2012 Phils Hope to Resemble 1979

Sunday, hard-luck Lee fell to 6-8 on the year.

The Phillies season unofficially ended Sunday the way it began last Spring, with limp offense squandering a dazzling display of top-notch, dominant pitching by Cliff Lee (3-1, 0.99 ERA in September, 76 S.O. to 4 BB since July).

Lee S.O. 11 and walked none, while allowing only 1 earned run in 8 innings.  However, the same Phillies who posted 16 runs on 21 hits September 20th vs. the hapless Mets were impotent against Tim Hudson and the playoff bound Braves, posting just 2 hits and 0 runs against him and his unflappable bullpen.

Times like these separate the October teams from the wannabes, and the 2012 Phillies-- despite an exhilarating late-season surge-- now officially belong to the latter.

They closed that gap to within 3 GB over the weekend, but have stumbled, losing 2-in-a-row to Atlanta to fall 5 GB with 9 to play and 4 teams ahead of them for the final playoff spot in a September with zero margin of error, thanks to the corner that they painted themselves into.

On July 13th, when the Phils were 37-51, they were a team without hope, offering little signs of life.

They were 14 games under .500 and 11 GB of the 2nd and final Wild Card spot.

Then, the Phillies went an unlikely 40-25 to rebound as faux postseason contenders.

Now, at 77-76, having presently won 20-of-29, the Phils are precisely what their record shows: a winning ballclub, something they have gotten used to since 2002.

2012 may yet be the Phillies 10th consecutive year of winning baseball.  The remaining 9 games will decide little more than that.

Cloyd S.O. 26 and walked just 5 in his 1st 28 MLB innings. 

However, there have been many signs of hope over the 2nd-half of the season.  Enthusiasm has been renewed in the clubhouse and among the once-beleaguered fanbase, who finally had something to root for this season. 

The injection of some promising young pitchers, like Tyler Cloyd and Jeremy Horst have been a huge part of that.

So has the reemergence of prodigal son Chase Utley and the powering-up of slugger Ryan Howard.

25 year-old Cloyd impressed with 9 S.O., 0 BB and 1 run in 7 innings vs. NL frontrunners Cincinnati on September 3rd and 26 year-old Horst S.O. 32 in 26 innings, allowing just 1 HR with a 1.04 ERA in relief, signaling that some of the team's weakest links, i.e. bullpen, might be strengthened from within the organization.

Utley's comeback has been arresting.  After hitting a HR in his 1st game of the season on June 27th, Utley batted .293 with a .417 OBP in September.  His .451 SLG % is 2nd on the team (to Ruiz's .542).

Now that Utley is learning 3rd base, he promises to be an integral part of the 2013 Phils.


 Howard hit a 9th inning grand slam on 9/20.

Howard, who returned from Achilles heel injury perhaps prematurely, hit HRs in 4 consecutive games from Sept. 19-22 and has posted 14 HR and 55 RBI in just 67 games, which projects out to a 30 HR, 100 RBI season, which the Phils will need from the high-paid slugger in 2013.

Meanwhile, his high-paid compatriot Jonathan Papelbon put together a stellar August and September, lowering his ERA from 3.34 to 2.30,  retroactively justifying his July all-star selection.

Perhaps the most uplifting 2nd-half contribution came from leadoff hitter Jimmy Rollins, the longest standing Phillies player.  After being benched by his manager for lackluster effort, Rollins came alive with a .298, 7 HR September to give him 22 HR and 30 SB this season. 

It was Rollins swagger and preseason prediction that ignited the '07 Phils to their 1st division win in 14 years.

From 2007-2011 the Phillies were NL East Champions.  In 2011, they posted a franchise-best 102 wins. 

So, naturally, hovering around .500, but with a losing record for nearly the entire season, the 2012 Phils have been a disappointment.

However, they are ending on a bright note with promise of competitive baseball yet to come, especially with aggressive management Amaro and co. waiting in the wings to reshuffle and make the kind of acquisitions that have enabled the recent winning ways.

The 1976-78 Phils, led by Schmidt, Carlton and Greg "the Bull" Luzinski, won their division every year.  They posted then franchise best 101 win seasons in '76 & '77. 

Then, in 1979, the bottom dropped out.  A refueled division was won by Pittsburgh, whose 98 wins were tops in the NL and who went on to win the World Series, something the '76-'78 Phils, who lost in the NLCS each year, dropping a sum of 9 of 11 games, had painfully failed to do.

In 1979, it got worse.  They finished 4th instead of 1st and appeared to have ended an era without having even a single World Series appearance to show for it.


The 2013 Phils will attempt to rebound as the 1980 Phils did.

Of course, the following year the 1980 Phillies captured the heart of Philly fans forever with the franchise's 1st World Series win.  Schmidt (48 HR, .624 SLG % that year) finally rose on the biggest stage (8-for-21 .381 World Series, 2 HR and 7 RBI) and there was Carlton being Carlton: 24-9, 2.34 ERA, 286 S.O. and a 3-0 postseason.

So, while the '12 Phils are the 1st to miss the playoffs since '06, there is a lot of promise and renewed enthusiasm inside and around the organization after a terrific 2nd half that did not a season make.

What Amaro and co. do now will be heavily watched and could have tremendous impact.  The Nationals have proven they are for real, even if a Strasburg-less postseason fizzles abruptly.  Meanwhile, there's always the Braves, with 26 year-old Kris Medlen (9-1, 1.51 ERA) the latest in a remarkable line of Braves' starters to lead the team to top the NL.

Heading into the 2012 season, GM Amaro Jr. spent big on a closer, but neglected the bridge between his star-studded starters, who were often injured and underwhelming this season.  That busted bridge accounted for enough losses in the 1st half alone that it could have single-handedly closed the gap between the Phils' 3rd place finish and a playoff birth.

He also relied too heavily on the idea that injured stars Utley and Howard would rebound promptly from their significant injuries to account for a necessary chunk of offense, which instead went missing for the vast majority of the season.


Swisher has hit .160 in 100 postseason at-bats.

A top-notch outfielder and more bullpen help from outside the organization have to be Amaro's primary concerns. 

Shrewdly freeing up salary by parting ways with overpriced outfielders Pence and Victorino was a first step toward filling the gap vacated in 2010 by Jayson Werth.  The Phils will need another power-hitting outfielder if they are to compete in 2013.  Clearly, John Mayberry Jr., despite his promising 2nd half in '11 is not that man with major league consistency.  Despite flashes of his talent in 2012, Dominic Brown hasn't been either.

So, they will need to sift through the slim free agent market or make a trade to bolster their outfield.

The Yankees' Nick Swisher is available, has hit at least 20 HR in his last 8 seasons and is known as a chatty, uplifting clubhouse presence.

The Angels' Torii Hunter and Rangers' Josh Hamilton are available, but devoted to their respective teams.  [Click here for a complete list of potential free agents this offseason.]

The Phillies have risen, a Pheonix From the Flames during the 2nd-half of '12.  Like '06, they began with a fizzle and ended with a pop.  Now the future is theirs for the writing.  It will be an offseason of recharging (Amaro), getting healthy (Howard, Halladay, Worley) and eager anticipation.