Phillies' Colossal, Irrevocable Error

Kyle Drabek, the Phillies "untouchable" future ace, major league ready and dazzling to all baseball experts, has been cast off. Cliff Lee, the Phillies 2009 postseason hero, has been permanently discharged.

"It's sad to see him go. A guy who wins 5 games for you in the postseason, you don't want to see him go," said Shane Victorino.

In today's 'live for today, get fired tomorrow' coaching & managerial sports climate, it's understandable Phils GM Ruben Amaro Jr. would sacrifice everything the Phillies weren't willing to give up to get Cliff Lee at mid season, since he made it perfectly clear then-- and even more clear now-- that Halladay is the player he has pinned his Championship hopes on.

It is exciting to add Halladay, one of the best pitchers in baseball today, to the top of our rotation.

However, when you take a step back from the excitement, once the smoke clears, Keith Law of ESPN is right (for once): the Phillies got robbed-- and, in classic Phillies fashion, they did it to themselves.

They had Cliff Lee, they had acquired him a few short months ago for less than anyone thought they could. It appeared that Amaro Jr. was picking up where Pat Gillick left off, making smart moves to strengthen the Phillies. Now, he went and undid all that.

In trading away 2nd tier prospects for Lee, then trading Lee + top prospects for Halladay + a couple low end prospects who aren't even worth mention by name, the Phillies essentially sold their entire future and their current best starting pitcher for... another team's best starting pitcher. It was 1 for 1 + the Phils future, the equivalent of trading one star child for another + all future children.

Philadelphia POLL:

Who would you rather have, Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee?
Roy Halladay
	8697 (52.2%)
Cliff Lee
	7951 (47.8%)
Total votes = 16648 What the Phillies really did was trade: 2008 Cy Young Cliff Lee, who just went 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in 5 postseason appearances and 2-0 against the Yankees in the World Series + future all-star ace Kyle Drabek, the prize of their farm system, their "untouchable" player + future all-star outfielder Michael Taylor + future and present major leaguers Lou Marson (catcher), Carlos Carrasco (pitcher), Jason Donald (pitcher), Jason Knapp (pitcher) and Travis d'Arnaud (catcher). What they got was a 2003 Cy Young winner who is debatably better than Cliff Lee. If you look at the [above] poll, over 16,500 people are virtually split when appraising who is better. The Phils spent an additional 7 players getting him. The Phils loss in this deal is titanic in acquiring Halladay, who ESPN says is "slightly better" than Lee. It is an epic loss for Phillies' fans, who are finally enjoying a winning era, one of the precious few in team history. As Victorino pointed out in his ESPN interview, this is a team with great chemistry, a team that had embraced Lee as one of their own, a team that could've beaten the Yankees any given week, but fell 2 games short of another title. There is no question the price wasn't worth this trade. They had Lee, a top pitcher and ace. What they now have is Halladay, a top pitcher and ace. What they gave up was their future-- and we're not talking distant future. Taylor, Drabek and others are major-league ready. They will be beating the Phillies very soon at the major league level. Surrendering Drabek will haunt the Phillies as he ascends to greatness over the next 2 years. He shined in the Futures Game this past season and is a future Cy Young. He is major league ready now (see my 8.1.09 post: lee nearly perfect in debut projected 2010 rotation of 1) cole hamels 2) cliff lee 3) joe blanton 4) ja happ 5) kyle drabek). The Phillies signed their own death warrant when they made this trade, appearing desperate when they held all the cards. They just won the NL twice in a row. Now was not the time to hit the panic button, sell the farm and swap top pitchers by surrendering the guy who contributed as well as Halladay could have. Lee was 2-0 in the World Series in 2 games, you can't beat that. Even if Halladay is better next year, the price was so high you'd have to be Amaro Jr. to even understand it. This is a sad day for Phillies' fans. NOT INCLUDING (DETAILED ABOVE) PLAYERS THEY TRADED TO GET LEE 4 MONTHS AGO: PHILLIES GET … RHP Roy Halladay (from Toronto) *RHP Phillippe Aumont (from Seattle) *OF Tyson Gillies (from Seattle) *RHP Juan Ramirez (from Seattle) $6 million cash (from Toronto) MARINERS GET … LHP Cliff Lee (from Philadelphia) BLUE JAYS GET … *C Travis d'Arnaud (from Philadelphia) *RHP Kyle Drabek (from Philadelphia) *1B/3B Brett Wallace (from Oakland) A'S GET … *OF Michael Taylor (from Philadelphia via Toronto) * -- minor leaguer

Phils' Holiday Starts with Halladay

Ruben Amaro Jr. wanted only one thing this holiday season, he's wanted it since the summer and he finally got it: Roy Halladay, who just arrived in Philadelphia in preparation for moving day.

Yesterday, there was talk that the Phillies offered Rookie of the Year runner-up JA Happ (who in '09 replaced Pat Burrell as the player the front office most desperately wants to shed) and #1 prospect Dominic Brown for Halladay. Today, they've thrown in staff ace Cliff Lee, who is headed to Seattle as part of a 3-team blockbuster mega-deal. Apparently, Lee dazzling the world on baseball's biggest stage in October wasn't enough to satisfy the Phils' Halladay-hungry cravings. The hunt for Roy was on, once again, and the Phils can finally rest, because they got the biggest holiday gift of all, their dream player.

One inspiration for the trade was Lee's refusal to receive anything less than top-dollar when his contract expires at the end this coming season. Contrastingly, Halladay has said he would not only wave his trade clause to join the championship contending Phils, but would a agree to a long term contract extension and be paid for less than market value in order to compete for a ring.

Halladay and the Phils are presently in Philadelphia preparing a deal that would start after the coming season in which the Phils would pay Halladay $60 million for 3 years: 2011-2013. While that sounds like a whopper, and it is, compare it with Santana or Sabathia, who are each paid $23 million per year, a figure Halladay is easily worth on the open market. Lee seeks a similar deal at the end of 2010 and the Phils don't want to pay it. Meanwhile, Toronto will send the Phils cash with Halladay to help offset his salary this coming season.

Halladay is right-handed, which will give the Phillies balance in the rotation, and he has as good a reputation as any starter in baseball. Still, he is injury-prone, something Cliff Lee is not. He's also a year older than Lee. Lee gave the Phillies all they could hope for last season, when they acquired him at mid-season. However, he saved best for last, posting a record of 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in 5 postseason appearances and went 2-0 in the World Series.

All that is said and done, because Lee-- in his brief stint of a few memorable months as a Phillie-- is now team history.

Halladay, 32, is 148-76 lifetime with a 3.43 ERA. It remains to be announced what else the Phillies gave up (it's rumored stud minor league outfielder Michael Taylor, a top prospect) or acquired in the deal.

Phils Swap Aces

Gone today Here tomorrow

	Halladay	Lee*
W-L	17-10	14-13
ERA	2.79	3.22
K	208	181
Opp BA	.256	.272
CG	9	6
*7-4, 3.39 ERA with Phillies

Polanco and Phils Renew Vows

[Picture: GM Amaro Jr. and old/new Phillie Polanco laugh it up.]

At the same time that the 76ers reacquired Allen Iverson after exactly 3 years of separation, the Phillies again teamed with Placido Polanco after precisely 4 1/2 years apart.

Former 76ers coach Larry Brown said of A.I., "I'm thrilled... I don't think there's any athlete in Philly more loved than him." Phils GM Ruben Amaro Jr. didn't go quite that far in embracing Polanco as his new 3rd baseman (supplanting Pedro Feliz): "He's not only a tremendous professional and a championship-type player, but he's a championship-type person."

It's unclear (other than $, which the Phils claim to have more of to spend) why they didn't sign Chone Figgins (114 runs, .298 Ave., .395 On Base Percentage), the superstar 3rd baseman on the market who just left Anaheim for Seattle to the tune of 4 years, $36 million. Figgins is soaring at age 31, while Polanco is slowing at 34, coming off the least productive complete season of his career (.285 Ave.).

Polanco is clearly a better choice than the underwhelming Mark DeRosa, who the Phils were seriously considering and probably a wiser pick than Adrian Beltre (48 HR, 121 RBI, .334 in '04), who-- despite his significant power-- S.O. 74 times to 19 walks in '09, when his numbers dipped to a new low at 8 HRs and 44 RBIs. Polanco also offers a better S.O.-BB ratio than Feliz, who the Phils let go, but hasn't played 3rd base since 2002, something Feliz did as well as anyone in the league-- not to mention the camaraderie he earned while winning the World Series with his Philly teammates.

In his statement, Amaro Jr. said of acquiring Polanco: "He changes the structure of the lineup."

Does that mean they might move sacred Rollins off the leadoff spot, which has often enabled his success in short stints, but which the team has refused to consider long term?

Victorino (.292, .358 OBP) is an obvious leadoff man, Rollins (.250, .296 OBP, 70 S.O.) not so much. The Phillies would be better served to bump Rollins to the 7 slot, but faithful Charlie probably will not do that to his team captain-- unless maybe Rollins privately acquiesces to his manager in hopes of benefitting the team and winning another ring.

How potent would this lineup look (provided Polanco returns to form and potential in '10)?:

1) Victorino
2) Polanco (618 at-bats, just 46 S.O. in '09, lifetime .303 Ave., .348 OBP)
3) Utley
4) Howard
5) Werth
6) Ibanez
7) Rollins
8) Ruiz

Polanco, for his part, is saying all the right things:

"Whatever Charlie [Manuel] wants me to do, I'd be more than happy to do it. I just know everyone here plays to win. Chase, Victorino, Rollins, Howard, everybody."

However, he also said, "It seems like you could flip this lineup around and it would still be good, you know?" Hopefully, Rollins hears that as a message to him, which it surely wasn't, but should be.

Utley might be thinking, 'I beat this guy out for the 2nd base job in 2005 (when the 2 began the year platooning), I make a couple costly errors in the playoffs and now he's back?!'

Just kidding. Manuel's love for Utley is often professed, highly warranted and well testified. Although, as a competitive mental note, Utley's defense might be inspired by the man who he had to win a big league position from playing one base over in the infield all season. After all, Polanco is a 2-time Gold Glove winner at 2nd ('07 & '09), one of the only things Chase has never accomplished.

[Picture: You can't win 'em all. Utley gets licked by his dog.]

Polanco had nothing but love for the team that cast him out and the teammates who went on to win it all in his absence:

"The Phillies were always my first choice," he said Thursday. "I played here, I know most of the guys here, I know the city. And they have a pretty good team that's committed to win. I thank all of the other teams that expressed interest in me, but the Phillies were always my first choice."

"I always wanted to be here, I never wanted to leave," Polanco said Thursday. "One of the reasons I wanted to come back is because it's pretty obvious the team is committed to winning. And I want to win. That's it. They asked me if I was willing to play another position and I was like, 'Sure.' I can play third base. I played in college, in St. Louis and I also played some third here. I feel pretty confident about it."

Time will tell.