Thursday, June 27, 2013

Chase Utley Being Traded?

Sticks & Stones may break my bones, but trade rumors never hurt me.
Rumor has it Jonathan Papelbon is heading to Detroit-- or back to Boston.  Phils GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is insisting, daily, that it isn't true, but is quick to add that "Papelbon is the best closer in baseball," which is hard to argue and likely an indication of Amaro's opinion of his trade value more than anything else.

Papelbon, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee have all been quoted by the press making disparaging remarks about the team lately.  Lee and Hamels were quoted showing a keen interest in being on a winning team with no regard to their current one, while Papelbon questioned the ability of (it appears) Ryan Howard, whose 20 HR pace is a far cry from the 58 he posted in '06.  Perhaps management should treat Hamels with the frankness Yankees GM Cashman delt A-Rod this week and encourage him to tighten his lips until he becomes part of the solution instead of part of the problem.

Meanwhile, Chase Utley is being talked about as trade bait.  Speculation says that if the Phils could do it
with Victorino last season on the eve of his free agency, they could do it to Chase, who becomes a free agent after this season.  As with Victorino, if the Phils are not going to pay market value to retain Utley, the logical move would be to trade him now, before they come up with nothing when he walks in a couple short months.  Since they aren't in contention for the postseason now, retaining him for just the remainder of this season would make him a costly short-term rental with little to no upside.

Think of what they got for Victorino last season: reliever Josh Lindblom and minor league pitcher Ethan Martin.  Martin has yet to pitch in the majors and Lindblom is now on the Texas Rangers.  So, while both players were gravy since they weren't going to pay the $13 million a year Boston gave Victorino, can you imagine the Phils dumping Utley for 2 players as nondescript as those?  There might be riots, certainly an Earthquake of boos at the Bank.

Utley's '09 5 HR World Series was historic.
A local Philly poll puts the exclamation point on this fact:

If only one of these Phillies players was to remain with the team for his whole career, who would you want it to be?

Ryan Howard
  192 (7.1%)
Jimmy Rollins
  786 (29.1%)
Chase Utley
  1727 (63.8%)
Total votes = 2705

Nonetheless, reports are that Amaro has been listening to offers for the beloved 5-time all-star 2nd baseman, whose days in a Phillies uniform may be numbered.  One report says that although Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said he didn't see "any benefit" to trading his elite pitching, he did say that if his team sells, it still has "plenty of people to trade." According to a top NL executive: "I think Chase Utley will be on the market."

The Phillies have two potential young replacements for him at 2nd base in Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez. Galvis was just sent to the minor leagues, a move team officials say is to get more regular playing time.  With Utley back from injury, Galvis is sitting on the bench gathering dust.  Meanwhile, Thursday, the Phils signed infielder John McDonald, a 38 year-old journeyman from Cleveland.  McDonald is a solid fielder, but a career .236 hitter, including a paltry 2 for 38 this season for both Cleveland and Pittsburgh.  He has 16 extra base hits in his entire career, whereas Galvis has 12 just this year.

Utley's swing has been described as "textbook" perfect.
The move is curious on 2 fronts:

1) Charlie Manuel has consistently asserted that he believes Galvis is better served being a bench player in the majors than a triple-A regular, so Amaro Jr. is contradicting his manager.

2) The move seems to indicate what no Phillies fan wants to hear: that the team is hastening life after Chase Utley.  With Galvis getting more daily action, he is prepping for a likely unveiling at a regular lineup position.  As a starter for the injury-plagued Phils in May of '12, Galvis logged 102 at-bats.  He had 12 extra base hits and 18 RBI in that month alone (an over 100 RBI projection).  In the field, he was Gold Glove caliber, and Amaro and co. were gushing every day about his future with the team.

If this is in fact the waning days of Utley in a Phillies uniform, however, you can be sure there will be plenty of backlash from fans, who already witnessed departures last season of mega-popular players Pence and Victorino.  Utley, Ruiz, Lee and Rollins are the remaining favorites, with Utley immeasurably ahead of the pack.  A local poll shows Utley's esteem in fans' eyes:

Who is the Phillies' all-time best second baseman?
Napoleon Lajoie (HOF, 1896-1900)
  1035 (7.7%)
Juan Samuel (1983-89)
  645 (4.8%)
Tony Taylor (1960-71, 1974-76)
  928 (6.9%)
Manny Trillo (1979-82)
  1345 (10.0%)
Chase Utley (2003-present)
  9449 (70.5%)
Total votes = 13402
 “My plan is to stay a Phillie for life”-- Utley, 7/08

According to ESPN, Utley's contract would enable him to block a trade to all but 8 teams.

It would break my heart to see him go in a late-career castoff amidst a team in ruins.  My daughter, at age 3, could give you his full injury report. However, you have to think that his career longevity would be better served in the AL, where he could DH for years to come.  This perennial partial season dance has to be tiring for him, while playing in the field has taxed his body and shortened his career.  It has often been noted, publicly, how tiring it is for team management, especially Ruben Amaro, who has demonstrated a mounting frustration with Utley's absences over the past few years.

Utley's immortal words when he was drunk off his behind on live TV at the '08 World Series Parade are vividly recallable: "WORLD F-ING CHAMPIONS!"

The next year, '09, the Phils repeated as NL Champs and Utley tied Reggie Jackson for the all-time World Series HR record with 5 vs. Jackson's former team, the NY Yankees.

Former President and former baseball team owner George Bush Jr. famously picked Utley as the player he would most like to begin a franchise with.  (Ironically, the 2nd and only other player he named was then Blue Jay, now Phillies pitcher Roy Halladay.)


Former Phillies hitting coach Milt Thompson observed: "I don't know if there's a perfect swing. But his is as close to it as you can be. He's amazing, one of the most amazing hitters I've ever seen."

Former hitting coach and longtime Utley manager and admirer Charlie Manuel expounded on this widely held notion: "At times, he can put close to what you'd call a perfect swing on the ball.  It's good balance, rhythm, load, and at the same time getting a ball that you'd like to hit. And just, very slight, underneath the center of the ball. He's a very stylish hitter... Utley’s one of the best players in the game. You sit and watch him day in and day out, and he consistently hits the ball hard. He’s a tremendous hitter."


Utley goes all-out, all the time.
"I think he is absolutely recognized as the gamer in our game," Phils president David Montgomery once said of him. "I don't think there's any question about that."

"He's a gamer," said Jim Thome, his former teammate. "The bigger the situation, he thrives on it. And you can't teach that. Either you have it or you don't."

"I've always been taught to play the game hard," says Utley, who is perennially MLB's Hit-By-Pitch leader. "Baseball is such a tough game, it really humbles you at times. You just have to try not to get too high or too low. The harder you play this game, the more you get out of it." 

“I’ve never seen a guy as prepared as Chase,” Charlie Manuel said. “He’s always early, and he hits every day. He eats it and sleeps it. Puckett for me was the ideal baseball player until I met Chase.  I see how Utley goes about his business day in and day out, how he prepares and how he plays. He’s tremendous — his dedication, his determination... I think he’s the best player I’ve been around, and I’ve been around a long time.”

Utley's defense has more often been an asset than recognized.
One thing is certain:  If the Phils do part ways with Utley in coming weeks or even at the end of the season when his contract expires, it will absolutely be the end of an era, more than losing any other member of the team, except Rollins, who has defined this incarnation of Phillies and its swagger.  Despite his age, the Phils retained Rollins with a 3-year, $33-million deal in '11. Will they do the same for Chase?  Will he accept as few years as Rollins did?  Can he honestly contribute as effectively or play with regularity at this point in his career?  Rollins rewarded the team with a very productive '12, which included 23 HR, his usual superlative defense and an impressive 156 games played, his most since his '07 MVP season.

This is obviously a different team than the '11 incarnation.  The '11 Phils finished with a franchise best 102 wins.  They could afford to keep an aging icon of the squad.  This team is struggling below the waterline to reach .500.  Last season, management made it clear they are willing to dump payroll to protect company interest.  There is no surplus of success to ride on.  It's a belt-tightening time.  The next casualties may very well be Utley and Papelbon and will almost certainly be Ruiz after the season (due to the minor league depth the team now has at catcher).

Utley is not only a beloved Philly athlete, but has been one of its absolute best during his 11 years in a Major League uniform, all for the Phils.  He is a dedicated and active Philadelphian and has given his heart, soul and body to the team and its fans.  Two of my feature posts on him can be read by clicking the links below:

Utley Plunked, Phils Win  - September 3, 2009

With Utley, So Go the Phils - March 10, 2011

There was an article published by CBS Sports Sunday that addresses the limitations of his career due to injury.  It's a downer, but worthwhile: "The Great Chase Utley and What Could Have Been."

Meanwhile, an article this week from SI.com addresses the state of the Phillies as the trade deadline approaches.  The angle is a sobering evaluation of the team, strongly suggesting they should be sellers NOW.  The article can be read at: http://mlb.si.com/2013/06/25/as-papelbon-struggles-phillies-need-for-teardown-intensifies/.

Wednesday, June 5, 2013

DOMONation


Brown's easy smile & powerful swing have breathed life into the team & its fans.

In this world, hype is almost always an advertising gimmick or a sales pitch to whet our appetite and get us to invest.  However, rarely does it amount to anything near its promise.

Sometimes, though, the hype pays off and becomes the very wonder it was made out to be.

For years, we heard about #1 prospect OF Domonic Brown, but we didn't see the results.

Amidst a season of early injuries and too much mediocrity on the field, which follows a season of disappointment and squandered potential, comes just such a payoff, a rare gem of a breakout season, the likes of which comes around once or twice a Century.

Domonic Brown has 10 HR in his last 12 games, tied for the 2nd-most homers by a Phillie in a 12-game span in the modern era (since 1900). Only Mike Schmidt had more, when he hit 11 homers in a 12-game span in 1976.

After garnering NL Player of the Week honors last week, he landed #2 on ESPN's Cross-Sport Power Rankings (behind NBA player Lebron James).

"It's exciting," Howard said of Brown's emergence. "It's exciting to be a part of. It's exciting to watch."

Even Brown's celebrations are making an impact.

Brown and Howard share a ritual handshake when the Howard crosses the plate in front of Brown, who follows with a salute in which he clasps his hands.

"Brown better watch it with that weak act he's pulling after his home runs," said a MLB scout. "He's going to tick off the wrong pitcher and wind up wearing it. There are a lot of people watching who hope it changes soon. It's very unprofessional."
"We won't forget," said a member of the Marlins Tuesday.

"It might have been a little bit over the top," Phillies broadcaster Gary Matthews said. "However, in saying that, I would much rather see him do that than to walk back and put the bat in the rack after a strikeout. For me, to show enthusiasm, that's what it is all about, and it's about time to see some of that."
Thanks to Brown's contagious success at the plate, the Phils have climbed back to .500 for the first time since April 14th at 30-30.

Brown hit his 18th of the season Wednesday in a 6-1 win for a team that seems to have found its legs kicking one of the worst teams in baseball, Miami for a 3-game sweep. 

The Phils now have a 4-game win streak, their best of the year. 

Cole Hamels fulfilled some promise of his own Wednesday to the tune of his $160 Million contract.  Although he was facing MLB's worst offense, he was at top form.  In 7 innings, he struck out 11 Fish, rebounding from one of his career-worst starts last week to record just his 2nd win of the season (2-9).  If he keeps pitching like he did Wednesday, he may make it to double digits in wins by the end of Summer.

Hamels' outing represented the 41st quality start by a Phillies pitcher, more than any other team.  It's a surprising statistic for a team that has so many question marks in their starters.  However, reading between the lines, it also tells the tale of a manager who feels more confident in his team's chance to win with his starters, rather than the Russian Roulette of middle relief at his disposal. 

The Phillies have scored 27 runs in their last four games, all against last-place competition. They have scored six or more in four straight for the first time since the end of the '10 season.

"You have to thank Brown over here for really coming up huge," Hamels said. "I think that's really what has sparked the hitters. Once you have one of your hitters be comfortable at the plate, then everybody starts to do that."

On a night when Hamels fulfilled the belief the organization put in him when they made him the '13 Opening Day starter ahead of 3-time Cy Young winners Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, the Braves managed to steal the spotlight, nonetheless. 

Twenty-two year-old Braves starter Julio Teheran took a no-hitter into the 8th and matched Hamels with 11 strike outs.  He has struck out 55 and walked 15 this year.  Impressive.
 
While the Phillies are enjoying regular fanfare of late over the sudden power they are showing, Atlanta still leads the NL in HR with 79, while the Phils are a distant 4th with a team total of 61. More pertinently, the Braves still lead the Phils by 7.5 games in the division.

The Phils are enthusiastic about winning 4-straight and should be. However, the Braves are on a 5-game win streak and have already completed win streaks of 10 and 8 this year.  The Phils are presently winners of 6-out-of-10. The Braves? 7-out-of-10. It's the old, 'Whatever you can do, I can do better.' The Phils will need to go on a tear at some point to move toward a potential playoff berth.

The Phillies have beat up on the dregs of baseball.  They need to ride this wave of enthusiasm to beat the good teams, now.  They are 14-5 against the Mets and Marlins.  They will not enjoy the luxury of playing Miami again until September.
Brown has Philly pumped up.

Meanwhile, they are 16-25 vs. the rest of baseball. 

The Phils open a 10-game road trip with a 4-game series in Milwaukee starting Thursday.  Milwaukee is in Last-Place at 22-36.  The Phils should be able to win the series.  The test in this series will be to move through their rotation and show some consistency with the bat while blossoming the buds of winning that are beginning to bloom.

Twenty of their next 26 games will be on the road.  If they can put together a lengthy streak, say win 18 of those games, they can make up some ground in the division.  If they win 13 or less, they are likely to find themselves trailing by double digits the way the Braves are playing. 

On May 15th, the Phils were 19-22, but remained 3 1/2 games behind the division-leading Braves and 2 1/2 behind the defending NL East champion Nationals.  Since then, the Phils have climbed to 2nd-Place at 30-30 to pass Washington by 1/2 a game, but have fallen behind First-Place Atlanta by an additional 4 games and now trail by 7 1/2.  In other words, while the Phils have been playing some of their most passionate and exciting baseball of the year and winning, Atlanta has more than doubled its lead over them.
The Braves can hit and they can pitch.  They have young legs and are built for the long haul, which means October and beyond.  The Phillies have become baseball's 4th-oldest team out of 30 clubs with an average age of 29.8.

The Phils will get Chooch and Utley back during this stretch of road games.  That could help.  This resurrected Brown hasn't yet hit with Utley in the lineup.  That should be interesting.

NEXT UP:
Thursday June 6th 8:10 PM EST

26 year-old Cloyd (1-2, 4.76 ERA)
at 24 year-old Peralta (4-6, 5.94 ERA)

Note: 2 unproven young pitchers, should be a hitter's night.  The Phils have the hottest hitter on the planet in Brown, so keep an eye on him.  You know Brewers' pitchers will.

Sunday, June 2, 2013

Is Hamels Ace or Bluffing?

Philly is a city many athletes have cowered from playing in for the toughness with which the fans judge their own players.  Yet there is a unique aura that surrounds Cole Hamels.  Somehow, among local press and team officials, Hamels often gets a 'free pass'.  Team President David Montgomery has made clear his adoration for Hamels.  It is understandable, since at age 24 the pitcher secured the Phils' 2nd ever World Championship.  He was NL MVP, then World Series MVP in '08.  Still, in a town where we hit our own harder than we hate on the opposition, it's uncanny how many sticky predicaments Hamels has managed to escape.

Take, for example, '09.  Immediately following his postseason heroics of '08, Hamels slumped through the '09 season.

On 4/10/09 Hamels had his season debut against the Rockies. He was pounded that night for 7 runs on 11 hits in just 3 2/3 innings. "I'm concerned about him," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said then. "He had a hard time locating pitches. He had a problem with his command, locating the ball where he wanted it."

On 6/4/09 I watched Hamels pitch live at Dodger Stadium. He was brilliant. It was his best outing that year. In 9 innings, he shutout the Dodgers on 97 pitches. He struck out 5 and walked nobody. It was dominance, the kind he had made routine the previous Fall.

By August, however, he was reeling. He recorded no wins that month and in one 2-game span went a combined 10 1/3 innings, allowing 15 hits, 11 runs & 6 BB.

Yet, unflappably loyal manager Charlie Manuel continued to rely on Hamels heading into the playoffs, even after Hamels' dismal season: 10-11 for a 93-69, NL Champion team that was, literally, better without him.

Then, in the postseason, with the team marching toward an unprecedented 2nd-straight World Series Championship, Hamels played a pivotal role in ending the season short of that goal.  After allowing 206 hits in 193 innings in the regular season, Hamels went 1-2 with a 7.58 ERA in 4 postseason starts, getting pounded for 7 HR, 16 runs and 25 hits in 19 innings. 

Ultimately, you have to hold the manager responsible for looking reality in the face and ignoring it in favor of gut or instinct or wishful thinking.  There were other options: J.A. Happ coming off a career 12-4 2.93 ERA year, Joe Blanton, who had helped the Phils win the World Series the year before and had finished the season 12-8 with a 4.08 ERA.  Granted, neither of these were without concern, but bypassing both to repeatedly rely on Hamels that season was worse than insanity, it was suicide.

After all, there was no convincing yourself the regular season had been an aberration, that he would somehow resume his '08 postseason magic when Hamels had already lost Game 2 of the '09 NLDS vs. Colorado, allowing 4 runs in 5 innings, causing the team their only loss of the series.

Then, he had gotten chased in the '09 NLCS by the Dodgers, allowing 5 HR and 13 hits in 9 2/3 innings spread over 2 games.

However, defying logic, Manuel stuck with Hamels in the World Series, the team lost Game 3 and ultimately the series in 6.

Hamels did face a brief backlash from fans after his '09 crushing World Series loss to the Yankees on 10/31/09, when he surrendered 5 runs in just 4 1/3 innings. Hamels infamously told reporters after the game: "I can't wait for [the season] to end. It's been mentally draining. It's one of those things where, a year in, you just can't wait for a fresh start."

The thing is, the season hadn't ended yet.  The Phillies were still relying on him to pitch 1 more game of the World Series that they still hoped to win, so those comments stung deep, were highly publicized and often repeated, reprinted and etched in fans' memories.  They seemed to show Hamels up as the "Hollywood" guy his teammates had tagged him as, but in all the worst, most fraudulent and superficial, megalomaniac ways.

He would go on to call Phils fans: "40% Passionate die-hards, 60% crazy lunatics and fair-weather fans."  That felt personal, like it was him against us.


Still, it was understandable that Hamels felt defeated.  Less than a year after soaring through the postseason with remarkable ease, Hamels simply didn't have the stuff to compete at a high professional level.  That must have been confusing and frustrating for the then 25 year-old.

Loyal to a fault, Charlie Manuel stuck by him.  "This is all part of the process," Manuel said. "This is the first time that things have not gone his way, and he's [struggling with it]. He's never been through this before, and it's something that he will get through and probably be even better."

His teammates stuck by him too.  Well, except for starting pitcher Brett Myers, who had a physical confrontation with Hamels in the clubhouse that led to Myers being shipped off for a handful of gumballs by team President David Montgomery, who sent a clear message: "You mess with my golden child, you mess with me."

“As competitive as he is and as much as he wants to succeed, the answer is yes,” Jimmy Rollins said when asked if he thought Hamels was using '09 to push him to new levels of success in '10. “It’s about how badly he wants to be great. And he understands that in order to be great you have to make sure those things don’t happen again. You have to take away from it 'what not to do' and store it in the back of your mind.”

2/23/10, I wrote:
"Hamels has new pitches, but does he have a new work ethic? ... He has risen and fallen. This juncture is where the great ones separate themselves with big-time performance. This pivotal crossroads is the crucial year in Hamels' career."

Hamels' '10, was everything his manager had forecast. While his win-loss was only 12-11, making him an underwhelming 60-45 for his career, his ERA ranked 12th in the NL at 3.06 and he finished 6th in S.O. at 211, a career high. He had clearly learned from his mistakes and turned a corner-- the right one.

He punctuated his transformation with a knockout '10 postseason debut, 2-0 win vs. the Reds. Hamels allowed 5 hits in 9-innings, S.O. 9 and walked none against the league's #1 offense.

Then, '11 proved the next step in the right direction.  Hamels posted a career high 3 complete games, logging 216 innings, allowing just 169 hits.  He posted career highs in WAR 6.2 (4th in NL) WHIP 0.99 (2nd in NL) and ERA 2.79 (6th in NL).  His win-loss was just 14-9 for a team that finished 102-60, best in team history.  However, you could easily overlook that in light of his undeniably stellar season performance.  He was even an All-Star for the 2nd time in his career ('07 was his 1st).

'12 was the year that secured Hamels the big bucks.   The team was reeling from age and injury and failure to live up to expectation.  They lost the NL East title for the 1st time in 6 years and found themselves well out of the playoffs at a mediocre 81-81, despite being loaded with talented all-stars.  Hamels was a bright spot.  He earned his 3rd All-Star Game appearance.  He posted career highs in wins (17-6) and strikeouts (216).  His HR allowed, WHIP and ERA had actually gone up, while his WAR dropped by 33%.  However, he had emerged as the team Ace and on July 25, 2012, amidst high-flying trade rumors and speculation, he inked a contract extension that made him the highest paid Philly athlete of all time, signing a 6-year extension worth $144 million with a vesting option for a 7th year, which would raise the total to over $160 million.

The Phils had a chance to sign Hamels for $100 million the previous Fall or $115 million in the Spring.

Less than a year later, they paid 75% more for him.  A season of turmoil and failed expectations, especially from aging starters Halladay and Lee, coupled with Hamels' ascent as All-Star, coupled with S.F. starter Matt Cain's $141 million, 7-year deal penned earlier that season helped to create the perfect storm for Hamels' unfathomable cash prize.

In '13, Hamels started game 1 for the Phils as the team Ace.  He lasted just 5 innings against division rival Atlanta, allowing 3 HR and 5 ER.  Hamels is making over $20.5 Million this season.  He is 1-9 with a 4.86 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP and a 66-25 S.O./Walk ratio.  Each of those are career lows.  Alarmingly and almost inconceivably, his WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is 0.1 !  To put that in perspective, it was 1.7 during his previous worst year ('09), while (as stated) 6.2 in his best year ('11).

The 2013 Phils are 1-11 when Hamels starts, which means that without their Ace they would be 26-19, 7 games over .500.  Instead, they are 3 games below .500, 7 1/2 games out of First Place and sinking fast.
     
Hall-of-Famer, Steve 'Lefty' Carlton.
After Hamels remarkable '08 postseason, expectations were unrealistically high.  He was a CY Young favorite by many and was drawing widespread comparison to Steve Carlton both in and out of Philadelphia, which didn't sit well with me at all.

It was true that Hamels had shined in the postseason like few pitchers before. However, his regular season record that year was 14-10 for a 91-71 championship team, compared with Carlton's 27 wins, 1.97 ERA and 30 complete games for a last-place Phils club that went 59-97 in '72.

Frankly, comparisons to Carlton seemed most unfair to Hamels himself. That was Carlton's 6th full-year in the Majors, this was Hamels' 3rd. Carlton was a Hall-of-Famer, Hamels' potential was, as yet, unfulfilled and still unknown.  

People seem to want to make excuses for Hamels, blaming bad defense and poor run support, which have certainly plagued him uncannily this season.

Even Milwaukee manager Ron Roenicke defended Hamels after his Brewers tagged Hamels for a career-high 12 hits on Friday, dropping him to 1-9.  Hamels surrendered 7 runs in 5+ innings.
“It is hard to get a feel because he couldn’t have had worse luck than last night,” Roenicke said.  "To give up four cheap hits in one inning just doesn’t happen.”

At some point, Hamels will have to show more consistency from season-to-season.  It's one thing to have a bad year, even 2.  However, out of his 8 Big League years to-date, Hamels' claim to fame consists of 1 remarkable postseason of dominance ('08) and 1 17-win season ('12).  That doesn't put you in the Hall-of-Fame, even if it gets you $160 million in today's bloated entertainment market.

Hamels will likely return in '14 like he did in '10: better, sharper, more competitive.  '13 isn't even half-over.  There's hope for him this year still.  However, he was unable to turn it around in '09, and this year hearkens back to that one thusfar, after seasons of marked improvement in between.

Yes, the Phils have backed him with a paltry 24 runs in 74 innings this year.  That's 2.9 runs per game.  Still, when you're the Ace and getting paid $160 million, you have to be a stopper.  A stopper does whatever it takes to win when the team is slipping.  That's your Ace. 

Which Hamels will we see Wednesday?
Hamels is coming up absent when the Phils need him most.  Sunday, May 26th in Washington, a day the Phils were 1 win away from .500 vs. the defending NL East Champs, Hamels and his team fell victim to a pair of horrendous and costly errors by Michael and Delmon Young that broke a 0-0 tie in the 7th.  Things had seemed to be going Hamels' way, but then they went dreadfully awry.

It's the opposite when you're in your stride, performing at a high level.  Everything, even seeming chance rolls off your fingertips and lands right where you want it to.  Take, for example, the Braves.  They are doing a lot of things right and have consequently won 5-straight extra-inning games.  Luck?  It is said that "luck is when opportunity meets preparation."  So, let's not be too quick to pin all the bad breaks on anyone and everyone in Hamels' vicinity.

Friday, Hamels had only himself to blame.  Whether it's mental or mechanical-- they say he's throwing harder than ever and being hit harder, they say his changeup location is unreliable and his cutter is getting him burned by the longball-- Hamels didn't get it done.  He gave one of his career-worst efforts, setting a new personal record for hits allowed at 12 (in 5 innings).  Perhaps the weight of 1-9 is getting to him.  He better climb out of it, fast, and regain his potential.  With Halladay, Utley and Howard hurting again and the Braves young and good, he is needed more than ever.