The Lidge Dilemma

The Phillies managed to squeak one out last night. Everybody should breathe a sigh of relief-- or maybe not. Relief hasn't often come in the form of Brad Lidge, of late, and there is a gaping hole, widening daily, between him and a quiet 9th inning.

“I know that I need to do better,” Lidge said after blowing his Major League-leading 7th save, last night. “But I also feel pretty good right now. Results are important, there’s no question about it. And I haven’t been getting the results that I want or that our team needs. At the same time, sometimes you feel like you’re really far off and sometimes you feel like you’re not. I don’t feel like I’m really far off, and hopefully, it’s going to start turning for me.”

Lidge was literally perfect last year, something as unreasonable to expect as it is unlikely to occur during the grueling 162 game baseball season and lengthy postseason. Yet, Lidge did it. He set that kind of expectation with those kind of immaculate results. However, this season has been a dramatically different kind of year. There has been anxiety and failure, a glimmer of hope followed by another fall, then yet another, each one more painful and disheartening than the next.

There was the injury before the season. At the start of the season, Lidge announced that an unnamed opponent had thankfully alerted him to the fact he was ‘tipping’ his pitches in his delivery (something Astros’ teammate Joe McEwing had told him in 2006). He stated that he and Catcher Carlos Ruiz had adjusted; that it was all taken care of, a thing of the past, and his reliable results would promptly return.

Except, in mid-August, they still haven’t. He continued to struggle in save situations, leading the major leagues with 6 blown saves before management forced him onto the DL after he blew back-to-back saves resulting in losses at playoff-atmosphere, sold-out Dodger Stadium. Lidge wasn't happy to go on the DL, maintaining that he felt fine. Pitching coach Rich Dubee, most bizarrely, stated, "Lidge's stuff right now is better than it was the last three or four months of last year."

So, the Phils applied the theory that Lidge's knee would get healthy during a DL-stint, but if it did, it wasn't the knee causing his problems. Lidge returned and the on-field results remained, largely, the same. Furthermore, Ryan Madson, who began Lidge's DL foray with a 1.95 ERA, managed to blow 3 saves in 2 weeks in Lidge's absence, then posted a 5.11 ERA in July, until regaining set-up man form with an August ERA of 0.00 (thus far) in his natural role.

This complicates things even more for the Phils. If they were to replace Lidge, would they go with Pedro (if he fails as a starter) or Myers (he was their closer before Lidge) or Sergio Escalona (top closer in the farm system) or maybe Jamie Moyer (joke)? Point is: it's a wild card, however you slice it. Whether you stick with Lidge or try another hand, you may be facing a wild card-- or several-- in the deck.

Then, there's the added complication that Lidge is signed through 2010, which means whatever you do with him now, you'll be living with the aftermath entering next season, when he's your closer again. If it is injuries (knees), then time will heal all wounds and that might not be a bad resolve. If it's bruised ego or psychological ailment, then a 2009 dismissal from the closer role might be the straw that breaks his back.

Lidge is now 0-4 with 7 blown saves and an ERA of 7.29. What's worse, he has consistently been poor to dismal, throughout 2009. His best month was July, where he saved 6 and blew none; however, he still posted a 5.91 ERA, went 0-1 and walked 7 in 10 2/3 innings. Those are not Brad Lidge numbers, not the Phillies’ Brad Lidge (reborn from the one Houston gave up on), the Lidge we've come to expect, pivotal in our 1st World Championship in 28 years.

Can the Phillies win the NL East with Lidge pitching the way he is? The answer ought to be "Yes," but we all watched a 7 game lead shrink to 3, when last weekend's series at home against the Marlins (who were coming off being swept by the MLB-worst Nationals) turned into the Phillies’ worst of the season. The Phillies are a team of great streaks. After all, they lost 11 out of 13 in June, then won 14 of 15 in July. Presently, they’ve lost 8 of 12 amidst an uncharacteristic offensive slump, averaging 2.91 runs a game since July 28th, worst in MLB. It's a 162 game season. A lot can happen. That's what the Phillies are counting on. But, for how long?

“I may keep saying that until the end of the damn season,” Manuel said after Lidge's latest blown save. “He’s our closer. What the hell? We’ve got to get him through this.”

Counting on Brad Lidge's season to mirror teammate Jimmy Rollins' (.325 with 8 HRs and 27 RBIs in 151 at-bats since snapping a career-worst 0-for-28 streak) may lead to a perfect ending, a page from the book of Lidge's 2008 perfect season. Or, it may be playing with a fire that can go the way of Mitch Williams in the playoffs-- or, worse yet, it may end much sooner.
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Phillies notes:

The Phillies demoted Rodrigo Lopez, who may be scratching his head after going undefeated in 4 starts: 3-0, 3.09 ERA, 15 S.O. and 6 BB for the Major League club. It reminds me of Jayson Werth's 3 HR game early in 2008, after which he was promptly benched to allow Geoff Jenkins more playing time. What does a guy have to do? In Lopez's case, it was pitch well from the 'pen, which he could not.

Someone should supply Charlie Manuel with Lidge's ERA in non-save situations. Even in 2008, he was ineffective when not attempting a save. This season, amidst all his other troubles, Lidge has been particularly poor when used in a tie or other non-save spots, while Manuel has publicly stated that, save situation or not, 'The 9th belongs to Lidge' and has even used him from time-to-time in middle relief.