The Phils Are Back & So is Lee

[Picture: What opposing hitters will see; in a 4-game series, an Ace-a-day.]

General Manager Reuben Amaro Jr. called 2010, "A successful season with a disappointing finish,” because they expected to be in the World Series. “I think this one stung pretty good. The players really believed they are World Series champions and they will be chomping at the bit come this spring.”

Well, the time has come. Tomorrow, the 2011 Phillies play their 1st preseason game. So, it's time to evaluate who they are and what we can expect.

ESPN has deemed them the new Yankees. Baseball magazines are debating whether the Phillies will win the World Series or lose it to the Red Sox. So, with a rotation among the best in baseball history, expectations are as high as they've ever been for a Phillies team. After all, this is the organization that began its ill-fated history in 1883 (they're the oldest team still in its city of origin) by losing 81 of its 1st 99 games-- and that was 105 years before starting shortstop Steve Jeltz batted .187 for the season. Now, without having thrown a single pitch, 2011's "Fab Four" [pictured below +1] has already drawn comparison to the '66 Dodgers (Koufax, Sutton, Drysdale, Osteen) and '97 Braves (Madux, Glavine, Smoltz, Neagle).

Best Career ERA
Starter at Citizens Bank Park*

Jair Jurrjens	1.87
Josh Johnson	1.99
Roy Oswalt	2.10
Mike Hampton	2.21
Roy Halladay	2.21
Cliff Lee	2.52
*=Minimum five starts

None-the-less, games are decided on the field, not on paper. When you clear the smoke, what do you actually see? A team that has improved in the one area they had enough of last season: starting pitching. In the playoffs, do 4 stellar starters win you more games than 3? Their middle relief is just as shaky as last year, albeit less necessary, and the one true area that let them down in 2010, their hitting, was downgraded this off-season-- in a major way.

[Picture: Charlie Manuel practicing for contract negotiations.]

"I know Utley's capable of doing better, I know Howard's capable of doing better, and I know Victorino can do better," Charlie Manuel said at the end of last year. "And I know Jimmy Rollins has to do better for us."

The manager's candid critique of his stars says it all about a team once known for hitting that has seen its offensive production steadily decline. From '07 to '10, the Phils runs-per-game dipped from 5.51 to 4.77. Their HR production plummeted from 224 in '09 to 166 in '10. They scored 892 runs in '07 compared with only 772 in '10.

"I can't sit here and ponder what I didn't do this year," Victorino said after his dismal '10 season at the plate. "I look at it as I've got to come back hungrier."

Will the Phils once-lauded hitters "come back hungrier?" Or is it less appetite and more age and opponents' adjustments (like Howard's now infamous inability to hit the curveball, as exposed by the '09 World Series Yankees and cemented by his subsequent '10 postseason outage) that has led to the team's offensive downward spiral?

One thing is certain, they will come back with less firepower:

On 2.23.10, in my preseason post, I wrote: "Jayson Werth-- In his last year with the Phils, Werth can be expected to showoff for the big contract heading into 2011."

The uncanny accuracy of my statement means 1 of 2 things:

1) I'm prophetic. After all, I did predict in the same post that:

a) The Giants would be a "NL Tower" in '10, which nobody else predicted, not even Giants fans. They went on to win the World Series.

b) Roy Halladay would win the NL Cy Young Award (a less bold prediction), which he did.

Alternatively, it means:

2) The Phillies were unsold on Werth so long ago that his departure was merely a matter of time.

In Oct. '10, I wrote:

"What Werth does at bat and with the glove are absolutely invaluable to this team. The Phils are kidding themselves to think otherwise. However, I predict they will let him walk. Remember this: In '08, they made him wait for a starting role in the outfield until late in the season, despite the fact he swatted 3 HRs and collected 8 RBIs in one game on May 16th '08... That year, Werth led the team with a .444 batting average in their 2nd-ever victorious World Series."

For the past 2 seasons, Werth was baseball's most patient hitter, leading the league in pitches-per-at-bat. He also led baseball in 2-strike hits in '10. The most memorable was on 9.19.10, in the bottom of the 9th, trailing by 1, when his at-bat featured 8 pitches: Ball, Ball, Strike (foul), Ball, Strike (foul), Foul, Foul, before he hit a walk-off HR over the centerfield wall to cap a 4-run bottom of the 9th breathtaking comeback before a delighted home crowd. "It seemed like some people left there [at the end of the 8th]," Werth said after the game. "I don't know why you're leaving."

The Phils won 15-out-of-16 and 23 of that 27 game stretch, including 11-straight. They will not replace that kind of spark with Ben Fransisco, back-pain plagued Ross Gload or work-in-progress Dominic Brown.

So how does Amaro the salesman pitch (pun intended) the idea that the '11 Phillies can be better than the '10 team?

"It would be a tough sell offensively, I think," Amaro said. "Let me put it to you this way: Having [that starting rotation], I think, negates the difference in the production I think we'll get from the combination of Ben and Gload vs. Werth."

It's quite possible that an Ace-a-day will keep the losing away for the '11 Phils-- during the regular season. One magazine has them winning 103 games this year. The team record is 101 wins, set in '76 and '77 by Mike Schmidt & co. However, with Werth gone, the aging offensive arsenal will face even greater challenge to fill the towering shoes of their once-impressive stature. You can win 100 games in the regular season and not reach the World Series, something the '76 and '77 Phils found out the hard way. It takes balance and timeliness, as the '08 Phils showed, more than dominance to win a championship. If this Phillies team can put it all together on offense and defense, they could fulfill their potential to be the best team in franchise history.

Perhaps the guy who'll miss Werth the most is the one the team is counting on the most: Ryan Howard, who may suffer without Werth's big bat in the 5-spot behind him. Certainly, pitchers can now pitch around Howard with the comforting knowledge that Ben Fransisco (6 HR) or Raul Ibanez (16 HR) is on-deck, instead of Werth (27 HR).

More troubling is how favorably the numbers posted by the player the Phils ditched, Werth, compare with the player the Phils locked up for many years and mountains of millions, Howard:

2007-09 :

Ave./OBP/SLG

Howard: .266/.363/.565, 136 OPS+, 10 SB / 2 CS
Werth: .276/.376/.494, 124 OPS+, 47 SB / 5 CS

2010 :
Ave./OBP/SLG/OPS/Total bases
Howard: .276/.353/.505/.859/278
Werth .296/.388/.532/.921/295

Reuben Amaro Jr., by continuing the winning he inherited and adding names like Cliff Lee (twice), has managed to sidestep most questions about his sometimes baffling and detrimental choices since he took over at GM in the wake of the '08 World Series win.

Take, for instance, the fact that he traded away Cliff Lee after his sensational '09 season, disconcertingly receiving no quality players in return. The decimation of the farm system has gone undetected by fans, since the winning has continued... but for how long?

Before the '10 season, the Phils signed Placido Polanco (like Lee, for the 2nd time), 36 years old. At the time, I said the guy they should have gotten to play 3rd base was 31 year-old Adrian Beltre, who was also available for comparable money. In '10, Polanco hit below his career average and showed his age by missing 30 games due to injury and enters '11 coming off surgery, compared with Beltre's monster season for the Red Sox:

• Ranked 4th in AL in BA (.321) • Ranked 12th in AL in HR (28)
• Ranked 10th in AL in RBI (102) • Ranked 5th in AL in SLG (.553)
• Ranked 5th in AL in OPS (.919)

Then, there's Jayson Werth, the seeming magic trick of watching his lanky frame hustle down and extend across a field to snag a ball that shoulda, woulda dropped for an extra base hit, but rather ends the play a 'dead ball' in his sure-handed glove. I was at a game at Citizens Bank where Werth threw out a man at home plate-- then, did it again 2 innings later. Werth's color, his heart, his connection to the fans, his bat power, his patience at the plate, his arm, legs and glove will be sadly missed and perhaps more keenly felt than Amaro and co. realize.

However, it is hard to resist enthusiasm for baseball's most alluring team. After all, Cliff Lee is back, and between Lee and Phils fans is nothing but love:

"It feels great to land back here in Philadelphia," Lee said when the Phils acquired him for the 2nd time in 16 months. "I never wanted to leave this place in the 1st place. The intensity that you can feel when you get in the game, it has an elevated feel to it. Compared to everywhere else, it's completely different. I don't know what the fans do to create that much more volume and excitement in the stadium, but it's definitely something extra here. They get excited. They are passionate fans. They understand what's going on. They don't need a teleprompter to tell them to get up and cheer."

Lee, who averages 0.76 walks per 9 inn., added: "To get an opportunity to come back and be part of this team and this pitching rotation is going to be something that is historic, I believe. I can't wait to get to spring training and get this going."

Charlie Manuel: "We get those guys who are our core players, if they can have the years they're capable of having or what we'd call a good year for those guys, our offense can still be very good."

[Picture: Shane Victorino won his 3rd straight Gold Glove in 2010.]

Shane Victorino, whose .259 Ave. in '10 was a career low, said earlier this month: “I’m not one to sit here and make predictions or make bold statements to stir the pot, but I think, if you look on paper, we’re the favorites to win it all.”

Following their playoff elimination by S.F., Chase Utley said he was, "Very disappointed. We had a goal and we didn't accomplish it. But we can still hold our head high. We had a fun season, had a lot of obstacles to overcome. Obviously we still have a lot of talent. The future's bright here."

The Phillies immediate future is unprecedentedly bright, their potential awesome, and the anticipation for their 2011 starting rotation unmatched in team history. Whether or not that translates into a championship season is about to unfold.