Punchless Phils Losing Lead in East

'So, the Phils have lost 3-straight, so what?' sports fans from another town might think. Perhaps a disconnected Florida fan, who barely notices when its baseball team wins a title. Or a city where winning is the comfort zone. However, as Phillies fans, we're always looking over our shoulder for the cloud we know must be looming and, if we can't see it, we wonder where it's hiding.

Well, this season is unique, in part because this team is unlike any we've ever seen. For starters (and there are 4 worth mentioning), they're expected to win-- and win big.

The old Phillies, the 'old new Phillies' that is, the variety that began a slow climb toward respectability in '06 behind the charge of NL MVP Ryan Howard, was a slugging team opposing pitchers feared as 'Murderer's Row'.

That team dumped Bobby Abreu, among others, in a mid-season salary-slimming that braced for rebuilding years, then went on to surprise everyone with young homegrown players who loved to play hard and believed they could win, ascending mightily, posting baseball's best 2nd-half record, only to miss the playoffs on the season's final day.

Those Phils culminated 2 years later in a raucous celebration on Broad Street in '08 when they hit their stride in October, going 11-3 and, unforgettably, winning it all. Then, in '09, they were back for more, an unprecedented Phillies return trip to the World Series, losing there to the Yankees.

The '09 team hit 25 postseason HRs, a power display worthy of a champion. This '11 Phillies team? Not so much. Ryan Howard projects to 36 HRs at his present pace, Shane Victorino to 25. The power stops there.

This is a pitching team. We knew that coming in. What we didn't know is just how hitless this team would prove to be. The question remains: can they win a 7-game series with their present offense?

3-straight losses for the 1st time this year have many people wondering. Foremost, manager Charlie Manuel:

"We need for our lineup to get [physically] better, but we also need our lineup to hit better. We need some guys to have the kind of years they are capable of having." --5.11.11

Disturbingly, Manuel said virtually the same thing at the end of last season:

"I know Utley's capable of doing better, I know Howard's capable of doing better, and I know Victorino can do better. And I know Jimmy Rollins has to do better for us."

Furthermore, early during the 2010 season, former GM and team advisor Pat Gillick said, "Usually when a team gets into a slump, you see 1 or 2 players who are still hitting. But we've had a number of players who really haven't hit up to what they're capable of."

So, for more than a season, the Phillies philosophy on their offensive decline has been, 'Guys are capable of more and will eventually show it.' However, guys have gotten older and the numbers don't lie:

From '07 to '10, the Phils runs-per-game dipped from 5.51 to 4.77. Their HR production plummeted from 224 in '09 to 166 in '10. At present pace, they project to only 129 in '11. They scored 892 runs in '07 compared with only 772 in '10 and are paced to score only 676 in '11. Their slugging % was .447 in '09, compared with .413 in '10 and .387 thus far in '11.

In their 1st 40 games of '11, the Phils have posted 3 or fewer runs 21 times. Scoring 3 runs or less the majority of the time will not win this team a championship, especially not with Roy Oswalt on the DL and Cliff Lee at 2-4 with a 3.84 ERA.

Will Chase Utley change all that with one mighty swing of the bat? Or are the Phillies pinning too much hope on even his capable shoulders? Can he single-handedly bring back the productivity to this slumbering offense? He wasn't the answer last year, which isn't to say he wouldn't be now. Anything is possible.

Still, some troubling facts remain.

In a playoff series come October, the Phils better not score like they have against Atlanta. Remember, playoff pitching looks like Atlanta's, and the Phils are averaging just 3.11 runs per-game against the Braves this year. Startlingly, if you remove the outlier 10-2 Phils win against them on April 9th, Braves pitchers have held Phils hitters to 18 earned runs in the remaining 8 games played for a 2.25 ERA.

And it isn't only the elite staffs handcuffing the Phils. Monday night, it was the Cardinals' Jake Westbrook holding the Phils to 1 run over 7 innings. Westbrook's previous outing lasted 2 innings, wherein he was tagged for 5 runs. His ERA entering Monday's game was 6.92 with a whopping WHIP of 1.70.

However, 109 pitches later, he handed the Phils their 3rd-straight defeat. The Phils mustered a meager 6 runs in those 3 losses and have posted only 28 runs in their last 10; that's 2.8 runs per game.

That won't win you a playoff series against the Toledo Mudhens.

Defending Cy Young Roy Halladay has lost 2-consecutive complete games thanks to poor run support.

"We're gonna find some hitting. We'll get somebody," Charlie Manuel promised a few days ago. "We'll find people. We'll gawdamn look until we find somebody. Seriously. That's how I look at it. We'll keep experimenting until we get people."

Isn't that the familiar refrain? When will it end in moves or answers on the field?

Do they have answers other than a hopefully healthy enough Utley?

"We want him back as soon as possible," Manuel told reporters a couple days ago. "One person can mean a lot, especially the caliber of player Chase is. We're going to get better when Chase gets back."

One would hope. The Phils revolving door at 2nd Base is now affecting on-field wind conditions.

Meanwhile, the fish are hungry and waiting. I'm talking about those pariahs in a Marlins uniform. They're-- don't look now-- a single game behind and chomping at our feet. And don't count the Braves out. Dropping 4 of 6 to them has given them reason to hope for a return to NL East title grandeur:

“In a 7-game series against them in October, I’ll take my guys over their guys," Chipper Jones said. “I have no doubt in my mind, we’re as good a ball club as the Phillies.”

Cleveland now holds baseball's best record (25-13), followed by the Phils (25-15) and Marlins (24-16).