Saving Best For Last?

Domonic Brown gives fans reason to believe.

''It's pretty exciting, actually, for us to have gotten ourselves back in the race and to play a little bit better baseball,'' General Manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said during the All-Star Break. ''Our pitching has been great, our starting pitching has been outstanding, kind of carrying us. We've swung the bats a little better.  It's nice to see guys improve.''

The Phils begin the Second Half of the season today trailing First Place Atlanta by 6 1/2 games in the division and are now 5 1/2 games out in the Wild Card race.

''We're finding ways to win and earlier we were finding ways to lose,'' shortstop Jimmy Rollins said. ''What's meaningful is we're not out of the race. No matter how good you are, you're going to lose 50 games and you're going to win 50 games. It's those 62 that really make the difference. It's going to come down to the last weekend like it has the last couple of years.'' 

Last weekend, the Phils finished the First Half of the season by winning 2 out of 3 games against the White Sox-- all played in extra innings.  Between the Saturday double header and the Sunday day game series finale, the Phils played 34 innings of baseball in about 24 hrs.  That's 3.8 games of innings in 1 day.  "You go out with as much as you have, but there wasn't much left in anybody's tank," Rollins said.

Good thing they followed it up with 4 days off.

"We have a lot ahead of us, but at the same time we will take four days for what we can and plug away for 10 weeks," Cole Hamels said Sunday after delivering his 3rd-straight stellar outing.  

Of course, Domonic Brown and Cliff Lee weren't resting.  They were at the All-Star Game, where Brown struck-out on 3 pitches to Brett Cecil of the Blue Jays, who came into the game just face him, then promptly exited.  Lee, meanwhile, appeared in relief in the 5th and allowed 2 immediate hits, then a run in his lone inning of work.  None of that matters, of course, in the standings. 

The standings, these days, are finally looking brighter than they have in a long time.  For now, it means trade talk involving Chase Utley and "blowing things up" have quieted.  Of course, that could change at any time.

''They're going to make decisions based on where we are in the standings,'' Rollins said. ''So if we come out in the Second Half and start out hot, then they're going to make a decision according to that. There are no easy or difficult decisions; it's just what's necessary.''

''I guess you never know what can happen but I've never envisioned wearing another team's uniform,'' Utley said.  ''We have a good group of guys in this clubhouse.  We're all prepared to win on a daily basis, and I think that's the most important thing."

''We're trying to add,'' Amaro said in response to the ever-present question of whether the team will be buyers or sellers at the July 31 trade deadline. ''It's hard to add and subtract at the same time. You can do it, but we'll probably be in the add mode more than anything else.''

The Phils finished the First Half 8-and-3, wetting the fans appetite that they were finally showing their true potential and encouraging all that, as has been their trend in recent years, they were saving best for last.  Is there reason to believe this is something more than fantasy? 

In keeping with 'best for last,' "3 Reasons to Believe" will follow "3 Reasons Not to":

3 Reasons Not to Believe

CF Ben Revere is out 6-8 weeks.

1) Injuries.  The Phils lost 2-time Cy Young Roy Halladay to shoulder surgery in May.  Halladay, 36, had surgery to remove bone spurs and repair both a frayed labrum and a partially torn rotator cuff.  He is one of 5 pitchers to have ever won the Cy  Young in both leagues.  One of the 4 pitched for the Phillies in the modern era.  Can you name him?  (Trivia answer later in this article.)

"It looks very, very good," pitching coach Rich Dubee said. "The arm action, he's able to get his arm back up very easily. No effort at all. Whereas before, because of the stuff that he had going on in his shoulder, he couldn't get it up on a consistent basis. But now his arm slot is fantastic and he's doing very, very well so far. He's a long ways from pitching, but everything so far is going according to plan."

As Halladay is a free agent at the end of this season, he may never pitch for the Phillies again.

As if losing Halladay wasn't enough, longtime cleanup hitter and former MVP Ryan Howard joined him on the DL when he underwent knee surgery earlier this month.  Both are healing just fine.  Still, that's $40,000,000 on the DL.

Then, 25 year-old lead-off hitter Ben Revere added his  $515,000 to the conversation.  Revere has a 10-game hitting streak and raised his average from .200 on May 1 to .305, including .354 in June and .388 in July.

However, when he broke his foot on a freak incident by fouling the ball off it, he may have halted the Phils win streak and altered the course of the season.  Revere underwent successful foot surgery on Tuesday, and will miss six-to-eight weeks.  Ouch!-- for him and the Phils.  The offense finally seemed to be clicking behind Revere's charge.  Now they will see him re-acclimating to MLB at best in early to mid-September.

2) Much has been made of the Phils -45 Run Differential (runs scored vs. runs allowed).  There's a reason for that.  The only 3 NL teams with a worse RD are in last place in their respective divisions (S.D., Miami, Milwaukee).

3) Pitching wins games. They won a team record 102 games in 2011 behind the Fab Four starting pitchers.  Well, only 2 of those 4 are now pitching for the Phils and only 1 had a successful, winning First Half.  But wait, it actually gets worse.  The bullpen has been poor, leading to the team's ranking 11th out of 15 NL teams in ERA at 4.03.  Recently, the Phils bullpen had a 5.21 ERA (since June 8th), 27th in MLB.

Last week, Charlie Manuel identified a right-handed bullpen arm as the team's top need at the trade deadline:  “I think for us to have a real good bullpen, we definitely have to have an 8th-inning game – a solid, right-handed pitching 8th-inning guy to go with Bastardo. Bastardo’s good when we can match him against lefties.” 

Cuban pitcher Gonzalez would make an immediate impact.

There's talk of the Phils acquiring 26-year-old Cuban defector Miguel Alfredo Gonzalez, possibly for immediate bullpen relief.  The U.S. government cleared him this week, and he has been throwing to attract several teams, especially the Phils, Braves and Blue Jays.  Gonzalez has 3 years pro experience playing for the Cuban National Team.  He is expected to sign with a Major League Club any day now for a deal in the neighborhood of five-years, $60 million.  He throws a mid-90's fastball (peaking at 95), a curve, a change-up and a forkball.

The likelihood of them acquiring a significant Major League bullpen arm for minor league talent in a trade is unlikely, as they now know they must cultivate their talent and keep an eye on the future, while trying to win now with predominately what they have.  (Free agency in the offseason is always an option.)  The only player likely to be moved at this point with the team in playoff range at the Break is 3B Michael Young.  He is replaceable for the Phils with Freddy Galvis and Cody Asche waiting in the minors, but may command a bullpen arm from a team looking for veteran presence in their infield (something the Phils are loaded with).

All of this is maybe.  Right now, the Phils haven't successfully bridged the gap from their Quality Starts (62, #1 in MLB) to closer Jonathan Papelbon (20 saves, 0.91 WHIP).  That's a gaping hole in their ability to win.

3 Reasons to Believe

1) The Phils are a winning team.  It's true that the Phils current 8-and-3 run do not a season make.  Even with the 2 playoff Wild Card spots in MLB today, you have to win close to 90 to get in.  However, a closer look shows that the Phils are surprisingly 32-27 (.542 win %) since they were 16-21 on May 10th.  Also, since '07, their Second Half winning percentage is .630.  That doesn't mean it will happen again, but history is the best predictor of what is yet to come.

Yes, they lost pivotal players during the First Half, but doesn't that mean they're stronger and more resilient, deeper and more balanced then some of the other teams in the playoff race?  Maybe the Phils injuries are behind them and other teams' are yet to come.  The Phils may even get some of their injured players back as an added boost down the stretch.

Hamels in July has been just what the Phillies need.

2) Cole Hamels.  Hamels started the year 1-9 with a 4.86 ERA-- ouch.  However, his July tells a different tale: 2-0, 1.57 ERA, 19 S.O., 1 walk.  If that's any indication of his Second Half to come and if Cliff Lee's 10-3, 2.86 ERA forecasts his, the Phils 1-2 punch could rival any in baseball.  That could pay dividends down the stretch and into October.

“I didn’t get the job done early. I need to take it up a notch from here on out," Hamels said last week.  “We know the caliber of team we have. We’ve been underachieving.  I still think we’re one click away from rolling." 

3) Nobody has claimed the NL.  The Phils are 6 1/2 games behind the NL East-leading Braves.  The Braves are good and young, but fallible.  The fact that they started the season invincibly exposes just how underwhelming they've been since.  In fact, a closer look shows that the First Place Braves have been playing .500 ball since 4/16.  Furthermore, the Phils have outplayed the Braves since 6/5 and have played eerily parallel to them dating back to 4/16:   

Date                     Braves Record Then         Braves Record Since          Phillies Record Since
4/16                      12-1                                 42-40                                 42-40
5/25                      30-18                               24-23                                 24-23
6/5                        37-22                               17-19                                 18-18

So, the Phils have a very legitimate shot at winning their division, should they continue to build momentum in the Second Half. Meanwhile, they are closer in the standings to achieving a Wild Card spot.  The other teams presently competing for the 2 Wild Card playoff spots are: Pittsburgh, Cincinnati, Washington and L.A.:

National League Wild Card Standings
Team	W	L	PCT	GB
Pittsburgh	56	37	.602	-
Cincinnati	53	42	.558	-
Washington	48	47	.505	5
Philadelphia	48	48	.500	5½
L.A. Dodgers	47	47	.500	5½

The Dodgers are an impressive 17-5 since 6/21 and may catch Arizona, a middle of the road team, for First Place.

Dare we dream?  Could Halladay & his 200 wins return in '13?

The Pirates were winners of 9-straight before they dropped 2-of-3 to the Phils July 2nd-4th.  They are 5-7 in July thus-far and 22-17 since May 30th. 

However, the Reds were 43-28 on June 17th and are 10-14 since and the Nationals are 28-32 since May 10th.

So, while the Dodgers may be formidable opponents hitting their stride and Pittsburgh has continued to play winning baseball for most of the year, the other 2 teams are on a downward trend and there are 3 playoff spots still within striking distance should the Phils do what they do best: streak in the Second Half.   The Phillies are 357-170 after the All-Star break since 2005. They've played at least 13 games above .500 in those eight seasons.

Trivia answer from question earlier in this post

The 5 Cy Young winners in both the NL and AL are:

Roy Halladay, Roger Clemens* (steroid aided), Randy Johnson, Pedro Martinez and Gaylord Perry.  

Next up for the Phils:

Starting Friday, the Phils embark on a 9-game road trip to face the Mets, Cardinals and Tigers.  First up, weekend series with the 41-50 Mets, who are 17-27 at home, while 24-23 on the road.  This is a great chance for the Phils to start the Second Half off right.  However, the Mets can pitch.  Their ERA is 13th, while their hitting is 28th in MLB.  There isn't a bad starter for either team in this series.

Fri, Jul 19	Phils @ NY Mets	7:10 PM		Kendrick (8-6, 3.68)	Hefner (4-6, 3.33)  NOTE: Phils need Kendrick, ERA over 4.00 since April, to regain early season form & find consistency in Second Half.
Sat, Jul 20	Phils@ NY Mets	1:10 PM		Hamels (4-11, 4.05)	Wheeler (3-1, 3.54)  NOTE: Expect Hamels to continue stellar July.  Hamels: 1-0, 1.50 ERA at Citi Field so far this year.
Sun, Jul 21	Phils @ NY Mets	1:10 PM		Lee (10-3, 2.86)	Harvey (7-2, 2.35) NOTE: Marquee pitching match-up.  Don't miss it!  Two All-Stars strut their stuff in probably the best pitching match-up of the year.