2012 Phils Hope to Resemble 1979

Sunday, hard-luck Lee fell to 6-8 on the year.

The Phillies season unofficially ended Sunday the way it began last Spring, with limp offense squandering a dazzling display of top-notch, dominant pitching by Cliff Lee (3-1, 0.99 ERA in September, 76 S.O. to 4 BB since July).

Lee S.O. 11 and walked none, while allowing only 1 earned run in 8 innings.  However, the same Phillies who posted 16 runs on 21 hits September 20th vs. the hapless Mets were impotent against Tim Hudson and the playoff bound Braves, posting just 2 hits and 0 runs against him and his unflappable bullpen.

Times like these separate the October teams from the wannabes, and the 2012 Phillies-- despite an exhilarating late-season surge-- now officially belong to the latter.

They closed that gap to within 3 GB over the weekend, but have stumbled, losing 2-in-a-row to Atlanta to fall 5 GB with 9 to play and 4 teams ahead of them for the final playoff spot in a September with zero margin of error, thanks to the corner that they painted themselves into.

On July 13th, when the Phils were 37-51, they were a team without hope, offering little signs of life.

They were 14 games under .500 and 11 GB of the 2nd and final Wild Card spot.

Then, the Phillies went an unlikely 40-25 to rebound as faux postseason contenders.

Now, at 77-76, having presently won 20-of-29, the Phils are precisely what their record shows: a winning ballclub, something they have gotten used to since 2002.

2012 may yet be the Phillies 10th consecutive year of winning baseball.  The remaining 9 games will decide little more than that.

Cloyd S.O. 26 and walked just 5 in his 1st 28 MLB innings. 

However, there have been many signs of hope over the 2nd-half of the season.  Enthusiasm has been renewed in the clubhouse and among the once-beleaguered fanbase, who finally had something to root for this season. 

The injection of some promising young pitchers, like Tyler Cloyd and Jeremy Horst have been a huge part of that.

So has the reemergence of prodigal son Chase Utley and the powering-up of slugger Ryan Howard.

25 year-old Cloyd impressed with 9 S.O., 0 BB and 1 run in 7 innings vs. NL frontrunners Cincinnati on September 3rd and 26 year-old Horst S.O. 32 in 26 innings, allowing just 1 HR with a 1.04 ERA in relief, signaling that some of the team's weakest links, i.e. bullpen, might be strengthened from within the organization.

Utley's comeback has been arresting.  After hitting a HR in his 1st game of the season on June 27th, Utley batted .293 with a .417 OBP in September.  His .451 SLG % is 2nd on the team (to Ruiz's .542).

Now that Utley is learning 3rd base, he promises to be an integral part of the 2013 Phils.


 Howard hit a 9th inning grand slam on 9/20.

Howard, who returned from Achilles heel injury perhaps prematurely, hit HRs in 4 consecutive games from Sept. 19-22 and has posted 14 HR and 55 RBI in just 67 games, which projects out to a 30 HR, 100 RBI season, which the Phils will need from the high-paid slugger in 2013.

Meanwhile, his high-paid compatriot Jonathan Papelbon put together a stellar August and September, lowering his ERA from 3.34 to 2.30,  retroactively justifying his July all-star selection.

Perhaps the most uplifting 2nd-half contribution came from leadoff hitter Jimmy Rollins, the longest standing Phillies player.  After being benched by his manager for lackluster effort, Rollins came alive with a .298, 7 HR September to give him 22 HR and 30 SB this season. 

It was Rollins swagger and preseason prediction that ignited the '07 Phils to their 1st division win in 14 years.

From 2007-2011 the Phillies were NL East Champions.  In 2011, they posted a franchise-best 102 wins. 

So, naturally, hovering around .500, but with a losing record for nearly the entire season, the 2012 Phils have been a disappointment.

However, they are ending on a bright note with promise of competitive baseball yet to come, especially with aggressive management Amaro and co. waiting in the wings to reshuffle and make the kind of acquisitions that have enabled the recent winning ways.

The 1976-78 Phils, led by Schmidt, Carlton and Greg "the Bull" Luzinski, won their division every year.  They posted then franchise best 101 win seasons in '76 & '77. 

Then, in 1979, the bottom dropped out.  A refueled division was won by Pittsburgh, whose 98 wins were tops in the NL and who went on to win the World Series, something the '76-'78 Phils, who lost in the NLCS each year, dropping a sum of 9 of 11 games, had painfully failed to do.

In 1979, it got worse.  They finished 4th instead of 1st and appeared to have ended an era without having even a single World Series appearance to show for it.


The 2013 Phils will attempt to rebound as the 1980 Phils did.

Of course, the following year the 1980 Phillies captured the heart of Philly fans forever with the franchise's 1st World Series win.  Schmidt (48 HR, .624 SLG % that year) finally rose on the biggest stage (8-for-21 .381 World Series, 2 HR and 7 RBI) and there was Carlton being Carlton: 24-9, 2.34 ERA, 286 S.O. and a 3-0 postseason.

So, while the '12 Phils are the 1st to miss the playoffs since '06, there is a lot of promise and renewed enthusiasm inside and around the organization after a terrific 2nd half that did not a season make.

What Amaro and co. do now will be heavily watched and could have tremendous impact.  The Nationals have proven they are for real, even if a Strasburg-less postseason fizzles abruptly.  Meanwhile, there's always the Braves, with 26 year-old Kris Medlen (9-1, 1.51 ERA) the latest in a remarkable line of Braves' starters to lead the team to top the NL.

Heading into the 2012 season, GM Amaro Jr. spent big on a closer, but neglected the bridge between his star-studded starters, who were often injured and underwhelming this season.  That busted bridge accounted for enough losses in the 1st half alone that it could have single-handedly closed the gap between the Phils' 3rd place finish and a playoff birth.

He also relied too heavily on the idea that injured stars Utley and Howard would rebound promptly from their significant injuries to account for a necessary chunk of offense, which instead went missing for the vast majority of the season.


Swisher has hit .160 in 100 postseason at-bats.

A top-notch outfielder and more bullpen help from outside the organization have to be Amaro's primary concerns. 

Shrewdly freeing up salary by parting ways with overpriced outfielders Pence and Victorino was a first step toward filling the gap vacated in 2010 by Jayson Werth.  The Phils will need another power-hitting outfielder if they are to compete in 2013.  Clearly, John Mayberry Jr., despite his promising 2nd half in '11 is not that man with major league consistency.  Despite flashes of his talent in 2012, Dominic Brown hasn't been either.

So, they will need to sift through the slim free agent market or make a trade to bolster their outfield.

The Yankees' Nick Swisher is available, has hit at least 20 HR in his last 8 seasons and is known as a chatty, uplifting clubhouse presence.

The Angels' Torii Hunter and Rangers' Josh Hamilton are available, but devoted to their respective teams.  [Click here for a complete list of potential free agents this offseason.]

The Phillies have risen, a Pheonix From the Flames during the 2nd-half of '12.  Like '06, they began with a fizzle and ended with a pop.  Now the future is theirs for the writing.  It will be an offseason of recharging (Amaro), getting healthy (Howard, Halladay, Worley) and eager anticipation.

Phils Find Magic

When Chase Utley came up with 2 out in the top of the 9th and nobody on, he promptly went into a 1-2 hole: Ball, Strike (looking), Strike (foul).


Rollins is hitting the cover off the ball this month
.

 The Phillies had managed just 2 hits all night, one of those the 43rd leadoff HR of Rollins' career, his team-leading 22nd of the year.  Rollins, making $11 million this year, also leads all Phils (with qualifying number of at-bats) in Ave., OBP, hits, RBI, runs and toal bases and is 2nd with 30 SB.  He is hitting .333 with 7 HR in September.

However, the Phils had managed just 1 hit since his HR in the 1st.

After losing 3-of-4 to MLB's worst team in Houston over the weekend, they seemed resigned to save their fight for next year rather than squander it on the hapless Mets.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers were winning convincingly, 6-0, as were the Cardinals, 5-0 and Brewers, 3-0. The Wild Card picture appeared certain to exclude the Phils with a finality by the end of the night.

At Citi Field, lefty Josh Edgin from Lewiston, PA had just S.O. Rollins and Ty Wigginton on 8 pitches to start the 9th and had Utley down 1 ball-to-2 strikes.

Nonetheless, true competitor to the end, Utley fought his way back: Ball, Foul, Foul, Ball, Ball to earn a walk.


Utley-Howard: For Old Times Sake.

The final pitch was so close that Utley and Home Plate umpire Bruce Davidson stood staring, briefly, then assumed position for the next pitch before someone told them Utley should go to 1st.

Next up, a name that strikes fear in the hearts of Phillies fans, lately. All week long I had been fielding emails in response to my post, "Mr. September vs. Father Time." 

Most of them were about Howard, and they weren't favorable.  The most optimistic fan I heard from was off for a vacation until October 6th. 

Others wished Howard was on vacation, still on the DL or worse.

"Howard... vs. LHP: .167... Let's face it: Ry-Ho is at best a platoon hitter," read one fan, understandably tired of watching the Phils season end with a lame whiff from Howard, swinging for the trees and coming up empty.

In fact, Howard was 0-for-20 vs. lefthanders when he stepped up to the plate against Edgin.

Strike 1 (looking).  Here we go.  Come on Ryan, make us forget the $20 million your 230 AB and 87 S.O. have cost this year.

The scoreboard flashed: the Dodgers 6-0 lead had evaporated.  Their game was now tied, 6-6.



Wednesday Howard defied the odds
and gave Phils the win.

Then he did it.  A 93 mph fastball in his sweet spot, and Howard crushed it, sending it to carom off the front of the second deck in right field, a  373 foot shot.

At 10-3 in their last 13 and 18-7 in last 25, the Phils eclipsed the Pirates in the playoff hunt and now trail only St. Louis (Wild Card place holders, winners of 3-straight, putting it to Houston like Phils ought to have), the Dodgers (2 GB, a 9th inning HR from Matt Kemp gave them a 7-6 win tonight) and Milwaukee (8-2 in last 10, hottest team in baseball).  

Cole Hamels gave it his all with 10 S.O. in 6 innings, but David Wright's 2-run HR stood up until the 9th, preventing Hamels from recording his career-best 16th win.  Hamels has just 1 win since August 18th. 

Wright is now appx. .338 with 4 HR and 19 RBI vs. Phils this year after hitting .301 against them from '08-'11.  

Next up:   Phils go for the sweep in NY in a rookie starters showdown at 7:10 pm on Thursday.  

25 year-old Tyler Cloyd (1-1, 4.95 ERA) vs. 26 year-old Jeremy Hefner (2-6, 4.99 ERA).

The Phillies have no margin for error and zero head-to-head games remaining against any of the Wild Card teams.  Their only playoff hope is to continue to win while the other 3 teams simultaneously lose the majority of their respective games.  Otherwise, all this is for the promise of a better 2013 and has at least made them surprisingly relevant to the playoff picture again.

Mr. September vs. Father Time

The Phillies lost 5-0 to MLB's worst team Saturday night.  The Fightin' won 7-straight before dropping 2-of-3 in Houston.  Never-the-less, they remain just 3 games out of the final playoff spot, but with little time left to close that gap. 

"Tonight was unreal," said frustrated manager Charlie Manuel, after his team went 0 for 10 with men in scoring position and stranded 12 baserunners. "We have to keep playing. We've got to play better. They outplayed us."

The Phillies have 16 games left in their regular season.  16 games to determine if they are playoff caliber.  All that must start Sunday when 'Doc', a shadow of himself for most of 2012, takes the mound to show the baseball world what he has left in the tank this year and perhaps beyond.


Halladay struggled in his last outing on 9/11/12

Halladay (10-7, 4.01 ERA), has won 4 consecutive decisions and is 2-1 with a 1.16 ERA and 2 complete games in 4 starts against the Astros.

However, he struggled his last time out, allowing 7 hits, 3 BB and 5 runs in 6 1/3.

The Phillies will need Halladay to step up Sunday, as they desperately must salvage a split in Houston in a series they ought to have swept.

Meanwhile, 'Mr. September' Ryan Howard seemed poised to live up to his name after returning from Achilles heel surgery in July to post a promising August: .255 Ave., 6 HR, 25 RBI.

However, when his team needs him most, he is presently mired in an ugly month: .189 Ave., 0 HR, 10 RBI

If this keeps up, Manuel should replace him at cleanup with Ruiz, who hit there earlier this year with Howard out after surgery.  Ruiz is 4-for-11 with 3 runs scored in 5 games since coming off the disabled list and is hitting a whopping .336 for the year with a team-best .556 slugging % (Howard's is a paltry .411).


Howard could be a difference maker in this year's playoff chase.

Friday, Howard went 2-for-4 with 3 RBI, offering hope that he may have September magic yet-to-come.  Here's a look at Howard's Septembers past, which earned him the title 'Mr. September':

2005: .278 10 HR, 22 RBI
2006: .387 9 HR, 20 RBI
2007: .260 11 HR, 26 RBI
2008: .352 11 HR, 32 RBI
2009: .288 6 HR, 27 RBI
2010: .280 7 HR, 21 RBI
2011: .290 4 HR 13 RBI


The teams ahead of the Phils in the Wild Card Standings are largely struggling mightily, while the Phillies have been one of the hottest teams in baseball over the past few weeks.

Dodgers' Cy Young defender "out indefinitely."

DODGERS: Despite tying for the Wild Card lead, they are reeling at 3-7 in their last 10 and just announced reigning Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw is likely to miss the remainder of the season due to inflammation in his right hip.

It's a huge blow to a team left with Josh Beckett (6-13, 4.94 ERA) now fronting their rotation.  They also lack chemistry after a recent LA-style team face lift.  Add to their misery that they will have to play, largely on the road, 10 of their remaining 16 games against the NL's #1-3 & #5 best teams, and the Dodgers are beginning to look like a playoff long shot, even though if the season ended today they'd be in.

ST. LOUIS: Tied for Wild Card lead, but dropping faster than lead from a plane.  The defending Champs Wild Card lead has evaporated amidst a titanic team slide, 2-8 in their last 10.  They do have the talent and experience to turn it around fast, though.  However, they will face the #1, #2 and #5 NL teams in 7 of their remaining 16 games. 

PITTSBURGH: 2 games out in the Wild Card standings.  3-11 in last 14 games and must battle top teams in 9 of final 18 games.  Plus, they're the Pirates, so enough said.

MILWAUKEE: 2 1/2 games out in the Wild Card standings.  Enjoying a very impressive 19-6 run with a remaining schedule consisting of 10 top teams in 16 games.  However, 3 of those games are vs. the incredibly shrinking Pirates.  This should be Milwaukee's year.

PHILLIES: 3 games out in the Wild Card standings.  The Phils are on a 16-6 and 8-2 hot streak, which is next to best in baseball, behind Milwaukee.  The Phils will play 9 games against 2 of the NL's best teams, playoff bound #1 Washington and #2 Atlanta.  The Phils are a dismal 5-10 vs. Atlanta this year, but a hopeful 7-5 against Washington.  It remains to be seen whether their hot streak is a mirage, promising a better 2013 or a serious run this year.  The present series against Houston has already been a troublesome hiccup.  They will need to win Sunday and charge full-steam ahead straight through the Mets in NY Mon.-Wed. in order to stake a claim on the 2012 playoffs.

Next up:

Sunday, 2:05 EST

Philadelphia: Halladay (10-7, 4.01 ERA)
vs.
Houston: Lyles (4-11, 5.33 ERA)

Phillies Building a Miracle



Kendrick is 7-2 with a 2.08 ERA since June.


Monday, Kyle Kendrick struck out a career-high 8 and took a no-hitter into the 6th inning vs. Miami as the Phillies continued their relentless run at an unlikely playoff spot.

It's official.  After completing their 5th-straight win Monday, their 8th in 10 games, the Phils are the hottest team in the NL and the 2nd-hottest in baseball (after the LA Angels: 9-1, 6-straight wins).

With the Reds beating Pittsburgh 4-3 in 14 innings and St. Louis stumbling to the lowly Padres 11-3 Monday, the Phils moved to within 2 1/2 games of the Pirates and 5 back of St. Louis for the Wild Card with 21 games remaining.

St. Louis, the team presently holding the 2nd and final NL WC playoff spot is now an underwhelming 4-9 in their last 13, while Pittsburgh, barely leading the Phils in the Wild Card standings, is 2-8 in their last 10 and has lost 14-of-19.

Meanwhile, MLB and NL East-leading Washington is only fairly good at 10-8 in their last 18.  Plus, they just shut down arguably their biggest weapon, starting pitcher Stephen Strasburg, for the remainder of the season.  That decision has brought inner-conflict to the team, but was determined before the season to keep his innings-pitched to a specific number as this is his return season from Tommy John surgery.

Tuesday, Wild Card hopefuls Arizona and the Dodgers battle eachother, while the immediate team the Phils must pass in the Wild Card standings, Pittsburgh, faces the 1st place Reds.  Meanwhile, Wild Card hopefuls Milwaukee, tied with the Phils in wins-losses, take on Wild Card leaders Atlanta.

All of this is good for the Phils, whose hair-raising timing in getting hot in August and September, may just amount to something yet.

The 3rd-place Phils are now 33-21 in the 2nd-half and have won 13-of -17.

Remembering that this year's team lost 11-of-12 from June 27th-July 13th puts that into perspective.



Kendrick has been a revelation, leading all pitchers.
.

 Kyle Kendrick-- of all people, the player most likely to produce a groan from Phils fans over the past 4 seasons-- has been an instrumental part of that success.

"We definitely know where we're at," Kendrick said. "We've got to win every night. But we're in the hunt. That's fun. Hopefully we can make something happen."

However, Dominic Brown, who homered in the 5th to put the Phils on the board to stay, disagreed:

"I don't think anybody's looking at the standings," he said.

Meanwhile, Manager Charlie Manuel predicted the Phillies would have to win 14 or 15 games over the final 21 to make the playoffs.

"We might win all 21 of them," he said, offering one of the few smiles he's had all season. 

Why not smile?  The Phils are playing with house money like it was 2006.

That year, they dumped salary at the trade deadline, acknowledging they could no longer compete-- for now.  Then, the team went on to record the majors best 2nd-half record, only to miss the playoffs on the season's final couple days by 3 games, while finishing with 2 more wins than NL Central victors, St. Louis.

The 2012 Phils, heavily favored and by no one's measure underdogs, are mounting a similar run.

"I think for a lot of the season many of the teams have counted us out," All-Star closer Jonathan Papelbon said. "For a while there we were playing spoiler, and then spoiler kind of dominoed into now-we-have-a-shot. I think we have to get to .500 first."

While they have not overwhelmed anyone all year, at 70-71 they are nearly back to .500 for the 1st time since they were 28-28 on June 4th.

What does all this really mean?

Either that they are proving themselves contenders for next year or that the Phils might make the playoffs in a fashion unprecedented in team history and with a rotation that could compete with anyone, if healthy, come October.

Either way, 28 year-old Kendrick is officially reborn. 

He is now 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA in September, after going a team-best 4-1 with a 2.95 ERA in August.  Add to that his July, 2-0 with a 0.00 ERA in relief, and Kendrick is 7-2 with a 2.08 ERA since June.  He is also 5-1 with a 1.49 ERA in his last 6 starts.

That's best on the starter-studded rotation, better than Halladay, Lee and even All-Star Hamels.

Kendrick is making $3 million this year.  Halladay $20 million, Lee $21.5 million and Hamels $15 million.

Nate Schierholtz celebrates his walk-off single Friday.



 Whether the Phils make the '12 playoffs or not, they have officially picked themselves up off the floor and dusted themselves off for a run in 2013, reminding fans and themselves that there can still be winning baseball to celebrate in Philadelphia.

"I see more life, more get-up and go," Manuel said of the recent transformation of his players.

"It's fun to watch, and I think that's what we really need to stick to . . . just going out there and doing what we can do and win ball games," Cole Hamels said yesterday.

1B/LF Darin Ruf was called up Monday after he led all minor leaguers with 38 home runs for Double-A Reading, hitting a HR every 12.86 times at-bat this season.



Darrin Ruf is Phils All-Time single-month HR champ.

 "I like seeing his swing on television because he has a very controlled, short compact swing," Charlie Manuel said. "Powerful swing. The way the ball came off his bat, he had a good load and a good hitting position. From a mechanics standpoint, I liked what I saw from him."

"He's had an extraordinary year," Manuel said. "Ruf is trying to hit his way to the big leagues. That's what it used to be like. You had to do something to get to the big leagues. Evidently, Ruf is an old throwback."


1B/LF Darin "Babe" Ruf.

 "Charlie Manuel said he wants to get me in there, see what I can do,” Ruf said. “I’m looking forward to it.”

This season, Ruf shattered Ryan Howard's club record for most HRs in a month at any professional level with 20 in August for Reading and set the HR and RBI single-season Reading Phils record.

In 2012, Ruf earned the nickname "Babe," while being named the Phillies Minor League Player of the Year, Eastern League MVP and Rookie of the Year by hitting .317/.408/.620 with 32 doubles, 38 HRs and 104 RBIs and a 1.028 OPS in the regular season and led the R-Phils into the Eastern League Playoffs as a Wild Card.  Ruf hit his 39th HR Sunday in the R-Phils' 5-4 playoff loss to Trenton.

Next up:

Tuesday, September 11th

7:05 PM ET @ Citizens Bank Park

Marlins 

Nathan Eovaldi (4-11, 4.44)

vs.

Phillies

Roy Halladay (9-7, 3.87 ERA)