Is Hamels Ace or Bluffing?

Philly is a city many athletes have cowered from playing in for the toughness with which the fans judge their own players.  Yet there is a unique aura that surrounds Cole Hamels.  Somehow, among local press and team officials, Hamels often gets a 'free pass'.  Team President David Montgomery has made clear his adoration for Hamels.  It is understandable, since at age 24 the pitcher secured the Phils' 2nd ever World Championship.  He was NL MVP, then World Series MVP in '08.  Still, in a town where we hit our own harder than we hate on the opposition, it's uncanny how many sticky predicaments Hamels has managed to escape.

Take, for example, '09.  Immediately following his postseason heroics of '08, Hamels slumped through the '09 season.

On 4/10/09 Hamels had his season debut against the Rockies. He was pounded that night for 7 runs on 11 hits in just 3 2/3 innings. "I'm concerned about him," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said then. "He had a hard time locating pitches. He had a problem with his command, locating the ball where he wanted it."

On 6/4/09 I watched Hamels pitch live at Dodger Stadium. He was brilliant. It was his best outing that year. In 9 innings, he shutout the Dodgers on 97 pitches. He struck out 5 and walked nobody. It was dominance, the kind he had made routine the previous Fall.

By August, however, he was reeling. He recorded no wins that month and in one 2-game span went a combined 10 1/3 innings, allowing 15 hits, 11 runs & 6 BB.

Yet, unflappably loyal manager Charlie Manuel continued to rely on Hamels heading into the playoffs, even after Hamels' dismal season: 10-11 for a 93-69, NL Champion team that was, literally, better without him.

Then, in the postseason, with the team marching toward an unprecedented 2nd-straight World Series Championship, Hamels played a pivotal role in ending the season short of that goal.  After allowing 206 hits in 193 innings in the regular season, Hamels went 1-2 with a 7.58 ERA in 4 postseason starts, getting pounded for 7 HR, 16 runs and 25 hits in 19 innings. 

Ultimately, you have to hold the manager responsible for looking reality in the face and ignoring it in favor of gut or instinct or wishful thinking.  There were other options: J.A. Happ coming off a career 12-4 2.93 ERA year, Joe Blanton, who had helped the Phils win the World Series the year before and had finished the season 12-8 with a 4.08 ERA.  Granted, neither of these were without concern, but bypassing both to repeatedly rely on Hamels that season was worse than insanity, it was suicide.

After all, there was no convincing yourself the regular season had been an aberration, that he would somehow resume his '08 postseason magic when Hamels had already lost Game 2 of the '09 NLDS vs. Colorado, allowing 4 runs in 5 innings, causing the team their only loss of the series.

Then, he had gotten chased in the '09 NLCS by the Dodgers, allowing 5 HR and 13 hits in 9 2/3 innings spread over 2 games.

However, defying logic, Manuel stuck with Hamels in the World Series, the team lost Game 3 and ultimately the series in 6.

Hamels did face a brief backlash from fans after his '09 crushing World Series loss to the Yankees on 10/31/09, when he surrendered 5 runs in just 4 1/3 innings. Hamels infamously told reporters after the game: "I can't wait for [the season] to end. It's been mentally draining. It's one of those things where, a year in, you just can't wait for a fresh start."

The thing is, the season hadn't ended yet.  The Phillies were still relying on him to pitch 1 more game of the World Series that they still hoped to win, so those comments stung deep, were highly publicized and often repeated, reprinted and etched in fans' memories.  They seemed to show Hamels up as the "Hollywood" guy his teammates had tagged him as, but in all the worst, most fraudulent and superficial, megalomaniac ways.

He would go on to call Phils fans: "40% Passionate die-hards, 60% crazy lunatics and fair-weather fans."  That felt personal, like it was him against us.

Still, it was understandable that Hamels felt defeated.  Less than a year after soaring through the postseason with remarkable ease, Hamels simply didn't have the stuff to compete at a high professional level.  That must have been confusing and frustrating for the then 25 year-old.

Loyal to a fault, Charlie Manuel stuck by him.  "This is all part of the process," Manuel said. "This is the first time that things have not gone his way, and he's [struggling with it]. He's never been through this before, and it's something that he will get through and probably be even better."

His teammates stuck by him too.  Well, except for starting pitcher Brett Myers, who had a physical confrontation with Hamels in the clubhouse that led to Myers being shipped off for a handful of gumballs by team President David Montgomery, who sent a clear message: "You mess with my golden child, you mess with me."

“As competitive as he is and as much as he wants to succeed, the answer is yes,” Jimmy Rollins said when asked if he thought Hamels was using '09 to push him to new levels of success in '10. “It’s about how badly he wants to be great. And he understands that in order to be great you have to make sure those things don’t happen again. You have to take away from it 'what not to do' and store it in the back of your mind.”

2/23/10, I wrote:
"Hamels has new pitches, but does he have a new work ethic? ... He has risen and fallen. This juncture is where the great ones separate themselves with big-time performance. This pivotal crossroads is the crucial year in Hamels' career."

Hamels' '10, was everything his manager had forecast. While his win-loss was only 12-11, making him an underwhelming 60-45 for his career, his ERA ranked 12th in the NL at 3.06 and he finished 6th in S.O. at 211, a career high. He had clearly learned from his mistakes and turned a corner-- the right one.

He punctuated his transformation with a knockout '10 postseason debut, 2-0 win vs. the Reds. Hamels allowed 5 hits in 9-innings, S.O. 9 and walked none against the league's #1 offense.

Then, '11 proved the next step in the right direction.  Hamels posted a career high 3 complete games, logging 216 innings, allowing just 169 hits.  He posted career highs in WAR 6.2 (4th in NL) WHIP 0.99 (2nd in NL) and ERA 2.79 (6th in NL).  His win-loss was just 14-9 for a team that finished 102-60, best in team history.  However, you could easily overlook that in light of his undeniably stellar season performance.  He was even an All-Star for the 2nd time in his career ('07 was his 1st).

'12 was the year that secured Hamels the big bucks.   The team was reeling from age and injury and failure to live up to expectation.  They lost the NL East title for the 1st time in 6 years and found themselves well out of the playoffs at a mediocre 81-81, despite being loaded with talented all-stars.  Hamels was a bright spot.  He earned his 3rd All-Star Game appearance.  He posted career highs in wins (17-6) and strikeouts (216).  His HR allowed, WHIP and ERA had actually gone up, while his WAR dropped by 33%.  However, he had emerged as the team Ace and on July 25, 2012, amidst high-flying trade rumors and speculation, he inked a contract extension that made him the highest paid Philly athlete of all time, signing a 6-year extension worth $144 million with a vesting option for a 7th year, which would raise the total to over $160 million.

The Phils had a chance to sign Hamels for $100 million the previous Fall or $115 million in the Spring.

Less than a year later, they paid 75% more for him.  A season of turmoil and failed expectations, especially from aging starters Halladay and Lee, coupled with Hamels' ascent as All-Star, coupled with S.F. starter Matt Cain's $141 million, 7-year deal penned earlier that season helped to create the perfect storm for Hamels' unfathomable cash prize.

In '13, Hamels started game 1 for the Phils as the team Ace.  He lasted just 5 innings against division rival Atlanta, allowing 3 HR and 5 ER.  Hamels is making over $20.5 Million this season.  He is 1-9 with a 4.86 ERA, a 1.34 WHIP and a 66-25 S.O./Walk ratio.  Each of those are career lows.  Alarmingly and almost inconceivably, his WAR (Wins Above Replacement) is 0.1 !  To put that in perspective, it was 1.7 during his previous worst year ('09), while (as stated) 6.2 in his best year ('11).

The 2013 Phils are 1-11 when Hamels starts, which means that without their Ace they would be 26-19, 7 games over .500.  Instead, they are 3 games below .500, 7 1/2 games out of First Place and sinking fast.
     

Hall-of-Famer, Steve 'Lefty' Carlton.

After Hamels remarkable '08 postseason, expectations were unrealistically high.  He was a CY Young favorite by many and was drawing widespread comparison to Steve Carlton both in and out of Philadelphia, which didn't sit well with me at all.

It was true that Hamels had shined in the postseason like few pitchers before. However, his regular season record that year was 14-10 for a 91-71 championship team, compared with Carlton's 27 wins, 1.97 ERA and 30 complete games for a last-place Phils club that went 59-97 in '72.

Frankly, comparisons to Carlton seemed most unfair to Hamels himself. That was Carlton's 6th full-year in the Majors, this was Hamels' 3rd. Carlton was a Hall-of-Famer, Hamels' potential was, as yet, unfulfilled and still unknown.  

People seem to want to make excuses for Hamels, blaming bad defense and poor run support, which have certainly plagued him uncannily this season.

Even Milwaukee manager Ron Roenicke defended Hamels after his Brewers tagged Hamels for a career-high 12 hits on Friday, dropping him to 1-9.  Hamels surrendered 7 runs in 5+ innings.
“It is hard to get a feel because he couldn’t have had worse luck than last night,” Roenicke said.  "To give up four cheap hits in one inning just doesn’t happen.”

At some point, Hamels will have to show more consistency from season-to-season.  It's one thing to have a bad year, even 2.  However, out of his 8 Big League years to-date, Hamels' claim to fame consists of 1 remarkable postseason of dominance ('08) and 1 17-win season ('12).  That doesn't put you in the Hall-of-Fame, even if it gets you $160 million in today's bloated entertainment market.

Hamels will likely return in '14 like he did in '10: better, sharper, more competitive.  '13 isn't even half-over.  There's hope for him this year still.  However, he was unable to turn it around in '09, and this year hearkens back to that one thusfar, after seasons of marked improvement in between.

Yes, the Phils have backed him with a paltry 24 runs in 74 innings this year.  That's 2.9 runs per game.  Still, when you're the Ace and getting paid $160 million, you have to be a stopper.  A stopper does whatever it takes to win when the team is slipping.  That's your Ace. 

Which Hamels will we see Wednesday?

Hamels is coming up absent when the Phils need him most.  Sunday, May 26th in Washington, a day the Phils were 1 win away from .500 vs. the defending NL East Champs, Hamels and his team fell victim to a pair of horrendous and costly errors by Michael and Delmon Young that broke a 0-0 tie in the 7th.  Things had seemed to be going Hamels' way, but then they went dreadfully awry.

It's the opposite when you're in your stride, performing at a high level.  Everything, even seeming chance rolls off your fingertips and lands right where you want it to.  Take, for example, the Braves.  They are doing a lot of things right and have consequently won 5-straight extra-inning games.  Luck?  It is said that "luck is when opportunity meets preparation."  So, let's not be too quick to pin all the bad breaks on anyone and everyone in Hamels' vicinity.

Friday, Hamels had only himself to blame.  Whether it's mental or mechanical-- they say he's throwing harder than ever and being hit harder, they say his changeup location is unreliable and his cutter is getting him burned by the longball-- Hamels didn't get it done.  He gave one of his career-worst efforts, setting a new personal record for hits allowed at 12 (in 5 innings).  Perhaps the weight of 1-9 is getting to him.  He better climb out of it, fast, and regain his potential.  With Halladay, Utley and Howard hurting again and the Braves young and good, he is needed more than ever.