Postseason Hopefuls

The Phillies are on the verge of a playoff spot for the 3rd straight year, something they've accomplished once in 127 years (1976-78), drawing further comparison to that late '70's team (see 9/21 post, Champions' Glass Half-Full).

However, the general queasiness they presently inspire, has Tex Ritter's golden voice echoing around my head to the tune of "High Noon:"

Oh don't forsake me oh my Brad Lidge, we made a promise when we turned champs from chumps. Oh don't forsake me oh my Brad Lidge, without you our title hopes are in the dumps.

Cole Hamels said of teammate Lidge: "When you do struggle and you're trying to come back, in those struggles you seem to put yourself away from being invincible. And when you're invincible, teams don't want to face you. And then when you come back to the norm, they feel like they can hit you. They have that confidence, and when a team has confidence . . . they're going to get hits no matter what. You have to basically put the fear in them, and make them uncomfortable. Once they start getting that confidence, it is not to your advantage."

What a difference a year makes. Hamels and Lidge, invincible a year ago, were the key to the Phils 1st Championship in 28 years. This season, not so much. Lidge hasn't earned a spot on the playoff roster (if you judge his numbers alone), and Hamels has been the definition of inconsistency, reflected in his 10-10 record. September has been his best month so far, where he seemed finally on-track until derailed Monday against a Houston team the Phils are winless against. Hamels went 6 2/3 innings, allowing 9 hits, 6 runs & 3 BB. Ouch!

But, hey, let's not panic, right? I mean, we're not looking to Hamels as our Ace, we've got trusty new gun Cliff Lee to rely on... or do we? Lee, once 5-0 with an 0.68 ERA for the Phils, has gone 2-3 since with a September ERA of 5.59. Yikes! Lee will have 1 game to right himself before being thrown out there as the Phils postseason Ace. Starting to look like a long shot? If speculation is true, and he is suffering from too many innings, it looks longer than a Ryan Howard home run.

To make matters worse, the Phillies are now playing without a regular catcher, as Carlos Ruiz is indefinitely indisposed with injuries to both his wrists. Sunday the Phils used both backups, Bako and Hoover. They lost original backup Chris Coste to waivers in July when he signed with Houston, who are currently 5-0 against the Phils in 2009.

"We could have been selfish and sent him down," the general manager said. "Business-wise, what we did was not the smartest thing. But personally, for him, I think it was the right thing to do. Had we been a little less sensitive, we would have sent him down and we would have had him at this time. But we did not do that."

There has even been talk that dropped my jaw for its bizarreness, that Jayson Werth and Eric Bruntlett could serve as emergency catchers?! That about sums up the direness of the situation.

Phils Bullpen Coach Mick Billmeyer aptly expressed the impact this is having on the pitching staff, "You've got to have a guy back there you feel confident with. Because if you don't have confidence in him, you might not have confidence in yourself."

Hamels and Lee are certainly pitching with inconsistency, if not lack of confidence (hard to imagine Hamels lacking confidence, even when he ought to). Blanton has been the Phils most consistent starter who began the season in the rotation and he just got clobbered in his last start: 5 2/3 innings, 7 hits, 5 runs, 4 BB (incl. 2 HRs).

Where does this place the postseason rotation? Happ is the Ace if based on performance and statistics, but he just came off the DL and rumors have been flying about him as the logical postseason closer for months. Bottom line: with no catcher to rely on and no clear-cut rotation to depend on, the playoffs look a whole lot more daunting now then they did in August, when the Phils were on a roll, winning 15 of 20 from Aug. 11- Sept. 1. They've now lost 5 of 7 and lead surging Atlanta (on a 15-2 tear) by only 4 games in the NL East. If this keeps up, their concern will quickly become making the playoffs, rather than winning there.

It's highly unlikely that will happen. However, not acquiring George Sherill (1.75 ERA with Dodgers) or Billy Wagner (2.08 ERA with Boston) when they had the chance suddenly looks more pivitol than ever. There's no question, this year's Phils have holes that were filled in '08 and that they appear to be lacking that late-season surge that propelled last year's team to famed glory.

Does that mean the 2009 Phils are doomed to fail? No, it does not. Remember, this bomb squad lineup shined best in the brightest lights last October, when Victorino hit a grand-slam off of CC Sabathia and broke the Phillies all-time single-season postseason RBI record, Rollins found his stroke, Utley fought through major injury to hit key home runs and display now legendary fielding mastery and Werth and Howard hit home runs like Ruth and Aaron. In fact, a look at the rest of the NL playoff probables shows massive question marks up and down the competition's rosters, as well. The road to the World Series is paved with doubts for NL Champ hopefuls:

Dodgers

If the Dodgers getting pounded 11-1 Monday at the hands of the feeble Pirates doesn't zap your confidence in them, key injuries to Manny Ramirez and Casey Blake this week should. The Pirates had just gone 3-23 before the Dodgers managed to lose 3 of 4 against them. That's right and let me repeat: The Pirates had managed to win only 3 times in 26 games, then just took 3 out of 4 against the team with the best record in the NL.

The Dodgers are an infamously 1st-half team and 2009 is no exception. At the All-Star break, they had MLB's best record and their best start in 32 years at 56-32. They are 37-32 since and have the worst forecasted postseason rotation of any team in baseball. Meanwhile, all-Star closer Jonathan Broxton has blown 6 saves and claims to be tired (boo-hoo). At this point, they are reliant on starting pitchers Randy Wolf and Vicente Padillia, 2 names familiar to Philly fans, to give them a playoff rotation edge, and that's desperation defined.

Cardinals

On the bright side, the Phils are 4-1 against them. From there, it kind of goes down hill. There's no doubt with the best 1, 2, 3 starters in baseball, Carpenter (16-4, 2.30 ERA), Wainwright (19-8, 2.58 ERA) and Pineiro (15-11, 3.24 ERA), the Cards are the NL team-to-beat. I predicted this early in the season, while comforting a dejected Cardinal fan, who had given up hope in light of their rocky start. I said they would emerge as the most-improved and the team to watch, and they did.

At mid-season, they complimented MLB's best hitter Albert Pujols (Pujols is 10-for-15, a .667 ave. with the bases loaded this year) with Matt Holliday, hitting .353 for them since acquired. However, they haven't fared well against playoff contenders in September, getting swept by Atlanta, then losing 2 of 3 to both Florida and Colorado. Still, former Phillie Ryan Franklin (38 saves, 1.95 ERA) is as good a closer as any in the NL and the road to the World Series definitely seems destined to be danced to the tune of "Meet Me in St. Louis" in 2009.

More in 2 articles (c/o ESPN) by Philly homeboys turned national journalists that examine some of these same questions:

Jayson Stark's "Ranking the Best and Worst Playoff Rotations"
and the Kruker's, "Plenty of question marks for potential playoff teams"