Startling Slumps Cloud Playoff Hopes

The good news for the Phillies as they head to the playoffs for the 3rd straight year is that they won't have to play the Florida Marlins anymore. The bad news is more elaborate and jarring.

On Wednesday, as Roy Halladay completed a 9-inning shutout vs. the Red Sox to end another glorious season in his Hall-of-Fame career, Phillies fans everywhere were cringing, knowing he might have been on the mound for us against them in this year's World Series had we closed the deal in July. Halladay finished the season strong, with 2-straight 9-inning shutouts and went 4-2 with a 1.47 ERA in September (17-10, 2.79 for the year).

Still, if Cliff Lee hadn't allowing 11 runs in his final 11 2/3 innings of 2009, the sting wouldn't resonate with quite the same bite. There is no doubt that if the Cliff Lee of September (5.59 ERA) takes the mound for the Fightin' in round 1 of the playoffs this week, it will be an abbreviated postseason. Since going 5-0 with a 0.68 ERA in his first 5 starts with the team, Lee is 2-4 with a 6.13 ERA in his last 7. Likewise, if Cole Hamels-- 13 runs in his last 16 2/3 innings-- doesn't magically regain 2008 postseason form, they will have a gaping void at the front of their rotation. 10-11 with a 4.32 ERA can't possibly be thought of as a successful season for Hamels, nor one that meets any reasonable expectations for the lefty who entered 2009 regarded as one of baseball's best.

Even Mr. reliable himself, Joe Blanton, who anchored the staff throughout 2009, allowed 10 runs in his final 11 2/3 innings and posted a 4.91 ERA for the month of September, while recording a 7.50 ERA in 1 October game, his latest outing. So the concerns about the starting rotation are not only founded, but resounding. Perhaps J.A. Happ, the rookie, the guy who ESPN is now saying will never again match his success this season (did they forget his 2008 postseason dominance out of the 'Pen?), the player Amaro Jr. tried to get rid of at mid-season, is the only guy you now expect to pitch into the 6th and allow 3 runs or less in each playoff start. There's always the chance the Phils will yank him from the rotation, yet again, but I hope they've learned not to 'fix' his unbroken stride as a starter.

There is also much talk that Brad Lidge is still the Phils closer. Philly journalists Andy Martino and Phil Sheridan think that he deserves that role. What planet are they on?! They obviously need to turn off their dvd players and stop watching last season's highlights. I am and will forever be a Lidge fan. However, if '3 strikes means you're out,' Lidge has used up more than his 9 lives. It's 'closer by committee' (or whatever you want to call it) from here on out. To put it another way, how would you feel if the Phils go home early because he implodes in the 9th inning-- yet again? Would you feel pretty bad or more frustrated than ever before, even for a Phillies fan?

"For me, it's like a new season," Lidge said. "Whatever happened in the regular season, happened in the regular season. Here we are in the postseason. If we hadn't made the playoffs, I'd be pretty frustrated right now. But we did, and I have a chance to right the ship here and hope everything goes well."

"I feel better about Lidge, yeah," Manuel said. "I think he can get people out. I still have confidence in him, like I said."

If these quotes send shivers up your spine and threaten to keep you up tonight, then I'd say you have followed Lidge's colossal, horrific record-breaking 2009, which is the antithesis of his record-setting 2008 perfection. Anyone who now wants to see him on the mound in the 9th is delusional. That doesn't mean he won't contribute or even shine. I will be the 1st to applaud this miracle if it happens. However, it should be recognized by all that there is no logical reason for it to occur. Nor should it be counted on simply for lack of a better alternative. Not finding that solve during the months of 1st place cushion the Phillies had remains their biggest managerial mistake of 2009 and may be their ultimate undoing. They might have given Madson an extended look at closer or acquired Wagner or Sherrill to fill the role mysteriously vacated in mind and spirit by Lidge. Instead, they kept unsuccessfully banging their heads against the wall by throwing him out there.

Ultimately, the Phillies under-appreciated and famously tattered bullpen has been an unsung hero this season. The bullpen, Lidge aside, has been stellar of late, and they've done it despite injuries to Myers, Condrey, Park, Eyre, Romero, etc. There's no reason to think these guys can't put it together for the playoff-run, whether or not they have the strength. It hasn't stopped them so far, why should it now? Especially when you consider how expertly Manuel deploys them (with the exception of Durbin and Lidge, who he relies upon to a fault).

An acute source of concern is Chase Utley, an anchor and spark-plug for the Phils, who hit a season-worst .204 in September with only 2 HRs. He finished the year 0-for his last-16, hitless so far in October. You have to question if he's playing injured, as he has countless times, often not revealing and even adamantly denying injuries until after the conclusion of a game or season, while leaving even his manager in the dark.

On Sep. 4th, Utley fouled a ball off his right foot and reacted in characteristic fashion, keeping the pain and swelling to himself. After a necessary X-ray came back negative, manager Charlie Manuel said Utley's foot is "swollen up. He's going to be out today. We'll see how it is tomorrow. Hit it right off his bone, man. If he'd have told me during the game, I might have done something about it. . . . It's hurting today."

On May 1, the New York Mets' Mike Pelfrey hit Utley on the same foot with a pitch. Utley tried to play through the injury, but when the foot did not heal quickly, he rested on May 4 and went on to hit a season-worst .253 in May, denying that his foot was the reason.

Healthy, Utley rebounded to bat .320 in June, .307 in July and .301 in August. When he sat out Sept. 5th for the re-injury to his foot, his average was team-leading .298. He finished the year at .282, his all-time career low as a full-time position player and has hit a worrisome .193 since August.

Do the Phillies have the offense to make up for his deficit? Probably against the Rockies. However, Utley bats 3rd for a reason. He leads the team in OBP and is a perennial leader in batting average, as well. His home runs in game 1 against Milwaukee, to begin the postseason, and Tampa Bay in the World Series set the tone for the 2008 Championship. It's unlikely they can repeat without Utley at full-strength or at least contributing in his unique way. He played through the 2008 postseason with a busted hip and we all know how that turned out, so don't count him out.