A Call to Arms

The Phils won 2 Sunday and got a vital, timely boost of confidence, hopefully re-initiating winning ways. The aid came from those trusty arms, the reliable stoppers of the staff: Kyle Kendrick and Pedro Martinez-- ?!

It would be false to say that Ruben Amaro Jr. had it all planned from day 1. Who would have believed in March that a doubleheader against the Mets in mid-September would feature Kendrick and Martinez on the mound for the Phillies-- and that the day would end with the Phils leading the NL East by 6.5 ?

Still, pounding hapless Washington and the hopeless Mets can hardly be seen as a sign of strength, rather than an answer to opportunity when it came knocking. Now, comes the real work. Baseball analysts and fans alike know that the true test of October resilience is the men on the mound. That's where playoff baseball is won. Now is the time for 2008's Hamels, 5/18-8/30's Blanton and, most significantly, reigning AL Cy Young winner Cliff Lee, the man who aced his initial test when joining the club (5-0, 0.68) to rise to the occasion and claim his inherited position as staff ace. The Phillies hurlers must stand tall and give deep and dazzling starts, imitating Sunday's Kendrick and Martinez electrifying double feature. They must now pay back a bullpen whose immense workload at the start of the season has shown its wear-and-tear in injuries to Condrey, Eyre, Romero, Lidge, Madson, Durbin, Park... (you get the picture).

These are the times that try men's grit. The Phillies pitchers, in lieu of the lately woeful, too often dismal 2009 bullpen, which gets worse as the game progresses, must stand tall, dig in on the rubber and put the lights out from their starting role. That is the sign of greatness. When one man goes down, the next picks him up. That's teamwork. The Phillies pitching stars are no longer Hamels and Lidge, which means it's time for everybody else to pitch in.

Pedro Martinez has turned back the clock, thrown off the mask of age and emerged a white knight for the Phils. He is now, incredibly, a major reason why they may still rise to greatness this October. Anyone who knew it would be so when the Phils signed him for a thrifty $1 mill. on 7/14 ought to be a scout in the majors. Sunday, Pedro ironically eliminated from playoff contention the very team that cast him off. "There's a reason this guy won three Cy Youngs," says Phils Pitching Coach Rich Dubee. "He is a fun-loving guy for 4 days, but on Day 5, he's got a different look about him. You really don't talk to him too much. Day 4, he might be doing anything. Day 5, it's about winning."

Still, future Hall of Famer Pedro can't be the only Phil to shine under the bright lights of September. The Phils have won 5 of their last 7 against semi-major league teams. They have 3 more at home against the dregs of the majors, the Senators-- I mean, Nationals. The Phils are 12-6 against the Mets and 12-3 against Washington. They are 58-51 against everybody else. That's still winning, but hardly dominant. There are 20 games left-- 20 precious games. The Phils should win the division with ease during that span, but the real job ahead and opportunity therein is fine tuning and preparation for the 2009 season version 2.0: the coveted postseason.

On August 31st, ESPN ranked the Phillies the 2nd best team in baseball. The Phils were at a season-high pinnacle. Mid-season pick up Cliff Lee appeared invincible, Ryan Howard had just earned Player of the Month honors, having donned his perennial Pennant-run Superman form, Jayson Werth had recently been NL Player of the Week, the Phils starting pitching was on fire, having finally solidified behind additional rotation gem Pedro Martinez and rookie sensation J.A. Happ. The Phils were on one of their 16-6 tears and coming off a playoff atmosphere series win against the Giants. Well, all good things must come to an end. Let's hope the Phils as World Champs isn't one of them.

Last week, ESPN dropped the Phils to 5th in their rankings. Then, Charlie Manuel and the Phils took a necessary step, when they finally accepted reality and moved on. Brad Lidge was not able to resolve his mechanical or mental problems this season and be effective in the closer role. So, as one must do with a terminally busted relationship, they moved on. The trouble now is exactly what kept Lidge in the closer role for so long: where to go from here? How do you replace a 48-48 perfect season All-Star closer? You must have a closer-ready pitcher waiting in the wings. The Phils thought they did in Ryan Madson, now it appears more conclusive than ever that he is not that man.

Madson's save % is actually substantially worse than Lidge's. Madson is 8-14 in saves (57%) and has blown 5 of his last 9. Lidge is 29-39 (74%). Lidge and Madson are a combined 37 for 53 in save attempts (MLB-worst 69.8%), having failed on a staggering 16 saves this year between them. Should they have closed those games, the Phils could have almost 100 wins already, best in MLB and would be favorites to repeat as World Series Champions. You bet the bullpen is a colossal problem, gaining ground in collateral damage with each passing day.

After the Phils got Cliff Lee on July 30th, it appeared a footnote when the Dodgers signed back end bullpenner George Sherrill from Baltimore. However, time has shown that Sherrill-- or recently released former Phils closer Billy Wagner-- were exactly what they lacked. The Phils bullpen has setup arms in Madson and Walker, Eyre and even Myers. What they haven't found a plug for is the 9th inning hole which has manifest into a black hole of hits, walks, hit batsman and runs in increasing numbers as the season has progressed.

Hopefully, the Phils didn't mess up Madson this time around. Last time they tried him out as closer, during Lidge's DL stint in June, it took him all of an uncharacteristically awful July to fumble his way back to form. Hopefully, his current stint as Lidge's replacement doesn't force him to be unreliable when he shined in 2008, in October, when we need him most. Alternatively, perhaps the Phils continuing to throw him out there in the 9th will force him to acclimate like a kid scared of the pool learns to swim. A new hand, the arm of an assured closer may emerge and Madson could be the star closer they now need. Time will tell, and with 20 games remaining, as when there were 120, the closer quandary remains one of the Phils greatest 2009 intrigue stories-- as does the saga of J.A. Happ.

Happ, a Rookie of the Year lead candidate, lost a competition with teammate Chan Ho Park for the 5th spot in the rotation this preseason. Then, with stellar 'pen appearances and Park's ineptness as starter, Happ got 2nd life. He used it to rise to the top of the rotation, posting an ERA that is among MLB's best. Then came trade deadline and Doc Halladay rumors and the Phils tried to deal him away, against his will. The result? They were unable to, and the rest is kismet: Happ was the glue that kept the pitching staff together throughout the summer.

Now, its been 2 weeks since he pitched, with no news of his next start. Happ has been temporarily shut down, no doubt with October in mind, when the Phils will need him at full-strength. There is even a fascinating-- if counterintuitive-- rumor that has emerged: That Happ will pitch the 8th and 'Hold' for Myers, who will close. Where that notion would leave Ryan Madson, the team's superb and proven 8th inning set-up man, who helped them win the Series in that role last year, I'm uncertain.

The Phillies certainly have an unclear postseason rotation right now. Pedro Martinez pushes the point with each new start. He is now 5-0 with a 2.87 ERA and a remarkable 34 S.O. to 6 BB in 37.2 innings. His success defies all expectation, and with his 3 Cy Youngs and playoff grandeur, deleting Pedro from your postseason roster is presently impossible (barring injury). So, could Pedro close? He certainly has the right wardrobe for the closer job (dominant stuff, strikeout material). Perhaps he's now too valuable and secure in the starting role. Closer by committee is a dangerous game come playoff time.

Meanwhile, the Phils are squandering their greatest asset: time. In actuality, they already knew Madson wasn't a solve for Lidge. Any doubts they had after he blew 3 saves in 5 attempts for them with Lidge on the DL in June should have been solidified this past week.

After feeding on the weak for a week, the Phils are a passable 5-5 in their last 10. However, .500 ball is what put their counterpart Dodgers into a downward trend that projects to their inconceivably missing the playoffs, after recording a MLB-best 56-32 record by the All-Star break. This is the Dodgers, though, a perennial 1st-half team. (If I'd put my money where my mouth was, I'd be rich on predicting their 2nd-half collapse, which was more history awareness than clairvoyance at the time).

Beginning Tuesday, the Phils will play their final 3 for the season against Washington and have a chance to finish an improbable 15-3 against them. (Perhaps the Nationals belongs on the Phils' payroll-- or at least deserve a Christmas bonus this off-season). After that, the Phils will play their remaining 17 against Atlanta, Florida, Milwaukee and Houston, non-playoff teams, but teams that have handled the Phils, who are a daunting 14-20 against that group (6-9 vs. Atlanta, 7-5 vs. Florida, 1-2 vs. Milwaukee, 0-4 against Houston). This is the time when champions shine. This is the true test which will define the Phils in yesterday's glory or as today's substantial contenders.