Phils Season Hinges on 1 Game

It was evident to anyone who has followed the Phils since mid-'10 that Roy Oswalt (9-11 this season) wasn't going to come out and close out the Cards in Game 4 of the best-of-five series-- not without a little help from his friends.

The pitching matchup between Oswalt and Edwin Jackson in St. Louis Wednesday night promised to be an offensive battle, the perfect counterpart to Tuesday's Hamels vs. Garcia pitchers duel.

The Phils scored 1st, beginning the game on a scoring frenzy that yielded 2 runs, but should have plated more. Rollins, who has been scary good (9-for-14 with 4 doubles), hit a ground-rule double to the deepest part of the park. Chase Utley followed with a triple, then Pence singled and-- just like that-- the Phils were up 2-0 with nobody out. The next batter was Ryan Howard, a chance for more damage.

Howard struck out and Pence was thrown out in an unlikely double play that killed the inning and what turned out to be the only run-producing Phils rally of the game. It was the 1st of a hat trick of strike outs for Howard in the game and each one seemed, like the 1st, to lead to a series of unfortunate events.

Howard fell to 2-for-15 in the series with 6 S.O., hitting .133 with a .176 OBP (1 BB). At #4 in this lineup, he has the ability to drive in runs like almost no Phillie, ever. He also has the capacity to kill rallies and end dreams quicker than Mitch Williams.

Wednesday was that kind of night for Ryan Howard, the kind where dreams become nightmares.

After Howard's strikeout in the 1st, the Phillies would score only 1 more time in the game, and it wasn't off their bats, it was due to a wild pitch in the 8th. In that inning, Howard came up with 2-out, Utley on 2nd (again) and the run in cutting the deficit to 5-3 Cards. One swing of the bat could tie it.

On 9.22.11, I wrote, "Howard, for example, is solved by following the Yankees' blueprint circa '09, which the Giants, in '10, did so effectively: throw him offspeed stuff out of the Zone and watch him flail." La Russa did just that, bringing in lefty Marc Rzepczynski, who struck out Howard on 3 pitches. The Phillies never scored again and lost 5-3. Ouch.

Saturday, 4 short days ago, may as well have been another planet. The Ryan Howard who had a HR and 4 RBI in game 1 of this NLDS series vs. St. Louis a martian who had returned to his home planet. The Ryan Howard who remained? A fallen soldier, rescued from the front lines, palms sweating, hands shaking, terrified. The gun removed from his clutching hands for fear he would hurt himself.

Howard hit zero HRs throughout the '10 playoffs. It was that impudent aura that enveloped him again as his team put all the pieces together for him to be the hero, something they have done so effectively these past few years. Rollins was on fire, Utley was hustling, the 2 core Phillies, whose double-play combinations are regarded as the league's best and whose hearts have led them to awesome heights in this series (Utley .462 Ave., Rollins .563 Ave.), were relaying the ball to 1st and getting into scoring position for Howard to finish the play...

Only Howard was lost inside his head, driving it into the back-end of the bat in the dugout, instead of driving balls out of the park.

"I think I've been a little bit anxious trying to go up and trying to make things happen instead of letting things happen," Howard said. "Right now I'm just kind of jumping."

Meanwhile, St. Louis native Howard's counterpart, the slugger on the other team, baseball's best player, Albert Pujols was busy doing his regular superman act. Pujols hit .299 with 99 RBI this year, career lows by far. Yet, in game 3, Pujols went 4-for-5 at the plate. Wednesday, he had an off-day at the plate, 0-for-4. He appeared human. Looks can be deceiving.

Utley walked to lead off the 6th with the Phils trailing 3-to-2. Pence was the next batter, and he grounded into a fileder's choice to SS Furcal, who gunned to 1st for the standard out. However, Utley made a smart baseball move, very aggressive, very Utley. He wanted to be the tying run and would make it happen. Utley slowed at 2nd base, as if to stop there, faking Furcal, then began a sprint toward 3rd when Furcal began his throw to 1st to get Pence.

The thing is, someone forgot to tell Utley that Pujols isn't like normal mortals. His eyes rotate around his head, free standing, like Elmer Fudd after he has been hit by Bugs Bunny. Upon receiving the ball at 1st, Pujols ignored Pence and instead immediately gunned a perfect strike to 3rd to get Utley, easy.

"This is obviously the playoffs, but that's a play I can make in the regular season, too," Pujols said. "If I would have stayed on the bag, it was going to be tough to get the runner at third. Obviously, that killed the rally right there."

Every time Pujols stepped up to the plate, cameras flashed, capturing what many thought would be the last game he ever played for the Cardinals before sailing off into the free agency sunset to sign a 100-year, 200-zillion dollar deal with N.Y., Boston or L.A. en route to retirement.

They might be right. It may be the end of an era. However, the era ending might not be Pujols and the Cardinals. Winners of 16 of their final 21 regular season games and now toe-to-toe with the 102 game winning Phillies, the Cardinals are playing for house money Friday with very little on the line. It's the home team that has to sweat.

If the Phillies fall short of their 4th-straight NLCS and if Ryan Howard continues to free-fall to make it possible, their season will undoubtedly be a disappointment-- for the players, the franchise and the fans. It's hard to believe things are so good that we can honestly say that, but it is truer than the bluest sky. Losing the World Series title this season would be a disappointment. Losing round 1 of the playoffs would be a colossal disaster.

After all the money and expectations built in to this moment, walking away short of a playoff series win just wouldn't cut it. This isn't 2007. It's not 'one to grow on.' This is the culmination of 102 wins, which may as well be 90, which is what the Cardinals won, since the 2 teams are locked in an NFL-esque playoff showdown, where 1 game will decide their respective fate.

Lucky for the Phils, they will have the pitching equivalent of Pujols on the mound. Halladay is no Cliff Lee. The 2 men are very different. In both June and August, Lee was 5-0 with an ERA below 0.50. In July, he was 1-2 with an ERA of 4.91. Lee led baseball with 6 shutouts this season, because he can dominate a game from start to finish more often than Halladay.

'Doc' has those no-hitters on his dossier, but typically he will turn in a superlative performance, allowing 2 runs in 7 innings. The thing that makes him so special, though, is the number of times he will get smacked around and allow 6 or 8 runs-- practically never. It happened twice this year, in 33 starts. He allowed 6 earned runs to Boston in May and the Yankees in June. His ERA never went over 3.00, not for a single month, all season.

I saw Halladay with sub-par stuff at Dodger Stadium in '10. He won the Cy Young that year, but his location that night was all wrong. He allowed 11 hits in 7 innings, not great by any measure. He also allowed too many runs-- for him. He gave up 3. The Phils didn't win that night, but they could have. That's the point.

On 10/16/10 vs. S.F. in game 1 of the NLCS, Halladay pitched through a groin-pull injury, in a physical condition where normal people can't walk. He held the World Series Champion Giants to 4 runs in 7 innings, despite his pain. He S.O. 7 and walked nobody. At worst, he puts his team in a position to win; at best, he wins the game for them with impenetrable dominance.

Friday, 2-time Cy Young Halladay (1-0 in this series) will oppose his former Toronto teammate of 5 years and good friend, former Cy Young Chris Carpenter (0-1).

"They're good friends and old teammates, and Carp was really chomping at the bit for this opportunity to pitch against Roy on full rest in a huge Game 5," Cardinals outfielder Matt Holliday said. "It should be quite a battle and then it'll be fun to watch two great competitors go head to head and two great teams get after it."

Phillies manager Charlie Manuel agreed."Might be fitting that it goes down to the fifth game," he said. "It's up to us to go get it. It's sitting right there for us. We've got our ace going, and we're at home, and so everything is sitting right there."

Friday, the Phils will try to become the 3rd franchise in baseball history to win a postseason series in 4 straight years. The Phillies can and should win game 5. Their ace will be on the mound, they will be at home, they are the better team. Anything short of victory will tarnish the armor-- Amaro's, Howard's, Lee's... this team in franchise and baseball history. Win and advance, shed themselves of the pesky, capable, adrenaline-driven Cardinals and the sky might just be the limit.