Phillies Expected To Begin Trades

Amaro Jr. and Manuel, happier days.

What a difference a day makes. Or, in this case, 3.  When they woke up on Friday, July 27th, 3 days ago, the Phillies had just won 4-straight and 8-out-of-11.  They had momentum and appeared to be beginning a 2nd-half run at competing for a 6th-straight postseason birth.

They proceeded to fall flat on their faces by losing all 3 games in Atlanta during a Lost Weekend of agony and defeat, appearing more like the franchise which has lost a record 10,000+ professional games than its very recent incarnation of perennially winning baseball.

From 2007-2011 the Phillies spoiled its fans, many of whom jumped on during that span, with 5-straight division titles, 2 World Series appearances, a World Championship to equal the 1 the organization acquired in its preceding 127 years and the best season a Phillies teams had ever had (102 wins in 2011).

July 27th-29th, Ryan Howard assumed his recent playoff composure in the crucial series in Atlanta that nailed the coffin shut on the Phillies' season.  Howard struck out 8 times in 11 at-bats during the 3-game series.

Fans and journalists alike are calling for heads-- as in 'cut 'em off.'  However, I have yet to hear any logical argument about how that will help the team.

The key players on the team are so old, so injured and so expensive that any trade wherein they depart Philly would likely leave the Phils with a price tag so great (because they would be expected to share salary for departed player) that it would not be worth their while.

In addition, who wants a guy with bad knees or one with an Achilles heel injury?  What would you realistically get from them that would be better than what they might give you?

Victorino and family have bonded with Philly.

Shane Victorino, Joe Blanton, Juan Pierre and possibly Hunter Pence are thought to be on their way out.

However, what would they bring in return?  And who, exactly, would they replace Victorino with?  Likely, they'd get a bullpen arm and start in CF... Domonic Brown?  Really?

Victorino, Gold Glove 2008, '09 & '10, would leave a major hole in CF and in the hearts of many fans.

"He's been part of everything we've accomplished around here," manager Charlie Manuel said Sunday after the Atlanta Braves virtually ended the Phillies season.

“Last year, we had the best record in baseball, and we didn’t win [it all],” Shane Victorino said after last year. “It’s nice to win 100 games, but ultimately, when the postseason starts, that all goes out the door.”

Victorino, a major fan favorite, has usually been a fighter, a spark-plug, a hustler.  He currently ranks 4th in baseball in stolen bases and the Flyin' Hawaiian is being prized by the team that undervalued and discarded him, the Dodgers, who are actively seeking to reacquire him.

Trading Pence makes even less sense.  Pence, despite his loud critics, has actually produced this year-- largely with absolutely no buffer in the lineup, something he learned to do as a lone star in Houston's losing lineup.  Yes, moving him moves a large sum of money, and if you're certain you can replace him with someone better, then there's logic in it.  However, right now the Phils are desperate for -- among other things-- a reliable LF.  Subtracting your 2-time all-star CF and your former all-star RF at the same time just doesn't add up.

7 IP, 2 ER, 1 BB & 7 S.O. in possibly his last game for Phils.

Blanton was a mid-season addition in '08 and shined with the Phils during their Championship run that year.  When asked about his experience in Philly thus far, he came up with a single word: "Phenomenal."  That's how he put it after coming up big in a then pivotal, now meaningless game Saturday, which only served to increase his trade value.

"I came over, we won a World Series, went back again, and we've been in the playoffs every year I've been here. It's one of the best places to play with the fans and everything."

The Phillies starting pitchers posted a 2.86 ERA (best in baseball) in '11 and had quality starts 67% of the time. This year, the Phillies' starters have a 4.07 ERA (15th out of 30 teams) and have had quality starts 58% of the time.

The bullpen has been a tattered, taped together eyesore since Opening Day this year, but you can't discount the failure of the starting rotation on a team composed entirely around them-- especially at their ever-increasing salaries.

"It's nothing that we aren't all responsible for," 2-time CY Young-winner Roy 'Doc' Halladay said this week. "There are times you have to take your lumps. It's not easy to swallow, but we've kind of all put ourselves in this situation, and sometimes you have to kind of take it like a man."

8-time All-Star Roy Halladay pondering.

"We have no choice but to keep playing," Halladay said. "Regardless of what we did coming into this and what we've got in front of us, I think we owe it to our fans, we owe it to ourselves, we owe it to a lot of people . . . to go out and turn things around and play better baseball. It's going to be hard, and obviously we're in a substantial hole, but we need to prove some things to ourselves and get things going in the right direction."

The only realistic answer is FREE AGENCY.

That said, if you figure you don't plan to re-sign Victorino, a free agent after this year, at the price he has earned, then trading him during the obligatory remainder of this lost season makes sense, since the Phils would see a return that they would otherwise write-off after the season.

Then again, that was their option re. Hamels, as well.  Instead, they threw him an almost unprecedented bundle of cash only to watch him go right out and throw the season away, literally, against Atlanta in his very next start.   

This has been a sentimental front office, which has built around veterans, players who are aging and showing it (Halladay, Polanco...).  

Changing this team for the better would mean more than reshaping, it would require rethinking priorities and re-envisioning the entire squad.

Hamels biggest start of year resulted in 5 R, 6 BB in 5 IP.

You must assume your multi-million dollar arms, the core starters Halladay, Lee and Hamels will pick up in 2013 where they left off in 2011.

After that, it's anyone's guess.  Will Utley or Howard ever spend another full-season productive?

Can they continue to survive without a true lead-off hitter (an on-base guy)?  Rollins loves to hit there, but has never really fit that mold.  Now, with his age, he is less the lead-off hitter of a winning team than ever.

Who is this team going forward?

In 2007, they were a free-swinging offensive powerhouse, a punishing mob squad of mashers and one swing game-changers.

By 2011, they were an anemic hitting team whose starting pitching was capable of a shutout every single day.

The 2012 lineup is limp, the starting pitching out of synch, while their bullpen summons fear for the team, not its opponents.

Their needs going forward are vast.  Most obviously: Bullpen, Third Base, and Left Field.

Free agency can solve those missing links.  Maximizing your value by trading a Pierre to a hungry contender now makes sense.  However, there is no need to clean house at midseason before evaluating and re-envisioning.  Instead, evaluate what you have and size-up who, on other clubs, might be available at the end of the season.  Even this is secondary.  

Primary, is deciding what kind of team you are to know how you can get better through addition, before subtracting.

In today's impatient world, where fans turn against players and teams overnight, while managers are expendable as firewood, trigger-happy is the norm.  Let's see if a ring + 5 banners buys Amaro and co. more time than their average peers.

The trade deadline is Tuesday.  Time will tell.