Chase Utley Being Traded?

Sticks & Stones may break my bones, but trade rumors never hurt me.

Rumor has it Jonathan Papelbon is heading to Detroit-- or back to Boston.  Phils GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is insisting, daily, that it isn't true, but is quick to add that "Papelbon is the best closer in baseball," which is hard to argue and likely an indication of Amaro's opinion of his trade value more than anything else.

Papelbon, Cole Hamels and Cliff Lee have all been quoted by the press making disparaging remarks about the team lately.  Lee and Hamels were quoted showing a keen interest in being on a winning team with no regard to their current one, while Papelbon questioned the ability of (it appears) Ryan Howard, whose 20 HR pace is a far cry from the 58 he posted in '06.  Perhaps management should treat Hamels with the frankness Yankees GM Cashman delt A-Rod this week and encourage him to tighten his lips until he becomes part of the solution instead of part of the problem.

Meanwhile, Chase Utley is being talked about as trade bait.  Speculation says that if the Phils could do it

with Victorino last season on the eve of his free agency, they could do it to Chase, who becomes a free agent after this season.  As with Victorino, if the Phils are not going to pay market value to retain Utley, the logical move would be to trade him now, before they come up with nothing when he walks in a couple short months.  Since they aren't in contention for the postseason now, retaining him for just the remainder of this season would make him a costly short-term rental with little to no upside.

Think of what they got for Victorino last season: reliever Josh Lindblom and minor league pitcher Ethan Martin.  Martin has yet to pitch in the majors and Lindblom is now on the Texas Rangers.  So, while both players were gravy since they weren't going to pay the $13 million a year Boston gave Victorino, can you imagine the Phils dumping Utley for 2 players as nondescript as those?  There might be riots, certainly an Earthquake of boos at the Bank.

Utley's '09 5 HR World Series was historic.

A local Philly poll puts the exclamation point on this fact:

If only one of these Phillies players was to remain with the team for his whole career, who would you want it to be?
Ryan Howard
	192 (7.1%)
Jimmy Rollins
	786 (29.1%)
Chase Utley
	1727 (63.8%)
Total votes = 2705

Nonetheless, reports are that Amaro has been listening to offers for the beloved 5-time all-star 2nd baseman, whose days in a Phillies uniform may be numbered.  One report says that although Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. said he didn't see "any benefit" to trading his elite pitching, he did say that if his team sells, it still has "plenty of people to trade." According to a top NL executive: "I think Chase Utley will be on the market."

The Phillies have two potential young replacements for him at 2nd base in Freddy Galvis and Cesar Hernandez. Galvis was just sent to the minor leagues, a move team officials say is to get more regular playing time.  With Utley back from injury, Galvis is sitting on the bench gathering dust.  Meanwhile, Thursday, the Phils signed infielder John McDonald, a 38 year-old journeyman from Cleveland.  McDonald is a solid fielder, but a career .236 hitter, including a paltry 2 for 38 this season for both Cleveland and Pittsburgh.  He has 16 extra base hits in his entire career, whereas Galvis has 12 just this year.

Utley's swing has been described as "textbook" perfect.

The move is curious on 2 fronts:

1) Charlie Manuel has consistently asserted that he believes Galvis is better served being a bench player in the majors than a triple-A regular, so Amaro Jr. is contradicting his manager.

2) The move seems to indicate what no Phillies fan wants to hear: that the team is hastening life after Chase Utley.  With Galvis getting more daily action, he is prepping for a likely unveiling at a regular lineup position.  As a starter for the injury-plagued Phils in May of '12, Galvis logged 102 at-bats.  He had 12 extra base hits and 18 RBI in that month alone (an over 100 RBI projection).  In the field, he was Gold Glove caliber, and Amaro and co. were gushing every day about his future with the team.

If this is in fact the waning days of Utley in a Phillies uniform, however, you can be sure there will be plenty of backlash from fans, who already witnessed departures last season of mega-popular players Pence and Victorino.  Utley, Ruiz, Lee and Rollins are the remaining favorites, with Utley immeasurably ahead of the pack.  A local poll shows Utley's esteem in fans' eyes:

Who is the Phillies' all-time best second baseman?
Napoleon Lajoie (HOF, 1896-1900)
	1035 (7.7%)
Juan Samuel (1983-89)
	645 (4.8%)
Tony Taylor (1960-71, 1974-76)
	928 (6.9%)
Manny Trillo (1979-82)
	1345 (10.0%)
Chase Utley (2003-present)
	9449 (70.5%)
Total votes = 13402

 “My plan is to stay a Phillie for life”-- Utley, 7/08

According to ESPN, Utley's contract would enable him to block a trade to all but 8 teams.

It would break my heart to see him go in a late-career castoff amidst a team in ruins.  My daughter, at age 3, could give you his full injury report. However, you have to think that his career longevity would be better served in the AL, where he could DH for years to come.  This perennial partial season dance has to be tiring for him, while playing in the field has taxed his body and shortened his career.  It has often been noted, publicly, how tiring it is for team management, especially Ruben Amaro, who has demonstrated a mounting frustration with Utley's absences over the past few years.

Utley's immortal words when he was drunk off his behind on live TV at the '08 World Series Parade are vividly recallable: "WORLD F-ING CHAMPIONS!"

The next year, '09, the Phils repeated as NL Champs and Utley tied Reggie Jackson for the all-time World Series HR record with 5 vs. Jackson's former team, the NY Yankees.

Former President and former baseball team owner George Bush Jr. famously picked Utley as the player he would most like to begin a franchise with.  (Ironically, the 2nd and only other player he named was then Blue Jay, now Phillies pitcher Roy Halladay.)


Former Phillies hitting coach Milt Thompson observed: "I don't know if there's a perfect swing. But his is as close to it as you can be. He's amazing, one of the most amazing hitters I've ever seen."

Former hitting coach and longtime Utley manager and admirer Charlie Manuel expounded on this widely held notion: "At times, he can put close to what you'd call a perfect swing on the ball.  It's good balance, rhythm, load, and at the same time getting a ball that you'd like to hit. And just, very slight, underneath the center of the ball. He's a very stylish hitter... Utley’s one of the best players in the game. You sit and watch him day in and day out, and he consistently hits the ball hard. He’s a tremendous hitter."

Utley goes all-out, all the time.

"I think he is absolutely recognized as the gamer in our game," Phils president David Montgomery once said of him. "I don't think there's any question about that."

"He's a gamer," said Jim Thome, his former teammate. "The bigger the situation, he thrives on it. And you can't teach that. Either you have it or you don't."

"I've always been taught to play the game hard," says Utley, who is perennially MLB's Hit-By-Pitch leader. "Baseball is such a tough game, it really humbles you at times. You just have to try not to get too high or too low. The harder you play this game, the more you get out of it." 

“I’ve never seen a guy as prepared as Chase,” Charlie Manuel said. “He’s always early, and he hits every day. He eats it and sleeps it. Puckett for me was the ideal baseball player until I met Chase.  I see how Utley goes about his business day in and day out, how he prepares and how he plays. He’s tremendous — his dedication, his determination... I think he’s the best player I’ve been around, and I’ve been around a long time.”

Utley's defense has more often been an asset than recognized.

One thing is certain:  If the Phils do part ways with Utley in coming weeks or even at the end of the season when his contract expires, it will absolutely be the end of an era, more than losing any other member of the team, except Rollins, who has defined this incarnation of Phillies and its swagger.  Despite his age, the Phils retained Rollins with a 3-year, $33-million deal in '11. Will they do the same for Chase?  Will he accept as few years as Rollins did?  Can he honestly contribute as effectively or play with regularity at this point in his career?  Rollins rewarded the team with a very productive '12, which included 23 HR, his usual superlative defense and an impressive 156 games played, his most since his '07 MVP season.

This is obviously a different team than the '11 incarnation.  The '11 Phils finished with a franchise best 102 wins.  They could afford to keep an aging icon of the squad.  This team is struggling below the waterline to reach .500.  Last season, management made it clear they are willing to dump payroll to protect company interest.  There is no surplus of success to ride on.  It's a belt-tightening time.  The next casualties may very well be Utley and Papelbon and will almost certainly be Ruiz after the season (due to the minor league depth the team now has at catcher).

Utley is not only a beloved Philly athlete, but has been one of its absolute best during his 11 years in a Major League uniform, all for the Phils.  He is a dedicated and active Philadelphian and has given his heart, soul and body to the team and its fans.  Two of my feature posts on him can be read by clicking the links below:

Utley Plunked, Phils Win  - September 3, 2009

With Utley, So Go the Phils - March 10, 2011

There was an article published by CBS Sports Sunday that addresses the limitations of his career due to injury.  It's a downer, but worthwhile: "The Great Chase Utley and What Could Have Been."

Meanwhile, an article this week from SI.com addresses the state of the Phillies as the trade deadline approaches.  The angle is a sobering evaluation of the team, strongly suggesting they should be sellers NOW.  The article can be read at: http://mlb.si.com/2013/06/25/as-papelbon-struggles-phillies-need-for-teardown-intensifies/.

DOMONation



Brown's easy smile & powerful swing have breathed life into the team & its fans.

In this world, hype is almost always an advertising gimmick or a sales pitch to whet our appetite and get us to invest.  However, rarely does it amount to anything near its promise.

Sometimes, though, the hype pays off and becomes the very wonder it was made out to be.

For years, we heard about #1 prospect OF Domonic Brown, but we didn't see the results.

Amidst a season of early injuries and too much mediocrity on the field, which follows a season of disappointment and squandered potential, comes just such a payoff, a rare gem of a breakout season, the likes of which comes around once or twice a Century.

Domonic Brown has 10 HR in his last 12 games, tied for the 2nd-most homers by a Phillie in a 12-game span in the modern era (since 1900). Only Mike Schmidt had more, when he hit 11 homers in a 12-game span in 1976.

After garnering NL Player of the Week honors last week, he landed #2 on ESPN's Cross-Sport Power Rankings (behind NBA player Lebron James).

"It's exciting," Howard said of Brown's emergence. "It's exciting to be a part of. It's exciting to watch."



Even Brown's celebrations are making an impact.



Brown and Howard share a ritual handshake when the Howard crosses the plate in front of Brown, who follows with a salute in which he clasps his hands.

"Brown better watch it with that weak act he's pulling after his home runs," said a MLB scout. "He's going to tick off the wrong pitcher and wind up wearing it. There are a lot of people watching who hope it changes soon. It's very unprofessional."

"We won't forget," said a member of the Marlins Tuesday.

"It might have been a little bit over the top," Phillies broadcaster Gary Matthews said. "However, in saying that, I would much rather see him do that than to walk back and put the bat in the rack after a strikeout. For me, to show enthusiasm, that's what it is all about, and it's about time to see some of that."

Thanks to Brown's contagious success at the plate, the Phils have climbed back to .500 for the first time since April 14th at 30-30.

Brown hit his 18th of the season Wednesday in a 6-1 win for a team that seems to have found its legs kicking one of the worst teams in baseball, Miami for a 3-game sweep. 

The Phils now have a 4-game win streak, their best of the year. 

Cole Hamels fulfilled some promise of his own Wednesday to the tune of his $160 Million contract.  Although he was facing MLB's worst offense, he was at top form.  In 7 innings, he struck out 11 Fish, rebounding from one of his career-worst starts last week to record just his 2nd win of the season (2-9).  If he keeps pitching like he did Wednesday, he may make it to double digits in wins by the end of Summer.

Hamels' outing represented the 41st quality start by a Phillies pitcher, more than any other team.  It's a surprising statistic for a team that has so many question marks in their starters.  However, reading between the lines, it also tells the tale of a manager who feels more confident in his team's chance to win with his starters, rather than the Russian Roulette of middle relief at his disposal. 

The Phillies have scored 27 runs in their last four games, all against last-place competition. They have scored six or more in four straight for the first time since the end of the '10 season.

"You have to thank Brown over here for really coming up huge," Hamels said. "I think that's really what has sparked the hitters. Once you have one of your hitters be comfortable at the plate, then everybody starts to do that."

On a night when Hamels fulfilled the belief the organization put in him when they made him the '13 Opening Day starter ahead of 3-time Cy Young winners Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee, the Braves managed to steal the spotlight, nonetheless. 

Twenty-two year-old Braves starter Julio Teheran took a no-hitter into the 8th and matched Hamels with 11 strike outs.  He has struck out 55 and walked 15 this year.  Impressive.

 

While the Phillies are enjoying regular fanfare of late over the sudden power they are showing, Atlanta still leads the NL in HR with 79, while the Phils are a distant 4th with a team total of 61. More pertinently, the Braves still lead the Phils by 7.5 games in the division.

The Phils are enthusiastic about winning 4-straight and should be. However, the Braves are on a 5-game win streak and have already completed win streaks of 10 and 8 this year.  The Phils are presently winners of 6-out-of-10. The Braves? 7-out-of-10. It's the old, 'Whatever you can do, I can do better.' The Phils will need to go on a tear at some point to move toward a potential playoff berth.

The Phillies have beat up on the dregs of baseball.  They need to ride this wave of enthusiasm to beat the good teams, now.  They are 14-5 against the Mets and Marlins.  They will not enjoy the luxury of playing Miami again until September.

Brown has Philly pumped up.

Meanwhile, they are 16-25 vs. the rest of baseball. 



The Phils open a 10-game road trip with a 4-game series in Milwaukee starting Thursday.  Milwaukee is in Last-Place at 22-36.  The Phils should be able to win the series.  The test in this series will be to move through their rotation and show some consistency with the bat while blossoming the buds of winning that are beginning to bloom.

Twenty of their next 26 games will be on the road.  If they can put together a lengthy streak, say win 18 of those games, they can make up some ground in the division.  If they win 13 or less, they are likely to find themselves trailing by double digits the way the Braves are playing. 

On May 15th, the Phils were 19-22, but remained 3 1/2 games behind the division-leading Braves and 2 1/2 behind the defending NL East champion Nationals.  Since then, the Phils have climbed to 2nd-Place at 30-30 to pass Washington by 1/2 a game, but have fallen behind First-Place Atlanta by an additional 4 games and now trail by 7 1/2.  In other words, while the Phils have been playing some of their most passionate and exciting baseball of the year and winning, Atlanta has more than doubled its lead over them.

The Braves can hit and they can pitch.  They have young legs and are built for the long haul, which means October and beyond.  The Phillies have become baseball's 4th-oldest team out of 30 clubs with an average age of 29.8.

The Phils will get Chooch and Utley back during this stretch of road games.  That could help.  This resurrected Brown hasn't yet hit with Utley in the lineup.  That should be interesting.

NEXT UP:

Thursday June 6th 8:10 PM EST

26 year-old Cloyd (1-2, 4.76 ERA)
at 24 year-old Peralta (4-6, 5.94 ERA)

Note: 2 unproven young pitchers, should be a hitter's night.  The Phils have the hottest hitter on the planet in Brown, so keep an eye on him.  You know Brewers' pitchers will.

Is Hamels Ace or Bluffing?

Philly is a city many athletes have cowered from playing in for the toughness with which the fans judge their own players.  Yet there is a unique aura that surrounds Cole Hamels.  Somehow, among local press and team officials, Hamels often gets a 'free pass'.  Team President David Montgomery has made clear his adoration for Hamels.  It is understandable, since at age 24 the pitcher secured the Phils' 2nd ever World Championship.  He was NL MVP, then World Series MVP in '08.  Still, in a town where we hit our own harder than we hate on the opposition, it's uncanny how many sticky predicaments Hamels has managed to escape.

Take, for example, '09.  Immediately following his postseason heroics of '08, Hamels slumped through the '09 season.

On 4/10/09 Hamels had his season debut against the Rockies. He was pounded that night for 7 runs on 11 hits in just 3 2/3 innings. "I'm concerned about him," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said then. "He had a hard time locating pitches. He had a problem with his command, locating the ball where he wanted it."

On 6/4/09 I watched Hamels pitch live at Dodger Stadium. He was brilliant. It was his best outing that year. In 9 innings, he shutout the Dodgers on 97 pitches. He struck out 5 and walked nobody. It was dominance, the kind he had made routine the previous Fall.

By August, however, he was reeling. He recorded no wins that month and in one 2-game span went a combined 10 1/3 innings, allowing 15 hits, 11 runs & 6 BB.

Yet, unflappably loyal manager Charlie Manuel continued to rely on Hamels heading into the playoffs, even after Hamels' dismal season: 10-11 for a 93-69, NL Champion team that was, literally, better without him.

Then, in the postseason, with the team marching toward an unprecedented 2nd-straight World Series Championship, Hamels played a pivotal role in ending the season short of that goal.  After allowing 206 hits in 193 innings in the regular season, Hamels went 1-2 with a 7.58 ERA in 4 postseason starts, getting pounded for 7 HR, 16 runs and 25 hits in 19 innings. 

Ultimately, you have to hold the manager responsible for looking reality in the face and ignoring it in favor of gut or instinct or wishful thinking.  There were other options: J.A. Happ coming off a career 12-4 2.93 ERA year, Joe Blanton, who had helped the Phils win the World Series the year before and had finished the season 12-8 with a 4.08 ERA.  Granted, neither of these were without concern, but bypassing both to repeatedly rely on Hamels that season was worse than insanity, it was suicide.

After all, there was no convincing yourself the regular season had been an aberration, that he would somehow resume his '08 postseason magic when Hamels had already lost Game 2 of the '09 NLDS vs. Colorado, allowing 4 runs in 5 innings, causing the team their only loss of the series.

Then, he had gotten chased in the '09 NLCS by the Dodgers, allowing 5 HR and 13 hits in 9 2/3 innings spread over 2 games.

However, defying logic, Manuel stuck with Hamels in the World Series, the team lost Game 3 and ultimately the series in 6.

Hamels did face a brief backlash from fans after his '09 crushing World Series loss to the Yankees on 10/31/09, when he surrendered 5 runs in just 4 1/3 innings. Hamels infamously told reporters after the game: "I can't wait for [the season] to end. It's been mentally draining. It's one of those things where, a year in, you just can't wait for a fresh start."

The thing is, the season hadn't ended yet.  The Phillies were still relying on him to pitch 1 more game of the World Series that they still hoped to win, so those comments stung deep, were highly publicized and often repeated, reprinted and etched in fans' memories.  They seemed to show Hamels up as the "Hollywood" guy his teammates had tagged him as, but in all the worst, most fraudulent and superficial, megalomaniac ways.

He would go on to call Phils fans: "40% Passionate die-hards, 60% crazy lunatics and fair-weather fans."  That felt personal, like it was him against us.

Still, it was understandable that Hamels felt defeated.  Less than a year after soaring through the postseason with remarkable ease, Hamels simply didn't have the stuff to compete at a high professional level.  That must have been confusing and frustrating for the then 25 year-old.

Loyal to a fault, Charlie Manuel stuck by him.  "This is all part of the process," Manuel said. "This is the first time that things have not gone his way, and he's [struggling with it]. He's never been through this before, and it's something that he will get through and probably be even better."

His teammates stuck by him too.  Well, except for starting pitcher Brett Myers, who had a physical confrontation with Hamels in the clubhouse that led to Myers being shipped off for a handful of gumballs by team President David Montgomery, who sent a clear message: "You mess with my golden child, you mess with me."

“As competitive as he is and as much as he wants to succeed, the answer is yes,” Jimmy Rollins said when asked if he thought Hamels was using '09 to push him to new levels of success in '10. “It’s about how badly he wants to be great. And he understands that in order to be great you have to make sure those things don’t happen again. You have to take away from it 'what not to do' and store it in the back of your mind.”

2/23/10, I wrote:
"Hamels has new pitches, but does he have a new work ethic? ... He has risen and fallen. This juncture is where the great ones separate themselves with big-time performance. This pivotal crossroads is the crucial year in Hamels' career."

Hamels' '10, was everything his manager had forecast. While his win-loss was only 12-11, making him an underwhelming 60-45 for his career, his ERA ranked 12th in the NL at 3.06 and he finished 6th in S.O. at 211, a career high. He had clearly learned from his mistakes and turned a corner-- the right one.

He punctuated his transformation with a knockout '10 postseason debut, 2-0 win vs. the Reds. Hamels allowed 5 hits in 9-innings, S.O. 9 and walked none against the league's #1 offense.

Then, '11 proved the next step in the right direction.  Hamels posted a career high 3 complete games, logging 216 innings, allowing just 169 hits.  He posted career highs in WAR 6.2 (4th in NL) WHIP 0.99 (2nd in NL) and ERA 2.79 (6th in NL).  His win-loss was just 14-9 for a team that finished 102-60, best in team history.  However, you could easily overlook that in light of his undeniably stellar season performance.  He was even an All-Star for the 2nd time in his career ('07 was his 1st).

'12 was the year that secured Hamels the big bucks.   The team was reeling from age and injury and failure to live up to expectation.  They lost the NL East title for the 1st time in 6 years and found themselves well out of the playoffs at a mediocre 81-81, despite being loaded with talented all-stars.  Hamels was a bright spot.  He earned his 3rd All-Star Game appearance.  He posted career highs in wins (17-6) and strikeouts (216).  His HR allowed, WHIP and ERA had actually gone up, while his WAR dropped by 33%.  However, he had emerged as the team Ace and on July 25, 2012, amidst high-flying trade rumors and speculation, he inked a contract extension that made him the highest paid Philly athlete of all time, signing a 6-year extension worth $144 million with a vesting option for a 7th year, which would raise the total to over $160 million.

The Phils had a chance to sign Hamels for $100 million the previous Fall or $115 million in the Spring.

Less than a year later, they paid 75% more for him.  A season of turmoil and failed expectations, especially from aging starters Halladay and Lee, coupled with Hamels' ascent as All-Star, coupled with S.F. starter Matt Cain's $141 million, 7-year deal penned earlier that season helped to create the perfect storm for Hamels' unfathomable cash prize.

In '13, Hamels started game 1 for the Phils as the team Ace.  He lasted just 5 innings against division rival Atlanta, allowing 3 HR and 5 ER.  Hamels is making over $20.5 Million this season.  He is 1-9 with a 4.86 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP and a 66-25 S.O./Walk ratio.  Each of those are career lows.  Alarmingly and almost inconceivably, his WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is 0.1 !  To put that in perspective, it was 1.7 during his previous worst year ('09), while (as stated) 6.2 in his best year ('11).

The 2013 Phils are 1-11 when Hamels starts, which means that without their Ace they would be 26-19, 7 games over .500.  Instead, they are 3 games below .500, 7 1/2 games out of First Place and sinking fast.
     

Hall-of-Famer, Steve 'Lefty' Carlton.

After Hamels remarkable '08 postseason, expectations were unrealistically high.  He was a CY Young favorite by many and was drawing widespread comparison to Steve Carlton both in and out of Philadelphia, which didn't sit well with me at all.

It was true that Hamels had shined in the postseason like few pitchers before. However, his regular season record that year was 14-10 for a 91-71 championship team, compared with Carlton's 27 wins, 1.97 ERA and 30 complete games for a last-place Phils club that went 59-97 in '72.

Frankly, comparisons to Carlton seemed most unfair to Hamels himself. That was Carlton's 6th full-year in the Majors, this was Hamels' 3rd. Carlton was a Hall-of-Famer, Hamels' potential was, as yet, unfulfilled and still unknown.  

People seem to want to make excuses for Hamels, blaming bad defense and poor run support, which have certainly plagued him uncannily this season.

Even Milwaukee manager Ron Roenicke defended Hamels after his Brewers tagged Hamels for a career-high 12 hits on Friday, dropping him to 1-9.  Hamels surrendered 7 runs in 5+ innings.
“It is hard to get a feel because he couldn’t have had worse luck than last night,” Roenicke said.  "To give up four cheap hits in one inning just doesn’t happen.”

At some point, Hamels will have to show more consistency from season-to-season.  It's one thing to have a bad year, even 2.  However, out of his 8 Big League years to-date, Hamels' claim to fame consists of 1 remarkable postseason of dominance ('08) and 1 17-win season ('12).  That doesn't put you in the Hall-of-Fame, even if it gets you $160 million in today's bloated entertainment market.

Hamels will likely return in '14 like he did in '10: better, sharper, more competitive.  '13 isn't even half-over.  There's hope for him this year still.  However, he was unable to turn it around in '09, and this year hearkens back to that one thusfar, after seasons of marked improvement in between.

Yes, the Phils have backed him with a paltry 24 runs in 74 innings this year.  That's 2.9 runs per game.  Still, when you're the Ace and getting paid $160 million, you have to be a stopper.  A stopper does whatever it takes to win when the team is slipping.  That's your Ace. 

Which Hamels will we see Wednesday?

Hamels is coming up absent when the Phils need him most.  Sunday, May 26th in Washington, a day the Phils were 1 win away from .500 vs. the defending NL East Champs, Hamels and his team fell victim to a pair of horrendous and costly errors by Michael and Delmon Young that broke a 0-0 tie in the 7th.  Things had seemed to be going Hamels' way, but then they went dreadfully awry.

It's the opposite when you're in your stride, performing at a high level.  Everything, even seeming chance rolls off your fingertips and lands right where you want it to.  Take, for example, the Braves.  They are doing a lot of things right and have consequently won 5-straight extra-inning games.  Luck?  It is said that "luck is when opportunity meets preparation."  So, let's not be too quick to pin all the bad breaks on anyone and everyone in Hamels' vicinity.

Friday, Hamels had only himself to blame.  Whether it's mental or mechanical-- they say he's throwing harder than ever and being hit harder, they say his changeup location is unreliable and his cutter is getting him burned by the longball-- Hamels didn't get it done.  He gave one of his career-worst efforts, setting a new personal record for hits allowed at 12 (in 5 innings).  Perhaps the weight of 1-9 is getting to him.  He better climb out of it, fast, and regain his potential.  With Halladay, Utley and Howard hurting again and the Braves young and good, he is needed more than ever.    

Brown Gives Phils Hope

Brown rounds bases for 2nd time 5/29.

Domonic Brown has finally, officially arrived.  It was well-know that Spring Training brought the seeming coming out of long lauded prospect.  Now the bell has been answered.  Tonight at Citizens Bank it rang four times, twice for Domonic Brown.

On May 26th, Brown was named NL Player of the Week.  In the 3 days since, he has hit 4 Home Runs.

Last week, Brown hit .348 (8 for 23) with two doubles, a triple, two homers and seven RBIs in six games.  In the last 3 games, he has hit .333 (4 for 12) with 4 HR and 5 RBI in 3 games.

Brown looks like the player we were all told he would be, should be, could be.  After years of short, disappointing trips to the Majors, then back down again for a dismal stretch in the minors, Brown is making good on his former #1 prospect status and all those reports that said he was the Golden One.

Now, he looks like a cleanup hitter-- or at least a #5 hitter.  In the last 5 games, Ryan Howard has struck out an improbable 12 times in 18 at-bats.  Amidst yet another injury, Howard is fading, while Brown is swelling.  Brown has doubled Howard's HR production and is showing a veteran's poise at the plate while the veteran Howard demonstrates desperation.  Brown has 35 S.O. to 9 walks.  Howard? 60 S.O. to 9 walks. It is clearly time Brown is given a regular higher slot in the order.

"He'll let me know when it's time for him to move," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said before Tuesday's game. "He's headed that way. Really, I mean that. I've developed a lot of players through the Minor Leagues and big leagues. I've had some of the best players who have ever been in baseball."

Brown-Kratz went back-to-back vs. Nationals 5/25.

"In my head, I always feel like I'm up to the task of being in the top of the order," Brown said. "That's Charlie's decision, and whenever he thinks I'm ready for it, I'll move up. Right now I'm fine where I'm at."

Brown credits a shorter, quicker swing for much of his success.  "Being around guys with short swings," he said. "You can definitely see the difference with guys like Jimmy, Utley, those guys. With that being said, I can get on the plate like those guys. Me being [6-foot-5], longer arms, I've got to be short to the baseball. Just going out, watching a lot of film and being around coaches, it's a little bit of everything."  Brown is now 2nd in the NL in HR (1 behind Atlanta's Justin Upton) and 12th in RBI.

Catcher Erik Kratz has hit 3 HR in his last 4 games and is batting .306 in May.  Brown and Kratz, who went back-to-back in the 2nd on 5/25 vs. Washington, did it again against Boston in the 4th on Wednesday.

With their win Wednesday and the Braves and Nationals' losses, the Fightin' is now 5 1/2 out of First and just a game out of 2nd.  However, there is a key statistic which is troubling:  Atlanta has outscored their opponents by 42 runs, while the Phils have been outscored by 40.   That widens the gap between First Place and, well, wherever the teams that miss the playoffs go.

The Phils are 13th out of 15 NL teams in batting and 12th in pitching.  When Jonathan Pettibone and Cliff Lee aren't pitching the team is 17-25.  Thanks to Lee (6-2, team 5-0 since May 6th when he takes the mound) and Pettibone (3-0, team 6-1 behind his starts) the Phils are within a game of .500.  The last time the Phils were at .500 was all the way back on April 14th, when they were 6-6.

Starting Pitcher Jonathan Pettibone is undefeated.

The Phils could reach .500 again Thursday in Philadelphia, while winning the series vs. Boston with a victory.  Good Luck Charm Pettibone will be on the mound.  Domonic Brown will be at the plate.

7:05 PM ET

Red Sox

(32-22, 15-10 away)

Phillies

(26-27, 12-12 home)

BOS:   Morales (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

PHI:   Pettibone (3-0, 3.21 ERA)

 

NL East Up For Grabs, Phils Add Pitcher

The NL East appeared to be one of the strongest divisions in baseball this year.  Instead, it's turned out to be "Survival of the Least Bad."  After a 12-1 start, the Braves have gone 10-17, dropping like bricks and falling to near .500 (22-18), which is what they do in recent years, but usually in September.  Meanwhile, Washington has failed to step into control in the division, puttering about at around .500 (22-19) from the start with Stephen Strasburg just 2-5.

So where does that leave the Phils (19-22)?  A shell of the team they hoped to be, but very much in contention for the division crown, a mere winning streak of, say, 8-out-of-10 from leading the pitiful pack.

The Phillies are 12-4 when Pettibone, Kyle Kendrick or John Lannan start. They're 7-17 in games started by the $64.5 million trio of Hamels, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee.

Defeat has marked Hamels' starts this year.

Cole Hamels, the Phils 7-year, $144-million star is 1-6.  Worse, the team is 1-8 in his starts. 

Hamels' 4.61 ERA ranks 79th out of 110.  He is issuing 1.6 more walks per 9 innings, while striking out 1.5 less per 9.  His changeup has been fine (batters vs.: .077 average, no HR); however, hitters have been pounding his fastball: 6 of his 9 HR-allowed have come off the pitch compared to 10 in '12.

There is every reason to believe Hamels will come around, as there is no indication he has "lost his stuff" or is plagued by any ill-health.  In fact, entering Wednesday's blowout loss to Cleveland, Hamels was lately the victim of poor run support, having recorded 6-straight quality starts with a 2.41 ERA.

Nonetheless, his troubling numbers and lack of Ace consistency is just one major piece that has not fallen into place for the Phils this season. The regular season is 1/4 done.  Carlos Ruiz, returning All-Star catcher, isn't leading the team.  Rather, after a career year in '12 in Ave. (.325), HR (16) and RBI (68) in just 114 games, Chooch has 0 HR and only 1 RBI with a .234 Ave. through 14 GP, hardly quieting concerns after serving a PED suspension.

Desperation acquisition Delmon Young (OF) has hit 1 HR, Ryan Howard is on-pace to hit just 24 this year (although he traditionally starts slow) and Roy Halladay is out indefinitely with shoulder surgery.

This was definitely not how Amaro & co. imagined it this past winter.

There's no way they expected to be pinning summer rotation hopes on Right-hander Carlos Zambrano, who just agreed to a minor league contract with the Phils.

 

Zambrano 3/9/13 World Baseball Classic

Zambrano will report this week to Clearwater, Fla., for extended spring training. The three-time All-Star hasn't pitched in the majors since last September with Miami.

Zambrano, 31, is 132-91 with a 3.66 ERA in 12 seasons, including 11 with the Chicago Cubs, averaging 14 wins with a 3.43 ERA from 2003-10. He was 16-17 with a 4.66 ERA in the past two seasons.

"We're just looking to add some starting pitching depth and some experience," said Phillies assistant general manager Scott Proefrock. "No promises were made. It's low-risk and hopefully high-reward."  The Phillies signed Zambrano with ample knowledge of his history of combustibility and controversial incidents with the Cubs.  Sounds exactly like the Delmon Young signing, which has yet to pan out.

Zambrano feuded with teammates, management and umpires in a number of high-profiles blowups.

Chicago placed Zambrano on the disqualified list with no pay and no part in team activities for 30 days in 2011. He then told team personnel he might retire.

Zambrano was placed on the restricted list for six weeks and sent to anger management in 2010 after a verbal altercation with then-teammate Derrek Lee.

In 2009, he was suspended following a tirade against an umpire in which he threw a baseball into the outfield and slammed his glove against the dugout fence.

The Phils will be tested starting Friday.  They will play 10 of their next 13 games against top-tier teams: Cincinnati,Washington and Boston (featuring Shane Victorino's return to Philly, May 29th-30th.)     

The Phils are 13th out of 15 NL teams in pitching.  They are 12th out of 15 in offense.  They have not been successful this season.  Aside from individual efforts, i.e., Chase Utley, Michael Young and Kyle Kendrick, this team has failed.  Still, they're not out of it, and that means everything.

If they can come out of the next 13 winning more than losing, they can hang on.  If they crumble under this challenge, well, its only a matter of time until someone makes a push forward in the division.  If the Phils are going to be that team, they have an opportunity to show their life and punch now against some formidable opponents.

7:05 PM ET, Friday, May 17, 2013

Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Reds (25-16, 9-10 away) Cingrani (2-0, 2.89 ERA)
at
Phillies (19-22, 9-11 home) Lee (4-2, 2.86 ERA)

Phils Make It Official

 

The Phils set an infamous mark atop the most losses in professional
sports history in '07, then won the World Series in '08.

A baseball season can be long and uniquely discombobulating.  There are times a team can appear to be floating in space like a disconnected satellite.  Often, it is deceptively unclear where a team truly stands.  Sure, there are the Standings and the Stats, which in baseball and for its analysts are always King.

However, neither tells the tale of a team's potential to move, suddenly, either up or down.  At any moment, there can be a massive slump that leads to a  great fall, like Humpty when he dumped or an unforeseeable 2nd-half climb to Wild Card and then Playoff glory, as has been the case in recent years with teams like S.F., who the Phils play tonight.

Sometimes the not knowing how good or how bad you actually are can feel like navigating on the ocean in a storm without a compass.  You can focus on the square inch of sea before you, but hopelessness and despair can seep in like fog and lead you in circles till you run out of steam.

The '64 Phils are considered the worst collapse ever.

That's the first of two reasons it was comforting when the Phillies dropped 2 at home to the Miami Marlins.  When you look square in the face of an 8-22 team, the worst team in all of baseball and drop 2-straight AT HOME to that team, you have OFFICIALLY HIT ROCK BOTTOM.  You know just where you stand.

The second reason for comfort is the fact that Phillies fans know losing.  It is second nature to our team, a team that has defined losing like no other franchise in organized sports history.



Last summer, the Phils resumed a familiar role.



All of the ups and downs of last season, the offensive woes and power outtages which have been increasing steadily the past few years and the disappointing playoff runs that ended abruptly culminated on Sunday in a demoralizing tapestry of defeat.

Saturday, the Phils took the field at Citizens Bank, the same field where we hoisted the World Series trophy 4 years ago.  I was there.  The stands were thumping so loud and so hard with anticipation of each out that the ground was literally shaking.  It was nerve-wracking, impossible, millions of Phillies' fans personal dreams being realized in the most public of ways on the international stage of a World Title.


The fan who wrote this sign in '08 may want it trashed now.



Saturday, the Phils took to that same field and fell flat on their faces.  They struck out 12 times, walked twice and managed only a single hit.  It was baseball's equivalent of a First Round Knockout.  They had their clocks cleaned and looked utterly hapless and hopeless doing it.  It couldn't have been scripted any better by the team's worst enemies, which is to say that it put a smile on the face of Dodgers and Mets fans everywhere.

You could argue, understandably, because the truth does hurt, that 20 year-old Jose Fernandez, who went 7 innings was just too good.  The problem with that theory is twofold: 

1) Fernandez had never won a major league game going into Saturday and had in fact posted the following numbers in his previous 3 starts: 13 IP, 15 hits, 11 runs, 8 BB.  Vs. the Phils Saturday?  7 IP, 1 hit, 0 runs, 1 BB, 9 S.O.  Bottom line?  Fernandez didn't suck down magic Nolan Ryan potion Saturday morning, the Phils were really that inept. 

2) Once Fernandez had left the game, the Phils struck out 3 times and went hit-less in their final 6 outs.  Two of those strikeouts were to closer Steve Cishek, whose ERA coming into the game was 5.25.  (Also not Nolan Ryan.)  Translation: The Phils were lifeless, down and out, out for the count and whatever other sports cliches you want to tag on to a dead duck.  Their 3-4-5 hitters (Utley-Howard-D.Young) posted a combined for 0-for-10 with SEVEN strikeouts!  Hard to believe.

Sunday, they had a chance at redemption.  They had Roy Halladay, their two-time Cy Young winning ace on the mound.  Halladay promptly surrendered 9 earned runs and 4 walks in just 2 1/3 innings.  Halladay was subsequently placed on the DL.  While it would be comforting to blame his drastic and staggering failure and in turn the team's on his ailing and aging body, the truth is of a less settling nature.  The 3 relief pitchers who followed his foray into a blistering and damning dagger-to-the-heart 14-2 loss to the worst team in all of baseball fared just the same as the injured Halladay.

During the remaining 6 2/3 innings, Valdes, Durbin and Horst surrendered 9 hits, 5 runs and 2 HR to a Marlins team that ranks 30th out of 30 MLB teams in runs, batting average and slugging percentage (they are 29th in on base percentage).  If only the Marlins could play every game against the Phils.  The 4 Phillies pitchers left the game with ERAs of 8.65, 7.00, 6.75 and 6.59.  This from a team that was recently proud leaders in pitching.  Today, the Phillies, who are near the bottom in every offensive category (24th in runs, 25th in batting average and 27th in both slugging percentage and on base percentage), are startlingly 26th in baseball with a 4.51 team ERA.

In short, they can't hit, they can't pitch, and they're old.


Phils presently promising more sleepless nights.

The Marlins came into Philly as the laughing stock of the professional sports world and left with their heads high on just their SECOND WINNING STREAK of the season.  If they could only play in Citizens Bank Park every night, the Fish might be in First Place.  The Phils had a chance, at home, to reach .500 for the first time since they were 6-6 after beating the Marlins on April 14th.  Instead they fell to 4 games under against a team that dropped 9-of-10 to start the year.

For weeks we heard talk from the team and local media that Ruiz and Delmon Young were riding in on white horses to save the season, much like Utley-Howard were expected to do in 2012.  Utley-Howard nearly did, vindicating front office claims that the product they were putting on the field was quality and competitive.  However, the difference between Utley-Howard and Ruiz-D. Young is that the former have MVP and All-Star honors while the latter are most recently known for their steroid use and hate-crime harassment charges. 

Ruiz and D. Young can't save this team any more than an umbrella can stop an avalanche.

Now, we're hearing that shutting down Doc will pave the road to success for the 2013 Phils.  Somehow, we're supposed to believe that deleting the staff Ace, a future Hall-of-Famer who has won Cy Young in both leagues is a great sign of good things to come.  Pardon me if I'm not buying it.

Now, after going 2-4 against 2 last-place teams, the Phils will spend the next 7 games on the road battling 2 winning teams with playoff potential, S.F. and Arizona.  Then, they will return home to host the Indians, who swept them last week and Cincinnati, another top-tier playoff caliber team.



Are these our final days with Utley?

The road ahead is long and hard.  The Phils, old and weak, appear unprepared.  The next few weeks will determine if the Phils will be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline.  I don't think there's any misreading which one they are today.  In short, this may be the last we see of Lee and Utley.  Who knows who else?  Last season, the team parted ways with high salary outfielders Pence and Victorino, each of whom was beloved by fans and is presently playing for a First Place team.  We were promised big name free agent outfield replacements and got castoff bargain basement buy Delmon Young and in-house perennial disappointment Domonic Brown instead.  Both have upside potential, Brown especially, but each comes with not a hint of capital risk.

Now, it seems apparent that the front office had another plan when they passed on adding big names this off-season.  Perhaps they saw the writing on the wall.  Perhaps they read 2012 as the beginning of the end.  Perhaps they saw that the end of 2013 would bring welcome relief in the end of Utley and Halladay's contracts, feeling that the only place to go from here is youth and rebuilding. 

Utley, for his part, has done as much as anyone could ask.  He has played every game and leads the team in HR and RBI. 

The team is still married to Hamels, Lee and Howard.  Lee would be a prize on the open market, although Howard is unmoveable due to his overblown salary.  He is making $20 million this year and has posted virtually the same HR-RBI production as Domonic Brown, who is making $500,000.  Cole Hamels appears untouchable, since he is the darling of team owner David Montgomery. 



Cliff Lee must show Ace-like consistency.

Cliff Lee has been particularly confounding of late.  After a fantastic start (3 games, 2-0, 1.52 ERA) he has surrendered a whopping 26 hits and 13 runs in 18 innings, while the team has lost all of his last 4 starts.

It's a long season.  There are 132 games remianing, plenty of opportunity for turnaround, both individual and collective.  If the Phillies are going to right this sinking ship, it will have to be first and foremost through their starting pitching.  By the end of 2010, management realised this was no longer a hitting team and retooled to unveil the 4 aces for 2011.  The result?  The best record in team history.  Now, Hamels and Lee will have to combine to fill the shoes of fallen star Ace Halladay.  They can, they've even shown flashes of it in the early going this season.  Meanwhile, the Phils will need contribution from Ruiz (.100), Rollins (.236), Delmon Young (.150) or Revere (.212).  They will need at least 2 of those 4 to find life-- and fast.

Finally, there needs to be a reliable long-term middle reliever.  Perhaps whoever they call up to take Halladay's roster spot (Tyler Cloyd?) will stay on in that role.  Charlie Manuel finally has a bridge to Jonathan Papelbon.  He needs at least one reliable long middle reliever during games where his starter exits early or on days when Aumont, Adams and Bastardo (best served in spot appearances or as set-up men) are spent. 

All of that is a tall order.  Can it happen?  With quality baseball intelligence in the Phils front office, fine tuning is always an option via trade and minor league promotion.  However, remember this: the wick is short on the current incarnation.  Whether we are buyers or sellers in a few short weeks is being determined, nightly, on the field.   

Opportunity is Knocking

Today the Phillies begin a 6-game stretch that could define the first half of their season.  Fresh off their first series sweep of the season against the Mets, the Phils will go to Cleveland, then return home to face Miami.  Those two teams have a combined record of 17-32 for a .347 winning %.

'12 All-Star Ruiz will be back at the plate and behind it.

The Phillies will have '12 All-Star catcher Carlos Ruiz and will likely have '12 ALCS MVP Delmon Young (OF) join the team during this stretch.  They have a rejuvenated Roy Halladay (1.09 WHIP) and a finally up-to-speed with a win under his belt Cole Hamels (1-3, 4.78 ERA) in a rotation that has been led by a dominant Cliff Lee (1.04 WHIP), supported by a strong Kyle Kendrick (rotation leading 2.41 ERA) and boosted lately by fill-in rookie Jonathan Pettibone.

With the starting pitching finally coming around, it's time for the bullpen to shake its shakiness of recent years, which has plagued and continues to plague the team. 

Furthermore, the Phils rank 10th out of 15 NL teams in both runs scored and HR, while they are 3rd in team batting average.  One of the reasons for this puzzling inconsistency is lack of patience at the plate.  When the team parted ways with Jayson Werth, they also initiated a troubling trend.  Werth perennially led the majors in pitches-per-at-bat, which is a key statistic.  It not only tires out pitchers, but enables the hitters to adjust timing and therefore hit the pitcher more easily.  The '13 Phils are 14th of 15 NL and 28th of 30 MLB teams in BB.  That hurts.  It extends the life of opponents' pitchers and puts the team's batters at a rhythm disadvantage.

Nonetheless, 6 1/2 games out of First Place just last week, the Phils are 4 1/2 back now.  Considering their 6-10 start, things could be a lot worse.

This is the time to strike.  The Braves and Nationals, the 2 teams ahead of them in the division, play game 2 of a 4-game series tonight.  The Phils can gain ground on one if not both teams during this stretch.  They will have Chooch and Young join the lineup.  They have upside potential in every way for these match-ups.

The Phils have been losers at home for too long,
and it's not only this guy's fault.

One troubling statistic thus-far this season in the continued trend of losing at home.  In '12, the Phils finished 40-41 at Citizens Bank Park.  In '13, they are 6-8 there and went 3-5 on their latest home-stand.  (Even in '11, when they broke the club record for wins, they won only 2 more games at home than on the road, hardly a home-field advantage).

Obviously, they must change this trend if they are to get back to the postseason.  This disconcerting statistic is supported by what manager Charlie Manuel has defined as the cause for the team's woes: "pressing."  “I think they’re trying,” Manuel said last week. “Maybe a little bit too hard."  The theory being that they are acting from the weight of pressure rather than playing to their ability.  This explanation also serves as a reason for the simultaneous high batting average and low run production.  Their trouble isn't getting hits, it's hitting when they most need to, i.e., with Runners in Scoring Position.

While sweeping the Mets over the weekend, the Phils scored 18 runs on 30 hits in 3 games. Now they must convert that effort into some consistency.  The team's resurgent offensive bounce came after they were shutout 3 times in 8 games last week and Charlie Manuel, who was thrown out of a game, shook up the lineup, splitting Utley and Howard with 3B Michael Young, who is 7th in the NL in hitting with a .352 average.

Sunday it was Ryan Howard again to the pinch hit rescue.  Howard pounded a 2-out, 2-run 7th inning  pinch-hit double to snap a 1-1 tie and put the Phils up for good.  Howard is now 16-for-38, a .421 ave., in his career as a pinch-hitter.  That ranks him #1 in all of MLB among active players with at least 25 pinch-hit AB.

If the Phils can beat Cleveland and Miami, which any decent team should do handily, they could-- and really should-- find themselves over .500 for the first time since they were 6-6 on April 14th.  It all starts now.

Game 1 of 2 in Cleveland is tonight:

PHI:   Roy Halladay (2-2, 5.08 ERA)

vs.

CLE:  Zach McAllister (1-3, 3.52 ERA)

Notes: 

"Roy Halladay is far and away the most important player in the division," one MLB scout said this preseason. "Which guy we see will determine the Phillies' fate."

'12 was wrought with injury and defeat for Halladay, whose 4.49 ERA was his worst in 12 years. His Spring was worse still, then he began '13 by allowing 12 runs in 7 1/3 inning and falling to 0-2.  Hopefully, that was rock bottom.  

"I think coming out of spring training, having short outings, having some poor outings, coming back wanting to prove that I was healthy, my focus wasn't on making pitches," Halladay said.

"My focus was on trying to prove something that necessarily didn't need to be proven."  The two-time Cy Young Award winner has gone 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA over his last 3 starts.

"It's not a boxing match," Halladay said. "It's not strength vs. strength. It's a chess match. It's competition of the mind and execution and being smarter and being more prepared."

Ryan Howard is red-hot after a 4-for-27 start to the season.  He's batting .351 during a 10-game hitting streak and has driven in 10 runs over the last 5 games.