This Wound Runs Deep

The Phils are no stranger to losing. Yet, this one, a drop in the bucket among the more than 10,000-deep well in the Phillies vast repertoire of dismal defeat, ranks pretty high. That's because it's a fresh wound among fans, who are left to commiserate in misery about what could have and should have been after a demoralizing 1-0 defeat ended the Phils' season. It's also because of the expectations this team built over 162 games that yielded the promising fruit of the most winning season (102-60) in franchise history.

"Very disappointing. This is the most disappointed I've been with the Phils since I suffered through the '64 collapse as a 9 year-old. But I always was and always will be a Phillies fan," said one reader, 2 days ago.

The Phillies are now a team people (outside of Philadelphia) love to hate. Unlike the Yankees, who have years of accumulated international fan base, the Phils are looked at as an upstart powerhouse 'moneyball' team, whose 'new money' visibility is resented and loathed by the general public.

This is unfair, as the Phillies grew organically, capitalizing on a successful nucleus that had been homegrown from the farm up.

In '06, the front office started dumping their high priced players, like OF Bobby Abreu, in acknowledgement that they couldn't compete and must re-build. Instead, that team went on to post the best record in the NL during the season's 2nd half. Ryan Howard was named NL MVP and the future was suddenly, startlingly bright.

The next year, '07, they staged a remarkable late-season comeback against a collapsing Mets team to win the division, their 1st NL East title since '93. They got swept out by the Rockies in the NLDS. My wife told me, "Don't worry, they'll come back next year and be even better." I said, "You don't understand, this is the Phillies. They're good once every 15 or 50 years. Besides, you don't comeback so easily in baseball, unless you're the Yankees." Well, of course, she was right, as they won the World Series the very next year.

That '08 championship team was steered by Baseball genius GM Pat Gillick, who rode predecessor Ed Wade's nucleus to unpredictable glory by adding key pieces that fell together in just the right way.

After that, Amaro took over. He felt an enormous pressure to win, because of the shoes he was filling (Gillick's), the town he was in (Philly, where winning was now an expectation) and the nucleus of talent that was here now, but not forever (a fact he always cites when interviewed).

"I'm an aggressive personality. I like to make things happen. I also have a pretty good understanding what this fan base is about. Success kind of breeds success. Expectations continue to rise and don't stop rising. " Amaro Jr., 10.3.11

Amaro's desire to please and succeed and his aggressive tactics are admirable and well-documented. His plundering of the recently plentiful farm system is not. His stripping of the minor league teams, from A to AAA, have cast a far-reaching cloud over a future whose past is 129-years of mainly agony.

Furthermore, Amaro's depletion of much of the team's future talent has been ignored by fans who, in tune with today's sports climate, want to win now at all cost. Many of the key youth crop was spent in 2 separate deals to acquire the same player, Cliff Lee. Had they merely kept him the 1st time (which was his own desire all along), they could have saved themselves over a dozen solid prospects.

When they traded Lee and a plethora of top prospects, I wrote, in my post on 12.15.09,

"What they gave up was their future-- and we're not talking distant future."

They got Lee back and all was forgotten, but that's in large part because the cost of the talent they surrendered getting him twice remains yet unknown.

Ruben Amaro Jr. won't be around when the Phillies are no longer relevant. He'll have moved on after his day in the sun. It is fans who will have to brace for the potential steep downside to the last few years of winning.

It is fans who must watch former-Phils' minor-leaguers ascend the ranks and blossom in coming years as young teams with talent become the next '07 Phillies.

A quick glimpse at the Phils' trend indicates this team peaked in '08 and has since sloped downward:

Postseason Round Reached by Year & Result

'07 - NLDS - Lost
'08 - World Series - Won
'09 - World Series - Lost
'10 - NLCS - Lost
'11 - NLDS - Lost

It is pertinent to observe that it was the Phillies own minor league products that were stars this postseason:

Utley, Rollins, Madson, and Hamels, as well as superlative Amaro acquisition Halladay, all shined on baseball's brightest stage in '11.

Meanwhile, Lee and Howard, Amaro's high priced future for years to come are goats in this year's early exit. They are presently postseason busts the team is married to.

Lee is likely to return, a Phoenix from the flames, but he must shake this playoff monkey, which began in '10 vs. S.F. and which will last until at least next October. He is a fierce competitor and likely will regain the postseason dominance he began as a Phillie in '09.

Howard's tale is far more troubling. On 9.22.11, I wrote, "Howard, for example, is solved by following the Yankees' blueprint circa '09, which the Giants, in '10, did so effectively: throw him off-speed stuff out of the Zone and watch him flail."

St. Louis did just that to its hometown foe, bringing Howard to his literal knees: 0-for-his-last-8 with 5 strike outs.

It has become painfully obvious that Amaro overpaid for Howard, whose Achilles injury on the final play of the postseason may be the end of his effectiveness in MLB. The Phillies are saying that Howard could miss up to 9 months after surgery, and the 5-year, $125 million contract extension Amaro handed him looks like handcuffs for team management, who will be unable to trade Howard or use that money to invest in players who could actually contribute in the postseason or hit over .253 in coming years.

This is only one of the moves Amaro has made which has not worked out, moves often overlooked amidst a winning climate. That will change if the team's downward trend continues.

For example, Oswalt and Ibanez have been ineffective more than effective Phillies, while Polanco has been injured throughout his return tour here. I warned about Polanco in my 12.6.09 post, when the Phils re-signed him: "Polanco is slowing at 34, coming off the least productive complete season of his career (.285 Ave.)."

I pondered why they didn't sign 3B Adrian Beltre, who was also available for comparable money. Beltre went on to hit .321 with 28 HR and 102 RBI that year. Five days ago, Beltre launched his Texas team into the ALCS with 3 HR in a single game, matching the total the entire Phillies team hit this postseason and tying the all-time MLB record. Meanwhile, Polanco, Amaro's pick, now 36 years-old, followed the worst season of his career with a 2-for-19 (.105 Ave. and 0 BB) postseason and awaits surgery this off-season for the 2nd-straight year.

Equally troubling has been Charlie Manuel's reliance on the past and inability to see the present. He is 'Charlie faithful' when it comes to his players, and that is why they love him.

However, in '09, Lidge and Hamels combined for 20 innings pitched, 19 Earned Runs allowed and a 1-3 record against the Yankees to lose the World Series. Their season and postseason leading up to that moment was a consistent warning sign that read, "These guys won't help you, now." Manuel ignored that, and we lost.

Likewise, there were 2 tell-tale signs that he barreled past en route to this year's early exit:

1) Raul Ibanez over John Mayberry Jr.
2) Roy Oswalt over Vance Worley

1) Mayberry was that 'X' factor for the Phils, hitting .300 in July, .296 in August w/ 6 HR, .305 in September with numbers that projected to 30 HR & 100 RBI, but Manuel decided that he'd rather have former star Ibanez than the hot new spark-plug opposing pitchers had yet to decipher.

2) Oswalt had gone 9-10 for the Phils in '11, while plagued by back problems. Meanwhile, the team enjoyed a 14-game win streak in games Worley started, setting a new rookie record. Ignoring that winning trend, Chuck chose the past over the present.

The reliance on the past doesn't bode well for Amaro and Manuel, who will need to start trusting in youth to invest in the future and build these Phillies going forward.

Before the playoffs, I predicted, but hoped against a World Series of Texas vs. Milwaukee. Many friends asked me, when Tampa Bay jumped out in front of the Rangers with a game one 9-0 drubbing, if I wanted to revise my AL pick. I stood by the Rangers, and they won.

Texas may be a better team, right now, without the baggage of Lee's mental struggle to hold them back.

Every national newspaper talked about the amazing job pitcher Chris Carpenter did in shutting out the Phillies phenomenal lineup in game 5 to advance his Cardinals to the '11 NLCS. Yes, he was outstanding, but this perception that the Phillies lineup is star-studded is also living in the past, and the nation should get over it, as must the Phils. The Phillies offense has declined each year since '07, and they must re-think, learn to play small-ball and turn to Mayberry Jr. and Pence for full-season contributions to stage a '12 comeback.

Phillies Postseason team HRs by year

2008: 19 HRs
2009: 25 HRs
2010: 4 HRs
2011: 3 HRs

Phillies Postseason team batting average by year

2008: .260
2009: .247
2010: .210
2011: .226

There was so much assertion entering 2011 that this was the best Phillies team ever assembled. Obviously, that is now a hard claim to swallow.

At the end of the '10 season, Mike Schmidt said the Phils were "a unique group" that has already "surpassed our accomplishments." If they win the NLCS and return to the World Series, he felt the team would "officially be the best team in Phillies history, bar none."

Well, the '10 team didn't win the NLCS and the '11 team didn't even win the NLDS. So, what does that say about history's take on the best Phillies team ever?

'11, meanwhile, may have been the most closely contested 1st round of playoffs in baseball's modern era, wherein 3 of the 4 series was decided in the 5th of 5 games by 1 run.

In the AL, the Tigers beat the Yankees 3-2 in game 5. In the NL, Milwaukee nipped Arizona 3-2 in the 10th inning of a game 5 classic, while the Cards edged the Phils 1-0 in their game 5.

It was well-matched, as the 162 game season melted away into evenly played sets all around.

If Rollins is not brought back in a Phils' uniform for '12 (his contract is up), he went out a hero. After a mediocre year at the plate, Rollins potential swansong was an electrifying 5 playoff games, wherein he batted .450 with 4 doubles.

It is impossible, after 12 faithful major league seasons played only with the Phils, to think of our infield without Rollins' trusty glove (career .984 fielding %) at SS.

Meanwhile, Utley was something of a superhero. He couldn't walk in April, due to knee injury and completed his worst-ever regular season, which featured a concussion from a ball thrown off his head in September. Yet, somehow, he resurrected previous seasons' playoff magic by hitting .438 and leading the team with a .571 OBP this postseason.

"I think all of us were concerned, but with Chase I think you kind of stay cautiously optimistic that he's going to be fine because it's Chase," the Phillies general manager said of his favorite player in August. "He's kind of wired differently than others."

Rollins and Utley will be remembered as heroes of this team, whether they return to the postseason with it or not.

Roy Halladay managed to stay positive after his 8-inning 126-pitch, 1 run effort was completely wasted by his punchless team, who managed not to score at all with their season depending on it:

“I don’t care where you go, there’s no team that you’re guaranteed to win anything,” Halladay said. “We have an unbelievable team here. Winning the World Series is always going to be the goal. When I came over here, I didn’t think it was going to be easy. I knew it would be hard. I knew it’s not something you do every year.

"I really enjoy the process of going after it and playing these games and getting to this point in the season," he added. "Hopefully we get to a point where things go our way. We’ll get back here and do it again."