More Than Ever, It's Utley-Howard To The Rescue

The Phillies will begin their season in Atlanta next week on April Fools Day.  Perhaps it's fitting, since they will feature a "Who's that?" outfield, where they recently boasted 3 All-Stars (Ibanez-Victorino-Werth).  This winter, the Phils sidestepped mega-star slugger Josh Hamilton in favor of an underwhelming outfield of Hodge-podge castoffs and unproven minor leaguers: Delmon Young, Laynce Nix, John Mayberry Jr., Ben Revere and Darin Ruf (who was demoted to the minors this week for his abysmal fielding).

The Phils biggest additions of position starters this offseason were CF Revere and 3B Michael Young.  Revere notoriously has hit 0 MLB HR in his 1st 2 pro years and 36 year-old Young, who is in his career twilight, has hit 19 HR in his last 1242 AB; 11 in '11 and 8 in '12.

More than ever, the Phillies are going to rely on Chase Utley and Ryan Howard to power them to victories.  With a projected opening day outfield of Brown, Nix and Revere, who hit a COMBINED 8 HR in '12 and a starting rotation that is now more question marks than Aces, the Phils will need to see higher averages and plenty of pop from their veteran former all-star 2B and 1B.

This '12 comic expressed fan desperation in Utley, Halladay and Howard's absence.

Last year, the Phillies kept pining for the return of Utley and Howard, who were sidelined with injuries until the team was mired in a losing funk, buried deep in the standings.  Return they did, and in an unlikely fashion that seemed to vindicate the front office, the team rose with their presence and their power, eventually reaching striking distance of the playoffs before leveling off to a vanilla 81-81 finish.

Was it a swan song or promise of more good to come?  Monday in Atlanta begins the long climb that will tell the tale.

July 7th, 2012: Utley and Howard breed hope.

Plagued by injuries the last few years, each man has had their most robust preseason in years, appearing healthy and strong.  Combined with a resurgent Domonic Brown (.373, 7 HR, 16 RBI in 27 preseason games), who appears poised to finally fulfill his heavily tauted potential, the Phils #3-5 hitters could, just maybe, be a dynamic trio reminiscent of the glory years when Utley and Howard were followed by the lean and powerful Jayson Werth.  The new trio have notched 18 HR this Spring: Howard (7), Brown (7), Utley (4). 

Utley and Howard hit back-to-back HR on consecutive days, Friday and Saturday of last week (albeit in preseason), something they used to do often, memorably to nail the Rays coffin in the 2008 World Series.  It finished a week where Utley hit 3 HR in 2 games and hit .533 (8-for-15).

"I feel good about it," their manager Charlie Manuel said. "I like where they're at."

Utley hit 31 HR in 2009, the year of the team's most recent World Series appearance.  In his 3 injury shortened seasons since, he hit just 16, 11 and 11.  Ryan Howard's injury truncated 2012 saw him post his usual pace with 14 HR and 56 RBI in 260 AB, which projects to over 30 HR and well over 100 RBI, which he notched each year from '06-'11.  However, a career .271 hitter, Howard batted just .219 in '12.  He will have to do better if the Phils have a chance in '13.

Worley went from #4 with Phils to #1 with Twins.

The decision to trade Vance Worley ('11 #3 in Rookie-Of-The-Year voting and the Twins' opening day starter next week) and Trevor May (the Phils' #1 prospect a year ago) for Revere was no small statement.  Revere is under contract and dirt cheap.  Likewise, Amaro and company signaled a very clear message in undervaluing and bundle year evading Hamilton this winter.  They were saying that, with the Cole Hamels 6-year, $144 million extension inked in July the lone exception, this team will not be bailed out by big money, not any more.

Big dollar players Halladay-Lee-Utley-Howard and company will have to perform at the level they are being paid, at least between next week and the All-star break. It’s 4 months of sink or swim.  If his team is not contending by the All-Star break, it's time to swap out the remaining big names for talented under salary youth and promising prospects to replenish a depleted farm system, just as they did with the Victorino move in July.

If the Phils are playing well and decidedly in contention come July, their may be some crafty maneuvering, ala their Hunter Pence acquisition in July 2011.  A piece or 2 will be added, making good on the promise, now in waiting, which crystallized when the Phils moved fan favorites Victorino and Pence in 1 week this past July.  'Anything less than a huge free agent signing or two would be unacceptable,' the thinking was then, then the Phils spent the winter doing the unthinkable.  Or so it seemed.

The truth is, they got Revere  ($492,500) and Young  ($750,000) to replace Victorino ($9.5 Mill.) and Pence ($10.4 Mill.) predominately because of money and risk.

Amaro is shrewd.  The Phillies are a well run organization, ask anyone in baseball who plays or works front office.  Ask Halladay and Lee who chose to come here or Victorino and Pence who were sorry to leave and singing the club's and fans' praises on the way out the door.

Hamels' is the largest contract in Philadelphia sports history.

Utley, Halladay and Ruiz are entering the final years of their respective contracts.

"Yeah, there are several possible free agents," general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said in February.  "So in some ways, this could be a very pivotal year for us."

Amaro and co. realize this precipice.  If the team soars between April and July, it's time to fine tune and shape for playoff takeoff.  If they stumble or, worse, crumble, then Josh Hamilton wouldn't have saved them, only anchored them further for a deeper free-fall.  That is what the front office is figuring.  If they are out of contention come July, Hamels figures to be the only untouchable, the building block en route to a reboot.