More Than Ever, It's Utley-Howard To The Rescue

The Phillies will begin their season in Atlanta next week on April Fools Day.  Perhaps it's fitting, since they will feature a "Who's that?" outfield, where they recently boasted 3 All-Stars (Ibanez-Victorino-Werth).  This winter, the Phils sidestepped mega-star slugger Josh Hamilton in favor of an underwhelming outfield of Hodge-podge castoffs and unproven minor leaguers: Delmon Young, Laynce Nix, John Mayberry Jr., Ben Revere and Darin Ruf (who was demoted to the minors this week for his abysmal fielding).

The Phils biggest additions of position starters this offseason were CF Revere and 3B Michael Young.  Revere notoriously has hit 0 MLB HR in his 1st 2 pro years and 36 year-old Young, who is in his career twilight, has hit 19 HR in his last 1242 AB; 11 in '11 and 8 in '12.

More than ever, the Phillies are going to rely on Chase Utley and Ryan Howard to power them to victories.  With a projected opening day outfield of Brown, Nix and Revere, who hit a COMBINED 8 HR in '12 and a starting rotation that is now more question marks than Aces, the Phils will need to see higher averages and plenty of pop from their veteran former all-star 2B and 1B.

This '12 comic expressed fan desperation in Utley, Halladay and Howard's absence.

Last year, the Phillies kept pining for the return of Utley and Howard, who were sidelined with injuries until the team was mired in a losing funk, buried deep in the standings.  Return they did, and in an unlikely fashion that seemed to vindicate the front office, the team rose with their presence and their power, eventually reaching striking distance of the playoffs before leveling off to a vanilla 81-81 finish.

Was it a swan song or promise of more good to come?  Monday in Atlanta begins the long climb that will tell the tale.

July 7th, 2012: Utley and Howard breed hope.

Plagued by injuries the last few years, each man has had their most robust preseason in years, appearing healthy and strong.  Combined with a resurgent Domonic Brown (.373, 7 HR, 16 RBI in 27 preseason games), who appears poised to finally fulfill his heavily tauted potential, the Phils #3-5 hitters could, just maybe, be a dynamic trio reminiscent of the glory years when Utley and Howard were followed by the lean and powerful Jayson Werth.  The new trio have notched 18 HR this Spring: Howard (7), Brown (7), Utley (4). 

Utley and Howard hit back-to-back HR on consecutive days, Friday and Saturday of last week (albeit in preseason), something they used to do often, memorably to nail the Rays coffin in the 2008 World Series.  It finished a week where Utley hit 3 HR in 2 games and hit .533 (8-for-15).

"I feel good about it," their manager Charlie Manuel said. "I like where they're at."

Utley hit 31 HR in 2009, the year of the team's most recent World Series appearance.  In his 3 injury shortened seasons since, he hit just 16, 11 and 11.  Ryan Howard's injury truncated 2012 saw him post his usual pace with 14 HR and 56 RBI in 260 AB, which projects to over 30 HR and well over 100 RBI, which he notched each year from '06-'11.  However, a career .271 hitter, Howard batted just .219 in '12.  He will have to do better if the Phils have a chance in '13.

Worley went from #4 with Phils to #1 with Twins.

The decision to trade Vance Worley ('11 #3 in Rookie-Of-The-Year voting and the Twins' opening day starter next week) and Trevor May (the Phils' #1 prospect a year ago) for Revere was no small statement.  Revere is under contract and dirt cheap.  Likewise, Amaro and company signaled a very clear message in undervaluing and bundle year evading Hamilton this winter.  They were saying that, with the Cole Hamels 6-year, $144 million extension inked in July the lone exception, this team will not be bailed out by big money, not any more.

Big dollar players Halladay-Lee-Utley-Howard and company will have to perform at the level they are being paid, at least between next week and the All-star break. It’s 4 months of sink or swim.  If his team is not contending by the All-Star break, it's time to swap out the remaining big names for talented under salary youth and promising prospects to replenish a depleted farm system, just as they did with the Victorino move in July.

If the Phils are playing well and decidedly in contention come July, their may be some crafty maneuvering, ala their Hunter Pence acquisition in July 2011.  A piece or 2 will be added, making good on the promise, now in waiting, which crystallized when the Phils moved fan favorites Victorino and Pence in 1 week this past July.  'Anything less than a huge free agent signing or two would be unacceptable,' the thinking was then, then the Phils spent the winter doing the unthinkable.  Or so it seemed.

The truth is, they got Revere  ($492,500) and Young  ($750,000) to replace Victorino ($9.5 Mill.) and Pence ($10.4 Mill.) predominately because of money and risk.

Amaro is shrewd.  The Phillies are a well run organization, ask anyone in baseball who plays or works front office.  Ask Halladay and Lee who chose to come here or Victorino and Pence who were sorry to leave and singing the club's and fans' praises on the way out the door.

Hamels' is the largest contract in Philadelphia sports history.

Utley, Halladay and Ruiz are entering the final years of their respective contracts.

"Yeah, there are several possible free agents," general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said in February.  "So in some ways, this could be a very pivotal year for us."

Amaro and co. realize this precipice.  If the team soars between April and July, it's time to fine tune and shape for playoff takeoff.  If they stumble or, worse, crumble, then Josh Hamilton wouldn't have saved them, only anchored them further for a deeper free-fall.  That is what the front office is figuring.  If they are out of contention come July, Hamels figures to be the only untouchable, the building block en route to a reboot.

Facial Hair Standoff & The Curious Case of Domonic Brown

Werth sports the "W" for Washington.

When former Phillies outfielder Jayson Werth was asked 10 days ago who the team to beat was in the NL East, his reply was:  "Phillies.  I think everybody is writing them off. They played good in September, when they were healthy. They're not going to roll over, that's for sure."

"Yeah, the Braves got the Upton brothers," Werth added. "But they lost Prado and Chipper."

Well, maybe Guru Werth is trying to make up for his scathing retort to taunting Philly fans who jeered "You deserve it!" when he broke his wrist last season: "I am motivated to get back quickly and see to it personally those people never walk down Broad Street in celebration again," he stated last May.  And his Nationals won the division, ending the Phils streak at 5 Division Titles.  Or maybe he'll finally crack Fox Sports Best All-Time MLB Facial Hair.  In the anals of Phillies history, he faces some stiff (upper lip) competition (see caption below).

Michael Jack Ranks #15 Best All-Time MLB Facial Hair.

Either way, the games themselves will be the arena the Phils will have to use to ascend to relevancy in the division once more.  They will have to prove current consensus, that they are a third-place team, inaccurate.

Mike Schmidt likes what he sees from Ryan Howard this Spring.  Howard, back from injury and reportedly looking healthy is the key to the Phillies offense this year, especially since GM Amaro Jr. settled for minor tweaks this winter.

"We've chatted over the years about hitting," Schmidt recently said while consultant coaching the Phils at Spring training.  "I've always been a Ryan Howard fan, but he's picking my brain a little bit more. He looks good. He's doing some of the things we talk about. I'm only in my second day here, and I'm really excited. I feel like I've made more strides in my temporary coaching role than I ever had to this point."

On how he's trying to help Howard, who batted .173 against lefties last season: "A little more contact. He's still going to strike out. I'm in the top 10 all-time in strikeouts, so I'm pretty comfortable with striking out. But I think he needs to [make more contact], and we were talking about ways where we might get him to be a little less strikeout-prone . . . when you get that nasty lefthander to get him out."

This Spring, Howard has been on fire.  He is hitting .364 (12 for 33) with 6 extra-base hits.
 
Perhaps the key to the Phillies mysteriously unshaped outfield transition is Dominic Brown.  Remember their former All-star studded outfield of Raul Ibanez (LF), Shane Victorino (CF) and Jayson Werth (RF)?  Well this season's starting outfielders are a Full House of question marks and castaways.  The strange story of one-time organization golden boy and trade-untouchable Domonic Brown has taken a new twist this Spring.

Domonic Brown has most often run nowhere for Phils.

Once touted for his tremendous potential (he was No. 4 Baseball America prospect in 2011) and promising combo of speed and power, Brown slipped into irrelevant status for most of last season, buried deep in the minors and undesired trade material.  He played his 1st 2012 game for the Phils on July 31st.  He has 492 plate appearances in his MLB career and so far and has fizzled with a .236 Ave., 12 HR in 433 At-Bats and 5 Stolen Bases to 2 Caught-Stealing.  So much for power and speed.

After hitting .327/.391/.589 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2010, Brown looked like he would be a key to the Phillies' continued run of NL East dominance. Instead, he's been injured at times, hasn't hit when he has played and there have been reports about the Phillies allegedly not being too pleased with his hustle or work ethic.

Brown has never played more than 116 games in any season, despite team efforts his defense remains a liability, his base-stealing has been a bust (17-of-24 in the minors and MLB) and since fracturing his hamate bone at the base of his right wrist in spring training 2011 he hasn't flashed the power he was spotted for early on. Still, he has fewer than 500 plate appearances in the big leagues and is just 25.  So, it remains to be seen what he can do, although it's safe to say that his margin for error has all but vanished.  This will be his make or break season with the Philles organization.

So it's particularly timely that this Spring training Brown has impressed Charlie Manuel, reportedly more than any other player.  The manager has labeled him "Our Spring surprise" and Brown is hitting .400 (12 for 30, 3 for his last 4) with a team-leading 3 home runs.  He is also leading the team in hits, walks and runs scored.  He has emerged as the leading candidate to start the season in right field with off-season acquisition Delmon Young sidelined by injury.

"Domonic Brown has definitely showed a good stroke since the first game," Manuel said. "He's been the consistent guy."

That's good news for the Phils, who invested so little in their outfield (notably letting the big fish slip away in Josh Hamilton) this off-season that only a hope and a prayer can secure them an improved outfield from what they finished with last season (Nate Schierholtz, his .257 Ave. and downside potential kind of sum up the outfield mediocrity they resigned themselves to by the end of '12).

Brown injured his right knee in mid-June when he felt a pop while running after he jammed the knee into the ground near the fence in center field for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Although he missed a couple of weeks with the injury, Brown had to wear a brace to get through the season, and developed pain in his other knee from compensating.

"I don't really think Charlie and those guys knew how badly I was hurting," Brown said.

He insists it was health that held him back before and that this year will be different.  So far he has shown it by getting better drive with his legs at the plate and moving effortlessly in the outfield.

"I'm moving around much better," Brown said. "It feels good. I feel I can steal a base and do whatever I need to do for the team again. I'm out there having fun, making sure I'm having good at-bats and that my approach stays the same."

The Phils approach will need to be the same as its been this Spring if they are to turn back the decreased expectations they earned in 2012. 

Mike Schmidt said from training camp: “I see a hungriness this year that I’ve never seen before.  Obviously in the last four or five years you weren’t looking for guys to be hungry. They were the heirs apparent to the division titles, MVP award. We were the first place MLB Network came to every year. We were on the cover of Sports Illustrated. We were at the top of the game for many years here over the last six or seven. All of a sudden we find ourselves not even being discussed as World Series contenders.”

"Let them talk about the Nationals and Braves," Charlie Manuel said. "If we get overlooked, we can change that. One good streak can change all that. People are always running for the ones winning."

By all reports it has been an active, energetic and successful Phillies camp thusfar with Utley and Howard healthier than the duo has been since their last World Series appearance.  April 1 in Atlanta the Phils will begin a 162-game road to October.  Whether they will play beyond that is up to them.