Monday, August 31, 2009

Preview of S.F. Series

With a 7.5 game divisional lead, which is as big as could conceivably be at this point in the season, the Phillies have an opportunity for playing with low stakes and a mind for fine tuning as they keep one eye on the field and the other on October. The Phils host a playoff atmosphere series against S.F., starting Tuesday:

Tuesday, 705 p.m. (ECT):

SF: Sanchez (6-10, 4.27 ERA) @ PHI: Hamels (7-8, 4.52 ERA)

Pitching key to game: Hamels looks to continue his return to form after 8 shutout innings in his last appearance.

The Giants altered their rotation for the series-- after suddenly acquiring Brad Penny on Tuesday-- and robbed fans of a Lincecum vs. Happ showdown:

Wednesday, 705 p.m. (ECT):

SF: Penny (7-8, 5.61 ERA) @ PHI: Happ (10-3, 2.63 ERA)

Pitching key to game: Brad Penny, whose notable abilities have been overwhelmed by injury during a 10-year Major League career, hasn't been effective for 2 years. The Phillies look to pound him out of the game early, as he allowed 17 HRs in 24 games before being released by Boston, including more than 1 per game in his last 7 starts.

Thursday, 705 p.m. (ECT)

SF: Lincecum (13-4, 2.33 ERA) @ PHI: Martinez (2-0, 4.50 ERA)

Pitching key to game: Pedro continues his bid for a playoff spot. So far, he hasn't earned one. Meanwhile, Timothy LeRoy Lincecum is trying to win back-to-back Cy Young Awards at age 25. Fans and players alike think he has the best 'pure stuff' in the game. However, he has appeared almost mortal of late, allowing a total of 8 runs in his past 3 starts. His dominance is as staggering as his salary: $650,000 (up from $405,000 in his 1st CY Young year, 2008). What a bargain!

That NoCal long, stringy hair can mean only one thing: reigning Cy Young Tim Lincecum is coming to town. He is 13-4 with a 2.33 ERA, a MLB-leading 222 S.O. and a chance to show (his senior) Cole Hamels in person how it's done.

Phils Proceeding Royally with Few Blemishes

The Phillies are presently as good as they've been all season, and the team's nucleus is the best Philadelphia has had since the late 1970's-early '80's, if not all-time. This is a team built for October. With a 7.5 game lead in the division and a month to play, even the most worrisome Phillies fans should breathe a sigh of relief (foreign as it may seem). The goal now is to get as good as can be before the Phils begin their 3rd-straight postseason. It's exciting to think that the days of missing the playoffs by a game or failing to land the Wild Card spot on the last day of the season are (for now, at least) behind us, and that this Phillies team can not only compete for a championship, but are defending one.

Some of the Phils oft-overlooked talents were on full-display on National Television Sunday. I'm talking, in part, about Jimmy Rollins' SS clinic for the 2nd straight game. In the 8th inning, he even turned an unusual, masterful double-play on the lead runner, usually an automatic to advance to 3rd in that situation. How about the ball he snatched out of the air, extending horizontal, in the 1st? If you look very carefully at the replays from last night, you can just barely make out his wings: "Rollins shows his range on defense" (click on 5th box under "More Videos").

For all of Rollins' remarkably inconsistent hitting (.167 in June/.313 in July), which has no-doubt been costly from the leadoff spot, he has remained both the team leader and an unmatched defensive force in the NL. Rollins (3 errors this season) will win his 3rd straight Gold Glove this year. When you watch hotshot, All-Star starting SS and potential batting champion Hanley Ramirez (Marlins, .359 with 8 errors) bobble and throw away balls and give away runs like ice cream on Free Cone Day, the value and rarity of Rollins' skills and current 75-game errorless streak at the most demanding position on the field is as underscored as it is too often undervalued. Whether Rollins is hitting .160 or .360, he is invaluable to his team, both in leadership and
getting outs.

In addition to the Phils MLB-best defense, the other under-celebrated star on the team, the pitching, was dazzling last night. In light of the teams' well-reported torrid offense, it's easy to overlook the fact that the Phillies pitching staff has posted a 2.75 ERA over the last 3 weeks. On a night like last night, when the hitters are meager, the Phils pitching really has a chance to shine. When you consider how dreadful the staff was in the early going, ranking at the bottom of baseball, and you consider they play in a 'hitters park', you see their 6th ranked 4.15 team ERA in a new light.

Joe Blanton continues to be the most consistent starting pitcher for the Phils this year, although limp run support hasn't enabled him to amass victories.


Blanton leads the team with 131 S.O., 7.37 per every 9 innings. Since May 21st, he has a 2.50 ERA and has allowed more than 3 runs in a game only once (4 on 6/18). That's consistency and reliability most teams can only hope for out of their Ace, and the elite teams may get from a #2 or #3 starter, but Blanton began the season as their #4. He is currently in the #2 slot behind Cliff Lee, and he deserves it.

Scott Eyre has been a gift, which is in part a compliment to how effectively Charlie Manuel has placed the lefthander. After posting a 1.88 ERA in his 1st year with the Phillies last season, Eyre posted a May, June and August 0.00 ERA for the Phils this year. He leads the team with a 1.65 ERA and Sunday recorded his 13th Hold (his last 3 appearances have been against Atlanta, all perfect). Eyre bailed out Ryan Madson, who got clobbered in the 8th and recorded 0 outs.

Madson's disturbing trend continues, with each visit to the closer role producing a major setback to what he does best, setup in the 8th. Madson has blown 5 saves this year, and his following appearance each time has shown his derailment, accumulating in 5 innings with 10 hits and 6 runs allowed. Those are conclusive numbers, which reveal the psychological impact. Chuck, don't use Madson as your closer anymore ('if it ain't broke...')

ESPN finally got it right and ranked the Phillies where they belong: #2 in MLB. For the 1st time this season, ESPN, who in April had the Phillies ranked 16th in the league, ranked the Phils behind only the Yankees among the elite.

Having shored up their starting rotation (despite Lee's stumble Saturday) and locked it down from middle relief (Tyler Walker, 1.99 ERA, continues to prove a pivotal addition), the well-documented closer quandary remains the team's only real question mark-- that and the 'now you see it, now you don't' disappearing act of Raul Ibanez's offense.

raul-ibanez-bow.jpg
In June, he was accused of taking PEDs with rumors catching like wildfire overnight, even headlining ESPN's front page. He has never tested positive in his 14-year Major League career. So, you'd think he'd take the high road, brush it off with a shrug. I think that would have been more than sufficient for most fans. However, Ibanez exploded publicly (Ibanez incident in full) and appears to have imploded, personally. Most unnervingly, the well-advertised accusations about his numbers being reflective of PEDs corresponded almost script-like with 1) his elective move to the DL and 2) his wildly contrasting offensive productivity. Whatever the reason, the left fielder's decline has been monstrous:

Ibanez hit .359 in April and .312 in May with 17 HRs and 46 RBIs, a regular on highlight reels and perennial Player of the Week. In his 1st full month back from the DL, Aug., he batted .193 with only 1 HR and 4 RBIs. That is a shocking decline for him this season and contrasts unfavorably with his outfield counterpart, Jayson Werth, who had 7 HRs and 23 RBIs last month.

Ibanez is no Gold Glover at his position. The Phillies knew that when they acquired him, so he really needs to hit to perform. True, Ibanez's uncharacteristically dynamic April and May at the plate have his numbers right around his career averages (with an increase in HRs, a slight dip in average and a downward trend in RBIs), but the Phils are going to need his early season magic back by the end of September if he's going to aid their effort to win the Championship, which would be the Phils' 2nd consecutive and the 1st of Ibanez's career.

notes:

Bullpen injustice

As much as I respect his contribution to the Phillies' success in the 1st half of 2008, reliever Chad Durbin continues to support my claim that he has not earned a roster spot with the team since. In my post on 8.7.09, "Bullpen Justice," I wrote:

"Am I the only one who has noticed that Chad Durbin hasn't pitched well enough to be in our bullpen? Durbin has walked 33 in 48 innings. More troubling, Durbin hasn't been reliably effective since July of 2008, over a year ago. In Aug. '08, his ERA was 4.32. In September, it was 6.94."

Well, Durbin finished August with a 10.13 ERA, after posting a 6.75 ERA in July. There is no upward trend for him, having allowed 4 ER in his last 2 innings of work.

Future looks bright

Further sign that the Phils inte
nd to insert Drabek in the starting rotation next season:

"Double-A Reading righthander Kyle Drabek, generally regarded as the Phillies' best pitching prospect, will not be called up after roster limits are expanded Tuesday.

In fact, the team announced Sunday that he has been shut down for the remainder of the season.

The announcement stressed that Drabek is not injured but that this was instead a “proactive” move to protect a 21-year-old who has already thrown 158 innings between Class A Clearwater and Reading this season (61.2 at Clearwater and 96.1 at Reading)."

Thursday, August 27, 2009

Pesky Pirates Plunder Phils, Thwart Happ

J.A. Happ delvers a pitch in the first inning at PETCO Park.J.A. Happ
James Anthony Happ is a lead Rookie of the Year
candidate, but faces mounting competition.

Although he allowed 10 runs in 1 inning on 8/14, Charlie Morton handcuffed the Phils Thursday, with the exception of Rollins' 3 hits and Paul Bako's 4-4 on-base game (which pushed his average to the limit at .194). I guess when you load the bases with nobody out in the 1st against lowly Pittsburgh and muster only 1 run, you kind of deserve to lose, right? The same can't be said of Happ, whose 2 bad pitches and lackluster run support landed him just his 3rd loss of the season. He is 10-3.

"He pitched a hell of a game," Charlie Manuel said. "I can't say enough about his game. . . . He pitched too good to lose."

"He was outstanding," said Utley. "That home run was disappointing, but overall he should be proud of how he pitched."

Each outing is now precious for Happ if he wants to be NL Rookie of the Year. Among those nipping at his heels is 23 year-old Braves hurler Tommy Hanson, who is 9-2 with a 3.12 ERA, 4-0 with a 2.81 ERA in August. The Phils will have a chance to help Happ's campaign by beating Hanson on Friday, when they open a series against the Braves that could prove pivotal if they play like they did in Pittsburgh.

The Phils managed to drop 2 of 3 in Pittsburgh, despite late game leads, and even needed extra-innings to avoid a sweep. That can mean only one thing, kiddies: finals week is over and it's... you guessed it: senioritis. No, not older folks forgetting things. I'm referring to the other senioritis. I found this fitting definition:

"Senioritis-- [noun.] A crippling disease that strikes high school seniors. Symptoms include: laziness, an over-excessive wearing of track pants, old athletic shirts, sweatpants, athletic shorts, and sweatshirts. Also features a lack of studying, repeated absences, and a generally dismissive attitude. The only known cure is a phenomenon known as Graduation."

For the Phils, "graduation" will come in just over a month, when they are unleashed for the playoffs. Here's hoping they sort their closer catastrophe before then. But, dude, relax. The Braves just lost 2 of 3 to the helpless Padres (including a 12-5 drubbing yesterday), while the Marlins were getting crushed tonight, 10-3, by the N.Y. Mets (who had lost 5-straight prior) and pitcher Tim Redding, whose previous 8 starts had resulted in a loss.

So, no need to worry, bro., the lead is still 7 games. Just pass a brew, will ya? Hey, did you catch Ryan Howard talking fav. tunes on ESPN, while Jimmy Rollins giggled uncontrollably in the background? Howard and Rollins clowning-- and, oh yeah, is there a 3-game series against the Braves or something?

By the way, if you missed Rollins' remarkable play to save a run in the 5th inning Thursday, you have to see it twice to believe it. Here's proof that while Howard may be Superman, Rollins is both faster than the speed-of-light and en route to his 3rd-straight Gold Glove: Snag from thin air.

notes:

Roy Halladay Currently bombing at new lows Cliff Lee Now soaring to new heights

Checked in with Roy Halladay, lately? Doc is indisputably great. However, while Cliff Lee has gone 8-0 in his last 8 starts and compiled a 0.68 ERA for the Phils, Halladay is 2-3 with a 4.50 ERA and a .320 opponent batting average since 7/29. Aren't you glad he isn't posting those kind of numbers for us? It's the relationship that could have been, but now you're with someone better and can stop looking over your shoulder-- at least until Lee's 1st imperfect game (we are Philly fans, after all, what's baseball without regret?).

What do Eric Milton, Randy Wolf and Vicente Padilla and have in common? They've all been starting pitchers for the Phillies and, this season, the Dodgers. The Dodgers are thankful for Wolf and Padilla, as they would now be tied for 1st place without them. Wolf stemmed the tide of their losing ways on Wednesday and Padilla won for them Thursday in a key series against red-hot division rivals Colorado.

Wednesday, August 26, 2009

Closer Quandary

Ryan Howard's latest HR won the game in the 10th inning Wednesday night and got Ryan Madson off the hook. Howard now has 7 HRs and 20 RBIs in his last 10 games.

It's broke, and the Phillies have to fix it. I'm talking, of course, about the closer dilemma. Brad Lidge did it again Tuesday night, recorded his 9th MLB-leading blown save, pushed his record to 0-6 and his ERA to 7.33, the highest its been since June.

Clearly, something must be done. The question is what-- or, more specifically, who and when? A couple of recent developments have cast a strange light upon the drama and further fueled the quandary (that's "quandary," not "Condrey," he's still on the DL).

First of all, the Mets essentially released closer Billy Wagner, the former Phillies All-Star closer. Strangely, the Phillies showed absolutely no interest in him, despite the obvious need they have and the shockingly low price tag he carried (no players, only cash, which the Phils seem perfectly happy to throw at virtually retired available starting pitchers nearing 40).

Personally, I loathe Wagner. I'd like to think his attitude is why the Phillies showed no interest in him this week, but I doubt it very much. I will always remember his days as a Phil, but less for his accomplishments-- after all, we weren't today's powerhouse during his tenure, so the team never made a lasting mark. Rather, I will remember Wagner as the guy calling for (then manager) Larry Bowa's head, claiming the team couldn't win with Bowa around.

Then, when Wagner returned to the Phillies the following season, sans one controversial manager (Bowa), Wagner went to the press and on record as claiming that the entire Phillies team was "a bunch of losers." So, I guess Bowa should be comforted that he was, in Wagner's eyes, in good company. So, where did that put Wagner? A Lone Ranger winner in a world of losers? Well, looks like he took the losing bug with him to the Mets and left us to soar to new heights in his absence. In essence, he did the Phils a favor and proved that he, not they, was the Biggest Loser.

The second occurrence this week came when Lidge blew the save and lost the game in the 9th inning on Tuesday night. In a postgame interview, Charlie Manuel said: "We've got to stay with him, he's got to keep going. What the hell? That's all we can do."

The following night, Manuel curiously did just the opposite. Once again in a save situation in the 9th inning vs. Pittsburgh, Manuel gave the ball, instead, to Ryan Madson. Madson promptly blew the save, his preposterous, staggering 5th blown save in 9 attempts this year! Remarkably, Madson is 4 for 9 in saves. That means Lidge and Madson are a combined 29 for 43 in save attempts, having coughed up 14 saves this year between them. More amazingly, Madson's reliability as a closer makes Lidge look, well, reliable. That's scary.

Hopefully, the Phils didn't mess up Madson this time around. Last time they tried him out as closer, during Lidge's DL stint in June, it took him all of July to fumble his way back to form, until he had recorded a 0.84 ERA in August. Hopefully, tonight didn't change all that. The Phils went back to him as a closer and the results were unchanged. Time will tell if he survives this bump in the road.

Time is not on the Phillies side. Now, they must choose between alternatives, each of which carries a big question mark-- and with only a month left to play games before season #2 in October launches. It's an awkward time to bring in Myers, who hasn't pitched since 5/27 and cast the bright lights of closerdom back on his uneven shoulders. It's an equally dangerous time to gamble on Chan Ho Park or Scott Eyre in a role they are neither experienced at or suited for, although if it's going to be trial and error, now is that time. After all, the division lead is 7 games.

So, where does that put the Phillies in their need for a closer? Well... Hey, I heard Billy Wagner is available. Oh, he's spoken for? Well, just as good, I don't see how he could stake his claim that Charlie & co. are a bunch of losers, seeing as how they are the defending World Champs.

notes:

Cole Hamels may be onto something. Hamels had gone 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA since July 28th, including a combined 10 BB & 8 S.O. in 3 of those games, totally uncharacteristic for Hamels. Wednesday night, he threw a season-high 123 pitches. Still, with 7 S.O. and only 2 B.B., coupled with 0 runs in 8 solid innings, this was a definitive return to form. Now, will it stick? Time will tell. Hamels next outing is against a far more formidable opponent, Sept. 1st vs. S.F.

NL POW: Jayson Werth

Phillies OF Jayson Werth takes home National League Player of the Week honors.

Jayson Werth, enjoying a career-year, was named much-deserved "NL Player of the Week" for the week ending 8/23. In 6 games, Werth led the NL with a 1.160 slugging percentage and 5 home runs. He tied for the NL lead with 9 RBI, batted .440, scored 7 times and had a .481 on-base percentage. All in a week's work, showing he's more than Werth his $2,500,000 salary.

Monday, August 24, 2009

Phils and Cards, Twin Towers in the NL

Ryan Howard Albert Pujols Cliff Lee Chris Carpenter J.A. Happ Adam Wainwright Chase Utley Matt Holliday Shane Victorino Ryan Franklin
Howard, Pujols, Lee, Carpenter, Happ, Wainwright, Utley, Holliday, Victorino, Franklin ("These are the people in your neighborhood...")

Cliff Lee has now pitched a remarkable 19 straight innings without allowing a single earned run. He has 34 S.O. and only 6 BB since joining the Phils. In his last 2 games, Lee has allowed 0 earned runs, while S.O. 16 and walking none. For a pitcher that relies on finesse and painting the plate to demonstrate that type of consummate control is truly amazing.

He has been, in short, invincible. For 8 straight spots in the rotation, he has pitched strong and unwavering, earning a victory in each contest. His ERA in 5 starts as a Philly is 0.68. In 40 innings, Lee has allowed only 3 earned runs. All of the sudden, the Phillies have an answer to the Cardinals Chris Carpenter (9-0 in his last 10 starts).

What an amazing opening game pitching duel it would be in October baseball. Let's take a look at how the postseason series matchups might appear if the two best teams in the NL faced one another, sooner or later.

The matchups, as they appear below, are based on statistics and do not take into account days rested, R vs. L thrower or manager's preference. For example, I'm slotting Happ in the 2-spot in the rotation based on performance, although I believe Hamels or Blanton more likely to end up there, come game-time.

St. Louis vs. Philadelphia (best of 7, NLCS series):

Game 1 (in Philly): Chris Carpenter 14-3, 2.16 ERA vs. Cliff Lee 12-9, 2.63 ERA

Game 2 (in Philly): Adam Wainwright 14-7, 2.61 ERA vs. J.A. Happ 10-2, 2.59 ERA

Game 3 (in St. Louis): Joe Blanton 8-6, 3.86 ERA vs. Joel Pineiro 12-9, 3,15 ERA

Game 4 (in St. Louis): Cole Hamels 7-8, 4.78 ERA vs. Kyle Lohse 5-8, 4.67 ERA

or: John Smoltz 1-0, 0.00 ERA (9 S.O. in 1st 5 innings for Cards, but too early to tell)

Game 5* (in St. Louis): Chris Carpenter 14-3, 2.16 ERA vs. Cliff Lee 12-9, 2.63 ERA

Game 6* (in Philly): Adam Wainwright 14-7, 2.61 ERA vs. J.A. Happ 10-2, 2.59 ERA

Game 7* (in Philly): Joe Blanton 8-6, 3.86 ERA vs. Joel Pineiro 12-9, 3,15 ERA

(* if necessary)

Of course, if St. Louis or Philadelphia went down in the series early, you'd likely see Carpenter or Lee bumped up in the rotation with travel days and extra rest between games.

Still, the pitching matchups appear uncannily even, excitingly so. The closer edge goes to St. Louis, with former Phillies pitcher Ryan Franklin 32 for 34 in save opportunities and a slim 1.11 ERA, while Brad Lidge has struggled (to put it politely) at 25 for 33 and 6.75, leading the league in only blown saves (8). Ironically, Lidge's infamous undoing in 2005 (while pitching for the Astros) was against St. Louis's Albert Pujols (who, to be fair, can make any pitcher look bad) in the playoffs. The Phillies are hoping the Lidge of 2008, not 2005, reappears for this October.

Puljos, Cards Top AstrosSt. Louis has their power slugger in Pujols (.317, 40 HRs & 106 RBIs), likely 2009 NL MVP and 2005 & 2008 MVP winner. The Phils have 2006 MVP Ryan Howard (.268, 34 HRs & 104 RBIs). St. Louis has a team batting average of .261, while the Phillies are hitting .259.

However, that's where the offensive comparisons end, as the Phillies lineup is rivaled only by the N.Y. Yankees. With Victorino, Werth (and his career year), Ibanez (at least '09's 1st half Raul) and a reborn Rollins to contend with, the Cardinals will need their stellar pitching to rise for them not to fall-- hard. Despite Pujols' Major League leading 40 HRs, the Phillies have 50 more HRs, nearly 100 more runs and 150 more total bases than the Cardinals. Incidentally, the Phillies also lead the season series, 4 games to 1. However, all that can change quickly in the playoffs. After all, the 2008 Phils went 4-11 against the AL in the regular season, then pounded the Rays in the World Series, 4 games to 1. It's all about getting and staying hot.

Both the Phils and the Cards have emerged red-hot in the 2nd half of the season and reign supreme in their respective divisions:

The Phillies have won 11 of their last 13, the Cards 13 of 16. Philly has a 7 game lead over Atlanta in the NL East, St. Louis leads the Cubs by 8 games in the NL Central. Each team is running away with their division amidst the Dodgers' annual 2nd half tumble (L.A. went 26-26 from 6/23 through 8/19). With their respective mega mid-season pickups, St. Louis (Matt Holliday, .398, 6 HRs, 27 RBIs in 28 games with the Cards) and Philadelphia (Cliff Lee, 5-0, 0.68 ERA in 5 games for the Phils) have emerged as twin powerhouses in the NL, leaving the rest of the league seeing red.

Wednesday, August 19, 2009

Lee Does it Again

Philadelphia Phillies catcher Paul Bako congratulates pitcher Cliff Lee, who pitched a complete game against the Arizona Diamondbacks at Citizens Bank Park, Wednesday, IN AN 8-1 WIN. (Steven M. Falk/Staff Photographer)
Lee finished his MLB-leading 5th complete game Wednesday night.

Cliff Lee showed, once again, why the Phillies lucked out when the Toronto Blue Jays rejected their bid for Roy Halladay. Cliff Lee is 7-0 in his last 7 starts, including 4-0 with a 0.82 ERA with the Phils. And, oh yeah, they got to keep J.A. Happ, who is now 9-2 with a 2.66 ERA on the year, MLB's leading candidate for Rookie of the Year.

Lee, of course, has room for improvement-- but not much. He hasn't thrown any shutouts or perfect games yet, but there's still time. Meanwhile, he's been tremendous with the bat, hitting .385 with 2 multi-hit games in his 1st 4 as a Phil.

The Phils slugging crew did collateral damage, hitting 4 home runs, 3 off of Dan Haren, an All-Star pitcher this season, who came in with a 2.50 ERA, which ranked 4th in the NL. Jayson Werth added to his career highs (27 HRs and 74 RBIs) with 2 more dingers in support of Charlie Manuel's All-Star selection of him. Chase Utley hit his 25th of the year and Ryan Howard slammed his 5th home run in 6 games!

"We can manufacture some runs, especially when we are really good, playing good," stated Charlie Manuel. "We don't have to hit home runs to score runs. But at the same time, we are built to hit home runs. We've got power."

The Phillies posses a 5.5 game lead in the NL East and are now 1.5 games back of the Dodgers for the NL's best record! That's amazing, and I don't think there's a baseball mind alive that doesn't think the Phils are favorites to win the NL at this point. There's a lot of baseball left to play, but with the Dodgers 2 best pitchers injured and faltering and their record tumbling, L.A.'s annual 2nd-half fade has officially commenced.

So, the Phils couldn't hand-off Happ and consequently they have his 2.66 ERA (ranked 5th in the NL) nestled in a rotation fronted by currently unhittable Cliff Lee, 2.72 ERA (6th in the NL).

Their postseason rotation appears more menacing than ever:

1) Cliff Lee (4-0, 0.82 ERA, a 'perfect 10' so far as a Phil)
2) Joe Blanton (3.88 ERA; 1.21 July/2.61 August, allowed more than 3 runs ONCE since 5/21)
3) J.A. Happ (9-2, 2.66)
4) Cole Hamels (2008's Mr. October and reigning postseason Boy Wonder MVP)

The only real question mark the team has is at closer (for more on that, read below:)

Sunday, August 16, 2009

Phils Must Again Take Action

Brad Lidge giving up the lead to the Braves in the 9th inning, Sat., Aug.15.
The Braves won 4-3. (AP Photo/Gregory Smith)


J.A. Happ pitched out of trouble in the 6th, leaving the bases loaded, without allowing a run, a test that likely strengthened him. It was something he hasn't had to do much of this year, to credit his dominance, and it was the type of jam you rarely escape a postseason without facing. So, if this was Happ's chance to glimpse himself in a pinch and survive, unscathed, it was both a success and an invaluable lesson.

Meanwhile, Ryan Howard showed once again, against a division rival in August, why he is the Phils' 'X' factor. Howard's 2 very big home runs accounted for all of the Phils' RBIs, reminding everyone why he is a perennial MVP candidate. By the way, Howard has averaged a HR in every 3 games and more than an RBI per game against the Braves in his career!

Also, the Phils continually receive flack for having such a hitter-friendly home park, which is nationally know as the reason they hit so many dingers. However, their road HR numbers are by far the best in baseball, and they've now hit 81 at Citizens Bank in Philly and 81 in 1 less game on the road. So, the numbers disprove the widely-held notion that the Phils HR status is bloated and somehow ingenuine.

The Phils took care of business in Atlanta, winning 2 of 3 and pushing the Braves to 6 back in the NL East, while Florida fell to 4 1/2 behind. So, despite the Braves and Marlins playing their winningest baseball of the season, the Phils maintain a sizable lead.

So, why should the Phillies worry about their problems, 1st and foremost, the one called "Lidge?" Brad, this time last year, was their greatest treasure, the most soothing member of the ballclub, the unflappable 9th inning solve.

In 2008, if we led through 8 innings, we won, simple as that. Perhaps, we took it for granted, didn't know how good it was-- well, now we do, and change we must. As much as this team can now rest on its laurels and coast on their talent to the NL East pennant, management must resist and act now. The Phillies must not become complacent, but must rather act to keep their World Series title defense and 2009 dreams alive. The reality is, whether it's Myers, Madson or Martinez, the Phils' replacement closer will need time to adjust to their new role in the spotlight with newfound pressure and responsibility.

There is always the dream that Lidge will come around, that his 1 out save tonight is finally the comeback he has flirted with all season, that he will reclaim the form he had in 2009. However, elite teams never rest on their laurels. They strike while the iron is hot, and that is exactly what the Phils must do. They did it with Cliff Lee, who successfully solved the front end of the rotation, and they must do it now at closer, the back end of the bullpen. I covered the numbers and the sides of the argument in "The Lidge Dilemma" (my August 12th post). I will add that since: Lidge blew yet another lead and lost one more game, totaling at MLB-worst 8 blown saves, a record of 0-5. Jonathan Broxton's troubles of late for the Dodgers give one pause, makes the problem Lidge is having in his role appear more universal. After appearing as the NL All-Star Closer last month, Broxton posted a 4.91 ERA in July and is carrying an ERA of 7.20 with 2 blown saves (Lidge-type numbers) in the 1st half of August. Last night, Broxton blew his 5th save of the season for the Dodgers, surrendering 2 HRs in the bottom of the 9th inning.

There comes a point where enough is enough. Perhaps, for all the reasons stated in "The Lidge Dilemma," the Phils have shown no sign of it, publicly, with Lidge. However, the clock must be ticking behind closed doors and 'the hook' awaits. It is, along with Hamels' unreliability, the biggest current disturbance in the Phils' force. Hamels, with the addition of Lee and emergence of Happ, now has a supporting cast strong enough to hold him up, but it's a different story when the fate of the game rests on the shoulders of the man who stands on the mound in the 9th, trying to save it. Right now, Brad can't, and it's sad. It's also hurting the team. Maybe the cost presently appears low, with a padded lead in the division, but the cost is deceptively high if the replacement comes too late, and the team's 2009 closer version 2.0 has insufficient time to adjust to their new role, which leads to an abbreviated version of last year's playoff run.

It seems hard to believe that the same front office that refused to sit back and enjoy 1st place at the trade deadline, but rather aggressively landed the best player moved in Cliff Lee, would allow that to happen. This shrewd era of Phils management is too bright and too proactive to passively pin the team's postseason hopes on our faltering former saver, whose current predicaments have left every close lead in a quandary and our collective fate in doubt.

Thursday, August 13, 2009

Lee, Phils Sweep Aside Cubs

Well, it's sweep season and the Phils have thrown their hats on the field (just not at Shane Victorino). The Yanks swept Boston, Washington swept Florida, Florida swept the Phils and now the Phils have swept the Cubs.

If the Yankees are "America's Team," are the Cubs "America's Losers?" OK, it's a low blow, but they've earned it.

Never has a team in any sport appeared more hapless, more timelessly pathetic. True, the Phils have had their bad years, as have a lot of teams, and the Phillies-- baseball's oldest team-- is infamously the losingest franchise in professional sports history. However, when the Phils are good, they're good, which they proved last year. In stark contrast, when the Cubs are good, they... well... stink like rotten tomatoes when it truly counts.

The Cubs haven't been to the World Series since 1945. they haven't won it since 1908, over 100 years ago. 3 of the last 4 times they've been to the postseason, they got swept there. That's hard to do, to be good enough to get to the playoffs (this isn't basketball or hockey, a precious few teams earn a postseason birth in baseball), and then win 0 games.

The fact that the Cubs are known as all-time losers, yet have a winning history (10,140 wins to 9,578 losses), just underscores how big of losers they really are. To be a winner and, yet, to be universally associated with losing is no small accomplishment.

Last year, they may have had the best team in baseball-- on paper-- and yet, when the postseason rolled around, the Cubs managed their perennial 0 wins-- against a Dodgers team the Phillies found very beatable, winning 4 games to 1 en route to their NL, then World Series Championship.

Cliff Lee extended his winning streak to 6 games, today. He also maintained his NL batting average at .333 with his 2nd double since joining the Phils. He's made a smooth adjustment to batting regularly. In 8 seasons in the AL, Lee had just 2 Hits in 32 At-Bats and 12 S.O.

For the Phils, Lee is 3 for 9 with 2 2B and 0 S.O. Look out Carlos Ruiz, this might be time to take extra batting practice and guard that #8 slot in the order!

Wednesday, August 12, 2009

The Lidge Dilemma

The Phillies managed to squeak one out last night. Everybody should breathe a sigh of relief-- or maybe not. Relief hasn't often come in the form of Brad Lidge, of late, and there is a gaping hole, widening daily, between him and a quiet 9th inning.

“I know that I need to do better,” Lidge said after blowing his Major League-leading 7th save, last night. “But I also feel pretty good right now. Results are important, there’s no question about it. And I haven’t been getting the results that I want or that our team needs. At the same time, sometimes you feel like you’re really far off and sometimes you feel like you’re not. I don’t feel like I’m really far off, and hopefully, it’s going to start turning for me.”

Lidge was literally perfect last year, something as unreasonable to expect as it is unlikely to occur during the grueling 162 game baseball season and lengthy postseason. Yet, Lidge did it. He set that kind of expectation with those kind of immaculate results. However, this season has been a dramatically different kind of year. There has been anxiety and failure, a glimmer of hope followed by another fall, then yet another, each one more painful and disheartening than the next.

There was the injury before the season. At the start of the season, Lidge announced that an unnamed opponent had thankfully alerted him to the fact he was ‘tipping’ his pitches in his delivery (something Astros’ teammate Joe McEwing had told him in 2006). He stated that he and Catcher Carlos Ruiz had adjusted; that it was all taken care of, a thing of the past, and his reliable results would promptly return.

Except, in mid-August, they still haven’t. He continued to struggle in save situations, leading the major leagues with 6 blown saves before management forced him onto the DL after he blew back-to-back saves resulting in losses at playoff-atmosphere, sold-out Dodger Stadium. Lidge wasn't happy to go on the DL, maintaining that he felt fine. Pitching coach Rich Dubee, most bizarrely, stated, "Lidge's stuff right now is better than it was the last three or four months of last year."

So, the Phils applied the theory that Lidge's knee would get healthy during a DL-stint, but if it did, it wasn't the knee causing his problems. Lidge returned and the on-field results remained, largely, the same. Furthermore, Ryan Madson, who began Lidge's DL foray with a 1.95 ERA, managed to blow 3 saves in 2 weeks in Lidge's absence, then posted a 5.11 ERA in July, until regaining set-up man form with an August ERA of 0.00 (thus far) in his natural role.

This complicates things even more for the Phils. If they were to replace Lidge, would they go with Pedro (if he fails as a starter) or Myers (he was their closer before Lidge) or Sergio Escalona (top closer in the farm system) or maybe Jamie Moyer (joke)? Point is: it's a wild card, however you slice it. Whether you stick with Lidge or try another hand, you may be facing a wild card-- or several-- in the deck.

Then, there's the added complication that Lidge is signed through 2010, which means whatever you do with him now, you'll be living with the aftermath entering next season, when he's your closer again. If it is injuries (knees), then time will heal all wounds and that might not be a bad resolve. If it's bruised ego or psychological ailment, then a 2009 dismissal from the closer role might be the straw that breaks his back.

Lidge is now 0-4 with 7 blown saves and an ERA of 7.29. What's worse, he has consistently been poor to dismal, throughout 2009. His best month was July, where he saved 6 and blew none; however, he still posted a 5.91 ERA, went 0-1 and walked 7 in 10 2/3 innings. Those are not Brad Lidge numbers, not the Phillies’ Brad Lidge (reborn from the one Houston gave up on), the Lidge we've come to expect, pivotal in our 1st World Championship in 28 years.

Can the Phillies win the NL East with Lidge pitching the way he is? The answer ought to be "Yes," but we all watched a 7 game lead shrink to 3, when last weekend's series at home against the Marlins (who were coming off being swept by the MLB-worst Nationals) turned into the Phillies’ worst of the season. The Phillies are a team of great streaks. After all, they lost 11 out of 13 in June, then won 14 of 15 in July. Presently, they’ve lost 8 of 12 amidst an uncharacteristic offensive slump, averaging 2.91 runs a game since July 28th, worst in MLB. It's a 162 game season. A lot can happen. That's what the Phillies are counting on. But, for how long?

“I may keep saying that until the end of the damn season,” Manuel said after Lidge's latest blown save. “He’s our closer. What the hell? We’ve got to get him through this.”

Counting on Brad Lidge's season to mirror teammate Jimmy Rollins' (.325 with 8 HRs and 27 RBIs in 151 at-bats since snapping a career-worst 0-for-28 streak) may lead to a perfect ending, a page from the book of Lidge's 2008 perfect season. Or, it may be playing with a fire that can go the way of Mitch Williams in the playoffs-- or, worse yet, it may end much sooner.
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Phillies notes:

The Phillies demoted Rodrigo Lopez, who may be scratching his head after going undefeated in 4 starts: 3-0, 3.09 ERA, 15 S.O. and 6 BB for the Major League club. It reminds me of Jayson Werth's 3 HR game early in 2008, after which he was promptly benched to allow Geoff Jenkins more playing time. What does a guy have to do? In Lopez's case, it was pitch well from the 'pen, which he could not.

Someone should supply Charlie Manuel with Lidge's ERA in non-save situations. Even in 2008, he was ineffective when not attempting a save. This season, amidst all his other troubles, Lidge has been particularly poor when used in a tie or other non-save spots, while Manuel has publicly stated that, save situation or not, 'The 9th belongs to Lidge' and has even used him from time-to-time in middle relief.

Sunday, August 9, 2009

Hamels responds to rest

It’s hard to believe and seems almost sacrilege to say, but the Phillies biggest 2 pitching problems are Cole Hamels and Brad Lidge. After 2008’s immaculate performances by each man (albeit Hamels saved best for last), 2009 has proved a juggernaut of collective head scratching in the front-end of the rotation and backend of the bullpen.

If a big lead in the division (now dwindled to 5 games, but who wouldn’t have wished for it in April?) could lead to yawns and a glance at the potential postseason matchups, Hamels and Lidge have brewed up enough drama to keep all eyes on each game.

Lidge seems to have worked out his problems—but it’s the 3rd or 4th time this season we've heard that. Hamels, meanwhile, is another story and poses one of the most perplexing problems the team has faced all year. Obviously, his spot in the rotation is secure. The questions remain:

1) What can be done to help him reclaim 2008 postseason dominance?

2) Where would he fit in Phils’ rotation if playoffs began today?

The answers are complex-- or maybe not.

On June 4th, 2009, I watched Hamels pitch at Dodger Stadium against a Manny-less Dodger squad. He was brilliant. It was his best outing this year. In 9 innings, he shutout the Dodgers on 97 pitches. He struck out 5 and walked nobody. It was control, dominance, everything you hope for out of your #1 starter, your Ace. Contrast that with Hamels' most recent 2 outings: 10 1/3 innings, 15 hits, 11 runs, 6 BB, 6 S.O. Those kind of numbers in the playoffs can spell disaster for a team-- just ask Chad Billingsley. So, how do you right Mr. Hollywood, Mr. Cool, one of the most powerful weapons you posses, 2008’s NLCS and WS MVP?

The answer may be staring you in the face, it’s that obvious-- and consequently no one is seeing it. How did the Phils right Lidge (if they did) and Ibanez, Werth, Victorino, Condrey and Eyre…? Rest. A DL stint may be just what the doctor ordered. If Hamels has a chance to sit down, maybe he can stand back up and represent his former self. It’s worth a shot, and the Phils—most pertinently—can afford it. With the sizeable lead and lack of competition in their division, with a surplus of starting pitching, the time is now to get everybody as healthy as possible. It has worked so far, and they’re still far ahead. The alternative is obvious, but far from a solution: keep putting Hamels out there and hope for the best, while witnessing the consistently unsettling results.

Hamels shined on extra rest last year, which is part of what propped him up to such a dazzling October. The Phils won each playoff series succinctly, which enabled Hamels to pitch on extra rest throughout the postseason. If they rest him now, say 14-day DL, he comes back fresh, strengthened for when they need him most. Right now, can Manuel or Amaro Jr. honestly say that Hamels deserves the ball over Lee or Happ—or even Blanton? That puts him at #4 (on performance, not reputation or potential). He’s worth more than that, he’s proven it. Doesn’t Hamels deserve the rest, to right whatever wrong he has been feeling since Spring Training? So that he can prove, once again, what he can do at his best, when it counts the most.

Friday, August 7, 2009

Bullpen justice

Am I the only one who has noticed that Chad Durbin hasn't pitched well enough to be in our bullpen? He had a 6.75 ERA in July and -- unlike red hot Chan Ho Park, who has allowed a thrifty 2 ER since June 24th and posted a 0.68 ERA in July-- hasn't had a streak all year.

When the Phils add Brett Myers and Pedro Martinez to the roster, it is likely to be Rodrigo Lopez who gets the bump. Is that fair? Durbin has walked 33 in 48 innings. That's 1 less BB than Joe Blanton in 126 innings.

Tyler Walker (2.76 ERA) and Sergio Escalona (2.84) have clearly been more effective than Durbin. More troubling, Durbin hasn't been reliably effective since July of 2008, over a year ago. In Aug. '08, his ERA was 4.32. In September, it was 6.94.

Yet, in a tie game-- out of habit, perhaps-- Durbin is still the guy Charlie Manuel is most likely to give the ball to. Is that logical?

I argue that Lopez, Escalona, Walker (whose 9th inning strikeout today was clutch), Myers, perhaps even Pedro (we'll see) deserve a roster spot over Durbin. I doubt it will play out that way.

Preview of today's game

This weekend series with division rival Florida has all the suspense of May baseball. With the Phillies possessing the largest lead of any 1st place team in MLB, it's no wonder this weekend series with the 2nd place Marlins feels a tad droll. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact the Marlins just got swept by the Washington Nationals (you read that right), allowing 23 runs in 3 games to the absolute worst team in all of baseball. Perhaps it has something to do with the fact that Cliff Lee has us all thinking about the playoffs.

However you slice it, the Phillies look for a fish fry this weekend in Philly en route to a day off Monday, which will allow them to rest their 6 starting pitchers before making a decision about who gets to start and who moves to the 'pen.

Game #1 pits Joe Blanton-- he of the 1.21 ERA in July, 2.66 ERA since May and 7 inning, 2 run, 0 BB, 5 K August 1st outing-- against Florida's talented Ricky Nolasco: 7-7 with a 5 run ERA, but 5-2 with an ERA around 2 since May.

Sounds like a fair fight, only the Phils pounded Nolasco for 4 runs on 7 hits in 6 inn. on 7/17. Still, he's struck out 118 batters this year, so it should get interesting. If not, there's always the inner rivalry of team home run leader and the daily question, 'How many points can Jimmy Rollins propel his batting average today?'

Ah, ain't these the days to be a Phillies' fan?

Thursday, August 6, 2009

Phils Exceeding Expectations

This preseason, almost no national writers predicted the Phillies would win their division, let alone go deep in the playoffs. That’s nothing new. Last year, when the Phils won the World Series (still feels great to write), they had been predicted by almost everyone to end up 3rd or 4th-- in their division. Even after winning the division, not one of ESPN’s 18 “experts” predicted the Phils would make it to the World Series, let alone win it.

Now? The 2009 Phillies have a Major League best 7 game lead in their division, the 5th best record in MLB and – oh, yeah— newly added reigning CY Young winner Cliff Lee. You bet Joe Torre is shaking in his shorts.

Before Lee, the Phils were probably the team to beat in the NL. With Lee, they definitely are. The Dodgers will be the 1st to admit they are without an ace. Chad Billingsley, the closest they have, was roughed up to the tune of 1 win and a 7.52 ERA in July.

Sports Illustrated was the kindest to the Phils in their preseason predicts. 4 of 13 S.I. “experts” said the Phils would win the division. The other 9 took the Mets. History repeats itself. I guess History just isn’t some people’s keenest subject. 0 of 13 "experts" said the Phils would win the World Series in ’09, and while repeat remains a longshot in baseball’s modern era, I think many would now agree the Phils have more than a longshot.

When your #1 dilemma is which pitcher to drop from your starting rotation… it’s safe to say it has been a swell year to-date.

Today’s big news, of course, is that Happ—according to chief Amaro, Jr.—will not be the odd man out, this time. The Phils are finally starting to recognize that this guy can pitch. Better late than never:

"Happ's not going anywhere," general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said Thursday. "He deserves to stay in the rotation. He's pitched very well. He's probably been our most effective starter."

Wednesday, August 5, 2009

Happ Continues Dominance

The Phillies trade for Cliff Lee looks better every day-- even when he isn't pitching.

When J.A. Happ is on the mound, Toronto’s rejection of the Phils’ offer of Happ and their 3 most developed prospects looks like a favor.

Roy Halladay, whose greatness is indisputable, is 1-4 since June 7th, allowing 21 hits in his past 16 innings.

Happ, meanwhile, seems more confident and in control with every start. In June, Happ walked 16 and struck out 19 in 33 innings. In July, he pitched 40 innings, walking just 7, while striking out 31. Tonight, Happ struck out a season high 10, while walking only 2, improving his record to 8-2, a better winning % than Halladay’s (.800 to .687.), albeit for a more winning team.

Happ earned 3 standing ovations tonight. The 1st was after the top of the 8th, the next was when he came to bat in the bottom half of the inning, and the 3rd was after he doubled in that at-bat.

In 14 starts this year, Happ has thrown 2 complete game shoutouts and pitched an additional 2 games where he yielded no runs in 7 innings. In all, that's 4 starts allowing 0 runs in 2 months of dominance.

It's safe to say that if the season ended today, Happ would be Philly's 1st Rookie of the Year since teammate Ryan Howard in 2005.

Now, please tell me the majority of Philly sports writers are mistaken in asserting that Happ is en route to a return trip to the bullpen when Pedro joins the Major League club.

I realize the Phils have never given Happ the credit he deserves, but this would be crossing a line, even for them. Tonight, Happ made me proud for protesting the Phils while they were trying to trade him.

Offensive notes:

The Phillies had 4 players with 20 homers at the All-Star break, which was the 2nd time a team has managed that feat in MLB history. Now, the same 4 Phils are in the top 10 in HRs and top 11 in Rbis: Howard, Utley, Ibanez and Werth. They must be enjoying the in-team competition!

Preview of today's game

Great pitching match-up today between the Phils and Rockies!

Happ (7-2, 2.97 ERA) vs. Jorge De La Rosa (9-7, 4.68 ERA).

It may appear Philly has the upper hand, but check out De La Rosa’s July #’s:

5-0 with a 2.50 ERA! In fact, after beginning the season 0-6, he’s gone 9-1 since June 5th !

The Phils have faced him once this year, it was April 11th, De La Rosa’s 1st '09 outing. They pounded him for 5 runs in 4 2/3 innings, but he’s obviously improved since.

Should be interesting to see which De La Rosa shows up and which Phillies team appears: the June squad of the last few games or the invincible July team.

Sunday, August 2, 2009

Giant Momentum Gained by NL Foe

I guess it's now safe to say that the Phillies aren't as bad as they perennially look in June or as good as they annually appear in July. Fresh off another stunning July, the Phils lost the last 2 in S.F. to begin August being battered by a team they may see again in October. Thank goodness for Cliff Lee for preventing the sweep. Perhaps the most intimidating stat of the series is how effectively the Giants pitched the Phils without using their pitcher with the best W-L and ERA on the team:

Matt Cain


Matt Cain #18 SP

2009 STATS

ERA W-L SO WHIP

2.12 12-2 112 1.17

In July, the Phils led MLB with a 3.22 ERA. Since 2007, the Phils lead MLB with 84.8% stolen base success rate. Phils will likely see some combination of the Giants, Cardinals &/or Dodgers in the playoffs and we better hope they have an improved Cole Hamels and better base running sense than Jayson Werth showed today, when he tried to nab 3rd with 2 out, already in scoring position.

7-6 with a 4.68 ERA is not what anyone hoped for out of Cole Hamels at this point in the season. With the exception of an invincible post season in '08, has Hamels ever really looked like the second coming of Carlton that everyone repeatedly states he is? At this point, is Hamels even the Phils' Ace? He has, honestly, been outperformed by Blanton, Happ and now Lee. Even Moyer has won more games, while Lopez posted a lower ERA in his brief stint in the rotation.

Remember, "Lefty" once went 27-10 with a 1.97 ERA for a Phillies team that finished in 6th place, dead last in the division with 59 wins and 97 losses. That's right, Carlton won nearly half the team's games that year! In Hamels best year to date, he won a whopping 15 games. That's not nothing, it's just something Lefty did 12 times in his career. So let's stop calling Cole "Steve" and just leave him be as "Cole" for now. Nobody is debating whether he has the stuff. I was there on June 4th this year at Dodger Stadium when he was in total command. Using only 97 pitches, he blanked the Dodgers (sans Manny), allowing 5 hits, striking out 5 and walking nobody in a complete game shutout. It was remarkable. I hope it was a preview of his October to come, rather than an echo of postseason '08.

Saturday, August 1, 2009

Lee Nearly Perfect in Debut

Friday: Phils 5, Giants 1

Fittingly, the Phils saved their first win since acquiring Cliff Lee for when he was on the mound. After the Phils dropped 2 straight for the first time since (inconceivably) July 2nd, Cliff Lee took the mound with all the pressure and spotlight of, say, a playoff game against a likely contender for the Phils come October. This was the exact type of situation they brought him in for:

Can he be a stopper when they are losing? Can he beat a playoff caliber team with all eyes on him? The answer was a resounding affirmative. Not only did he carry a no-hitter late in the game, Lee managed 2 hits, a run-- and was robbed of a 3rd hit on a great play by Giant LF Velez.

Saturday's game: Giants 2, Phils 0

I realize it is almost impossible to conclude who the best pitcher in baseball is, but in my book it's Tim Lincecum. I felt that way before he blanked one of the top offenses in the league today, ours, and I feel it even more pertinently now. The guy is awesome.

Meanwhile, Blanton lost, undeservedly. Has anyone noticed that he has been our most reliable starting pitcher since May? Blanton is 6-2 since May 9th and had an ERA of 1.21 in July! Even more amazingly, since May 21st, he's given up more than 3 runs in a game only once -- and it was only 4 runs (on June 18th).

Meanwhile, a comment on this blog aptly pointed out that my last entry forecasted Brett Myers instead of Joe Blanton in the Phillies rotation next year. This was a valid insight worth discussing. Will Blanton be a Philly next year? I can't imagine that-- based on his terrific and instrumental contribution last season and post-season, as well as in 2009-- that they won't face some competition to re-sign him, as this is a one-year contract year for him (The Phils are 20-12 in Blanton's 32 starts with their club). However, assuming they can secure him and that he wants to continue this joy ride-- after all, the Phils are World Series contenders in both of his first two years, he probably thinks this is normal-- the rotation could thrillingly look like this:

1) Cole Hamels 2) Cliff Lee 3) Joe Blanton 4) J.A. Happ 5) Kyle Drabek

That's right, I see the Pedro starting pitching experiment as just that-- an experiment. Furthermore, I see through it. It's Chan Ho Park all over again. They gave Park the 5th spot in the rotation because he pitched great in preseason and because he sees himself in that role. In reality, as I was quick to proclaim when they got him, his ERA as a starter since 2002 is over 12. Contrastingly, as a Dodger last year he was very effective in the bullpen. The Phillies knew that, and they also knew it was win-win to give him a chance to start. If he succeeded, great. If not, they got what they now have: Park back to his effective middle relief role and a rested Happ shining without burning out his young and under-enduring arm (they didn't need another Kyle Kendrick of '08).

With Pedro, they have a closer if Lidge cant get straight (though none of us want to admit that). Pedro was very effective in that role in the World Baseball Classic for the Dominican Republic. So, the Phillies are smart and are keeping their options close-- not just in Pedro, but in their other famed starter currently on the DL, Brett Myers. We all know he was the closer in '07 and enjoyed the hype and hoopla that went along with it (coming onto field in mass fan hysteria, just his style). So, the Phils have Pedro and Myers as potential closers come September. Here's hoping that # 54 regains his old form before then. Lidge will always be legend here, rightfully, one of the greats... and, oh yeah, he is signed for 2 more years!