Gameday: Phillies-Dodgers, NLCS Game 1

The Phils dugout exploded when Jayson Werth, who I accurately predicted to be the Phils 'X' factor for the NLDS singled in the winning run to close out Colorado in round 1 of the playoffs.

Werth said he knew his team would come back when they went down 2 in the bottom of the 8th-inning. Ryan Howard implored his teammates to give him a chance to win it, confident that he would.

“We will never give up. We never think the game is over."
--Jimmy Rollins

Game 1: Cole Hamels at Clayton Kershaw

This is not only a rematch of the 2008 NLCS between these 2 teams, it's a pitching rematch between 2 of the top left-handed pitchers in baseball. On June 4th, 2009 in L.A., Kershaw allowed 2 runs in 5 1/3 and lost 3-0 to the Phils. Cole Hamels won the decision that night with a 9-inning knockout, allowing 0 runs, striking out 5 and walking nobody. It was Hamels best effort of the season to-date. Can he match it tonight? If he can, the Phillies most important missing piece will fall into place for their title run: that 2nd dominating starter to back Ace Lee.

Since June 4th, the 21 year-old Kershaw is 5-4 with a 1.97 ERA and opponents hit just .195 in his last 20 regular-season outings. In his one start in the NLDS, he surrendered just 2 runs and 1 walk to the Cardinals in a 6 2/3 inning Dodgers win. However, in those 6 2/3 innings, Kershaw allowed 9 hits.

There's no question Kershaw is a hotter pitcher now. It's also true that Hamels trumps him in accomplishments and experience, 2 keys to playoff baseball.

Clayton Kershaw	vs. Phillies	vs. others
W-L	0-2	8-6
ERA	5.23	2.64
BB per 9	6.1	4.7
BA against	.222	.198

The discerning Phils stole 119 bases this year and were caught only 28 times (81% success rate). Look for them to establish their running game early against Dodger catcher Russell Martin with Rollins, Victorino, Utley and Werth as the prime theft suspects. However, they will need to show their mature championship confidence to get on base with walks and singles as they did against the Rockies.

It may be a 7-game series, but this Game 1 is pivotal. Make no mistake about that and not just because this is a chance for the Phils to steal home field advantage for the rest of the series. Each team must establish success with the pitcher they are sending to the mound tonight if they hope to win the NL title, let alone a World Series title.

Kershaw is carrying a heavy load as the only long-term reliable Dodger starter. He must continue to do so if they are to continue their success in the post season. If he can, they have a ticket to ride. If the Phils get to him, drive up his pitch count early, which is the key to their success tonight, then the Dodgers are in a world of trouble. Today's LA Times calls for Kershaw to "get revenge" on the Phillies with some brush back pitches. They seem to forget it was throws at Victorino's head that lead to the bench-clearer (click here to see it) between these 2 teams in NLCS '08. Manny ran in from left-field hyped up on 'roids and the rest is history. Any revenge will be emblematic of envy and jealousy for how badly burned the Dodgers were by these supreme Phils last year.

Meanwhile, the Phils absolutely need Cole Hamels to rise to the moment, as he did in '08, when he was perhaps healthier and more able. If he gets pounded tonight like he did in his lone round 1 outing vs. Colorado, the Phils may not recover in this NLCS to advance. Hamels, wherefore art thou Hamels of '08? Return to us tonight, you prodigal son (or something like that).

Hamels' wife went into labor during his last start, and the couple now has a baby boy, so maybe he can channel all that sleep deprivation and diaper-changing frustration into his fastball.