Durbin Deja Vu

Loyal to a fault, Charlie Manuel is responsible for the Phillies 6-5 walkoff loss to the Giants that now has the Phils in a virtually insurmountable 3-1 hole in the best-of-7 NLCS. He may be one of the Phillies' greatest skippers ever, but he is also human and his Kryptonite is: his faith in certain players overwhelms his logical brain.

In the 2009 postseason, he continued to go with Hamels and Lidge, despite the fact their regular seasons and postseasons were ravaged by respective failure. The result? The Phils lost in 6 in the World Series with Hamels and Lidge going 0-2.

At the crushing crux of Wednesday's game 4 defeat was Charlie Manuel's choice to deploy Chad Durbin to protect a 1-run lead in the 6th. Durbin promptly gift-wrapped victory for his opponent by allowing 2 runs on 2 hits and 2 walks, turning a Phillies' 4-3 lead into a 5-4 deficit.

Manuel's decision led to the premature use of Ryan Madson before his traditional 8th inning appearance and setup the odd and poorly conceived managerial choice of pitching Roy Oswalt in relief in the 9th, when the game was officially lost.

However, the trouble started when Manuel chose Jose Contreras, who had pitched 2 stellar innings in S.F. the night before, to pitch to the final batter in the 5th. It was obvious to me then, knowing Manuel's history, that he would bring Chad Durbin on the mound to, in his mind, protect the lead and, in actuality, lose the game.

As we watched Contreras trot to the mound, I explained this to the Phils fan with me, who asked: "What's wrong with Durbin?"

"Hold on," I said, "while I get his stats."

Sure enough, as with the Phils' game 1 loss and their game 2 victory, I was right on the money. Too bad in Charlie's eyes Durbin floats in the sky basking in glorious light. Or is it merely Charlie's eyes?

"Durbin has been a very reliable pitcher for the Phils," said Joe Buck, Fox play-by-play announcer, as Durbin entered the game.

The Phila. Daily News Beat Writer wrote a few weeks ago that Durbin was "tremendous" and "can always be counted on."

Even after he failed Wednesday night to likely cost the Phils their season, the Fox commentators were making excuses for him, saying that he hadn't been working regularly and had long breaks between outings in the postseason month of October, which caused his implosion and his forfeiting the lead, which the Phils would never reclaim. How are long breaks any different for him than for every other pitcher called on in relief in the playoffs? Why is Durbin always beyond reproach?

Let's examine some of his actual numbers, since everyone is so quick to assert how golden and reliable he is:

2010
Postseason: 18.00 ERA
Sept.: 6.52 ERA
July: 4.91 ERA
June 4.50 ERA

2009
Postseason: 6.75 ERA
World Series: 27.00 ERA
Aug.: 10.13 ERA
July: 6.75 ERA

I was at the Dodgers Stadium game on 8.13.08 when Durbin's luck ran out. The Phils led the Dodgers in that contest before Durbin came into the game and blew the save. He has never recovered. He posted a 6.94 ERA the following month and has not been reliable since, in over two years.

Consequently, in my post on 10.4.09, I wrote that Manuel relies upon Durbin to fault in close game situations.

On 8.7.09, in my post "Bullpen justice," I wrote:

"Am I the only one who has noticed that Chad Durbin hasn't pitched well enough to be in our bullpen? He had a 6.75 ERA in July and ... hasn't had a streak all year... Durbin has walked 33 in 48 innings... More troubling, Durbin hasn't been reliably effective since July of 2008, over a year ago. In Aug. '08, his ERA was 4.32. In September, it was 6.94.

Yet, in a tie game-- out of habit, perhaps-- Durbin is still the guy Charlie Manuel is most likely to give the ball to. Is that logical?"

On 8.31.09, I wrote:

"Durbin finished August with a 10.13 ERA, after posting a 6.75 ERA in July. There is no upward trend for him, having allowed 4 ER in his last 2 innings of work."

On 11.4.09:

"This was my argument against the Phillies carrying Durbin on their regular season roster. How could they rely on him in an elimination game in the World Series, where, in Game 6, Durbin turned a 1-run deficit into a 4-run closeout game?! It was total insanity, which I forecast...

To put Hamels, Lidge and finally Durbin in a position to self destruct in the World Series was insulting to anyone who had watched them pitch in 2009 and ultimately cost the Phils the title."

For the 2nd year in a row, it appears Charlie Manuel's habitual reliance on his charming middle reliever and Chad Durbin's sorry excuse for 'relief work' will cost the Phillies an abrupt exit to their title hopes.

We will always have 2008 and, who knows, they may win another division next year and make another run. However, barring an unforeseeable miracle, like Phillies' pitching overwhelming the Giants' timely hitting or Philly's hitters finding the pop in their bat-- the entire team has 3 postseason HRs, vs. the 19 they swatted in '08 or the 25 they hit in the '09 playoffs-- the Phillies will begin thinking 'next year' by the end of this week.

Raul Ibanez has made it painfully obvious, both with his underwhelming regular season, as well as his colossally horrific postseason effort that the Phils must make offseason priority #1 signing Scott Boras client Jayson Werth to a big fat paycheck. Platooning Ibanez and rookie Dominic Brown in left may be an option, but an outfield consisting of Ibanez in left and raw, unrefined project player Brown in right is suicidal.

Werth is every bit his name and worth every penny of whatever Boras can bleed out of the Phils. What Werth does at the bat and with the glove are absolutely invaluable to this team. The Phils are kidding themselves to think otherwise. However, I predict they will let him walk. Remember this: In 2008, they made him wait for a starting role in the outfield until late in the season, despite the fact he swatted 3 HRs and collected 8 RBIs in one game on May 16th '08. They were content to bench him for several games immediately following that offensive explosion in favor of right fielder epic disappointment Geoff Jenkins who hit .246 that year with 9 HR and 29 RBIs in 115 games. That year, Werth led the team with a .444 batting average in their 2nd-ever victorious World Series.

Wednesday, it was Werth's RBI double to plate Howard in the 8th that tied the game and his sliding catch and sliding stops in the 9th that extended the Phillies season, albeit temporarily. He took a lot of heat this year for not fairing well with runners-in-scoring-position, but he seems to be right in the middle of so much good the past 3 Octobers that it would be a travesty to see him sign elsewhere because the Phils don't appreciate how irreplaceable a piece of their current reign atop the NL East he truly is.

If the Phils do as they have claimed they will all year and let Werth walk it will be a mistake on par with trading Cliff Lee, who will likely compete against former Phils Aaron Rowand and Pat 'the bat' Burrell in the 2010 World Series beginning October 27th.

In February, I was alone in predicting S.F. would be an elite NL team in search of the title [See my 2.23.10 post.] Today, the world knows how formidable and electrifying an opponent they really are.