It's a well known fact that the core players comprising this beloved Phillies team, which ushered in an unprecedented era of glory that resonates in fans hearts and across the baseball world, is a bunch that is aging rapidly.In fact, it was Reuben Amaro Jr.'s motivation for going after Cliff Lee, Roy Oswalt, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee (again) to offset the team's decline in offensive production since '07. Amaro knows, like the rest of us, that the clock is ticking on this current incarnation of Phillies, one of the only winning ones in the team's vast history. The pivotal stars are getting weaker and more vulnerable by the minute: Big Three Rollins, Utley and Howard, as well as Carlos Ruiz and aged Ibanez and Polanco all faced significant injury in 2009-10.
The question was how far into the 2011 season can this team get before facing injury?
The answer was much worse than anyone could have anticipated. Now, a dark cloud of injury hangs over this preseason. Chase Utley has what could be season-ending injury if surgery is required to repair his ailing knees.
General Manager Reuben Amaro Jr.:
"A lot of questions will come up as to whether he's going to be ready for the start of the season, those sort of things. And, yeah, I would love for him to be ready on opening day, but that's not my biggest concern. Really, my biggest concern, really, is to make sure this player is well and that he's a productive player through the bulk of the season."
Reporter to Utley:
"Do you anticipate playing this season? Do you think this is something that could end your season?"
That seemed a ridiculous question. Of course Utley will play this year, how could he not?! He's Chase Utley, an iron man, indestructible, the ultimate gamer who has played through every injury (broken hand, hip...), returned twice as fast as doctors advised last year, when he was expected to miss 8 weeks for thumb surgery, but returned after 4 and had came back for opening day, despite doctors saying he'd miss 2 months after hip surgery. So, he couldn't possibly stay away from the field now, not for the season. It's inconceivable. Yet, his answer was telling, painfully so:
"Do you anticipating playing this season?"
Utley:
"My goal is to alleviate this as quickly as possible, but still keep in mind that I have a career ahead of me."
So, the possibility that he will have to sacrifice this season is very real and the implications unfathomably horrid.
Make no mistake: the Phillies cannot do it this year without him. Erase all hope in your mind that, without Utley, the Phillies will somehow write their own happy ending. What's that? You'd like to see the proof that this team, with its Fab Four Aces, can't overcome any obstacle, even a season without Utley? OK, on to the numbers:
Wins Above Replacement (WAR), which looks at how many wins a player contributes to his team above and beyond a replacement-level talent.
Over the last 4 years, Utley has been worth 4 to 8 wins more than his likely replacement, Wilson Valdez.
Utley vs Valdez Last 4 Seasons
Wins Above Replacement
|
| Utley | Valdez |
| 2010 | 5.2 | 0.9 |
| 2009 | 7.7 | 0.3 |
| 2008 | 8.1 | 0.0 |
| 2007 | 7.7 | 0.2 |
| 2010 Phillies won NL East by only 6 games. | ||
Since '05, no 2B has more home runs (162), extra-base hits (403) or RBI (572) than Utley.
Defensively, Utley’s absence would be felt as much as his offense. Since '05, Utley ranks 1st -- by a landslide -- among 2B in defensive runs saved at +108 (Mark Ellis is 2nd at +73).
If Utley does require surgery, but postpones it and returns prematurely, as he has done so many times before, will his playing hurt help the team? Take for example, the observations of one scout last year, when Utley posted his career-worst numbers in a career-low 115 games as starting 2B (.275, 16 HR, 65 RBI for a guy who has posted .332, 33 HR, 105 RBI):
“He’s a guy who has always thrived on balls in the lower half of the strike zone — he murders them– and he’s just not getting to them these days.”
Said a rival executive: “He just does not look right to me at all.”
Atlanta must be salivating, the NL East just re-opened for competition.
In addition to concern and empathy for his friend, Jayson Werth must be having a private moment of glee today with Utley's 'situation' headlining the baseball world. Werth was dumped by Reuben Amaro & co. as excess baggage, before Cliff Lee was given the money Werth wanted and more.
Now, Werth's value, in hindsight, has just amplified-- big time. What Amaro wouldn't do now for a big bat like his to save the team. After all, it was largely Werth last season who enabled the Phils to hold it together and stay atop the NL East, when he won Player-of-the-Month honors in Utley's absence for thumb surgery.Today, there is no Werth, just a gaping hole in right field. There are the question marks that Rollins and Victorino have become, there is the cloud hanging over Howard's postseason performance the last 2 years and the ailing health of Carlos Ruiz, Ibanez and Polanco.
Then, of course, there's the media charm of the Four Aces. Well, if nothing else, this season will be charming, but will that charm culminate in a championship? Chase, and his ability to play at or near full-strength, will determine that.
After all, it wasn't starting pitching the team was hurting for in the '10 playoffs, it was timely and consistent hitting, which plagued the team all year. If you delete Werth and Utley from the lineup, even if the Phils still win the division, what does the playoff picture look like? It was Utley whose pump fake, then throw home paved a World Series win and sparked the team to glory in '08, Utley who tied the Major League record for HRs in a single World Series in '09 with 5 vs. the Yankees. His presence is always felt and will be greatly missed, for whatever duration the team must endure without him.
Utley appeared characteristically sober, but also showed he was pained as much by circumstance as by his present physical incapability:
"There is no timetable," he said. "We're not going to look for the short-term solutions. I want to be smart about this and realize that I have three years left under this contract to fulfill... I'm trying to look at this in the big picture, and that's the frustrating part, because I think everyone that knows me best knows that the only place I'd rather be is on the field. So it is disappointing. But right now it's probably not in my best interests to be out there."
