Phillies Glass Half Full

The Phils started May Tuesday night the way they started the season on April 5th: with a win.  With their win in Atlanta, the Phils pulled to 12-12 .  Ah, a new month, a fresh start, a clean slate.  .500 baseball.  They can write their own destiny from here.  The last time the Phils were above .500 this year was when they were 1-and-0.  With a win in Atlanta on Wednesday-- Roy Halladay (3-2, 1.95 ERA) vs. Tommy Hanson (3-2, 3.00 ERA), they can match that.

Entering Tuesday's game, John Mayberry Jr. was leading the Majors in 1 category: S.O. %.  He had S.O. 17 of his 49 at-bats, most in baseball with as many at-bats.  Meanwhile, the Braves' trusty reliever Jonny Venters had struck out 17 of 39 hitters, the highest S.O./9 innings pitched in MLB.

Mayberry pinch-hit for Bastardo with one out in the top of the 8th and the score tied at 2.  Venters had just taken the mound and retired the Phils' 1st batter, Freddy Galvis.  The Phils had led 2-0 behind Cole Hamels, who battled through an off-night to hold the Braves largely in-check.

However, that was erased with a Brian McCann HR in the 4th, a couple Braves' singles in the 6th and the Phils usual lack of offense.

Then, the unexpected happened.  Mayberry took the 2nd pitch from Venters to right field.  Rollins followed with a single.  Then, Mayberry scored the winning run on a wild pitch by Venters.  The Phils would win 4-2.

The runs were the first allowed by Venters this season.  "For me to give it away like that is unacceptable," he said.  "I left some sinkers up in the zone and they don't miss those pitches."

"We were all set up to win that ball game and it kind of hurts but it wasn't Jonny's day," said Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez.

Despite his early struggles, Mayberry stole one back.  Perhaps, for him, it will be the start of something good.  The 1st day of the rest of his season. Maybe the same can be said for his team. 

The Washington Nationals have lost 5-straight, propelling the Phils from 5 1/2 back to 2 1/2 games out of first place.  True, the Phils haven't done that much to help their cause.  While Washington has lost 6-of-10, the Phils have only eclipsed them by 1 game, at 5-5 in their last 10.  With Tuesday's win at Atlanta, the Phils won back-to-back games, matching their season-high.  Hard to believe they've not won more than 2-in-a-row yet, a month into the season.  Harder to believe the Phils have played 7 series so far this season and have won only 2!

No wonder the team is busy rushing Utley and Howard back to the lineup, according to national headlines, which announced Sunday that the 2 former formidable players were heading to Clearwater, ushering in notions that they are about to 'clean up this mess' and 'lead the team to certain glory.'  If only it were that simple, Charlie Manuel could take a fishing vacation in mid-June.

This isn't going to be that kind of season for the Phils-- or their fans.  Cruising to 102 wins was all nice and dandy last year, when fans pined over whether Halladay would beat out Kershaw for the Cy Young and pondered whether the Yankees would catch them for the most wins in baseball.  However, after their 1st round playoff exit, it was clear to everyone that winning 100 games is not the determining factor in a championship season.  In fact, history shows it is a deterrent.

Hard-luck Lee is winless, despite his best start ever.

No, this season is already better for the Phils than last year was.  "Better?!" you're wondering, "How could that be?!  Last year, they led MLB in wins.  Today, they are in 4th place." 

Yes, the Phils are hard to watch.  Yes, they rank 25th in MLB (out of 30 teams) in runs scored, HR, on base % and slugging %.  Yes, they have agonizingly squandered their starting pitchers' 18 quality starts (1st in baseball) in maddening and often implausible ways-- not getting Cliff Lee the win 4/18, despite his 10 shutout innings, 9 S.O. and 0 walks comes foremost to mind, but let's not discount his 1 run gem on 4/7, which the team also managed to convert into a loss.

Better yet, just glance back to Vance.  This past Monday, when Worley allowed 1 run in 7 innings, he didn't get the win.  In 5 starts this year, Worley has posted a 1.97 ERA and has S.O. 32 in 32 innings.  Yet, he has only 2 wins to show for it.  Cliff Lee has a 1.96 ERA, a 0.70 WHIP (2nd lowest in the NL behind 0.68 Matt Cain, SF) and a K/9 of 7.04.  How many wins has he notched as a result of this staggeringly awesome dossier?  None.  He has no wins, despite his undeniable control and dominance so far in '12.  

If you're frustrated with these Phils, rest assured that the starting pitching staff and their former hitting coach manager Charlie Manuel are far more frustrated than you are.

Furthermore, take comfort in the fact that the teams who blossom late, rather than those who lead the pack out of the gate are the ones who are made for title greatness.  The 100 win teams, history shows, are not likely for championship honors.  However, the teams that come together late in the year are the ones most likely to spread their October wings for World Series glory.

The 2008 Phils were just such a team.  Like the '12 Phils, they too were 8-10 after 18 games, which isn't to ensure anything, only to say that it can get better from here.  Will it?  5 signs point in that direction:

1) Papelbon - The Phils finally have a supreme closer again.  For the 1st time since '08, they have a lock-down 9th inning arm.  Papelbon leads the major leagues in saves.  Despite the Phils having won only 12 games, Papelbon has notched a perfect 9-for-9 within that dozen.

2) Starting pitching - Sure, it looked great on paper, but games are won and lost on the field and paper loses its meaning in practice.  That's why the Phils starting 4 performing at the level they have so far is so vital to a potential playoff picture.  Of course, they have to get there first.  However, Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Worley rank among the best in the NL in several categories showing that, while we may have expected it, they came prepared to deliver, which is a priceless part of this team's title hopes.

3) Howard and Utley absent - If this team were fully healthy, we may not have found out that Ty Wigginton could hit .317 in his 1st 21 games.  Even if his numbers dip to his career .265 average in coming weeks, he's one player-- Juan Pierre is another (batting .313) -- who has benefited from this time without Howard-Utley.  He has been asked to perform and has answered the bell.  That can only help during the dog days of summer and the September swoon.   Remember Matt Stairs?  Help can sometimes come from the bench in clutch moments.  Equally crucial: the Phils have finally started to practice some of the small ball they desperately now need to produce the runs the longball used to get them.

4) Howard and Utley return - In their absence, the Phils have managed a .500 record.  When they return, again: due to the pitches everyone around them will see as much as the contributions they will hopefully make, the team can only improve, because its offensive production most certainly will.  If Charlie Manuel was told before the season that his team would play their 1st 24 games without Utley or Howard, who were soon to return, and that they would find themselves 12-12 only a mere 2 1/2 games out of 1st, I think he'd have said, in his usual swaggering candor: "I'd like my odds for the rest of the season."

5) NL East - As much as the talk about the better Braves, improved Nationals and mounting Marlins filled our ears during the offseason, no one has claimed the division away from the Phils-- yet.  Washington started 14-4, destined to fall to Earth, then promptly nose-dived quicker than expected by losing 5 straight (their current streak).  The NL East is still the Phils to lose.  So far, if you project ahead, it still appears they have the best shot at winning it.  In part, despite the pitfalls they've found themselves in to this point in the season.  In part, because of them.

The Phils will play Washington 6 times this month, likely to determine 1st place.  The first series is in Washington, May 4th-6th.  The next is in Philly, May 21-23.  This Friday, May 4th, the Phils are scheduled to see Stephen Strasburg, the famed young right-hander, whose stuff is already legend. 

The Phils win Tuesday was the 1st in a 9-game stretch against NL East rivals.

"This is where we can make up our ground," Cole Hamels said. "Hopefully this can kind of spark us into being the team that we know we're capable of being and what everybody obviously expects us to be. We're playing against better teams and teams that have better records than us and we have to change that and start getting momentum back on our side and things will flow a lot easier."