Saving Best For Last?

Domonic Brown gives fans reason to believe.

''It's pretty exciting, actually, for us to have gotten ourselves back in the race and to play a little bit better baseball,'' General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said during the All-Star Break. ''Our pitching has been great, our starting pitching has been outstanding, kind of carrying us. We've swung the bats a little better.  It's nice to see guys improve.''

The Phils begin the Second Half of the season today trailing First Place Atlanta by 6 1/2 games in the division and are now 5 1/2 games out in the Wild Card race.

''We're finding ways to win and earlier we were finding ways to lose,'' shortstop Jimmy Rollins said. ''What's meaningful is we're not out of the race. No matter how good you are, you're going to lose 50 games and you're going to win 50 games. It's those 62 that really make the difference. It's going to come down to the last weekend like it has the last couple of years.'' 

Last weekend, the Phils finished the First Half of the season by winning 2 out of 3 games against the White Sox-- all played in extra innings.  Between the Saturday double header and the Sunday day game series finale, the Phils played 34 innings of baseball in about 24 hrs.  That's 3.8 games of innings in 1 day.  "You go out with as much as you have, but there wasn't much left in anybody's tank," Rollins said.

Good thing they followed it up with 4 days off.

"We have a lot ahead of us, but at the same time we will take four days for what we can and plug away for 10 weeks," Cole Hamels said Sunday after delivering his 3rd-straight stellar outing.  

Of course, Domonic Brown and Cliff Lee weren't resting.  They were at the All-Star Game, where Brown struck-out on 3 pitches to Brett Cecil of the Blue Jays, who came into the game just face him, then promptly exited.  Lee, meanwhile, appeared in relief in the 5th and allowed 2 immediate hits, then a run in his lone inning of work.  None of that matters, of course, in the standings. 

The standings, these days, are finally looking brighter than they have in a long time.  For now, it means trade talk involving Chase Utley and "blowing things up" have quieted.  Of course, that could change at any time.

''They're going to make decisions based on where we are in the standings,'' Rollins said. ''So if we come out in the Second Half and start out hot, then they're going to make a decision according to that. There are no easy or difficult decisions; it's just what's necessary.''

''I guess you never know what can happen but I've never envisioned wearing another team's uniform,'' Utley said.  ''We have a good group of guys in this clubhouse.  We're all prepared to win on a daily basis, and I think that's the most important thing."

''We're trying to add,'' Amaro said in response to the ever-present question of whether the team will be buyers or sellers at the July 31 trade deadline. ''It's hard to add and subtract at the same time. You can do it, but we'll probably be in the add mode more than anything else.''

The Phils finished the First Half 8-and-3, wetting the fans appetite that they were finally showing their true potential and encouraging all that, as has been their trend in recent years, they were saving best for last.  Is there reason to believe this is something more than fantasy? 

In keeping with 'best for last,' "3 Reasons to Believe" will follow "3 Reasons Not to":

3 Reasons Not to Believe

CF Ben Revere is out 6-8 weeks.

1) Injuries.  The Phils lost 2-time Cy Young Roy Halladay to shoulder surgery in May.  Halladay, 36, had surgery to remove bone spurs and repair both a frayed labrum and a partially torn rotator cuff.  He is one of 5 pitchers to have ever won the Cy  Young in both leagues.  One of the 4 pitched for the Phillies in the modern era.  Can you name him?  (Trivia answer later in this article.)

"It looks very, very good," pitching coach Rich Dubee said. "The arm action, he's able to get his arm back up very easily. No effort at all. Whereas before, because of the stuff that he had going on in his shoulder, he couldn't get it up on a consistent basis. But now his arm slot is fantastic and he's doing very, very well so far. He's a long ways from pitching, but everything so far is going according to plan."

As Halladay is a free agent at the end of this season, he may never pitch for the Phillies again.

As if losing Halladay wasn't enough, longtime cleanup hitter and former MVP Ryan Howard joined him on the DL when he underwent knee surgery earlier this month.  Both are healing just fine.  Still, that's $40,000,000 on the DL.

Then, 25 year-old lead-off hitter Ben Revere added his  $515,000 to the conversation.  Revere has a 10-game hitting streak and raised his average from .200 on May 1 to .305, including .354 in June and .388 in July.

However, when he broke his foot on a freak incident by fouling the ball off it, he may have halted the Phils win streak and altered the course of the season.  Revere underwent successful foot surgery on Tuesday, and will miss six-to-eight weeks.  Ouch!-- for him and the Phils.  The offense finally seemed to be clicking behind Revere's charge.  Now they will see him re-acclimating to MLB at best in early to mid-September.

2) Much has been made of the Phils -45 Run Differential (runs scored vs. runs allowed).  There's a reason for that.  The only 3 NL teams with a worse RD are in last place in their respective divisions (S.D., Miami, Milwaukee).

3) Pitching wins games. They won a team record 102 games in 2011 behind the Fab Four starting pitchers.  Well, only 2 of those 4 are now pitching for the Phils and only 1 had a successful, winning First Half.  But wait, it actually gets worse.  The bullpen has been poor, leading to the team's ranking 11th out of 15 NL teams in ERA at 4.03.  Recently, the Phils bullpen had a 5.21 ERA (since June 8th), 27th in MLB.

Last week, Charlie Manuel identified a right-handed bullpen arm as the team's top need at the trade deadline:  “I think for us to have a real good bullpen, we definitely have to have an 8th-inning game – a solid, right-handed pitching 8th-inning guy to go with Bastardo. Bastardo’s good when we can match him against lefties.” 

Cuban pitcher Gonzalez would make an immediate impact.

There's talk of the Phils acquiring 26-year-old Cuban defector Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, possibly for immediate bullpen relief.  The U.S. government cleared him this week, and he has been throwing to attract several teams, especially the Phils, Braves and Blue Jays.  Gonzalez has 3 years pro experience playing for the Cuban National Team.  He is expected to sign with a Major League Club any day now for a deal in the neighborhood of five-years, $60 million.  He throws a mid-90's fastball (peaking at 95), a curve, a change-up and a forkball.

The likelihood of them acquiring a significant Major League bullpen arm for minor league talent in a trade is unlikely, as they now know they must cultivate their talent and keep an eye on the future, while trying to win now with predominately what they have.  (Free agency in the offseason is always an option.)  The only player likely to be moved at this point with the team in playoff range at the Break is 3B Michael Young.  He is replaceable for the Phils with Freddy Galvis and Cody Asche waiting in the minors, but may command a bullpen arm from a team looking for veteran presence in their infield (something the Phils are loaded with).

All of this is maybe.  Right now, the Phils haven't successfully bridged the gap from their Quality Starts (62, #1 in MLB) to closer Jonathan Papelbon (20 saves, 0.91 WHIP).  That's a gaping hole in their ability to win.

3 Reasons to Believe

1) The Phils are a winning team.  It's true that the Phils current 8-and-3 run do not a season make.  Even with the 2 playoff Wild Card spots in MLB today, you have to win close to 90 to get in.  However, a closer look shows that the Phils are surprisingly 32-27 (.542 win %) since they were 16-21 on May 10th.  Also, since '07, their Second Half winning percentage is .630.  That doesn't mean it will happen again, but history is the best predictor of what is yet to come.

Yes, they lost pivotal players during the First Half, but doesn't that mean they're stronger and more resilient, deeper and more balanced then some of the other teams in the playoff race?  Maybe the Phils injuries are behind them and other teams' are yet to come.  The Phils may even get some of their injured players back as an added boost down the stretch.

Hamels in July has been just what the Phillies need.

2) Cole Hamels.  Hamels started the year 1-9 with a 4.86 ERA-- ouch.  However, his July tells a different tale: 2-0, 1.57 ERA, 19 S.O., 1 walk.  If that's any indication of his Second Half to come and if Cliff Lee's 10-3, 2.86 ERA forecasts his, the Phils 1-2 punch could rival any in baseball.  That could pay dividends down the stretch and into October.

“I didn’t get the job done early. I need to take it up a notch from here on out," Hamels said last week.  “We know the caliber of team we have. We’ve been underachieving.  I still think we’re one click away from rolling." 

3) Nobody has claimed the NL.  The Phils are 6 1/2 games behind the NL East-leading Braves.  The Braves are good and young, but fallible.  The fact that they started the season invincibly exposes just how underwhelming they've been since.  In fact, a closer look shows that the First Place Braves have been playing .500 ball since 4/16.  Furthermore, the Phils have outplayed the Braves since 6/5 and have played eerily parallel to them dating back to 4/16:   

Date                     Braves Record Then         Braves Record Since          Phillies Record Since
4/16                      12-1                                 42-40                                 42-40
5/25                      30-18                               24-23                                 24-23
6/5                        37-22                               17-19                                 18-18

So, the Phils have a very legitimate shot at winning their division, should they continue to build momentum in the Second Half. Meanwhile, they are closer in the standings to achieving a Wild Card spot.  The other teams presently competing for the 2 Wild Card playoff spots are: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Washington and L.A.:

National League Wild Card Standings
Team	W	L	PCT	GB
Pittsburgh	56	37	.602	-
Cincinnati	53	42	.558	-
Washington	48	47	.505	5
Philadelphia	48	48	.500	5½
L.A. Dodgers	47	47	.500	5½

The Dodgers are an impressive 17-5 since 6/21 and may catch Arizona, a middle of the road team, for First Place.

Dare we dream?  Could Halladay & his 200 wins return in '13?

The Pirates were winners of 9-straight before they dropped 2-of-3 to the Phils July 2nd-4th.  They are 5-7 in July thus-far and 22-17 since May 30th. 

However, the Reds were 43-28 on June 17th and are 10-14 since and the Nationals are 28-32 since May 10th.

So, while the Dodgers may be formidable opponents hitting their stride and Pittsburgh has continued to play winning baseball for most of the year, the other 2 teams are on a downward trend and there are 3 playoff spots still within striking distance should the Phils do what they do best: streak in the Second Half.   The Phillies are 357-170 after the All-Star break since 2005. They've played at least 13 games above .500 in those eight seasons.

Trivia answer from question earlier in this post

The 5 Cy Young winners in both the NL and AL are:

Roy Halladay, Roger Clemens* (steroid aided), Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and Gaylord Perry.  

Next up for the Phils:

Starting Friday, the Phils embark on a 9-game road trip to face the Mets, Cardinals and Tigers.  First up, weekend series with the 41-50 Mets, who are 17-27 at home, while 24-23 on the road.  This is a great chance for the Phils to start the Second Half off right.  However, the Mets can pitch.  Their ERA is 13th, while their hitting is 28th in MLB.  There isn't a bad starter for either team in this series.

Fri, Jul 19	Phils @ NY Mets	7:10 PM		Kendrick (8-6, 3.68)	Hefner (4-6, 3.33)  NOTE: Phils need Kendrick, ERA over 4.00 since April, to regain early season form & find consistency in Second Half.
Sat, Jul 20	Phils@ NY Mets	1:10 PM		Hamels (4-11, 4.05)	Wheeler (3-1, 3.54)  NOTE: Expect Hamels to continue stellar July.  Hamels: 1-0, 1.50 ERA at Citi Field so far this year.
Sun, Jul 21	Phils @ NY Mets	1:10 PM		Lee (10-3, 2.86)	Harvey (7-2, 2.35) NOTE: Marquee pitching match-up.  Don't miss it!  Two All-Stars strut their stuff in probably the best pitching match-up of the year.

Phils Relevant Again

Can Howard and the Phils return to their winning ways?

The Phils are 46-47, poised to reach .500 for the first time since they were 31-31 on June 7th.   They are about to host a series against the last-place Chicago White Sox, the third worst team in baseball.  If the Phils sweep the 3-game weekend series, they will conclude the First-Half of the season with their first winning record since June 6th, when they were 31-30.  It was the 1 day they were over .500 this entire season.

Ryan Howard's surgery Wednesday went better than expected, according to team reports.  Specifically, they were able to clean up rather than repair the existing meniscus in a procedure called "debridement."  So, the Phillies can actually expect to get Ryan Howard back by the end of August.  It's impossible to say how effective he'll be.  However, Mr. September should be available for September, traditionally his best month.

That means he should be available for 13 games against teams the Phillies are hoping to catch for a playoff birth.  One of those teams is Atlanta, who the Phils trail by 7 1/2 games in the division and who they will face 7 times in September.  The Phils are now 5 1/2 games out in the Wild Card race after going 7-and-3 while winning 3-straight series vs. playoff caliber teams.

This time last season the Phils were 13 games under .500, 14 back in the division and 10 back in the Wild-Card race.  They also lost 10-of-11 heading into the All-Star Break.  This year's team has been heating up against winning competition as the Break approaches.  

All of this is making General Manager Ruben Amaro's job harder.  A week and a half ago, he was unsure whether to buy or sell at the upcoming trade deadline.  Amaro was waiting for his team to soar or collapse.  He was waiting for a sign.  Then, on Sunday, he got one.  Howard, one-time MVP and longtime cleanup man, went onto the DL and then into surgery.  Case closed?  Not quite.

"After [ team physician Michael] Ciccotti went in there and went in with the scope, it was a little better picture than we thought," Amaro said. "I think the player is feeling better about it, we're feeling better about it. As news goes, this is as good as we can get."

Amaro said it probably changes the season's outlook, "because we'll have him back.  There's a reasonable chance we'll have him back at some point. We still have a lot of question marks about where we're going to go in the next couple of weeks. Right now, the team is making decisions a little harder on me, which is fine and which is good. I'd rather be in this situation than thinking about 2014 right now."

Howard is "just not doing the job." --Amaro, 7/4/13

How much of a difference Howard will make depends on how successful his rehab is and how well 1B Darin Ruf plays in his absence.  Howard's plate appearances in 2013 have continued a troubling trend for the slugger.  Howard's BB rank is the 13th worst in all of baseball (a historically dramatic drop from '07). He's striking out less and has a higher batting average, but his approach at the plate is just completely different: he's taking fewer pitches and trying to make more contact.  Conventional wisdom says that this was an adjustment Howard made because of his performance in the '09 World Series vs. the Yankees, when he hit .174 and S.O. 13 times in 25 at-bats.

Last week on Sports radio, Amaro called out Ryan Howard: "If Ryan Howard is now relegated to being a platoon player, he's a very expensive platoon player and he needs to be better," Amaro said. "I think he knows it. I know he's struggling, I know he's not happy with his performance -- neither are we. I think he's going to be better, but right now, he's just not doing the job."

7/9/13 ESPN.com published an article entitled, "Howard contract a total loss:  Why Phillies slugger's deal is the worst of all time."

So, it's safe to say the Phils will have to show here and now, with Howard on the DL, that they can win games in order to convince Amaro & co. that they should buy rather than set up a more successful '14 or beyond, which would almost certainly involve trading Chase Utley, the team's most attractive commodity.

So far, so good.  With Domonic Brown at cleanup since Sunday, the Phils have gone 4-and-1.

Amaro met with Phillies manager Charlie Manuel, the Phillies coaching staff and others in the organization Tuesday to discuss the team's intentions approaching the July 31 Trade Deadline.

"There were no real revelations," Amaro said. "We are playing better baseball and putting ourselves in a position to be buyers. But there was nothing new out of it."

Are the Phils buyers?

"Yeah, I think we'll try to do that," he said.  "I would assume things would go down to the wire, unless we reel off 10 out of 11 or we lose 10 out of 11.  Then we'll have a clearer picture. Right now, we're just not sure. I would assume like most years, it would go down to the wire."

The Phils bulllpen has a 5.21 ERA since June 8th, 27th in MLB.

To set up Jonathan Papelbon, the only reliable link of late has been lefty Antonio Bastardo.

“When he’s going good and in a good streak,” Charlie Manuel said, “he’s proved he can set games up and save them.”

Manuel stated a right hand 8th inning man is the team's top need:

“I think for us to have a real good bullpen, we definitely have to have an 8h-inning game – a solid, right-handed pitching eighth-inning guy to go with Bastardo. Bastardo’s good when we can match him against lefties.”

2 veterans on the team contributed with grit in the 3-out-of-4 series win over Washington this week.  It was the type of baseball toughness that won the team titles and which has been lacking most of '13:

Tuesday,  with the game tied at 1--1 in the bottom of the 6th, Chase Utley hit a ground ball to First Baseman Adam LaRoche.  Ben Revere was on Second with Jimmy Rollins on First and nobody out.  It appeared to be a sure thing rally-killing double play. What transpired instead is what SS Ian Desmond and 1B LaRoche say was Rollins being a wise veteran by sliding to where he thought the throw was going, so that instead of the shortstop making the turn cleanly, the ball was shielded and ended up rolling into the outfield, allowing Revere to score the go ahead run to make it 2-1.

“That’s unbelievable base-running,” Desmond said. “That’s really good wherewithal [by Rollins]. There are probably things we could have done differently, but at the same time, he did a great job of base-running. That was something you don’t see from very many other players.  It was unbelievable instincts. He knew that LaRoche stayed back on the ball and he might have seen how I went after the ball and he broke toward me. But all you can do there is tip your cap.”

Hamels smiles at Manuel during their 8th inning chat on 7/9/13

The Phils led after 7 innings, 4-1.  Then, in the 8th with 1 out, Hamels appeared to be tiring.  He loaded the bases with Nationals.  However, he regained composure to strike out Ryan Zimmerman on 3 pitches, the knockout blow a 93 mile-per-hour fastball.  The next batter was former-Phillie outfielder Jayson Werth, having a terrific year, hitting .295 with 10 HR.

Werth had already homered off Hamels in the 2nd to put the Nationals up 1-0.  Hamels got 2 quick strikes, then Werth fouled one off.  A perennial league-leader in pitches per at-bat (something the Phils always benefited from), Werth managed to work the count full with 3 straight balls.

Manager Charlie Manuel paid a visit to the mound.

“I just said, ‘I’m not here to take you out, I just came out here to look at you,'” Manuel said after the game. “I said, ‘you got him,' and he smiled and said, ‘I got him.’…It was a big time battle."

Then, with the bases loaded, 2 out and the count full, Hamels got Werth to fly out to center field, ending the potential rally without a run scored.  The Phils went on to win 4-2.

"That’s what baseball is all about. Werth came close, but no cigar,” Manuel said.  “[Hamels] threw a heck of a game.  Absolutely outstanding. I liked everything about it.”

Since July began, the Hamels the Phils picked to pitch Opening Day appears to be back.  He is 2-0 in 2 games with a 1.20 ERA.  Hamels has been on-pace to post the most walks in a single season in his career in '13.  However, in July, he has walked 1 while striking out 12.  2 games do not a season make.  After all, poor run support coupled with awful outings put Hamels in a 2-11 hole to start the year.

Still, there's no denying he has found his stroke, and no mistaking what that can mean to the team as they approach the trade deadline and chase the Braves for First Place and the 3 teams ahead of them for the final Wild Card playoff spot in the NL. 

“I have to be accountable,” Hamels said Tuesday, speaking not only for himself but for so many of his veteran teammates. “I didn’t get the job done early. I need to take it up a notch from here on out. That’s what I’m trying to do, push myself to the highest level I can.”

If Hamels continues to display his mojo, it could be huge for the team.

“We have to give it all we can and we’ll rest at the all-star break,” he said. “We know the caliber of team we have. We’ve been underachieving.  I still think we’re one click away from rolling. We’ve got a couple of weeks to really get going.”

Time will tell whether the impressive 7-and-3 run the past 10 days against top-notch teams was the beginning of a run or a swan song before the fire-sale.  Either way, the Phils just got interesting and relevant for the first time this year.

Next up:

Chicago White Sox (36-53, 5th in AL Central) vs. Phillies (46-47, 3rd in NL East)

3-game interleague series vs. Chicago White Sox in Philadelphia, followed by the All-Star Break. 

On Friday, game 1 was postponed due to heavy rain in Philly.

Saturday, July 13th, the Phils will play a doubleheader with John Lannan and Jonathan Pettibone pitching a game apiece.

Sunday, July 14th, Cole Hamels will try to win his 3rd-straight as the Phils attempt to conclude the First-Half of the season with their first winning record since June 6th, when, for 1 day, they were a winning team.

Howard's Pending Surgery, Phils' 2 All-Stars & Big Series Tonight

Brown & Lee will represent the Phils in the '13 All-Star Game.

Ryan Howard will be out 6-8 weeks for pending knee surgery.

An MRI Monday shows that he needs surgery to repair a torn meniscus in his left knee. 

"It could have been much more significant damage," General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said. "We don't want any of our players on the DL. But we know what it is and it's treatable. Hopefully we can get him back in time to play this year."

Backup catcher Erik Kratz had surgery for a torn meniscus on June 12th and already has started a rehab assignment, so he's ahead of schedule.

"Hopefully we will have the same sort of time frame, but everyone's knee is different," Amaro said, comparing Howard to Kratz. "We can only speculate the length of how long it will take to get him to rehab. We'll shoot for the conservative one and hope he comes back faster."

"It was just really hard to move, really felt stiff," Howard said Sunday. "I knew I wouldn't be able to do it. It was more sore than it would normally be.  It's tough because I definitely want to be out there. But at the same time I want to be smart about it."

Meanwhile, the Phils will send Clifton Phifer Lee and Domonic Brown to the 2013 All-Star Game.  Neither player was voted in, but rather appointed the honor by professionals, a more impressive distinction.   Lee, an All-Star for the 4th time in 6 seasons, will be a dark horse contender for NL All-Star starter.

Mets’ phenom Matt Harvey (7-2) has a home-town edge, as the game is at Citi Field in New York.  Harvey leads the NL in S.O. (141), is 2nd in WHIP (0.91) and 3rd in ERA (2.27).  Meanwhile, Dodgers' southpaw Clayton Kershaw is an odds-on favorite, enjoying another knockout year.  Although just 10th in Wins (8-5), the 25 year-old leads MLB in ERA (1.89, the only pitcher below 2.00), is 2nd in the NL in S.O. (129), 1st in WHIP (0.90) and tied for 2nd in CG (3). 

Lee is having his own dynamite season and will compete with these pitchers and more for not only All-Star starter, but Cy Young distinction throughout the remainder of the season.  Lee is unbeaten in his last 12 starts and presently ranks 4th in the NL in Wins (10-2), 5th in S.O. (119), 9th in ERA (2.73), 5th in WHIP (0.98) and 3rd in Win% (.833).

This is both Brown's 1st full big league season and 1st all-Star selection.  Not bad.  

Brown's HR vs. Braves Sunday, another in his season of highlights.

“It’s definitely an honor,” Brown said. “I worked hard to get here. I’m just trying to keep it going.  I always tell you guys I set my goals high.  This definitely was one of them.”

Sunday, Brown received another first-time distinction, one many fans and readers of this blog have been clamoring for all year: he batted cleanup, replacing the injured Howard.

Brown responded promptly with a 2-out RBI triple in the 1st, plating Chase Utley, who had singled with 2-out.  It would prove to be the game winning RBI, although Brown added to the lead in the 5th with a 355 foot solo HR to right, already his 23rd of the year.  

After hitting an accumulative .235 with 12 home runs over 147 Major League games from '10-'12, Brown is batting .281 with 23 HR (#2 in NL) and 62 RBI (#5) this season.

Manager Charlie Manuel paid his only All-Star hitter great praise for another accomplishment: “He’s improved his defense 100%. His defense kind of surprises me more than his hitting, really. I always thought he’d be a good hitter if he made some adjustments, and he definitely did that. He dropped his bat, his hands are lower, and he’s got a good load, good balance at the plate and, of course, he’s got power. He creates good angles with his bat with his bottom hand when he hits, especially on a ball from the middle of the plate in.”

“I’m excited for Domonic,” GM Amaro said. “It’s a great honor for him to be chosen, particularly by his peers. The fan vote is great. The fans want to see the most popular players. But in Dom’s case he was chosen by the players and he deserves it. He’s one of the best offensive players in the National League right now.”

Brown has replaced Howard at cleanup.

Manuel has used 67 lineups in the 89 games played thus far in '13, which speaks volumes about the team's injuries as well as the performance unreliability of its players.  Some players, like Michael Young and Ben Revere have gone hot and cold, while others, i.e., Utley, Howard and Ruiz, have missed games due to injury.

"I'm trying to figure out our best lineup," Manuel said.

After a disappointing series in L.A., which featured a breakout 16-1 offensive romp counterbalanced with several painful missed opportunities en route to a 3-1 series loss, the Phils took 2-out-of-3 from both Pittsburgh and Atlanta, the #1 and #6 ranked teams in MLB.

"I think what you see is we can put on a good run if we can play consistent baseball," said manager Charlie Manuel, one of the few people who has no choice but to believe the Phillies have a summer surprise left in them. "I've always said that during the course of a year you can hit a streak when you can win some games like six or eight in a row. "Ours has yet to come, but if we keep grinding at it, we can definitely win. We've got some guys in our clubhouse who definitely know how to win. I think we've got some pluses going for us."
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20130708_The_fans_have_the_Phillies__number.html#XRy8C5lGVfBFXwXb.99

"I think what you see is we can put on a good run if we can play consistent baseball," said Charlie Manuel. "I've always said that during the course of a year you can hit a streak when you can win some games like 6 or 8 in a row. "Ours has yet to come, but if we keep grinding at it, we can definitely win. We've got some guys in our clubhouse who definitely know how to win. I think we've got some pluses going for us."

The absence of their longtime cleanup hitter is not one of them.

Howard will hope to return this season, as will Roy Halladay, but it is unclear if either player will be able to return or could contribute effectively even if they do.

Howard has been a polarizing player the past few seasons.  It seems to fans that he is always striking out to end innings or games when the team needs him most.  He has become the face of frustration and disappointment for a team that fans feel should be reaching more heights than abrupt postseason exits.

It will be interesting to see the prognoses after his surgery.  It will equally be interesting to see how the team performs without him.  One thing seems clear: Brown is the cleanup hitter of the present if not the future, as well.

Surprisingly, fist beats bat in baseball.

Howard already underwent surgery to repair his left Achilles tendon in October of '11.  Now the Phillies have $40,000,000 in the former MVP First Baseman and the 2-time Cy Young winning starting pitcher on the DL and potentially lost for the season.

However, with All-Stars Brown and Lee, as well as former All-Stars Utley and closer Jonathan Papelbon among others contributing productively the Phils still have a long shot of hope.  After winning the weekend series against Atlanta the Phils are 7 1/2 games out of both the Divisional and Wild Card playoff spots.

Interestingly, Papelbon, a 5-time All Star was overlooked this year.  Likely, it is due to his 4 blown saves in 8 days, because his 18 saves, 0.87 WHIP and 1.82 ERA are among the best of his career.  Notably, his 7.8 S.O./9 IP is the worst of his career.

Utley's production is among top Second Basemen in MLB.

Meanwhile, Utley's being overlooked was likely due to his missing a month (5/21-6/20) for injury, because it doesn't add up any other way.

Brandon Phillips (Reds, .265, 12 HR and 64 RBI) was voted in as NL starting Second Baseman by the fans.  However, Matt Carpenter (Cardinals, .316, 8 HR and 37 RBI) and Marco Scutaro (Giants, .310, 2 HR and 19 RBI) were named by their peers.

Does Scutaro deserve the spot over 5-time All-Star Utley?  Look what Utley has done in 1 month less than his fellow Second Baseman:

Scutaro, 37 years-old: 74 Games, .310 Ave., 2 HR, 19 RBI, .403 SLG %, .766 OPS, 35 runs, 9 errors
Utley, 34 years-old:     61 Games, .281 Ave., 11 HR, 30 RBI, .513 SLG %, .859 OPS, 36 runs, 7 errors
    
The Phillies have an important inner-Division 4-game series vs. Washington (winners of 9-of-last-13) that starts Monday night on ESPN's Monday Night Baseball.  Here's a look at the series pitching match-ups:

Monday, July 8th at 7pm

Washington  Dan Haren (4-9, 6.15 ERA)
at Phils John Lannan  (1-3, 5.15 ERA)

Note: Phils have crushed Haren this year.  Meanwhile, Lannan will have much to prove against his former team, who banished him to the minors during their wildly successful '12 campaign.

Pitching advantage: Phils.

Tuesday, July 9th at 7:05pm

Hamels: 1 million earned for every earned run allowed.

Washington  Taylor Jordan (0-1, 2.70 ERA)
at Phils  Cole Hamels  (1-3, 5.15 ERA)

Note: Jordan has pitched 10 innings, allowed 11 hits and 2 walks.  He's due for an avalanche.

Pitching advantage: Phils.

Wednesday, July 10th at 7:05pm

Washington Gio Gonzalez (6-3, 3.14 ERA)
at Phils Cliff Lee (10-2, 2.73 ERA)

Note: Lee unbeaten in last 12, due for a trip up.

Pitching advantage: Washington.

Thursday, July 11th at 7:05pm

Washington Jordan Zimmerman (12-3, 2.57 ERA)
at Phils Kyle Kendrick (7-6, 3.90 ERA)

Note: Nationals have too many pitchers named Jordan.  Still, this one's really good.  He's #1 in wins in the NL and among leaders with a 2.57 ERA (#7), 0.95 WHIP (#3) and 3 CG (#2-tie).

On the flip side, Kendrick, who suffered a concussion while batting June 30th, has allowed 10 runs on 22 hits in 11 innings since, although he claims, "I'm just peachy keen 'A' OK fine and dandy, Ma."  Then added: "What's my name?"

Pitching advantage: Washington/the guy without the concussion.

The Phils have these 4 games, then 3 more vs. the White Sox, all at home, before the All-Star break.

Writers Play Judas to Chase

"He's been an iconic player for us." -- Amaro Jr.

Chase Utley, Jimmy Rollins, Ryan Howard, Cole Hamels and Carlos Ruiz are the 5 remaining Phillies from the 2008 World Series winning postseason roster.

 "We've been together a long time and we've been through a lot," Manager Charlie Manuel said Sunday.

"We've had a good run," Utley said. "But I still feel like we can win here."

Under Charlie Manuel, the Phillies have always been a second-half team.

Over the last eight seasons, the Phillies have posted a .610 winning percentage after the All-Star break, second-best in baseball.

Their winning percentage post-All-Star Game since 2007 is .630.

That luck may be up.  On the other hand... Utley is back and producing, Domonic Brown is enjoying a torrid breakout season and both Ryan Howard and Cole Hamels can't possibly be as inept and cancerous to the team for another half a season.  Meanwhile, the team has a Cy Young candidate in Cliff Lee and a top-shelf closer in Jonathan Papelbon.  None of that has any guarantee of translating into wins, however, nor has it thus far this year.

"Since I've been here in Philadelphia," manager Charlie Manuel said, "we've gotten off to starts just like this. Here, you don't ever quit, you don't ever get down, you don't ever think you're whipped, stuff like that."

This day last season the Phils were pounded 11-1 by the Mets amidst a shockingly inept 1-and-10 free-fall.  They fell to 37-51 behind a 1-6 cliff Lee on July 13th.

Utley & Howard ignited the '12 Phils to a 44-30 2nd half run.

Then, when Utley and Howard returned during the second half of the season, the Phillies went 44-30 and miraculously pulled to within playoff contention late, only to finish 81-81, 7 games out of a Wild Card playoff spot.

"We tend to play better baseball late in the season for whatever reason," Utley said. "I can't put my finger on why, but it's a fact. And we all want to win."
 
Utley recently batted .368 during a 9-game hitting streak with 4 HR, 2 2B and 12 runs scored.  He will be top prize at the imminent trade deadline feeding frenzy.

General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. will have to decide whether he is ready to let go of short term playoff hopes to begin a slow rebuilding process, which he could jump-start by dealing Utley.

Utley, 34 is one of the most respected players in baseball.  There is speculation he may be traded in coming days.  If he is, his presence on the team would be missed immediately.  He is in the final year of a seven-year, $85 million contract. He missed a month this season because of a strained right oblique and missed much of the previous two seasons because of knee injuries, but he is hitting .282 with 12 doubles, 3 triples, 11 home runs, 30 RBIs and an .856 on-base-plus-slugging percentage. Utley's OPS is tied with Robinson Cano for the third best among second basemen in baseball. His .521 slugging percentage is his highest since a .535 mark in '08.

Utley has led with his actions speaking for him.

When asked Friday if he was entertaining the possibility of trading Chase Utley, Amaro Jr. said:

"He's been an iconic player for us.  My intention would be to keep him in our uniform for the rest of his career, if possible.  I kind of view Chase as a Phillie for life. That's my hope."

However, Cole Hamels had an alternate, more calculated view, one echoed by many around Philadelphia lately:  "You can't keep the same regime forever," Hamels said. "It doesn't last. I think every player gets to the point in their career when they're finally pushed out. That's sports. Organizations want to put winning teams on the field. If you're not able to do it, they have to switch it around no matter how great a player is or what type of qualities they bring. Sometimes a switch-up is refreshing for a business. It's like any business. CEOs leave, and they were great CEOs."

Utley spoke with a veteran's wisdom: "Any time you're at the end of your contract and your team isn't doing as well as it could be doing, your name is going to be out there in trade talks.  I get it. Everyone in this clubhouse gets it. We still have a month to play. We can put ourselves back in contention pretty easily. But we've got to play good baseball."

Should the Phillies trade Chase Utley? Yes. 2330 (49.9%) No. 2342 (50.1%) Total votes = 4672
Read more at http://www.philly.com/philly/sports/phillies/20130702_Now_is_the_time_to_trade_Utley.html#CtHM4qcPpgrUQHBQ.9

Public opinion on whether Utley should be traded couldn't be more evenly split among Phillies fans, as reflected in a local poll:

Should the Phillies trade Chase Utley?
Yes.
	2392 (50.1%)
No.
	2383 (49.9%)
Total votes = 4775

Yet, the Philly press has united behind a singular opinion: trade him and do it now.  While these opinions published in a flurry the past few days do yield to a certain logic, as presented first in my post "Chase Utley Being Traded?" (6/27), it is a disturbing clamor nonetheless.

Utley's famous fake, then throw home in the '08 World Series.

It's understandable that they feel Utley should go.  After all, he is the epitome of the strong silent type.  He is the last person on the field to give a colorful comment and is almost always secretive and almost never quote-worthy.  He displays good baseball intelligence more often than he makes good newspaper headlines.  Furthermore, with his injury absences the past few years, it's easy to tag him as a face for these Phils who aren't producing in the manner we all became accustomed to from 2007-2011.

We are a "What have you done for me lately?" culture.  In that climate, a second straight season of mediocrity, especially contrasted with 5 preceding years of success, can feel like eternity.  

However, the truth is that whatever the Phils get in return will feel like a hill of beans to fans.  A mystified reception would meet the team if #26 is replaced at 2nd Base, permanently, by Freddy Galvis, prior to his elective retirement.   Furthermore, if the Phils get for Utley what they got for Victorino last season (reliever Josh Lindblom and minor league pitcher Ethan Martin;  Martin has yet to pitch in the majors and Lindblom is now on the Texas Rangers), then it WILL amount to a hill of beans.

How will it feel to look at the spot on the field that has belonged to Utley since he won it from Placido Polanco in '04 and know that he is not absent with injury but due to being shipped off to complete his career elsewhere?  Can you imagine Utley returning to Philly to play against the Phils?

"World F-ing Champions" Parade, '08.

One of the reporters insisting on Utley's departure is soon to be 30 years old and, depending on which statement on his own Linkedin account is accurate, has been the team beat writer "1 year, 6 months" or "4 years, 1 month."  Either way, it's a fraction of Utley's tenure with the Phils, a span of 11 years which have been the most successful in team history.

Remember when the 76ers traded away Moses Malone (and Terry Catledge for Jeff Ruland and Cliff Robinson)?  More recently, they dealt Allen Iverson (albeit under his own demand).  The team had to advance, they claimed.  They needed a new identity, much as people are now saying about these Phils.  Iverson was iconic to fans much like Utley is today.  That was '06.  The 76ers disappeared into irrelevant status overnight and have yet to be heard from since.  Fans are still waiting for their "new identity," nearly 10 season later.  Based on the 76ers recent moves to dump salary, it appears as though the wait is long from over.

In baseball, of course, teams are comprised of 9 players on the field at one time, not 5.  The impact of one player is less important in the box score of each game than it is in basketball.  Of course, you can't find grit, work ethic or leadership by example in the box score.  You won't find it on the back of a baseball card and it won't flash across the screen when a player bats.  If it did, when Utley was up, it might read:

".988 grit, .999 work ethic, .990 leadership."

That won't sell newspapers, but it will define the future of the team as young players like Domonic Brown look around them for examples to help define their career as it develops.

Schmidt achieved patience and productivity in his twilight.

The '87 Phils finished 4th in the NL East at 80-82.  It was their 4th-straight year out of playoff contention.  In '86, behind Mike Schmidt's 3rd MVP season, they finished in 2nd place, but trailed the Mets by 21 1/2 games.  In '87, however, Schmidt finished with 35 HR, 113 RBI and a .293 ave.  In many ways, he outdid his own MVP season from the year before, especially since he hit his 500th HR that April.

Nonetheless, the Phils were going nowhere.  The existing team was no longer competitive.  They had outlived their glory days.  It was time to rebuild.  Perhaps they should have traded Schmidt.  At the time he was 37, yet he appeared to be improving in patience and contact at the plate.  His S.O. were down, his Ave. was up and his power numbers and RBI production were on par with peak seasons of his career.

Within 2 years Schmidt would shock the world with what appeared to be a premature retirement.  He would cite his own inability to compete at the level he had become accustomed to as a primary motivation.  At the time, though, he would have garnered some terrific prospects from a stacked team that was playoff bound, looking for that missing corner infielder to put them over the edge to title glory.

In those days, a thought like that would be unthinkable.  Chase Utley is no Mike Schmidt.  He hasn't played nearly the number of games Schmidt did, nor has he put up anywhere near the accumulative career numbers.  What Utley has done is preside over and in many ways drive the greatest era in Phillies history other than, and some argue including, Schmidt's.

If this were 1987, would we be talking about trading Utley rather than seeing him retire as a Phillie?  How much of this objectification of the player is a reflection of our times?

Utley's true worth is immeasurable.

“My plan is to stay a Phillie for life,” Utley said in July of '08, prior to winning the World Series with the Phils.  The following year, '09, the Phils repeated as NL Champs and Utley tied Reggie Jackson for the all-time single season World Series HR record with 5.

The thinking is that the team has to get better, at all cost.  Acquiring multiple younger talent may provide that.  There is logic to that.  However, even if (and it's a huge "if") trading Chase equals more wins, that logic doesn't take into account all the fans' reasons to come to the ballpark.  It takes into account winning and contention, but not love and appreciation.  It's dollars and cents without a heart.  At the end of the day, sports is a dramatic vehicle as dependent on empathetic protagonists (people we care about) to function as successful catharsis as movies or books are.

Utley's true value is as intangible as it is irreplaceable.  He is a rare athlete of the iconic kind, like Dr. J, Mike Schmidt, A.I.  His presence brings his team to another level of relevance.
  
Utley is a guy Philly fans have grown to love, to admire and to cheer.  With him, you have a mediocre baseball team worth building around and routing for.  Take him away, and you have a mediocre baseball team-- plus a hill of beans.