Thursday, August 4, 2011

Phils-Giants Preview

The NL East belongs to the Phillies. It may be the 1st week in August, but a 5th consecutive division title is already theirs. That reality must fall heavy on the Braves' ears. They have the 2nd-best NL record and would be leading every other division in baseball, except 1, if they weren't paired in the East with the Phils. Instead, they're 8 games out and dropping fast.

Still, hard to feel sorry for the Braves, since they had their turn with a streak of division titles from 1991 to 2005 (3 in the West and 11 in the East), interrupted only by '94's strike-shortened season.

The Phils have won 6-straight games, scoring 6.7 runs per game in that span. Acquired All-Star Hunter Pence has been on the team for the last 5 games, which means they're undefeated with him.

His presence has made a huge impact on the lineup. While he is merely 6-for-21 with a .286 average out of the 5-slot (a dip from his .307 season average), 4-slot clean-up man Ryan Howard is 9 for 22 (.409) with 4 HR and 9 RBIs in those 5 games (an astronomically rise in his season stats).

The Phils are 3-and-9 in their last 12 games in S.F. The Giants, 33-20 at home, are counting on home-field advantage, because they are struggling, having just lost 5-straight and 8-of-13.

Carlos Beltran is 8-for-30 (.267) with his new team. However, he is heating at 7-for-16 (.438) over his last 4 games. He is 1-for-8 vs. Lee.

This will be a 4-game series, and the Phils-- who recently lost 2-of-3 against the Giants in Philly, will have more than 1 of their aces in the rotation vs. S.F. this time around.

Game 1, Thursday, 10:15 PM ET

PHI: Lee (10-7, 3.14 ERA, 159 S.O., 32 BB)
@
SF: Bumgarner (6-10, 3.80 ERA, 115 S.O., 30 BB)

Lee went 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA vs. the Giants as a Ranger in the World Series last season, but is 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA in the regular season vs. them, lifetime.

Meanwhile, Bumgarner has to be the unluckiest guy in baseball. His solid numbers, coupled with his team's 62-49 record, shouldn't result in his 10 losses in 16 decisions. Maybe, for the Phils sake, his bad luck will continue.

The key to beating the Bum(garner) is scoring early. He has surrendered 18 1st-inning runs this year.

Game 2, Friday, 10:15 PM ET

PHI: Worley (7-1, 2.33 ERA)
@
SF:
Sanchez (4-5, 3.81 ERA)

When Worley pitches, the Phillies generally win. The team is 12-2 when he appears on the mound this season, including 8-straight wins. They even beat Pittsburgh during Worley's last start, despite his surrendering 4 runs in 6 innings.

Game 3, Saturday, 4:10 PM ET

PHI: Hamels (12-6, 2.62 ERA)
@
SF:
Cain (9-7, 3.10 ERA)

Cain feasts on the Phils. 'Big Daddy' shut them out with a 2-hit postseason gem nail-in-the-coffin during the '10 NLCS. What has he done against them lately? An encore, shutting them out on July 27th in Philly.

Hamels, meanwhile, is the opposite. He's winless against the Giants in his last 4 games against them and hasn't beaten them since '09.

Game 4, Sunday, 4:05 PM ET

PHI: Oswalt (4-6, 3.79 ERA)
@
SF: Lincecum (9-9, 2.77 ERA)

Roy Oswalt, remember him? He used to be a great pitcher with the Astros. Now, he is plagued by constant back problems. The Phils acquired him last year as the poor man's Cliff Lee, when they were in the midst of regret for having traded the real thing for no apparent reason, other than the opportunity to spend even more minor league talent and a jillion dollars getting him back.

Oswalt will be making his 1st start since June 23rd, when he surrendered 4 runs in 2 innings in St. Louis.

Meanwhile, Lincecum will be making his 1st start against the Phils since shutting them out on July 28th.

Lincecum will be thrilled to see the Phils, as will San Fransisco fans, who pulled off an upset against them in '10, which propelled them to a World Series win. The Giants are hoping to regain momentum behind Beltran and against these Phils, who they've grown fond of beating. The Phils are looking to highlight their marvelous season (baseball's best record, an incomparable 71-39) by overcoming their nemesis, the defending NL champ Giants, who they will not face again (after these 4 games), this regular season. Then, it's the 'second season', the postseason, where everything just has to go better than it did last year... right?

Perhaps these 4 games against S.F. will provide the true answer.

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