Brown Gives Phils Hope

Brown rounds bases for 2nd time 5/29.

Domonic Brown has finally, officially arrived.  It was well-know that Spring Training brought the seeming coming out of long lauded prospect.  Now the bell has been answered.  Tonight at Citizens Bank it rang four times, twice for Domonic Brown.

On May 26th, Brown was named NL Player of the Week.  In the 3 days since, he has hit 4 Home Runs.

Last week, Brown hit .348 (8 for 23) with two doubles, a triple, two homers and seven RBIs in six games.  In the last 3 games, he has hit .333 (4 for 12) with 4 HR and 5 RBI in 3 games.

Brown looks like the player we were all told he would be, should be, could be.  After years of short, disappointing trips to the Majors, then back down again for a dismal stretch in the minors, Brown is making good on his former #1 prospect status and all those reports that said he was the Golden One.

Now, he looks like a cleanup hitter-- or at least a #5 hitter.  In the last 5 games, Ryan Howard has struck out an improbable 12 times in 18 at-bats.  Amidst yet another injury, Howard is fading, while Brown is swelling.  Brown has doubled Howard's HR production and is showing a veteran's poise at the plate while the veteran Howard demonstrates desperation.  Brown has 35 S.O. to 9 walks.  Howard? 60 S.O. to 9 walks. It is clearly time Brown is given a regular higher slot in the order.

"He'll let me know when it's time for him to move," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said before Tuesday's game. "He's headed that way. Really, I mean that. I've developed a lot of players through the Minor Leagues and big leagues. I've had some of the best players who have ever been in baseball."

Brown-Kratz went back-to-back vs. Nationals 5/25.

"In my head, I always feel like I'm up to the task of being in the top of the order," Brown said. "That's Charlie's decision, and whenever he thinks I'm ready for it, I'll move up. Right now I'm fine where I'm at."

Brown credits a shorter, quicker swing for much of his success.  "Being around guys with short swings," he said. "You can definitely see the difference with guys like Jimmy, Utley, those guys. With that being said, I can get on the plate like those guys. Me being [6-foot-5], longer arms, I've got to be short to the baseball. Just going out, watching a lot of film and being around coaches, it's a little bit of everything."  Brown is now 2nd in the NL in HR (1 behind Atlanta's Justin Upton) and 12th in RBI.

Catcher Erik Kratz has hit 3 HR in his last 4 games and is batting .306 in May.  Brown and Kratz, who went back-to-back in the 2nd on 5/25 vs. Washington, did it again against Boston in the 4th on Wednesday.

With their win Wednesday and the Braves and Nationals' losses, the Fightin' is now 5 1/2 out of First and just a game out of 2nd.  However, there is a key statistic which is troubling:  Atlanta has outscored their opponents by 42 runs, while the Phils have been outscored by 40.   That widens the gap between First Place and, well, wherever the teams that miss the playoffs go.

The Phils are 13th out of 15 NL teams in batting and 12th in pitching.  When Jonathan Pettibone and Cliff Lee aren't pitching the team is 17-25.  Thanks to Lee (6-2, team 5-0 since May 6th when he takes the mound) and Pettibone (3-0, team 6-1 behind his starts) the Phils are within a game of .500.  The last time the Phils were at .500 was all the way back on April 14th, when they were 6-6.

Starting Pitcher Jonathan Pettibone is undefeated.

The Phils could reach .500 again Thursday in Philadelphia, while winning the series vs. Boston with a victory.  Good Luck Charm Pettibone will be on the mound.  Domonic Brown will be at the plate.

7:05 PM ET

Red Sox

(32-22, 15-10 away)

Phillies

(26-27, 12-12 home)

BOS:   Morales (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

PHI:   Pettibone (3-0, 3.21 ERA)

 

NL East Up For Grabs, Phils Add Pitcher

The NL East appeared to be one of the strongest divisions in baseball this year.  Instead, it's turned out to be "Survival of the Least Bad."  After a 12-1 start, the Braves have gone 10-17, dropping like bricks and falling to near .500 (22-18), which is what they do in recent years, but usually in September.  Meanwhile, Washington has failed to step into control in the division, puttering about at around .500 (22-19) from the start with Stephen Strasburg just 2-5.

So where does that leave the Phils (19-22)?  A shell of the team they hoped to be, but very much in contention for the division crown, a mere winning streak of, say, 8-out-of-10 from leading the pitiful pack.

The Phillies are 12-4 when Pettibone, Kyle Kendrick or John Lannan start. They're 7-17 in games started by the $64.5 million trio of Hamels, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee.

Defeat has marked Hamels' starts this year.

Cole Hamels, the Phils 7-year, $144-million star is 1-6.  Worse, the team is 1-8 in his starts. 

Hamels' 4.61 ERA ranks 79th out of 110.  He is issuing 1.6 more walks per 9 innings, while striking out 1.5 less per 9.  His changeup has been fine (batters vs.: .077 average, no HR); however, hitters have been pounding his fastball: 6 of his 9 HR-allowed have come off the pitch compared to 10 in '12.

There is every reason to believe Hamels will come around, as there is no indication he has "lost his stuff" or is plagued by any ill-health.  In fact, entering Wednesday's blowout loss to Cleveland, Hamels was lately the victim of poor run support, having recorded 6-straight quality starts with a 2.41 ERA.

Nonetheless, his troubling numbers and lack of Ace consistency is just one major piece that has not fallen into place for the Phils this season. The regular season is 1/4 done.  Carlos Ruiz, returning All-Star catcher, isn't leading the team.  Rather, after a career year in '12 in Ave. (.325), HR (16) and RBI (68) in just 114 games, Chooch has 0 HR and only 1 RBI with a .234 Ave. through 14 GP, hardly quieting concerns after serving a PED suspension.

Desperation acquisition Delmon Young (OF) has hit 1 HR, Ryan Howard is on-pace to hit just 24 this year (although he traditionally starts slow) and Roy Halladay is out indefinitely with shoulder surgery.

This was definitely not how Amaro & co. imagined it this past winter.

There's no way they expected to be pinning summer rotation hopes on Right-hander Carlos Zambrano, who just agreed to a minor league contract with the Phils.

 

Zambrano 3/9/13 World Baseball Classic

Zambrano will report this week to Clearwater, Fla., for extended spring training. The three-time All-Star hasn't pitched in the majors since last September with Miami.

Zambrano, 31, is 132-91 with a 3.66 ERA in 12 seasons, including 11 with the Chicago Cubs, averaging 14 wins with a 3.43 ERA from 2003-10. He was 16-17 with a 4.66 ERA in the past two seasons.

"We're just looking to add some starting pitching depth and some experience," said Phillies assistant general manager Scott Proefrock. "No promises were made. It's low-risk and hopefully high-reward."  The Phillies signed Zambrano with ample knowledge of his history of combustibility and controversial incidents with the Cubs.  Sounds exactly like the Delmon Young signing, which has yet to pan out.

Zambrano feuded with teammates, management and umpires in a number of high-profiles blowups.

Chicago placed Zambrano on the disqualified list with no pay and no part in team activities for 30 days in 2011. He then told team personnel he might retire.

Zambrano was placed on the restricted list for six weeks and sent to anger management in 2010 after a verbal altercation with then-teammate Derrek Lee.

In 2009, he was suspended following a tirade against an umpire in which he threw a baseball into the outfield and slammed his glove against the dugout fence.

The Phils will be tested starting Friday.  They will play 10 of their next 13 games against top-tier teams: Cincinnati,Washington and Boston (featuring Shane Victorino's return to Philly, May 29th-30th.)     

The Phils are 13th out of 15 NL teams in pitching.  They are 12th out of 15 in offense.  They have not been successful this season.  Aside from individual efforts, i.e., Chase Utley, Michael Young and Kyle Kendrick, this team has failed.  Still, they're not out of it, and that means everything.

If they can come out of the next 13 winning more than losing, they can hang on.  If they crumble under this challenge, well, its only a matter of time until someone makes a push forward in the division.  If the Phils are going to be that team, they have an opportunity to show their life and punch now against some formidable opponents.

7:05 PM ET, Friday, May 17, 2013

Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Reds (25-16, 9-10 away) Cingrani (2-0, 2.89 ERA)
at
Phillies (19-22, 9-11 home) Lee (4-2, 2.86 ERA)

Phils Make It Official

 

The Phils set an infamous mark atop the most losses in professional
sports history in '07, then won the World Series in '08.

A baseball season can be long and uniquely discombobulating.  There are times a team can appear to be floating in space like a disconnected satellite.  Often, it is deceptively unclear where a team truly stands.  Sure, there are the Standings and the Stats, which in baseball and for its analysts are always King.

However, neither tells the tale of a team's potential to move, suddenly, either up or down.  At any moment, there can be a massive slump that leads to a  great fall, like Humpty when he dumped or an unforeseeable 2nd-half climb to Wild Card and then Playoff glory, as has been the case in recent years with teams like S.F., who the Phils play tonight.

Sometimes the not knowing how good or how bad you actually are can feel like navigating on the ocean in a storm without a compass.  You can focus on the square inch of sea before you, but hopelessness and despair can seep in like fog and lead you in circles till you run out of steam.

The '64 Phils are considered the worst collapse ever.

That's the first of two reasons it was comforting when the Phillies dropped 2 at home to the Miami Marlins.  When you look square in the face of an 8-22 team, the worst team in all of baseball and drop 2-straight AT HOME to that team, you have OFFICIALLY HIT ROCK BOTTOM.  You know just where you stand.

The second reason for comfort is the fact that Phillies fans know losing.  It is second nature to our team, a team that has defined losing like no other franchise in organized sports history.



Last summer, the Phils resumed a familiar role.



All of the ups and downs of last season, the offensive woes and power outtages which have been increasing steadily the past few years and the disappointing playoff runs that ended abruptly culminated on Sunday in a demoralizing tapestry of defeat.

Saturday, the Phils took the field at Citizens Bank, the same field where we hoisted the World Series trophy 4 years ago.  I was there.  The stands were thumping so loud and so hard with anticipation of each out that the ground was literally shaking.  It was nerve-wracking, impossible, millions of Phillies' fans personal dreams being realized in the most public of ways on the international stage of a World Title.


The fan who wrote this sign in '08 may want it trashed now.



Saturday, the Phils took to that same field and fell flat on their faces.  They struck out 12 times, walked twice and managed only a single hit.  It was baseball's equivalent of a First Round Knockout.  They had their clocks cleaned and looked utterly hapless and hopeless doing it.  It couldn't have been scripted any better by the team's worst enemies, which is to say that it put a smile on the face of Dodgers and Mets fans everywhere.

You could argue, understandably, because the truth does hurt, that 20 year-old Jose Fernandez, who went 7 innings was just too good.  The problem with that theory is twofold: 

1) Fernandez had never won a major league game going into Saturday and had in fact posted the following numbers in his previous 3 starts: 13 IP, 15 hits, 11 runs, 8 BB.  Vs. the Phils Saturday?  7 IP, 1 hit, 0 runs, 1 BB, 9 S.O.  Bottom line?  Fernandez didn't suck down magic Nolan Ryan potion Saturday morning, the Phils were really that inept. 

2) Once Fernandez had left the game, the Phils struck out 3 times and went hit-less in their final 6 outs.  Two of those strikeouts were to closer Steve Cishek, whose ERA coming into the game was 5.25.  (Also not Nolan Ryan.)  Translation: The Phils were lifeless, down and out, out for the count and whatever other sports cliches you want to tag on to a dead duck.  Their 3-4-5 hitters (Utley-Howard-D.Young) posted a combined for 0-for-10 with SEVEN strikeouts!  Hard to believe.

Sunday, they had a chance at redemption.  They had Roy Halladay, their two-time Cy Young winning ace on the mound.  Halladay promptly surrendered 9 earned runs and 4 walks in just 2 1/3 innings.  Halladay was subsequently placed on the DL.  While it would be comforting to blame his drastic and staggering failure and in turn the team's on his ailing and aging body, the truth is of a less settling nature.  The 3 relief pitchers who followed his foray into a blistering and damning dagger-to-the-heart 14-2 loss to the worst team in all of baseball fared just the same as the injured Halladay.

During the remaining 6 2/3 innings, Valdes, Durbin and Horst surrendered 9 hits, 5 runs and 2 HR to a Marlins team that ranks 30th out of 30 MLB teams in runs, batting average and slugging percentage (they are 29th in on base percentage).  If only the Marlins could play every game against the Phils.  The 4 Phillies pitchers left the game with ERAs of 8.65, 7.00, 6.75 and 6.59.  This from a team that was recently proud leaders in pitching.  Today, the Phillies, who are near the bottom in every offensive category (24th in runs, 25th in batting average and 27th in both slugging percentage and on base percentage), are startlingly 26th in baseball with a 4.51 team ERA.

In short, they can't hit, they can't pitch, and they're old.


Phils presently promising more sleepless nights.

The Marlins came into Philly as the laughing stock of the professional sports world and left with their heads high on just their SECOND WINNING STREAK of the season.  If they could only play in Citizens Bank Park every night, the Fish might be in First Place.  The Phils had a chance, at home, to reach .500 for the first time since they were 6-6 after beating the Marlins on April 14th.  Instead they fell to 4 games under against a team that dropped 9-of-10 to start the year.

For weeks we heard talk from the team and local media that Ruiz and Delmon Young were riding in on white horses to save the season, much like Utley-Howard were expected to do in 2012.  Utley-Howard nearly did, vindicating front office claims that the product they were putting on the field was quality and competitive.  However, the difference between Utley-Howard and Ruiz-D. Young is that the former have MVP and All-Star honors while the latter are most recently known for their steroid use and hate-crime harassment charges. 

Ruiz and D. Young can't save this team any more than an umbrella can stop an avalanche.

Now, we're hearing that shutting down Doc will pave the road to success for the 2013 Phils.  Somehow, we're supposed to believe that deleting the staff Ace, a future Hall-of-Famer who has won Cy Young in both leagues is a great sign of good things to come.  Pardon me if I'm not buying it.

Now, after going 2-4 against 2 last-place teams, the Phils will spend the next 7 games on the road battling 2 winning teams with playoff potential, S.F. and Arizona.  Then, they will return home to host the Indians, who swept them last week and Cincinnati, another top-tier playoff caliber team.



Are these our final days with Utley?

The road ahead is long and hard.  The Phils, old and weak, appear unprepared.  The next few weeks will determine if the Phils will be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline.  I don't think there's any misreading which one they are today.  In short, this may be the last we see of Lee and Utley.  Who knows who else?  Last season, the team parted ways with high salary outfielders Pence and Victorino, each of whom was beloved by fans and is presently playing for a First Place team.  We were promised big name free agent outfield replacements and got castoff bargain basement buy Delmon Young and in-house perennial disappointment Domonic Brown instead.  Both have upside potential, Brown especially, but each comes with not a hint of capital risk.

Now, it seems apparent that the front office had another plan when they passed on adding big names this off-season.  Perhaps they saw the writing on the wall.  Perhaps they read 2012 as the beginning of the end.  Perhaps they saw that the end of 2013 would bring welcome relief in the end of Utley and Halladay's contracts, feeling that the only place to go from here is youth and rebuilding. 

Utley, for his part, has done as much as anyone could ask.  He has played every game and leads the team in HR and RBI. 

The team is still married to Hamels, Lee and Howard.  Lee would be a prize on the open market, although Howard is unmoveable due to his overblown salary.  He is making $20 million this year and has posted virtually the same HR-RBI production as Domonic Brown, who is making $500,000.  Cole Hamels appears untouchable, since he is the darling of team owner David Montgomery. 



Cliff Lee must show Ace-like consistency.

Cliff Lee has been particularly confounding of late.  After a fantastic start (3 games, 2-0, 1.52 ERA) he has surrendered a whopping 26 hits and 13 runs in 18 innings, while the team has lost all of his last 4 starts.

It's a long season.  There are 132 games remianing, plenty of opportunity for turnaround, both individual and collective.  If the Phillies are going to right this sinking ship, it will have to be first and foremost through their starting pitching.  By the end of 2010, management realised this was no longer a hitting team and retooled to unveil the 4 aces for 2011.  The result?  The best record in team history.  Now, Hamels and Lee will have to combine to fill the shoes of fallen star Ace Halladay.  They can, they've even shown flashes of it in the early going this season.  Meanwhile, the Phils will need contribution from Ruiz (.100), Rollins (.236), Delmon Young (.150) or Revere (.212).  They will need at least 2 of those 4 to find life-- and fast.

Finally, there needs to be a reliable long-term middle reliever.  Perhaps whoever they call up to take Halladay's roster spot (Tyler Cloyd?) will stay on in that role.  Charlie Manuel finally has a bridge to Jonathan Papelbon.  He needs at least one reliable long middle reliever during games where his starter exits early or on days when Aumont, Adams and Bastardo (best served in spot appearances or as set-up men) are spent. 

All of that is a tall order.  Can it happen?  With quality baseball intelligence in the Phils front office, fine tuning is always an option via trade and minor league promotion.  However, remember this: the wick is short on the current incarnation.  Whether we are buyers or sellers in a few short weeks is being determined, nightly, on the field.