Monday, July 18, 2016

Nola Returns To Form

1st inning of Nola's rebound performance.
The 49-42 Marlins arrived at Citizens Bank Park Monday for a 4-game series against the 43-50 Phils.

All-Star 23-year-old ace Jose Fernandez  (11-4, 2.52 ERA) got the start for Miami vs. Phils fallen ace Aaron Nola  (5-8, 4.69).

The Phils were coming off a loss where they managed only 1 hit vs. the Mets.

Enter Fernandez's 8-2 record, 1.71 ERA and 107 S.O. over 73 2/3 innings in his last 11 starts. 

Nola's First Half was filled with highlights, followed by some lows. Over his first 12 starts, the 23-year-old right-hander had a 2.65 ERA, ranked 6th in the majors with a 0.99 WHIP (behind a group that included Cy Young winners Clayton Kershaw and Jake Arrieta and All-Star Jon Lester) and 4th in strikeouts-to-walks ratio.

He misplaced his signature ability to locate the baseball down and on the corners over his next 5 starts, went 0-4 with a 13.50 ERA and was roughed up for 38 hits and 27 earned runs in 18 innings over that span.

The 23-year-old saw his most-recent scheduled start skipped to allow him some mental peace, which he found on a pond in Louisiana during the all-star break, where he caught 20 bass in a 2-day span.

Nola, great again.
"It was good to get home and see my family and do some fishing,” Nola said Sunday.  "That keeps me calm.  It keeps my mind in a better state.  I think [the time off] helped me. I had a lot of support behind me and a lot of advice. ... just staying positive and believing in yourself."

“My body’s healthy, I don’t really think it’s a mental break,” Nola said of his recent trouble on the mound. “Mentally, I feel fine. I just felt like the past month, I struggled.”

Nola made good on his claim Monday when he stymied Miami with 6 dazzling innings of perfection, allowing just 2 hits, 0 runs and S.O. 5 to just 1 walk.

"Good news was Nola," said manager Pete Mackanin after the game. "He pitched really well. He was painting the corners. It was very encouraging."

"Just try to get lower strikes instead of trying to hit a corner," Nola said of his goals for Monday's start. "So I feel like that's where I got myself in trouble."

"I think he was back to being himself, he was confident," catcher Cameron Rupp said. "He probably had a little fatigue [in June]. First full big-league season, just 23 years old. It seemed like he went seven, eight innings in almost every start, so he probably just ran out of juice."

"He was painting to both sides of the plate," Mackanin said. "He was outstanding, keeping the ball down, at and below the knees. It was great to see, very encouraging."

Fernandez, meanwhile, was dynamite for Miami.  He S.O. a career high 14 in 6 1/3, but left trailing 2-0.

Joseph has been rounding a lot of bases lately.
Tommy Joseph contributed to that deficit with his 12th HR in just 160 AB (a 42 HR season pace), a solo shot to leadoff the 7th.  Joseph is now hitting .400 with 4 HR in 30 AB in July and 4 HR in his last 11 games.
    
However, with 2 out in the top of the 9th, Jeanmar Gomez blew the save when he surrendered 2 runs on a single, a double, a wild pitch, a walk and another single.  It was only his 3rd blown save in 28 tries.

Knotted at 2-2, the game went to extra innings, but the Phils lost in 11 innings when 3B Martin Prado hit just his 3rd HR of the year, which was Phils reliever Brett Oberholtzer's 3rd pitch of the game.

Arguably the league's best closer, All-Star A.J. Ramos closed the door for Miami, his 30th save in 31 tries.

The formative Marlins took over the final Wild Card spot with a Mets loss to the Cubs.

The Phils need Franco to heat up again.
The Phils offense finished the First Half on a tear. They scored 130 runs from 6/11 to the All-Star Break, which ranked #6 in the NL, and their 36 HR during that span was #3.  Peter Bourjos, Maikel Franco, Cesar Hernandez and Cameron Rupp each hit over .315 during that span.

However, the Phils have opened the Second Half ice cold scoring 2.25 runs per game and losing 3 of their first 4 games.  Bourjos is 1-12, Franco 1-16, Hernandez 0-16 and Rupp 2-10 for a combined .074 (4-54) in those games.

Miami improved to 6-1 in their last 7 games.  The Phillies fell to 36-3 when leading after 8 innings.

The Phils offense needs to wake up in a hurry if they are going to stay alive in the Wild Card race.  They went into the break 6 back and have already dropped to 8 GB in the playoff hunt.

Still, the silver lining Monday was a huge upside: Aaron Nola, their ace, looked like himself again for the first time since 6/5.   That was a key revival.

Nola debuted almost exactly 1 year ago in MLB.
The fact remains that Nola's struggles the past month may prove, in the long run, his greatest strength.  He never had to grapple with failure like that at any level of the game.  It has been almost too easy for him.  Former team ace Cole Hamels always asserted that breakdowns led to his best achievements.  The same can hopefully be true for Nola.  He took the next step to making it true Monday.

After all, as fun to follow as this team is, the eye remains on the future with Nola a key piece of that puzzle.

The Double-A Reading Fightin' Phils (66-29) have a 9 game lead over the entire Eastern League, the best record in professional baseball and a multitude of solid prospects that could be part of the Phillies' next playoff team.

Since his promotion from A Clearwater 2 weeks ago, OF Andrew Pullin is hitting .420 at AA, while RF Dylan Cozens has slugged 25 HR and 29 2B in 350 AB this year for Reading, who lead their league in almost every offensive category, including average and HR.

RHP Vince Velasquez (8-2, 3.32 ERA) starts for the Phillies on Tuesday night. RHP Jose Urena (1-1, 7.52) will make his first start this season for Miami.

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