Tuesday, December 15, 2009

Phillies' Colossal, Irrevocable Error

Kyle Drabek, the Phillies "untouchable" future ace, major league ready and dazzling to all baseball experts, has been cast off. Cliff Lee, the Phillies 2009 postseason hero, has been permanently discharged.

"It's sad to see him go. A guy who wins 5 games for you in the postseason, you don't want to see him go," said Shane Victorino.

In today's 'live for today, get fired tomorrow' coaching & managerial sports climate, it's understandable Phils GM Ruben Amaro Jr. would sacrifice everything the Phillies weren't willing to give up to get Cliff Lee at mid season, since he made it perfectly clear then-- and even more clear now-- that Halladay is the player he has pinned his Championship hopes on.

It is exciting to add Halladay, one of the best pitchers in baseball today, to the top of our rotation.

However, when you take a step back from the excitement, once the smoke clears, Keith Law of ESPN is right (for once): the Phillies got robbed-- and, in classic Phillies fashion, they did it to themselves.

They had Cliff Lee, they had acquired him a few short months ago for less than anyone thought they could. It appeared that Amaro Jr. was picking up where Pat Gillick left off, making smart moves to strengthen the Phillies. Now, he went and undid all that.

In trading away 2nd tier prospects for Lee, then trading Lee + top prospects for Halladay + a couple low end prospects who aren't even worth mention by name, the Phillies essentially sold their entire future and their current best starting pitcher for... another team's best starting pitcher. It was 1 for 1 + the Phils future, the equivalent of trading one star child for another + all future children.

Philadelphia POLL:

Who would you rather have, Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee?

Roy Halladay

8697 (52.2%)
Cliff Lee

7951 (47.8%)
Total votes = 16648

What the Phillies really did was trade: 2008 Cy Young Cliff Lee, who just went 4-0 with a 1.56 ERA in 5 postseason appearances and 2-0 against the Yankees in the World Series + future all-star ace Kyle Drabek, the prize of their farm system, their "untouchable" player + future all-star outfielder Michael Taylor + future and present major leaguers Lou Marson (catcher), Carlos Carrasco (pitcher), Jason Donald (pitcher), Jason Knapp (pitcher) and Travis d'Arnaud (catcher).

What they got was a 2003 Cy Young winner who is debatably better than Cliff Lee. If you look at the [above] poll, over 16,500 people are virtually split when appraising who is better. The Phils spent an additional 7 players getting him.

The Phils loss in this deal is titanic in acquiring Halladay, who ESPN says is "slightly better" than Lee. It is an epic loss for Phillies' fans, who are finally enjoying a winning era, one of the precious few in team history. As Victorino pointed out in his ESPN interview, this is a team with great chemistry, a team that had embraced Lee as one of their own, a team that could've beaten the Yankees any given week, but fell 2 games short of another title.

There is no question the price wasn't worth this trade. They had Lee, a top pitcher and ace. What they now have is Halladay, a top pitcher and ace. What they gave up was their future-- and we're not talking distant future. Taylor, Drabek and others are major-league ready. They will be beating the Phillies very soon at the major league level. Surrendering Drabek will haunt the Phillies as he ascends to greatness over the next 2 years. He shined in the Futures Game this past season and is a future Cy Young. He is major league ready now (see my 8.1.09 post: lee nearly perfect in debut projected 2010 rotation of 1) cole hamels 2) cliff lee 3) joe blanton 4) ja happ 5) kyle drabek).

The Phillies signed their own death warrant when they made this trade, appearing desperate when they held all the cards. They just won the NL twice in a row. Now was not the time to hit the panic button, sell the farm and swap top pitchers by surrendering the guy who contributed as well as Halladay could have. Lee was 2-0 in the World Series in 2 games, you can't beat that. Even if Halladay is better next year, the price was so high you'd have to be Amaro Jr. to even understand it. This is a sad day for Phillies' fans.

NOT INCLUDING (DETAILED ABOVE) PLAYERS THEY TRADED TO GET LEE 4 MONTHS AGO:

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