Phils Falling Faster Than Stocks

The Phillies have it all under control. This is nothing. It's the post-'Senior Week' blues, they have nothing to play for, so they're not playing well. Right?

In the immortal words of famous Philadelphian Bill Cosby, "Riiiight."

The Phillies, everyone's choice to represent the NL in the '11 World Series this past preseason, have now lost 8-straight for the first time since 2000, predominately at home and mostly to the lowly Nationals and Mets.

If it's any consolation, the Boston Red Sox, the popular preseason pick to play the Phils in the '11 World Series, may miss the playoffs altogether amidst a catastrophic 5-17 tailspin.

Meanwhile, Jayson Werth's Nationals (no thanks to Werth) are 12-4 in their last 16.

Baseball has a funny way of pranking players, of twisting fate around your neck. Ask Charlie Manuel, who is presently fit to be tied:

"We've got to find a way to score some runs," Manuel said, after the Mets swept the Phils in a doubleheader Saturday. "Do we have time? We'll see. It'll be a test of how good we are. This is the first time this year that we've actually gone bad. It's not a real good time to go bad. At the same time, this will be a good measuring stick for us. We created this ourselves, so we'll see."

There were some signs of life for the Phils offense during the doubleheader:

Jimmy Rollins, who batted .083 (2 for 24) in the previous 7 games, had 3 singles. Shane Victorino, who began the day also batting .083 (2 for 24) in his prior 6 games, had a hit in each game. Chase Utley, who’d been batting .194 (6 for 31) with neither a HR nor an RBI since suffering a concussion Sept. 7th, hit a double off the CF wall in game 2.

Manuel has always been a player's manager. The organization went the opposite way from Larry Bowa, who players despised, when they hired him in 2004. A week ago, it looked as if 2 milestones would converge this season to make Phillies history.

In the same game, the Phils would win their 102nd game for the 1st time in the team's 129 year history and Charlie Manuel would win his 646th game as the team's manager, tying him with Gene Mauch for the all-time most. Of course, Dallas Green had a higher win % and the same number of World Series titles (1 in '80) as Manuel (1 in '08) and Mauch presided over more losses than wins.

Now, it appears, both records will have to wait. The Phils would have to win all of their remaining 4 games to eclipse the team record 101 wins posted by both the '76 and '77 Mike Schmidt-led Phils.

Instead, this year's team is suddenly reaching back to another element of Phillies history, the propensity for losing that enabled the Phillies to reach 10,000 losses before any other team in any sport, and which was infamously embodied in the greatest defeat in sports history, the '64 Phils collapse, when they blew a 6 1/2 game lead with 12 left to play by losing 10-straight, then winning the final 2, managing to miss the playoffs by a single game.

Mauch was the manager of that team, Manuel is the manager of this one:

"I've said this over and over, when you start messing with your lineup . . .," he said after the team's 8th consecutive defeat. "All of a sudden, we wanted guys who are hurting to get well, and we start giving them two, three days off, and then you look around and all of a sudden you lose your mojo. You lose your timing. You lose your rhythm. I know what I'm talking about. I've been in the damn game for 50 years. I know exactly what I'm talking about. We're out of sync. We're out of focus. We're searching and nothing's going right."

Sounds like the Phillies, doesn't it? I mean, deep down, those of us who are Phillies lifers, who are 2nd, 3rd and 4th generation Phillies fans, we understand-- and maybe are even guilty of having anticipated this kind of defeat.

In their last 17 games, the Phils have scored more than 3 runs only 2 times.

They are 98-60 with 4 games left, all on the road; 3 in Atlanta against a team playing hard, desperately trying to hold onto a playoff spot (St. Louis trails them by 2 games for the Wild Card).

Hunter Pence (.310) played Saturday for the 1st time since missing 3 games with a strained patellar tendon in his left knee. Pence, 0-for-5 on the day, appeared still injured when he made his 1st error as a Phil on a routine play that led to the 4 unearned runs that cost the Phils the game.

Skipper Manuel has steered the Phils through floundering before. He has seen his share of slumps and ineptitude during the last few years of winning that is unprecedented in the history of the franchise. World Series title, 2nd ever-- in 129 years. 5-straight division titles, 1st time, ever. 98 wins, surpassed in 2 Phillies seasons, ever.

Yet, the 'player's manager' is human and has made his share of human errors.

Take '09. The Phils made a miraculous return trip to the World Series, after winning it the year before, to defend their title.

The Phils had renewed Manuel's contract a couple years prior because he was unanimously backed by rising stars like Utley and Howard, as well as core players like Rollins and Burrell.

It was that same player-manager bond that caused him to put faith in 2 pitchers that had proven throughout every month of the '09 season, as well as each and every step of the postseason that they simply couldn't do it that year. The 2 pitchers were Lidge, the injured and unreliable closer, and Hamels, the fallen star, who had lost his groove.

In '08, Hamels was invincible, especially in the postseason, while Lidge was immaculate from beginning to end.

Manuel looked to the past to determine the present. The result? The Phils got to the '09 World Series despite Hamels and Lidge and lost it because of them. The 2 pitchers combined for 20 innings pitched, 19 Earned Runs allowed and a 1-3 record against the Yankees, who beat the Phils 4-games-to-2 to take the title away from them.

Manuel has done it again with the left field shuffling of 2011. Raul Ibanez, in his Swan Song as a Phil, re-emerged with just enough offense to steal back his position from rising star John Mayberry Jr., who had been on a tear in August, hitting 6 HR.

This was a big mistake for 2 reasons:

1) Mayberry Jr. has the capacity to uniquely spark the team, like Hunter Pence, because he has so much to prove and brings a fresh thirst for World Series glory.

2) Pitchers haven't solved him yet. He's a quagmire, whereas Howard, for example, is solved by following the Yankees' blueprint circa '09, which the Giants, in '10, did so effectively: throw him offspeed stuff out of the Zone and watch him flail.

Mayberry could be that 'X' factor for the Phils, but instead, his spirited run-- .300 in July, .296 August, .341 September, 12 HR in 3 months and a season that projects to 30 HR, 100 RBI -- was cut short when Manuel relegated him to off-the-bench opportunities.

Ibanez has had some big hits and may yet prove me wrong, but relying on him now is a throwback to his consistent productivity, which ended after the 1st half of '09 and an echo of Manuel's managerial style, reliance on former stars, that terminated the '09 title run abruptly.

Cole Hamels, having the best regular season of his career, gave it all he had in N.Y. during Saturday's 2-1 loss. Hamels allowed 4 hits and only 1 run, while striking out 7 in 7 innings, but failed to get the win when the Phils scored just 1 run. His record is now 14-9, short of even a personal best, but his WHIP is 0.98, best in the entire NL.

Hamels is now 2-4 since July 22nd, due to a combination of his late-season health problems and poor run support. He was visibly unnerved after Saturday's loss:

"I know, the pitchers, we're ready to go," said Hamels. "We're going to go out there and try to throw nine-inning shutouts. I know it's not possible, but that's our plan, so everybody just needs to get on board."

They better get on board fast, before the board sinks.

Sunday, 2:10pm ECT Phillies
(98-60, 46-31 away)
@Mets
(76-82, 33-44 home)

PHI: Halladay (18-6, 2.41 ERA)

NYM: Pelfrey (7-12, 4.58 ERA)