Monday, May 30, 2016

Growing Pains

Velasquez was shelled in Chicago Sunday.
The Phils were embarrassed by MLB-worst Atlanta, who beat them 2-out-of-3 last weekend at home, then tripped up in Detroit, where they again dropped the first 2 before salvaging the final of a 3 game set.

Then came their weekend series vs. baseball's best team, the Cubs.  The result was the Cubs first sweep of the Phils at Wrigley Field since 1995.  Nobody said it would be easy, and in many ways-- especially statistically-- the handwriting was on the wall, but nonetheless dropping 3-straight over the weekend and being swept for only the 2nd time this year (and the first since losing 3-straight in Cincinnati to start the season) must hurt for these young, battle novice Phils.

"Every team goes through a lull. Every team goes through a hot streak and a cold streak," Manager Pete Mackanin said. "How you come out of those streaks - especially the cold streaks - determines how good of a team you are. I choose to believe we're at the bottom of the roller coaster and on our way up. That's the way I look at it."

Velasquez surrendered 7 runs on 9 hits in just 4 2/3 innings.  His WHIP has ballooned to 1.25 during a May stretch where 4 of his 6 outings have been poor.  He has now given up an alarming 18 hits and 10 runs in his last 2 outings.

"When you get behind the count, you have nowhere else to throw a fastball but down the middle and then you give up home runs," Velasquez said Sunday. "It's just one of those days, I guess. You can't do anything about it. Just one of those days where they get the bat on the ball and it falls into play and you have to continue pitching."

Amazingly, at 26-24 and 2 games over .500 the Phils are at a low point since May 6th when they were 16-14 and went on to win 6 of their next 7.  That is more a testament to how overachieving these Phils have been than anything else.  They were expected to pick up where they left off last season at dead last in baseball.  Instead, they have been this season's biggest surprise, an upstart pitching first squad of wannabes and forming talent.

The Phils got the challenge they deserve and earned in Chicago.  The MLB best Cubs improved to 34-14 at their expense.  They will have no time to nurse their wounds, either, when they return home to open a 3-game series against the NL East leading Nationals (30-21) Monday night.  While the schedule was made long before the Phils proved themselves with 24 wins to 13 losses from April 9th to May 18th, that winning run earned them this stretch of challengers they were anyways destined to meet.

David Hernandez has been a great surprise in relief.
Since May 18th, however, the Phils have gone 2-7 and are suddenly beginning to look like the team everybody was reading between the lines to predict would fall on their collective face.  After being outscored 17-5 in the 3 games they lost over the weekend in Chicago, the Phils have MLB's 5th-worst run differential at -43.  They have scored the 2nd fewest runs in baseball at 160.  Yet, they still posses baseball's 14th best record at 26-24 (.520 win %), while the teams with worse run differentials this season are a collective 67-132 (.337 win %).

Much of this can be attributed to the terrific pitching they have had.  That wasn't the case from the 3 Phils starting pitchers in this series.  However, a silver lining was the bullpen, which pitched 9 1/3 shutout innings over the 3 games for a 3.58 ERA thusfar this season, including a terrific run of allowing only 3 earned runs in its last 22 1/3 innings of work for a 1.21 ERA during that span.

Monday at Citizens Bank:

Phillies RHP Jeremy Hellickson (4-3, 3.97 ERA)
vs.
Washington RHP Tanner Roark (3-4, 2.71 ERA) to begin an 11-game homestand.



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