Tuesday, May 17, 2016

Velasquez Hurls Phils to 1/2 Game from First

Velasquez S.O. 2 batters per inning Tuesday.
After Tuesday's 3-1 win over Miami, the Phillies are 23-17 and only 1/2 game out of First Place. Amazingly, only one NL team (MLB's best Cubs) has won more games than the rebuilding upstart Phils.  40 games into the season, the Phillies are defying all expectations for what their ceiling could be, both internal and across the baseball world.  ESPN reluctantly ranked them 13th in baseball, held back from higher because of a combination of their limp offense, poor run differential and the cloud of doubts that linger over Citizens Bank Park.

"We can't force culture to develop," GM Matt Klentak said a few days ago. "But when it starts to develop, we can do our best to let it happen. And that's what's happening right now. It's a young team. They're playing hard. They believe every night that they can compete. Most nights, we do compete."

Catcher Cameron Rupp added: "We wanted to come out and play and have fun. Anything we do is going to be a positive after last year. I think we've surprised everybody."

"Surprise" is an understatement.

Everyone is holding their breath waiting for the Phils to fall back down to Earth.  The strength of their pitching, which ranks 6th in the NL has been something of a revelation.  The quality young arms currently flourishing in the rotation is the best sign for future success of Philadelphia baseball in a long time.  The cohesiveness and consistency of the bullpen is the most pleasantly unexpected success of the first quarter of the season.

The Phillies are 2 S.O. shy of the best in the NL (Washington).

Velasquez made history with a 16 S.O. shutout on 4/14.
Vince Velasquez, who struck out 10 Marlins (including the side in the 2nd) over 5 shutout innings Tuesday, has been remarkable.  “There’s riding life in the zone with his fastball,” Padres manager Andy Green said of him after he K'd 16 Padres on 4/14. “It was explosive, reminds me of when I saw Scherzer going as well as he goes, and that fastball is literally exploding through the zone.”

"We really like him. He's going to be special," Phillies manager Pete Mackanin said Tuesday.

Velasquez is 3rd in the NL in wins (knotted at 5-1 with baseball's best pitcher Clayton Kershaw), 7th in S.O., 6th in WHIP and 8th in ERA.  He'll turn just 23 on June 7th.

And he's not even their best starting pitcher.  Aaron Nola, who coincidentally will turn 23 only 3 days before Velasquez does, is the Phils-- and one of baseball's-- best.

It's impossible to think that anyone, even the Phils themselves, could have conceived of this level of success in the standings at this point in the season before the season started.  Experts are struggling to justify it now when you take a closer look at the numbers: 14-3 in one run games, a run differential of -30...

Yet, the Phils are the hottest team in their division with 7 wins in their last 10 games and find themselves knocking on the door of the Nationals for First Place.

Gomez has been terrific, but can it last?
Jeanmar Gomez has a career ERA of  4.08 and WHIP of 1.40.  In his worst season for his previous 2 teams (Pittsburgh and Cleveland), he posted a 5.96 ERA ('12 with Cleveland) and walked almost as many as he struck out. He should certainly be expected to fall down to Earth.  In fact, the writing is on the wall that he already has.  After surrendering a walk and 2 hits in the 9th inning Tuesday, he recorded his MLB leading 15th save.  However, while his April ERA was 1.80, his ERA in May is 4.05.

Guess who leads the AL in saves?  If you answered Ryan Madson, you cheated.  Madson, who will turn 36 this summer, has pitched just 17 innings for the Oakland A's this year, but has completed 11 saves in 11 tries, while posting a 1.02 ERA.  Last season, Madson helped the K.C. Royals win the World Series.  In 2008, he was instrumental when the Phils did the same.

Tommy Joseph's 1st HR was a "bullet."
Tuesday night, big First Baseman Tommy Joseph batted cleanup for the Phils.  Joseph landed his first major-league hit Monday night when he batted in the 5-spot.  In his first at-bat on Tuesday, he hit his first HR (just inside the LF foul pole, described by the announcer as "a bullet"), then added a single to right in the 4th and a full-count RBI single to CF in the 6th, which led to another run.

His parents were at Citizens Bank for his 1st HR:  "It's nice for them to be here, and I get to share this moment with them," Joseph said.

Joseph was 3-for-3 out of the cleanup spot and the Phils led 3-0.  In his final at bat in the bottom of the 8th, Joseph S.O,. on 4 pitches against Miami reliever Dustin McGowan, but it was a very impressive step up to the #4 spot for Joseph.

Joseph, 24, was traded to the Phillies as part of a return package in '12 for OF Hunter Pence, who went on to win 2 World Series with the S.F. Giants.  The Phillies have seen little return on that trade (they acquired Joseph with Nate Schierholtz and Seth Rosin).  However, after posting a .347 average and a .611 slugging % with 6 HR and 7 2B in his 1st 95 AB of the season, Joseph earned a promotion from AAA Lehigh Valley to the majors on May 13th.  So far, the 6-1, 254 pound (he says he lost 25 lbs. since last season, when he finished with a .193 batting average) 1B has 4 hits in his 1st major league 10 AB and, like so many of the young faces on the field for the Fightin', proving competitive and fun to watch.

Neris has been intimidating and dominant.
A pivotal part of that picture has been 26 year-old Dominican reliever Hector Neris.  Manager Pete Mackanin has said Neris has "closer stuff," perhaps hinting at his future role with the Phils.  In the meantime, Neris has been torching the NL as a set-up man for Gomez.  In 24 innings, he's allowed just 10 hits, has S.O. 33 and boasts a team-leading 0.71 WHIP and now has a towering 75 S.O. to 17 walks in his young career.  Tuesday, Neris S.O. the side on 16 pitches in the 8th to set-up closer Gomez and lower his ERA to 1.50.

Phillies pitchers stuck out 17 Marlins to even their best-of-3 series at 1-apiece.  The deciding game will be played Wednesday at 1:05 PM in Philadelphia.  Jeremy Hellickson (3-2, 4.12 ERA), coming off a shutout vs. Cincinnati will oppose Tom Koehler (2-3, 5.14 ERA), who is coming off 2 excellent outings, including 5/7 vs. the Phils: 7 IP, 2 hits, 1 run, 2 BB, 8 S.O.

The Phillies will have the day off Thursday, before opening a 3-game weekend home-stand against MLB-worst Atlanta (9-29) with ace Aaron Nola on the mound.









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