Opportunity is Knocking

Today the Phillies begin a 6-game stretch that could define the first half of their season.  Fresh off their first series sweep of the season against the Mets, the Phils will go to Cleveland, then return home to face Miami.  Those two teams have a combined record of 17-32 for a .347 winning %.

'12 All-Star Ruiz will be back at the plate and behind it.

The Phillies will have '12 All-Star catcher Carlos Ruiz and will likely have '12 ALCS MVP Delmon Young (OF) join the team during this stretch.  They have a rejuvenated Roy Halladay (1.09 WHIP) and a finally up-to-speed with a win under his belt Cole Hamels (1-3, 4.78 ERA) in a rotation that has been led by a dominant Cliff Lee (1.04 WHIP), supported by a strong Kyle Kendrick (rotation leading 2.41 ERA) and boosted lately by fill-in rookie Jonathan Pettibone.

With the starting pitching finally coming around, it's time for the bullpen to shake its shakiness of recent years, which has plagued and continues to plague the team. 

Furthermore, the Phils rank 10th out of 15 NL teams in both runs scored and HR, while they are 3rd in team batting average.  One of the reasons for this puzzling inconsistency is lack of patience at the plate.  When the team parted ways with Jayson Werth, they also initiated a troubling trend.  Werth perennially led the majors in pitches-per-at-bat, which is a key statistic.  It not only tires out pitchers, but enables the hitters to adjust timing and therefore hit the pitcher more easily.  The '13 Phils are 14th of 15 NL and 28th of 30 MLB teams in BB.  That hurts.  It extends the life of opponents' pitchers and puts the team's batters at a rhythm disadvantage.

Nonetheless, 6 1/2 games out of First Place just last week, the Phils are 4 1/2 back now.  Considering their 6-10 start, things could be a lot worse.

This is the time to strike.  The Braves and Nationals, the 2 teams ahead of them in the division, play game 2 of a 4-game series tonight.  The Phils can gain ground on one if not both teams during this stretch.  They will have Chooch and Young join the lineup.  They have upside potential in every way for these match-ups.

The Phils have been losers at home for too long,
and it's not only this guy's fault.

One troubling statistic thus-far this season in the continued trend of losing at home.  In '12, the Phils finished 40-41 at Citizens Bank Park.  In '13, they are 6-8 there and went 3-5 on their latest home-stand.  (Even in '11, when they broke the club record for wins, they won only 2 more games at home than on the road, hardly a home-field advantage).

Obviously, they must change this trend if they are to get back to the postseason.  This disconcerting statistic is supported by what manager Charlie Manuel has defined as the cause for the team's woes: "pressing."  “I think they’re trying,” Manuel said last week. “Maybe a little bit too hard."  The theory being that they are acting from the weight of pressure rather than playing to their ability.  This explanation also serves as a reason for the simultaneous high batting average and low run production.  Their trouble isn't getting hits, it's hitting when they most need to, i.e., with Runners in Scoring Position.

While sweeping the Mets over the weekend, the Phils scored 18 runs on 30 hits in 3 games. Now they must convert that effort into some consistency.  The team's resurgent offensive bounce came after they were shutout 3 times in 8 games last week and Charlie Manuel, who was thrown out of a game, shook up the lineup, splitting Utley and Howard with 3B Michael Young, who is 7th in the NL in hitting with a .352 average.

Sunday it was Ryan Howard again to the pinch hit rescue.  Howard pounded a 2-out, 2-run 7th inning  pinch-hit double to snap a 1-1 tie and put the Phils up for good.  Howard is now 16-for-38, a .421 ave., in his career as a pinch-hitter.  That ranks him #1 in all of MLB among active players with at least 25 pinch-hit AB.

If the Phils can beat Cleveland and Miami, which any decent team should do handily, they could-- and really should-- find themselves over .500 for the first time since they were 6-6 on April 14th.  It all starts now.

Game 1 of 2 in Cleveland is tonight:

PHI:   Roy Halladay (2-2, 5.08 ERA)

vs.

CLE:  Zach McAllister (1-3, 3.52 ERA)

Notes: 

"Roy Halladay is far and away the most important player in the division," one MLB scout said this preseason. "Which guy we see will determine the Phillies' fate."

'12 was wrought with injury and defeat for Halladay, whose 4.49 ERA was his worst in 12 years. His Spring was worse still, then he began '13 by allowing 12 runs in 7 1/3 inning and falling to 0-2.  Hopefully, that was rock bottom.  

"I think coming out of spring training, having short outings, having some poor outings, coming back wanting to prove that I was healthy, my focus wasn't on making pitches," Halladay said.

"My focus was on trying to prove something that necessarily didn't need to be proven."  The two-time Cy Young Award winner has gone 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA over his last 3 starts.

"It's not a boxing match," Halladay said. "It's not strength vs. strength. It's a chess match. It's competition of the mind and execution and being smarter and being more prepared."

Ryan Howard is red-hot after a 4-for-27 start to the season.  He's batting .351 during a 10-game hitting streak and has driven in 10 runs over the last 5 games.