Wednesday, July 20, 2011

J-Rolling and Beltran Hunting

Perhaps you've heard that the Phils are 33-11 this year when Jimmy Rollins scores a run. Well, now they're 1-0 when he hits 2 HRs in a game. Rollins also doubled in collecting his 10th multi-hit game since 6/26, when he went 4-for-4 vs. Oakland, the city of his birth. He is hitting .365 in July, which has launched his average from .251 on July 1 to .277 today.

Rollins, Gold Glove SS ('07-'09), has been as good as ever this year in the field with 5 errors and a .987 fielding %.

However, his recent offensive explosion has come out of nowhere, and it couldn't have come at a better time for an offense that has raised doubts for the team's manager, as well as baseball experts and fans.

Wednesday was only the 2nd time in the switch-hitting Rollins' career that he has homered from both sides of the plate in the same game (8/12/06 vs. Reds was the other).

If Rollins can stay hot, the Phils will have a table-setter extraordinaire, who has already matched his '08 title-year HR production and whose S.O.-walk ratio is as good as it has ever been at 38-38.

11 days remain before the trade deadline, and it appears that the Mets' RF Carlos Beltran will be traded.

You heard of the possibility here first: "Beltran in Phils' outfield? Hmm..." [7/14/11: "People's Choice Champs"].

Both the Phillies and Red Sox are the most likely landing places, with the Mets willing to eat most of the $6 million he's owed this year if they can get top prospects in return. Whose prospects do they prize the most? All this will be decided by July 31. Beltran is 34 and will be a free agent at the end of the season.

He has been injury plagued each of the last 2 seasons, which led to his dreadful numbers in '10: .255 with 7 HR in 64 games. The fact that he has vastly underachieved as a high-paid Met for 6 of the last 7 seasons doesn't bode well. However, he is hitting .291 with 14 HR and 59 RBI this year and .372 with a .500 OBP this month. Is he hot to stay (at least until he gets his next big contract) or on the verge of yet another injury?

More pertinently: should the Phils get him? Impossible to know, until we see who they would part with. However, the Phils have certainly landed on their feet in trades where they surrendered significant prospects in the last few years, so there's reason to believe they know what they're doing. On the other hand, they've shied away from rent-a-player trades, which this would absolutely be.

Still, it's a mesmerizing prospect. All-Star Carlos Beltran in RF and batting 5th for the Phils. That would create vital insurance that Ryan Howard would get pitched to in the postseason. Howard, presently leading the NL with 74 RBI, is expected to see numerous intentional walks and pitch-arounds when RBI opportunities arise during the playoffs. Acquiring Beltran could change that equation overnight.

Meanwhile, Vance Worley, who scouts around the league continue to shrug off as a one-hit-wonder, just continues to do his thing. Wednesday, Worley allowed 1 run on 4 hits over 8 strong. He struck out 7, while walking just 2.

Look at it this way, all you Worley-doubting scouts:

Ryan Vogelsong, who began the season in the minors and hadn't pitched in the big leagues since '06, was selected to the '11 All-Star game (albeit by his manager).

Vogelsong is 7-1 (#1 win % in NL) with a 2.02 ERA (#1 in NL) in 98 innings. Opponents are hitting .229 against him and his WHIP is 1.19.

Meanwhile, Worley, who skipped AAA entirely en route to his MLB debut, has steadily built uncannily identical numbers:

He is 6-1 with a 2.02 ERA. Opponents are batting .212 against him and his WHIP is 1.19.

Because he has only thrown in 63 innings, he can't yet qualify for the league lead in any pitching category. He can, however, compete for Rookie-of-the-Year, and he very much is.

Right now, it's between him and Braves' wunderkind closer Craig Kimbrel.

Worley, like Kimbrel, is 23. Vogelsong is 33. Worley doubters beware.

Notably, the Phils have made some trade blunders the last couple of years, even if winning has a way of hiding blemishes. The biggest, of course, was trading away Cliff Lee, who was a playoff stud for them in '09, before returning to the World Series for the Rangers in '10, after the Phils had traded him. Ruben Amaro, Jr. famously admitted (figuratively) 'My bad' by re-acquiring Lee this past off-season, rectifying his mistake in the fans' and Lee's eyes.

A lesser known Phils' roster move mistake, however, is the fact that they keenly signed Vogelsong as a free agent during the '09-'10 off-season, only to release him on 7/15/10. A year later, he's an all-star with the World Champion Giants.

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