Thursday, May 26, 2016

Phils Face Stretch of Open Road

Philadelphia shut out Atlanta 5-0 on Sunday behind one of Jerad Eickhoff's best games of the year.  It was the Phillies' MLB-leading 7th shutout this season, which matches their total for all of last year.

SS Delvin Perez projects as a 1st round draft pick.
Sources say that the Phillies set up a private pre-draft workout Thursday with Delvin Perez, a 17-yr-old shortstop from Puerto Rico in preparation for their #1 overall pick in the June 9-11, 2016 draft in NJ. Sources say the Phils are "struggling" under the weight of their decision and are contemplating a plethora of candidates.

Perez is tall, lanky, exceptional defensively and speedy on the base-paths. However, it's questionable whether his hitting is big league ready:

"His defense is obviously there," a top MLB scout said. "It'll take time to see how much he hits. It's the hardest thing to project, because it's the hardest thing to do. But he's where he needs to be with his speed and defense."

"I'm very focused on what I'm doing," Perez said. "And I'm ready."

It's difficult to know where Perez will fit into the Phillies system.  Obviously, at age 17, he will be a minor leaguer for a while, but just how long?

Crawford's patient maturity at the plate astounds scouts.
After all, the Phillies already have the top ranked shortstop in all of the minor leagues, one who is likely to see a promotion to the majors sometime this season: J.P. Crawford.

Crawford hit .265 with a 12.1% walk rate, 5 home runs and 7 stolen bases over 405 plate appearances in the high-minors in ’15. The shortstop was also heralded as an “assured defensive shortstop with soft hands and smooth actions [and] a plus arm,” by Baseball Prospectus.

ESPN bumped Crawford up to #2 on the MLB prospect list this week behind  #1 Washington Nationals starting pitching prospect Lucas Giolito:

"Crawford has continued to control the strike zone at an unusual level for his age -- he'll play the entire season at 21 -- and earned a promotion to Triple-A last week, even though his average was just .265 for Reading. He's still an outstanding defensive shortstop with great instincts, though now that he's at a higher level, I'd like to see him get a little more aggressive when ahead in the count because he has good bat speed and a little more power than you'd expect from a middle infielder."

Crawford in spring training vs. Yankees (3/3/16).
However, GM Matt Klentak and the organization on a whole are not in a rush to promote Crawford. Refreshingly gone is the must-win-now pressure Reuben Amaro Jr. was forced to operate under after inheriting the winning fever that comes with 5-straight division titles and 2 World Series births.

The Phillies will play 12 out of their next 16 games against 2 of the best teams in the NL:  The Cubs (ranked #1) and Nationals (ranked #3).  It will not only be a test of their strength, it is a stretch of games that will answer some crucial questions about the team's present and future.

All season long, the 2016 Phillies have been somewhat of a walking contradiction.  Are they the team that can't score runs or the team with the blockbuster pitching?  Are they the team with the horrid run differential with all the luck in 1-run games propping up their record or are they the best turnaround story in baseball, knocking on First Place during a self-declared rebuilding year?

All of this, of course, is a conglomeration of the truth.  Therefore, the win-loss results of the next 16 games will define their immediate future.

General manager Matt Klentak has already declared that he will be a buyer at the July 31st trade deadline if the Phils still posses a winning record at that time.

Bruce has hit .476 with 2 HR in 21 AB vs. Phils in his career.
There is a legitimate rumor that the Phils may try to  upgrade their offense by acquiring Reds OF Jay Bruce if still in competition at the trade deadline.

Bruce, 29, has hit 216 HR, all with Cincinnati since he debuted in 2008, the year the Phils won it all.  He has hit at least 20 HR in all but 1 season ('14, he hit 18 HR), including 30+ from 2011-2013.  He is batting .263 and on-pace to hit 28 HR and drive in 100 RBI this season.

The Reds are non-competitive at 15-31 (3rd worst in MLB) and are looking to unload Bruce and his over $12 million dollar salary.

The Phillies should avoid Bruce like the plague.  The last thing they need is another aging slugger who is 1 injury away from an ineffective albatross.  Furthermore, Bruce hit .217 in '14 and .226 in '15 and his OBP (.281/.294/.317 in last 3 seasons) is putrid.  Is that the kind of black hole you want eating up the cleanup spot until he ages his way out of the lineup?  One hopes Klentak and co. have learned the lesson of the RyHo extended contract disaster (which Yahoo Sports called Thursday, "The worst contract ever") of 2010, which the Phillies are still paying for, literally and figuratively.

Utley comes home August 16th.
Well, this stretch of games, which will leave the Phils just under a month from the end of the First Half of the season, will be one of their toughest of the season-- and it doesn't get easier from there.

In the 2nd half of the season, the Phils schedule is arguably the toughest in all of baseball.  They will have a pair of series against the AL Central's First-Place White Sox, a plethora of games against MLB elite division rivals the Mets and Washington, a series vs. 2nd-place Pittsburgh, the NL West First-Place Giants, St. Louis (leading the NL in runs) and 6 games against the Dodgers, including Chase Utley's sure to be emotional homecoming on August 16th at Citizens Bank Park.

Phils GM has to be happy with what he's seen, yet patient.
There is no doubt that if the Phils are to remain standing when the smoke clears at the end of September, they will need not only strength but reinforcements.  That help must come in the form of bats.  Big bats.  Bats that can bring in runs with one swing.  One potential place that relief can appear is from the minor leagues.  The other is through a trade.  Klentak is no dummy.  He knows that the Phils will have to prove themselves, that they'll have to wade through some tough competition to reach July 31st still winners.  It's trial and error.  Lose and go back to the drawing board, waiting for the nucleus to gel over an indefinite amount of time before getting another chance to make a run at the playoffs.  Win and get immediate help that could result in a real shot at October glory.  That trial starts now.

Friday, the Phils will begin a weekend series at Wrigley Field in Chicago against MLB's best team, the Cubs, 31-14, 14-6 at home.  Hopefully, the Phils are saying their prayers.
Fri, May 27 2:20 PMLester (4-3)Morgan (1-2) 
Sat, May 28 2:20 PMHendricks (2-4)Eickhoff (2-6)
Sun, May 29 2:20 PMLackey (4-2)Velasquez (5-1)

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