Are The Phillies Washed Up?

The Phils were just swept by the N.Y. Mets.  It's as hard-to-believe as it is painful to swallow.  It was the Mets first sweep of a three-game series in Philly since June 2006.

The Phils have lost 6 of their last 8 games.  They had leads in ALL of those games-- sometimes as much as a 6-run lead.  With the offense finally beginning to produce runs (78 runs in 16 games; 4.88 runs/game), perhaps the team's worst flaw on the current roster has been exposed: their bullpen.

In 2008, the Phils and Dodgers battled for the league's best bullpen.  Since then, the Phils beefed up their star rotation and let the bullpen go to pot, figuring it irrelevant.  Now, the bullpen ERAs read like the cost of gasoline: ever-increasing at eye-popping and infuriating rates.  Kendrick 7.32, Contreras 8.59, Sanches 11.25, Schwimer 8.53, Stutes 6.35...

The Phillies bullpen ranks 30th out of 30 ML teams with a 5.59 ERA.  Opponents are hitting .277 against them and they have a record of 2-8.  That's the difference between the Phils potentially being in first place and the reality of their being in last place.

It's not simply the incompetence of the bullpen, but how poorly it is used by manager Charlie Manuel, who has resurrected his early managerial career tendency for drawing criticism and appearing inept.  This season, the Phils have lost 5 games in the 9th inning or later.  Papelbon was not used by Manuel in any of those games.

Perhaps those were 5 games that Manuel felt like resting his star closer.  However, Papelbon is a perfect 9-9 in saves this season and cost the Phils $50-million.  Those 5 games match the Phils' GB ("Games Back") of first place.  To make matters worse, Manuel elected to use Papelbon in a 2-2 9th inning tie on Monday in a non-save situation in an inexplicable move which was lacking in strategic logic.  The game resulted in Papelbon's first loss of the season.  Papelbon's April ERA as a closer: 0.90.  His May ERA as a non-save reliever? 13.50.

Sunday night's ESPN "Game of the Week" was a National spread on the Nationals.  According to ESPN, the new face of baseball is the young, talented Washington Nationals.  They even have their own catchy nickname, "Natitude," which sounds about as substantial as a drive-through combo-meal.  "Would you like the Happy Harper Burger or a Strasburg Shake with that?"  Washington had taken the first 2 of the 3-game series by outscoring the Phils 11-4, knocking them to last place, a full 5 1/2 games back.

Sunday, Cole Hamels and Hunter Pence would not let that trend continue.

Hamels struck media darling Bryce Harper, the 19 year-old phenom whose hype is unmatched in baseball's storied history, with a "welcome to the big leagues" fastball to the back and extended his intensity by holding the Nationals to 1 run, while Pence pounded 2 HR and is currently on pace for 35 this season (25 is his career high).  Impressively, that's without Utley and Howard in the lineup, so the pitches Pence has seen thus-far in the clean-up spot are significantly worse than those he's likely to see when he relinquishes the role to Howard.

Sunday, ESPN lauded the Nationals, gushing about not simply their young exciting starting pitching, but also their electrifying bullpen and not to forget their promising young bats.

Oh, and they talked about the Phils, too.  Not only their lack of offense, but also their failures from the mound and not to forget their unenviable agedness.

Jayson Werth broke his wrist on Monday

Perhaps to underscore the limp Phillies organization, as if to say, 'out with the old', the days following the Nationals series whipping saw Jayson Werth's career-threatening break to his chronically injured wrist.   Meanwhile, Ryan Madson will not throw a pitch this year due to injury.  It's as if even the Phils who are no longer Phils have passed their prime and are baseball extinct.

Even Chase Utley's HR in batting practice with the team Wednesday (he claims to be pain-free at the plate) seemed vastly overshadowed by the fact that he has yet to field ground balls at the professional level this year, even in simulation.

"Grounders are harder because I have to get my legs under me and in a more athletic position," Utley said Wednesday. "Those are things that I'm going to have to progress doing. I can't just go out there and take 100 ground balls right off the bat. I know myself and, at this point, that wouldn't be good for me."

Over the past week, the media has been flooded with stories of Roy Halladay's "decreasing velocity."  "In 2010, Halladay's cutter averaged 91.3 miles per hour. This season, it has dipped to 88.9," they argue.  "In 2009, his sinker averaged 92.6 mph and topped out at 95.8. In 2012, that average is at 90.6 with a max of 92.8."

"No pitcher in baseball has thrown more innings than Halladay in the regular season since 2006," they warn, "And he has the most complete games of any active pitcher, 16 more than the next-closest."

Then, there was the Cole Hamels smear.  After Hamels hit Harper Sunday, everybody and their grandma came out to blast him, including top-notch loudmouth Curt Schilling:  “What the hell does that even mean? I’m old and I’m a former player, and I don’t understand it.”  He called Hamels “selfish,” “stupid” and “hypocritical.” 

"I was trying to hit him. I'm not going to deny it," Hamels, who never claimed to be big in brains told reporters.  "It's something I grew up watching. That's what happened. I'm just trying to continue the old baseball...  I remember when I was a rookie, the strike zone was really, really small and you didn't say anything. That's the way baseball is. Sometimes the league is protecting certain players. It's that old-school prestigious way of baseball."

Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo told The Washington Post that Hamels hitting Harper with a pitch was "classless" and "gutless."

Typically, guys get away with 'beaning' batters by claiming "the ball got away from me" or "I missed my location."  Hamels contrastingly said, "I'm not going to lie and say I wasn't trying to do it."  Hamels was lambasted far-and-wide within the sports world, then fined and suspended 5 games by baseball for his candor.  "He could have been a little more discreet or less honest," his manager, Charlie Manuel said.

Still, perhaps the fact that Hamels kept coming back to the word "old" was fitting.  That's how this team is now viewed.  They're old, they're feeble, they're broken down.  Maybe that's true.  Then again, maybe it's not.

Losing games by stranding 12 runners on base won't prove that point.  Failing to score with nobody out and the bases loaded won't do it either.  Neither will blown leads by the bullpen or the manager's failure to use it effectively.  Even the return of Utley-Howard may not lead this team to its former glory or a semblance of its former self.

However, if they can continue to score runs, they can eclipse some of the bad luck.  That part of it will balance out over the 162-game season.

For example, the Phils have lost 5 games by 1 run.  They are 0-4 in extra-innings.  Their 3-hole and 4-slot hitters have played a net sum of zero games this year.  Some of these statistics have to be in their favor.

Yes, the Phils are presently 4 1/2 games behind the on-paper piss-poor Mets.  However, the Phils runs scored/allowed differential is twice as good. 

Utley's injury, progress and the future of his career remain an enigma.

There will start to be games when the hitting and the pitching successes take effect on the same night.  That will make up for some of the present hardship in the standings.

The Nationals will fall.  The Braves may not.  The Mets will.  So, probably, will the underachieving Marlins.  Getting Utley-Howard back will help, so will some prudent managing by Charlie Manuel, which he is capable of-- or so we hope.

The Phillies' bullpen remains a serious concern.  However, just as starters are often scarce at the trading block, relievers always seem available, often at an attainable price.  The Phils should start looking now, prizing those gems among the teams that figure to be out of contention and pocket money, hungry for prospects to replace arms that require millions to retain.

There's no guarantee that this year's team is going anywhere.  They may in fact miss the playoffs for the first time since 2006.  After all, 2006 is the last time the Mets swept the Phils at home, which they did again Wednesday night.

However, there's just as much reason to believe-- perhaps more, thanks to the success of the past 5 years, that this team has fight left in them.  True, personnel has changed, but not all of it.  There's plenty of reason to believe, despite a media onslaught of naysaying, that Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Utley, Howard, Victorino, Rollins and Chooch, who have defined this team's highest achievements the last 5 years, have life left in them.

Furthermore, since baseball more than any other sport is a marathon, not a sprint, which is played over an incomparably long season, let the kids like the Nationals sprint out to first place, while the veterans' cool presence unfolds over 162 games.

Only a paltry few 100-win teams have succeeded in the postseason.  A staggering percentage of 90-win Wild Card teams have.

The Phils won the World Series in '08 after winning 92 games, then returned the next year after winning 93.  Last season's 102-win team got bumped in the first round.

If this team is to make the playoffs, it may take a late-season charge and last-week dramatics.  However, isn't that the way to get there, on a roll?  Whether they can make the necessary adjustments and find the chemistry as they shuffle lineups in ensuing months remains to be seen.  However, for the Phillies fan and the National Media alike, counting them out already seems disloyal and premature.

They still have 2 World Series appearances, 1 ring, 5-straight division titles, 2 MVPs, 3 CY Young Awards and a Rookie-of-the-Year on this team.  They are, to some extent, innocent until proven extinct.