ranks 2nd in the NL in Holds.

New closer Jonathan Papelbon is 6-6 in saves with a 1.13 ERA.

4/24/12:  Worley's 6 S.O. were all strike 3 caught-looking.

Vance Worley hasn't lost a beat from his Rookie-of-the-Year candidate '11 season.  Worley (2-1) lowered his ERA to 2.16 while beating Arizona Tuesday night.  Worley, who struck out a career-high 11 in 7 innings of a Phils shutout on April 20th, has 27 S.O. to 9 BB in 25 IP.

Tuesday, Hunter Pence, playing through pain snapped an 0-for-his-last 16 in the 4th inning with his 3rd HR.  He nearly hit a 2nd HR in the 7th, but it sailed foul by about a foot.

Shane Victorino hit his 4th HR Tuesday and is on pace for a career-high.  The Phils 3 HR Tuesday was a season-high.

If the Phils can reach .500 and hold there until some of the regulars come back and others start producing, they should be in a position to make a push over the summer and hit a late-season stride to yet make a run at their 6th-straight division title.

In the meantime, they have been and may continue to be at times tougher to watch than we've been accustomed to in recent years.

Expectations & Doubts Equally High

Thursday, April 5th @ 1:35 EST

Phillies	@
(0-0, 0-0 away)
Pirates
(0-0, 0-0 home)

PHI: Halladay (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

PIT: Bedard (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

It's a few hours until Opening Day.

Rarely have the words "Play Ball" struck fear into the hearts of more Phillies' fans. This time it's not because we fear the inability and ineptitude of our own players. This time it’s different. We don't fear another season of loser jokes or another in a long line at the bottom of the pack, the fate of the vast majority of Phillies' teams throughout our infamous 129-year history.

This is, after all, the oldest continuous, one-name, one-city franchise in all of professional American sports, which has provided ample opportunity for misery and heartache.

However, the 2012 season has an ominous cloud over it not because we fear the Phils, but rather because we fear our own expectations, which are perhaps unparalleled in team history. After 5-straight division titles and 2 World Series appearances, 1 title win, 2 league-MVP's and a Cy Young, the recent glory years appear at a major crossroads.

2012 will either be another year of triumph to extend this unprecedented Phillies era of glory… or the beginning of the end, the definitive slow decent into the depths of what we’ve all been waiting for: the other shoe to drop, the balancing of the scales, the return of world order. In other words, the Phillies reclaiming what is rightfully theirs, an abyss, a bottomless well of losing ways.

The Phils lead all of professional sports with over 10,000 losses. In their history, they have lost with more confidence and gusto than any other franchise, ever. If you Google "Worst Collapse Sports" you'll (naturally) find stories about the '64 Phils. After all, they had a 6 1/2 game lead in 1st place with only 12 games left in the season and managed to lose 10-straight, including 7 at home to miss the playoffs.

However, many fans may be surprised to find the Phillies $50-million offseason addition also appears when you Google "Worst Collapse Sports" due to his vital role in ending the lauded '11 Red Sox's season prematurely.

[left: Former Phils' manager Terry Francona takes ball from new Phils' closer Papelbon in miserable defeat.]

"By now, everyone has heard about Boston’s epic season collapse. Just last Friday, the Sox had a 95% chance of making the playoffs, only to blow it spectacularly and come up empty-handed. During last night’s game, with 2 outs and 2 strikes in the bottom of the 9th, Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon allowed 3-straight hits that put the Orioles up 4-3, handing them the win."

Maybe it was his ability to enable titanic defeat that drew him, like fate or a really dysfunctional magnet, to the Phillies' organization. Whatever it was, it beats the season-ending injury to Ryan Madson last month, leaving the Phils lucky (for this year, at least) to have replaced Madson with Papelbon, who can hardly do worse than 0 throws this season.

So, with miles of losing behind us, you’d think Phils fans would be accustomed to and comfortable with disappointment. ‘Loveable losers,’ like, say, the Cubs. However, incompatible with the number of times we’ve been asked to endure defeat, Phillies fans seem to feel each loss more deeply than almost any other teams’ fans reflect its failures.

As the Phillies prepare to open the 2012 season, the expectations are probably higher than they've ever been in team history. After all, 5 division titles and 2 World Series births, accompanied by one of the most celebrated roster of players and pitchers in all of baseball.

On 10/24/11, when the season had ended with Ryan Howard striking out, pathetically, ending the Phils postseason dreams with an early playoff exit (for the 2nd straight year), the Phillies were still seen as the favorites to win it all in '12:

Odds to win 2012 World Series
(Odds courtesy of Caesars sportsbook in Las Vegas).

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES 5/1
TEXAS RANGERS 6/1
NEW YORK YANKEES 6/1
TAMPA BAY RAYS 7/1
BOSTON RED SOX 8/1
DETROIT TIGERS 8/1
ST LOUIS CARDINALS 8/1

Well, now the '12 season has arrived. Baseball must be played. A lot is being made of the fact that the NL East is re-tooled and powered-up. Florida made big off-season acquisitions, Atlanta remains a contender, the Nationals have improved (Brad Lidge now plays there beside Jayson Werth) and the Mets... are still in the Major-leagues (A TV near the Mets' clubhouse last month showed 2 baseball experts picking the Mets to finish last with below-average performances from their defense, rotation and bullpen. "Come on," Mets' outfielder Scott Hairston grumbled as he watched the show. "We're a major league team!" Arguably an overstatement. TRUE STORY.)

Yet, the updated odds released on 4/4/12 still have the Phils as favorites to take the title:

2012 Updated World Series Odds

Philadelphia Phillies 11/2
New York Yankees 7/1
Detroit Tigers 15/2
Los Angeles Angels 15/2
Boston Red Sox 10/1
Texas Rangers 10/1
San Francisco Giants 15/1

However, when you look at the Phils' projected Opening Day lineup it is as nonthreatening as it is unrecognizable:

Projected Opening Day Lineup

SS Jimmy Rollins
3B Placido Polanco
CF Shane Victorino
RF Hunter Pence
1B Ty Wigginton
LF John Mayberry Jr.
C Carlos Ruiz
2B Freddy Galvis (R)
Pitcher Roy Halladay

Think of it this way. Since the Phils won the World Series in '08, then lost it in '09, former Phil Pat Burrell has won the World Series ('10 with S.F.), as has former Phil Kyle Lohse ('11 with St. Louis). Now, new former Phil Raul Ibanez (the Yankees' '12 DH) will try to make it 3-in-a-row.

Meanwhile, the Phils start the year without both Ryan Howard (Achilles Injury) and Chase Utley (career-threatening knee injuries) for the 1st time since 2005. Utley says that last season it was his right knee which kept him out in the spring (he debuted on May 23rd and played a career-low 103 games in '11). Now, he says, his right knee feels "very good," and it's his left knee that is "a little upset," Utley told reporters on 3/24/12.

"I'm 33 years-old. I know some people think that's old, but I still feel like I have a lot of baseball left in me."

Just how much winning baseball this current incarnation of Phillies 'has left in them' is about to be played out over a grueling 162-game season. With the oldest infield in baseball and no more Wilson Valdez (their trusty utility infielder who now plays for the Reds alongside Madson), the Phils have a lot of proving to do. It will be anybody's guess what calendar date they will even finally play together on the field in '12. With Utley and Howard out and Ruiz, Polanco and Rollins having spent much of the last couple seasons on the DL, the Phils are likely to be a team of ace pitchers + fill-in roster spot players with all-star cameos for much of the year.

It might be Charlie Manuel's greatest test as skipper. He must weather the season, temper the fans' expectations, navigate the toughest NL East ever and make chemistry of aging stars and young players with potential (i.e., Mayberry Jr.) to form a World Series contender-- or else be seen as a failure at the helm.

[Left, Charlie Manuel: laughing now, but he may be needed to hit-- and play 3rd before the season is over.]

Manuel's .561 career winning percentage ranks 13th all-time among managers with at least 10 seasons in the majors & 3rd among active managers:

Manager/Wins/Losses/Win %

Joe Girardi/462-348/.570
Davey Johnson/ 1188-931/.561
Charlie Manuel/866-678/.561

“I think, any time you lose your 3-and 4-hole hitters it’s going to affect your offense,” Cliff Lee said this week.

“But we had to deal with injuries last year. Rollins was hurt quite a bit; Utley was out the 1st month and a half or so, but somehow we figure out a way to get it done. I expect us to do more of the same.”

“We still have a good team,” Rollins said. “It’s not the same by any means, but I’m not discounting our chances. It’s going to be different. We didn’t have a great team in ’07, and we didn’t have a great team in ’08, but we found ways to win. We’re kind of back there."

In '07, Rollins famously predicted in preseason that the Phils were "the team to beat." Nobody believed him until the team made him right over the next 162 games.

“Back then, it was the [pitching] staff was always hurt. Now it’s the guys with the bats. We’re going to have to find a way to execute, [put an] urgency on winning and those things are going to be more important because we have lost a lot of pop and a lot of good situational hitters.”

Earlier this week, NBC10’s John Clark asked Charlie Manuel on Sports Final if the Phils were still the team to beat.

“I think we’re the team to beat until somebody beats us, and I think it’s up to us to not let somebody do that,” Manuel responded, coolly.

Thursday, 1:35pm EST: Play ball!