Phils and Cards, Twin Towers in the NL

Howard, Pujols, Lee, Carpenter, Happ, Wainwright, Utley, Holliday, Victorino, Franklin ("These are the people in your neighborhood...")

Cliff Lee has now pitched a remarkable 19 straight innings without allowing a single earned run. He has 34 S.O. and only 6 BB since joining the Phils. In his last 2 games, Lee has allowed 0 earned runs, while S.O. 16 and walking none. For a pitcher that relies on finesse and painting the plate to demonstrate that type of consummate control is truly amazing.

He has been, in short, invincible. For 8 straight spots in the rotation, he has pitched strong and unwavering, earning a victory in each contest. His ERA in 5 starts as a Philly is 0.68. In 40 innings, Lee has allowed only 3 earned runs. All of the sudden, the Phillies have an answer to the Cardinals Chris Carpenter (9-0 in his last 10 starts).

What an amazing opening game pitching duel it would be in October baseball. Let's take a look at how the postseason series matchups might appear if the two best teams in the NL faced one another, sooner or later.

The matchups, as they appear below, are based on statistics and do not take into account days rested, R vs. L thrower or manager's preference. For example, I'm slotting Happ in the 2-spot in the rotation based on performance, although I believe Hamels or Blanton more likely to end up there, come game-time.

St. Louis vs. Philadelphia (best of 7, NLCS series):

Game 1 (in Philly): Chris Carpenter 14-3, 2.16 ERA vs. Cliff Lee 12-9, 2.63 ERA

Game 2 (in Philly): Adam Wainwright 14-7, 2.61 ERA vs. J.A. Happ 10-2, 2.59 ERA

Game 3 (in St. Louis): Joe Blanton 8-6, 3.86 ERA vs. Joel Pineiro 12-9, 3,15 ERA

Game 4 (in St. Louis): Cole Hamels 7-8, 4.78 ERA vs. Kyle Lohse 5-8, 4.67 ERA

or: John Smoltz 1-0, 0.00 ERA (9 S.O. in 1st 5 innings for Cards, but too early to tell)

Game 5* (in St. Louis): Chris Carpenter 14-3, 2.16 ERA vs. Cliff Lee 12-9, 2.63 ERA

Game 6* (in Philly): Adam Wainwright 14-7, 2.61 ERA vs. J.A. Happ 10-2, 2.59 ERA

Game 7* (in Philly): Joe Blanton 8-6, 3.86 ERA vs. Joel Pineiro 12-9, 3,15 ERA

(* if necessary)

Of course, if St. Louis or Philadelphia went down in the series early, you'd likely see Carpenter or Lee bumped up in the rotation with travel days and extra rest between games.

Still, the pitching matchups appear uncannily even, excitingly so. The closer edge goes to St. Louis, with former Phillies pitcher Ryan Franklin 32 for 34 in save opportunities and a slim 1.11 ERA, while Brad Lidge has struggled (to put it politely) at 25 for 33 and 6.75, leading the league in only blown saves (8). Ironically, Lidge's infamous undoing in 2005 (while pitching for the Astros) was against St. Louis's Albert Pujols (who, to be fair, can make any pitcher look bad) in the playoffs. The Phillies are hoping the Lidge of 2008, not 2005, reappears for this October.

St. Louis has their power slugger in Pujols (.317, 40 HRs & 106 RBIs), likely 2009 NL MVP and 2005 & 2008 MVP winner. The Phils have 2006 MVP Ryan Howard (.268, 34 HRs & 104 RBIs). St. Louis has a team batting average of .261, while the Phillies are hitting .259.

However, that's where the offensive comparisons end, as the Phillies lineup is rivaled only by the N.Y. Yankees. With Victorino, Werth (and his career year), Ibanez (at least '09's 1st half Raul) and a reborn Rollins to contend with, the Cardinals will need their stellar pitching to rise for them not to fall-- hard. Despite Pujols' Major League leading 40 HRs, the Phillies have 50 more HRs, nearly 100 more runs and 150 more total bases than the Cardinals. Incidentally, the Phillies also lead the season series, 4 games to 1. However, all that can change quickly in the playoffs. After all, the 2008 Phils went 4-11 against the AL in the regular season, then pounded the Rays in the World Series, 4 games to 1. It's all about getting and staying hot.

Both the Phils and the Cards have emerged red-hot in the 2nd half of the season and reign supreme in their respective divisions:

The Phillies have won 11 of their last 13, the Cards 13 of 16. Philly has a 7 game lead over Atlanta in the NL East, St. Louis leads the Cubs by 8 games in the NL Central. Each team is running away with their division amidst the Dodgers' annual 2nd half tumble (L.A. went 26-26 from 6/23 through 8/19). With their respective mega mid-season pickups, St. Louis (Matt Holliday, .398, 6 HRs, 27 RBIs in 28 games with the Cards) and Philadelphia (Cliff Lee, 5-0, 0.68 ERA in 5 games for the Phils) have emerged as twin powerhouses in the NL, leaving the rest of the league seeing red.