Monday, December 17, 2012

Amaro Sidesteps Best Option to Improve Team

J-Roll was awarded his 4th Gold Glove this offseason.
If you were told in October that the Phillies' offseason additions would consist of: a setup man + a #5 pitcher, an unproven career .278 hitter with 0 lifetime HR and a 36 year-old 3B who hit 8 HR in 2012, would you be satisfied?

Since the Phils 2012 season ended, Hunter Pence joined Kyle Lohse and Pat Burrell as recent ex-Phils to claim a World Championship, while Ruben Amaro Jr. signaled to the world his commitment to stay fast to the plan and write-off the disappointment of missing the 2012 playoffs as a fluke.

NBC Sports 12/10/12 Quote of the Day, Ruben Amaro on signing 3B Michael Young :
“He has all the elements we’re looking for,” general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said. “First of all, the makeup is extraordinary. He’s the ultimate team player. He knows how to play baseball. He’s a winning baseball player. He’s had the opportunity to be in big games in the playoffs and he just fits real well.”
NBC elaborated:

"He later added — and I am not making this up — that Young is a 'professional hitter.' Kind of a bummer because now they have to pay him.
 
Blanton (far left) and Madson (far right) joined the Angels this week.
In other news, it’s a good thing he 'knows how to play baseball' or else it would have been really embarrassing when he showed up wearing scuba gear and asked what all the grass and dirt was for."

That was a non-Phillies fan take on a startlingly lackluster offseason by the Phils thus far.

This week, what Amaro called the one offensive "difference maker" available this offseason, Josh Hamilton signed with the L.A. Angels of Anaheim.  Hamilton was thought to be the Phillies best hope for regaining NL East glory.  Instead, Hamilton joined former Phils Ryan Madson (who grew up an Angels fan) and Joe Blanton (who once pitched for Oakland), becoming the newest Angels players announced this week.

The Phils?  Traded away Vance Worley and their #1 minor league pitching prospect.

In 1,064 career plate appearances, new Phillies CF Ben Revere has 0 HR. That's the most at-bats among all active players with 0 HR and the 5th-most since 1961.

The Phils could now be looking at an outfield of Revere, Domonic Brown and John Mayberry Jr./Laynce Nix.  Yikes!  There's always hope that last season's minor league wunderkind Darin Ruf makes a miraculous smooth early transition to the big leagues, unlike Brown's ongoing epic belly-flop.

So, Amaro Jr. decided not to sign the player that was, in his esteem, the best: "In Hamilton’s case, he’s the best player out there, there's no question" (12/7/12). So, does that instill confidence? Should fans feel that Amaro is serious about winning this year in light of his conservative minor tweaking of a roster that missed the playoffs in 2012?

Ryan Howard had better hit at least .275 and drive in 130 runs this year (last done in 2009).  Chase Utley had better play 150 games and bat .290 with 28 HR (last accomplished in 2008).  Otherwise, a too often paltry lineup in recent years could look mighty lean come April.

Newest Phillies:

Setup man reliever Mike Adams (2012 Texas Rangers):

The Phils lost 16 games last season that they led in the 7th inning or later.  Adams leads all set-up men in baseball in Holds over the last three seasons with 97.

Adams posted a 3.27 ERA with 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings with the Texas Rangers in 2012, his worst full season since 2004, his rookie year. But only Craig Kimbrel, Eric O'Flaherty, Sergio Romo, and Mariano Rivera have lower ERAs among relief pitchers since 2010. Adams (2.06 ERA) has thrown more innings than any of them during that span.  His declining fastball velocity is a red flag. It averaged 93.4 m.p.h. in 2010, 92.7 m.p.h. in 2011, and 91.3 m.p.h. in 2012, according to Pitch F/X data.


Starting pitcher John Lannan (2012 Washington Nationals):

Lifetime 42-52 with a 4.01 ERA and alarmingly horrendous 1.42 WHIP in 6 MLB seasons. He posts a 3.80 ERA if his outings against the Phillies are removed.  He has posted a 5.53 ERA in 19 career starts against the Fightin'. Ominously, Lannan has a 6.49 ERA in 8 career starts at Citizens Bank Park.


Phillies Top Offseason Stories So Far:

Very little could rival the 2011 offseason headline: Roy Halladay saves man in Amazon from death by snake:

What you swim in when earning $25-million a year.


However, "Ryan Howard Narrowly Escapes Own Stupidity" could be seen as danger of a similar magnitude.

Also, there was Jimmy Rollins winning his 4th Gold Glove (2012, 2009, 2008, 2007).  Rollins lead the NL with a .978 fielding percentage.  

His offensive contribution in 2012 was equally significant.  J-Roll ranked 4th in NL in R (102) and 5th in NL in SB (30).  He also led the Phils in HR (23) and RBI (68), making him an extremely cost-effective per market value $11-million SS. 

Rollins, the longest standing Phillies player, is 34 years-old.  There was an interesting article written about him bt ESPN in Septemeber.  If you're a J-Roll fan, check it out: "The Mainstay".






 

Monday, December 10, 2012

Phils Subtract Pitching, Add Powerless Bats

In 2 moves that left area Mathematicians perplexed, the Phils subtracted pitching and added powerless bats, a feeble nod at contending with the spend-happy, Evil Empire West L.A. Dodgers, who continued making waves of a considerably different size.

36 year-old Michael (not so) Young is so totally underwhelming that his signing actually causes more concern than it reassures.   Is this what management really thinks of as difference-maker for this team?  Yes, the Phils needed a 3rd-sacker and yes, he is a veteran presence (as some were quick to note), but in an infield full of old, broke down bodies, is Young really giving the Phillies what they need?

In the trade with Texas, the Phils unloaded two righthanded relievers: Josh Lindblom, who arrived last July in the Shane Victorino trade, and Lisalverto Bonilla, a 22-year-old minor leaguer who had a 1.55 ERA in 31 games between Single A Clearwater and Double A Reading in 2012.

Even Kissing His Bat Didn't Improve Young's Woeful 2012.


The Rangers are paying $10 million of the $16 million Young is owed in 2013.

"He has a tremendous track record," Amaro said. "I know that last year was not his best year but after talking to the scouts and discussing it intently with the rest of our front office, we felt like this is an excellent person to bring to our club.

"The fact that he hits righthanded helps balance our lineup out a little bit as well. I just think all the elements he brings to the table for us are very, very positive."

Amaro alluded to 2012 not being Young's best year, which is somewhat concerning for a 36-year-old player. Young's batting average (.277), on-base percentage (.312), OPS (.682), home runs (8) and RBI (67) were all his lowest totals in 10 years.

Meanwhile, late last week, the Phils acquired CF Ben (no relation to Paul) Revere by trading SP Vance Worley and their #1 pitching prospect, 23-year-old Trevor May. The righthander struggled through most of last season, posting a 10-13 record and a 4.87 ERA at double-A Reading.


Amaro Hopes Revere's The Poor Man's Michael Bourn.

Revere, 24, had a .326 batting average and .383 on-base percentage in parts of five seasons in the Twins' minor-league system (although that's the minor leagues) and batted .294 in 553 plate appearances with the big-league team last season. He also stole 40 bases in 49 attempts and scored 70 runs. He did not make an error while playing 121 games at all three outfield positions. 

He is young and unproven, but with true potential.  However, the price the Phils paid to get him cannot be underscored enough.  When Worley was healthy, in 2011, he was a Rookie-of-the-Year candidate.  The Phils must have decided that after season-ending elbow surgery in 2012, he wouldn't be the same.  Unless they were simply counting on him being another J.A. Happ flash-in-the-pan sensation ready to topple.

Moving May, however, is perhaps less prudent.  The Phils had already ripped the farm bare of prospects, now May is the latest top arm to depart in the mass exodus of minor league talent during Amaro's early years as GM. 

One thing Revere will not provide is power. He has zero home runs and 33 extra-base hits in 1,064 plate appearances.

Young will not offer power either.

In 12 MLB seasons, he has hit a total of 177 HR. He hit 11 in 2011 and 8 in 2012.

Equally troubling is the fact that NL foes the Dodgers made some devastatingly powerhouse moves of their own while the Phils plucked some circumspect singles-hitters to maybe somewhat bolster their limp lineup.

The Dodgers had an active weekend, agreeing to terms late Saturday with free agent superstar pitcher Zack Greinke on a six-year, $147 million deal. They will enter the 2013 season with a record payroll of more than $230 million. Adding Zack Greinke and Korean left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu over the weekend makes the Dodgers the NL front runner for 2013.

Meanwhile, the Phils added a guy to play third who's over-the-hill and hit 8 HR last year.

The Phillies have achieved symmetry in recent years. In 2007, they missed the playoffs. In 2008, they won the World Series. Then, in 2009, they lost it. In 2010, they lost the NLCS and in 2011 they lost the NLDS. Finally, in 2012, they missed the playoffs again. So, it's a perfectly balanced rise and fall. From 2009-2011, they were eliminated in the playoffs by the team that went on to win the World Series.

Now, with a rotation of Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Kendrick, the Phils appear to be in the market for a 5th starter, as well as a power-hitting outfielder the caliber of a Josh Hamilton, a teammate of ex-Ranger Michael Young last season.  Perhaps the Phils will reunite the former Rangers in Philadelphia.