Are Phils Fans Front-Runners?

To say that the Phillies are in trouble is like saying the passengers on the Titanic were in for a bumpy night.

Sunday, they lost in extra-innings for the 2nd day in-a-row.  Losing 8 of 9 games to fall to a season-high 8 games out of 1st place may be the end of their postseason hopes.  Then again, it may not.

Either way, the speed and enthusiasm with which certain unnamed Philly reporters (i.e., Hayes, Murphy) and fans (some in attendance at the tail end of the last homestand) have jeered and berated the Phils is the their own undoing.  Let me explain.

In Spring Training 2007, Jimmy Rollins famously called the Phillies "The Team to beat" in the NL East.  They won the division that year and haven't lost it since.  Rollins was NL MVP and his bravado proved prophetic.

On August 9th, 2008, during a taping of Fox Sports' "Best Damn Sports Show Period," Rollins infamously called Phillies fans "front-runners."

Sign displayed at City Hall during '08 World Series parade

"There are times," he said. "I might catch some flak for saying this, but, you know, they're front-runners. When you're doing good, they're on your side. When you're doing bad, they're completely against you."

Rollins, with co-guest Ryan Howard seated next to him, gave a shout-out to Howard's hometown of St. Louis:

"For example, Ryan is from St. Louis and St. Louis, it seems like they support their team, they're out there and encouraging. In Philly, can't be no punk."

St. Louis beat Philadelphia by 1 run in the final game of their first round series in last year's playoffs to advance and eventually win the World Series.  Was that, in part, due to their loyal fanbase?  

The Phillies are 12-19 at Citizens Bank, the second worst home record in all of baseball.

Is it the fans fault that the top 3 Phils are all presently inactive due to injury?  Did the fans leave an endless stream of runners-in-scoring-position this season to dig a potentially inescapable last-place hole for their team?

The Phils are 4-12 in 1 run games.  They are 2-6 in extra-innings.  That 6-18 mark, as well as their disastrous home record, is likely to improve, although it may be too little too late to save this season. 

Their season hinges on players like B.J. Rosenberg and Joe Savery, who lost Saturday and Sunday's games in relief and Jim Thome, who turns 42 in a few weeks, who now bats cleanup and tries to both stay healthy and regain his former power glory, which he displayed 8 years ago with the Phils amidst a big contract.

While hitting into four inning-ending double plays Saturday in Baltimore, the 2012 Phils looked cooked.

There was Chris Wheeler reminiscing during a broadcast last week about when it was fun at the ballpark for Phils fans.  Meanwhile, the Phils were swept by the Dodgers, a team the Phils spent the '08 and '09 postseasons crushing the hopes and dreams of, winning an unlikely 8-of-10 NLCS games between the two.

Payback.  Fans around the country are mocking the high-spending Phils for 'getting what they deserve.'

But should Phils fans be doing it?  After all, this is the team that has given us so many thrills these past 5 plentiful years.  Frustration finds a way out.  Still, did the boos and rotten tomatoes make Mike Schmidt better or did it merely chase away Scott Rolen?

There were the Dodgers broadcasters last week:  The "Boo-birds are out," one Dodger broadcaster observed of the restless Bank crowd, tired of squandered opportunities.  "You get the sense that these fans are just waiting for something terrible to happen."  And it did.  The Phils, who had a 3-run lead at the end of 3 innings managed to surrender 8-straight runs to cap the sweep and lose their 6th in-a-row.

They went 1-for-12 with runners in scoring position in that one.

Can they recover to salvage this season?  That remains to be seen.

They've won first place for 5-straight years.  They've trailed first place at some point during most of those years.  In '09, they lost 6-straight games and 11-of-13 in late June, yet won the NL East by 6 games over Miami.  In '10, they were 7 games out of first place on July 21.  Still, they won the division by 6 games over Atlanta.

However, with each passing day, new injuries, mishaps in the field, pitching miscues and clutch-less at-bats add up to dismal defeat.

The Phils are deep in a free-fall.  It hurts to watch because we care so deeply.

Cliff Lee failed to win again Sunday. His last win? September 26th, 2011.  This year, he achieved a dubious distinction as the 1st Phillies pitcher since 1912 with a 3.00 ERA or below with 8 starts and 0 wins.  He now has 10 starts and 0 wins, but his ERA has sailed to 3.18.

These days, beating the Phils with Lee-- or anyone, for that matter-- on the mound is like taking candy from a baby.  It's a journey backward through the mostly dismal annals of team history, which is to say the most harrowing loss-rich log of any sports franchise, ever.

"We don't scare nobody," Charlie Manuel said Thursday, and he could have been speaking of any of a number of clusters of 30 or 40 years of Phillies teams.

"We used to have a swagger. We used to be kind of cocky in a real good way. Teams used to definitely fear us. I definitely don't see that fear no more. I'm sorry. I'm answering the question very honestly. I don't see where we scare nobody. Nobody backs down from us. Matter of fact, they come right at us. They take it right to us."

It's hard to have swagger when you're playing without your leaders.  Rollins is the only leader left standing for this team.  His .240 Ave. and .291 OBP hardly equal swagger.  However, does his fading twilight deserve cold shoulders and dismissive scorn?  If so, was he right when he called Phils fans "front-runners?"

Are Phils Sellers?

The Phillies lost 4-3 to the Dodgers Monday in Philadelphia.  They dropped to 28-28 on the year.  5-5 in their last 10.  Last place.  4 Games Back.

The Phils are within striking distance of 1st, yet don't appear, by any stretch, about to storm the hill.

They are, well, mediocre, unproven.  A story waiting to be told.

What if...?

Halladay comes back and looks like himself.  Howard comes back and makes the difference.  Utley rebounds into unlikely, heroic folklore glory.

GM Amaro Jr. can't be sleeping well these days

What if, instead, the Phils bases loaded hopes continue to rest on the shoulders of journeymen like Ty Wigginton and Hector Luna?

According to ESPN this week, the Phillies are presently the 16th best team in baseball-- out of 30.  Middle of the road.

With the injury to Halladay, rumors are flying about how the Phillies are going to be sellers at the trade deadline for the first time since 2006.

In '05, Future Hall of Fame 1B Jim Thome went on the DL and Howard emerged, winning Rookie of The Year.  Today, both Thome and Howard play for the Phils and both 1B reside on the DL.

The next year, '06, the Phils unloaded payroll at the trade deadline, since everyone had written them off as 'in need of rebuilding.'  Notably, stars Bobby Abreu (OF) and Rheal Cormier (RP) were sent packing.

However, Ryan Howard led the team to within an inch of the playoffs, willing them the best 2nd half record in baseball and winning the '06 MVP.

The next year, '07, Rollins won MVP and the Phils won their 1st of 5-straight division titles, highlighted by '08's World Series win and '11's club-best 102 regular-season victories.

So, is the sports world correct that the Phils will be unloading high-salary dead weight at the trade deadline, looking to rebuild?  Are you kidding?

A few months after setting the franchise mark for regular season wins and attendance, there is no way these Phils are built for anything but victory.

But can they fulfill that promise?

Manuel relieves Blanton and Phils fans

Cliff Lee still has no wins this season.  Utley-Howard have combined for 0 AB.  Mayberry Jr. is on-pace for 6 HR and 32 RBI FOR THE YEAR.  Rollins is batting .242.  Victorino .247.  Joe Blanton may be flipping burgers next year, after surrendering 25 runs on 37 hits in his last 19 2/3 innings.  (That's 2 hits an inning!)

Monday's Game 1 of a 4-game homestand against the dreaded Dodgers, consisted of no Matt Kemp or James Loney in the starting lineup.  Instead, Ivan DeJesus Jr., whose dad won the World Series with the '80 Phils and Bobby Abreu, who was one of the key players moved during the Phils '06 salary unload, appeared for the Dodgers.

Instead of Howard, the Phils platooned 2 1B in 1 game, Wigginton and Hector Luna, who were a combined 0-for-5 with an improbable 4 strikeouts.

It was a bit like a strike year scab match.

Charlie Manuel again used Papelbon in a non-save situation and Papelbon, so brilliant as a closer this year, again stank in a win-opportunity.

The highlight of the game was middle relievers Antonino Bastardo and Joe Savery acing the 5th-8th innings, S.O. 6 and allowing no runs.

Joseph Cain Savery has had an unorthodox journey.

In '09, Savery went 16-6 as a minor league starter, shining in AA.

In '10, he went 1-12, giving up 51 walks in 127.1 innings in AAA.

During the '10 off-season Savery was converted into a hitter in the hope that he could recapture his collegiate success as a position player.

In '11, Savery batted .307 for Clearwater. He was later promoted to AA, then AAA, where he was once again converted to a pitcher, but this time a relief pitcher. He compiled a dominant 1.80 ERA with 2 saves and an impressive 25/6 S.O./BB ratio in 25 innings.

He began the '12 season with the Major League Phils for the 1st time in his career.

Monday was the most outs he has recorded in 1 Major League game.  His teaming with Bastardo for shutout middle relief was a good sign for ailing Charlie Manuel, who was forced to bat Hector Luna (career 14 HR in 761 AB) at cleanup Sunday in the rubber match vs. the Marlins due to abounding injuries.

For the Phils, it has to get better.

It seemed to Friday against Miami.  The Phils improved to 28-25 and moved to just 2 1/2 games out of first place.  It seemed so easy, too easy, maybe.

Chooch is enjoying a career year

Cole Hamels (8-1 at the time) was pitching Saturday's game with a chance to step over the red-hot Marlins and clinch the series.

It was not to be.  3 losses later and the Phils are 28-28, .500, a clean slate, 4 GB of 1st and the Wild Card.

Waiting for something great.  Waiting for someone not named "Chooch" or "Cole" to do something spectacular.  Waiting for the return of Mr. September.

GM Ruben Amaro Jr. told csnphilly.com early last week that Howard was unlikely to return in June.

Howard said Friday on his website, RyanHoward6.com, that "rehab is going very well." He said that he's been hitting in simulated games and that his leg is getting a lot stronger.

We'll see.  Is this the 'fork in the road' that leads to the next lap ahead or is it the 'fork in the road' as in it's time to put a fork in this leg of the franchise, because it's cooked?

One thing is for certain: the sports world can hold onto their hats and exhale.  These Phils aren't sellers.  Reuben Amaro and co. aren't ready to relinquish their 'King of the Hill' crowns just yet.

They've played 56 games, with 106, approximately 2/3 of the season, left to play. 

This season is still theirs to write.

Tuesday 7:05 PM ET

Dodgers: Billingsley (2-4, 4.09 ERA)

(34-21, 13-12 away)

at

Phillies: Lee (0-2, 3.00 ERA)

(28-28, 12-16 home)

Halladay Out 6-8 Weeks; Oswalt to Texas



Halladay feeling pain Phils fans have felt all season.

Roy Halladay, the Phillies ace is expected to miss 6 to 8 weeks because of a right latissimus dorsi strain, the latest major setback for the 5-time NL East defending champions.

The two-time Cy Young winner will be shut down for a minimum of three weeks, then work toward rejoining the rotation, Phillies assistant general manager Scott Proefrock said, adding that there is no structural damage in Halladay's shoulder.

There is speculation that this will hasten the return of starter Vance Worley (3-2, 3.07 ERA), who went on the 15-day DL May 12th (Right elbow inflammation).  Worley threw a pain-free bullpen session Tuesday.

Halladay was put on the 15-day disabled list Tuesday, two days after he was hit hard and pulled from a start in St. Louis after just two innings because of shoulder soreness.

Proefrock said tests done in Philadelphia indicated Halladay doesn't need surgery to recover and that the injury doesn't affect his rotator cuff.

"We hate to have him down, but it's nothing that requires anything other than rest," Proefrock said in N.Y. before Tuesday's game against the Mets.

“He is all about winning and playing every day and puts in everything he can for the team,” rightfielder Hunter Pence said. “You feel bad for him and happy it’s not too serious.”

Halladay is 4-5 with a 3.98 ERA in 11 starts. He has pitched at least 220 innings in each of the past six seasons, and four times led the league in innings. His 72 1/3 innings this year tied Houston's Wandy Rodriguez for the NL lead.
 
Halladay has "thrown a lot of bullets over his career," Manuel said, suggesting the 35-year-old pitcher could step back for a bit and still be dominant. The durable Halladay had not been on the DL because of shoulder trouble since 2004.

"He's got to get well," Manuel said, showing the concern and trepidation echoed among Phils fans.

The injury came with the Phillies at 26-25, last in their division, but only 4 games behind Washington.

Tuesday night, the Mets improved to 6-2 against the Phillies this year behind Jeremy 'Unlikely To Be A Major-Leaguer For Long' Hefner's first MLB win.

One senses that the Mets would feel confident with Mickey Mouse on the mound for them against the Phils this year.

Rich Dubee is lacking insights on Blanton.

In Tuesday's game, Joe Blanton got shelled again, allowing 6 runs, 9 hits, 2 walks and 2 HRs (including 1 to the pitcher) in just 5 innings of work.  Blanton is now 4-5 with a 5.05 ERA, but has a whopping 5.94 ERA in May.  Yikes! 

It might be time to grab a rake and a magnifying glass to locate a remaining gem among the ravaged farm system, as Blanton appears out of control of his pitches and grasping for consistency.  It might also be time for pitching coach Rich Dubee to say something other than, 'Uh, yeah, I got a lot of talent out there, on that there mound thingy,' which has been his consistent refrain since 2010's star-studded Phils rotation was launched.

Blanton threw only 53 of his 89 pitches Tuesday for strikes.  The baffling and frustrating part is that Blanton allowed no runs in 9 innings on May 3rd, then 1 run in 7 innings on May 14th. 

However, Tuesday, he resembled the Blanton whose last 2 outings were 4 1/3 innings pitched, apiece, allowing 7 runs in each game (May 19 & 24).

Also, Tuesday, any hope of improving the injury-plagued rotation (Lee, Worley, now Halladay) from outside the club-- i.e., Roy Oswalt ala Pedro Martinez in '09-- took a major sidestep Tuesday, when, with impeccably bad timing for the Phils, their former 4th star starter Oswalt signed with Texas.

Meanwhile, Tuesday, the Miami Marlins continued to excell.  They not only beat the Washington Nationals for the second straight day; they also improved their May record to a MLB-best 20-8. The monthly win total is the most in franchise history.

"Oh don't forsake me, oh my Howard-Utley..."

The injury-plagued Phils have managed to stay close (4 GB), despite zero games played by either All-Star hitters Ryan Howard (Achilles tendon) and Chase Utley (knee). Manuel said he hopes that they will both be back at some point this year.

"That is my expectation," assistant GM Scott Proefrock said. "I don't have a crystal ball. Our expectation is we will get them both back at some point. When we get those guys back it will be great, but in the interim we have to worry about what we are doing out here. The players who are able to play for us and contribute are the ones we need to be concerned about and try to find a way to make them better and move forward."

As for Halladay's absence, "it would hurt us," Manuel said. "How much, I really don't know."

After a visit to the doctor to examine his sore right shoulder on Tuesday, word came back that Roy Halladay is expected to miss 6-8 weeks with a strained right latissimus dorsi strain.

This is the first time Halladay has landed on the disabled list since 2009.

Phillies assistant general manager Scott Proefrock said tests indicated Halladay doesn't need surgery and it doesn't affect his rotator cuff.

To fill his spot on the 25-man roster, catcher Erik Kratz was recalled from Class-AAA Lehigh Valley, because Carlos Ruiz (.366 Ave., 4th in MLB) is suffering from a hamstring injury that kept him out of the lineup Tuesday.

Halladay has struggled the past couple of months. He has won only once since April 16, going 1-5 with a 5.29 ERA.

For the season, he is 4-5 with a 3.98 ERA and has lost velocity on his fastball, according to scouts and confirmed by Phillies manager Charlie Manuel.

"This is a true test of our character to find out what kind of team we are,'' Phillies center fielder Shane Victorino said before the results were announced. "I still think we're a great team, and we'll be fine."

More on Roy Oswalt joining the Rangers


Oswalt was mediocre with Phils in '11.

Nolan Ryan was thrilled to have Texas star Roy Oswalt in the fold with baseball's best team:

"He's been throwing for quite a while now; he feels good about where he is," Rangers president Nolan Ryan said. "I think he's been away long enough that he's excited about coming to the Rangers and getting back to pitching on a regular basis."

Sources said the contract for Oswalt assumes that if he's called up by July 1, he'll make $4 million and can make another $1 million in incentives based on the number of starts he makes.

A source said Oswalt could be ready to join the Rangers' rotation by June 20, meaning he'll need at least three weeks in the minors to build up his arm strength and to get used to pitching to live hitters.

The St. Louis Cardinals, Philadelphia Phillies and Los Angeles Dodgers all were interested in Oswalt and made various offers, some exceeding that of the Rangers. However, Oswalt's relationship with Ryan when both were with the Astros organization, the proximity to Oswalt's home and that the Rangers are in contention helped the club land him. 
 
In 2011, Oswalt went 9-10 with a 3.69 ERA in 23 starts for the Phillies. His 139 innings pitched were his lowest total since 2003 and his postseason ERA was 7.50.  He doesn't appear to be a difference-maker at this point in his career.

For starters, he'll need a change of luck.  In eight career starts at Rangers Ballpark, Oswalt is 2-5 with a 4.78 ERA.

Are The Phillies Washed Up?

The Phils were just swept by the N.Y. Mets.  It's as hard-to-believe as it is painful to swallow.  It was the Mets first sweep of a three-game series in Philly since June 2006.

The Phils have lost 6 of their last 8 games.  They had leads in ALL of those games-- sometimes as much as a 6-run lead.  With the offense finally beginning to produce runs (78 runs in 16 games; 4.88 runs/game), perhaps the team's worst flaw on the current roster has been exposed: their bullpen.

In 2008, the Phils and Dodgers battled for the league's best bullpen.  Since then, the Phils beefed up their star rotation and let the bullpen go to pot, figuring it irrelevant.  Now, the bullpen ERAs read like the cost of gasoline: ever-increasing at eye-popping and infuriating rates.  Kendrick 7.32, Contreras 8.59, Sanches 11.25, Schwimer 8.53, Stutes 6.35...

The Phillies bullpen ranks 30th out of 30 ML teams with a 5.59 ERA.  Opponents are hitting .277 against them and they have a record of 2-8.  That's the difference between the Phils potentially being in first place and the reality of their being in last place.

It's not simply the incompetence of the bullpen, but how poorly it is used by manager Charlie Manuel, who has resurrected his early managerial career tendency for drawing criticism and appearing inept.  This season, the Phils have lost 5 games in the 9th inning or later.  Papelbon was not used by Manuel in any of those games.

Perhaps those were 5 games that Manuel felt like resting his star closer.  However, Papelbon is a perfect 9-9 in saves this season and cost the Phils $50-million.  Those 5 games match the Phils' GB ("Games Back") of first place.  To make matters worse, Manuel elected to use Papelbon in a 2-2 9th inning tie on Monday in a non-save situation in an inexplicable move which was lacking in strategic logic.  The game resulted in Papelbon's first loss of the season.  Papelbon's April ERA as a closer: 0.90.  His May ERA as a non-save reliever? 13.50.

Sunday night's ESPN "Game of the Week" was a National spread on the Nationals.  According to ESPN, the new face of baseball is the young, talented Washington Nationals.  They even have their own catchy nickname, "Natitude," which sounds about as substantial as a drive-through combo-meal.  "Would you like the Happy Harper Burger or a Strasburg Shake with that?"  Washington had taken the first 2 of the 3-game series by outscoring the Phils 11-4, knocking them to last place, a full 5 1/2 games back.

Sunday, Cole Hamels and Hunter Pence would not let that trend continue.

Hamels struck media darling Bryce Harper, the 19 year-old phenom whose hype is unmatched in baseball's storied history, with a "welcome to the big leagues" fastball to the back and extended his intensity by holding the Nationals to 1 run, while Pence pounded 2 HR and is currently on pace for 35 this season (25 is his career high).  Impressively, that's without Utley and Howard in the lineup, so the pitches Pence has seen thus-far in the clean-up spot are significantly worse than those he's likely to see when he relinquishes the role to Howard.

Sunday, ESPN lauded the Nationals, gushing about not simply their young exciting starting pitching, but also their electrifying bullpen and not to forget their promising young bats.

Oh, and they talked about the Phils, too.  Not only their lack of offense, but also their failures from the mound and not to forget their unenviable agedness.

Jayson Werth broke his wrist on Monday

Perhaps to underscore the limp Phillies organization, as if to say, 'out with the old', the days following the Nationals series whipping saw Jayson Werth's career-threatening break to his chronically injured wrist.   Meanwhile, Ryan Madson will not throw a pitch this year due to injury.  It's as if even the Phils who are no longer Phils have passed their prime and are baseball extinct.

Even Chase Utley's HR in batting practice with the team Wednesday (he claims to be pain-free at the plate) seemed vastly overshadowed by the fact that he has yet to field ground balls at the professional level this year, even in simulation.

"Grounders are harder because I have to get my legs under me and in a more athletic position," Utley said Wednesday. "Those are things that I'm going to have to progress doing. I can't just go out there and take 100 ground balls right off the bat. I know myself and, at this point, that wouldn't be good for me."

Over the past week, the media has been flooded with stories of Roy Halladay's "decreasing velocity."  "In 2010, Halladay's cutter averaged 91.3 miles per hour. This season, it has dipped to 88.9," they argue.  "In 2009, his sinker averaged 92.6 mph and topped out at 95.8. In 2012, that average is at 90.6 with a max of 92.8."

"No pitcher in baseball has thrown more innings than Halladay in the regular season since 2006," they warn, "And he has the most complete games of any active pitcher, 16 more than the next-closest."

Then, there was the Cole Hamels smear.  After Hamels hit Harper Sunday, everybody and their grandma came out to blast him, including top-notch loudmouth Curt Schilling:  “What the hell does that even mean? I’m old and I’m a former player, and I don’t understand it.”  He called Hamels “selfish,” “stupid” and “hypocritical.” 

"I was trying to hit him. I'm not going to deny it," Hamels, who never claimed to be big in brains told reporters.  "It's something I grew up watching. That's what happened. I'm just trying to continue the old baseball...  I remember when I was a rookie, the strike zone was really, really small and you didn't say anything. That's the way baseball is. Sometimes the league is protecting certain players. It's that old-school prestigious way of baseball."

Nationals general manager Mike Rizzo told The Washington Post that Hamels hitting Harper with a pitch was "classless" and "gutless."

Typically, guys get away with 'beaning' batters by claiming "the ball got away from me" or "I missed my location."  Hamels contrastingly said, "I'm not going to lie and say I wasn't trying to do it."  Hamels was lambasted far-and-wide within the sports world, then fined and suspended 5 games by baseball for his candor.  "He could have been a little more discreet or less honest," his manager, Charlie Manuel said.

Still, perhaps the fact that Hamels kept coming back to the word "old" was fitting.  That's how this team is now viewed.  They're old, they're feeble, they're broken down.  Maybe that's true.  Then again, maybe it's not.

Losing games by stranding 12 runners on base won't prove that point.  Failing to score with nobody out and the bases loaded won't do it either.  Neither will blown leads by the bullpen or the manager's failure to use it effectively.  Even the return of Utley-Howard may not lead this team to its former glory or a semblance of its former self.

However, if they can continue to score runs, they can eclipse some of the bad luck.  That part of it will balance out over the 162-game season.

For example, the Phils have lost 5 games by 1 run.  They are 0-4 in extra-innings.  Their 3-hole and 4-slot hitters have played a net sum of zero games this year.  Some of these statistics have to be in their favor.

Yes, the Phils are presently 4 1/2 games behind the on-paper piss-poor Mets.  However, the Phils runs scored/allowed differential is twice as good. 

Utley's injury, progress and the future of his career remain an enigma.

There will start to be games when the hitting and the pitching successes take effect on the same night.  That will make up for some of the present hardship in the standings.

The Nationals will fall.  The Braves may not.  The Mets will.  So, probably, will the underachieving Marlins.  Getting Utley-Howard back will help, so will some prudent managing by Charlie Manuel, which he is capable of-- or so we hope.

The Phillies' bullpen remains a serious concern.  However, just as starters are often scarce at the trading block, relievers always seem available, often at an attainable price.  The Phils should start looking now, prizing those gems among the teams that figure to be out of contention and pocket money, hungry for prospects to replace arms that require millions to retain.

There's no guarantee that this year's team is going anywhere.  They may in fact miss the playoffs for the first time since 2006.  After all, 2006 is the last time the Mets swept the Phils at home, which they did again Wednesday night.

However, there's just as much reason to believe-- perhaps more, thanks to the success of the past 5 years, that this team has fight left in them.  True, personnel has changed, but not all of it.  There's plenty of reason to believe, despite a media onslaught of naysaying, that Halladay, Lee, Hamels, Utley, Howard, Victorino, Rollins and Chooch, who have defined this team's highest achievements the last 5 years, have life left in them.

Furthermore, since baseball more than any other sport is a marathon, not a sprint, which is played over an incomparably long season, let the kids like the Nationals sprint out to first place, while the veterans' cool presence unfolds over 162 games.

Only a paltry few 100-win teams have succeeded in the postseason.  A staggering percentage of 90-win Wild Card teams have.

The Phils won the World Series in '08 after winning 92 games, then returned the next year after winning 93.  Last season's 102-win team got bumped in the first round.

If this team is to make the playoffs, it may take a late-season charge and last-week dramatics.  However, isn't that the way to get there, on a roll?  Whether they can make the necessary adjustments and find the chemistry as they shuffle lineups in ensuing months remains to be seen.  However, for the Phillies fan and the National Media alike, counting them out already seems disloyal and premature.

They still have 2 World Series appearances, 1 ring, 5-straight division titles, 2 MVPs, 3 CY Young Awards and a Rookie-of-the-Year on this team.  They are, to some extent, innocent until proven extinct.

Phillies Glass Half Full

The Phils started May Tuesday night the way they started the season on April 5th: with a win.  With their win in Atlanta, the Phils pulled to 12-12 .  Ah, a new month, a fresh start, a clean slate.  .500 baseball.  They can write their own destiny from here.  The last time the Phils were above .500 this year was when they were 1-and-0.  With a win in Atlanta on Wednesday-- Roy Halladay (3-2, 1.95 ERA) vs. Tommy Hanson (3-2, 3.00 ERA), they can match that.

Entering Tuesday's game, John Mayberry Jr. was leading the Majors in 1 category: S.O. %.  He had S.O. 17 of his 49 at-bats, most in baseball with as many at-bats.  Meanwhile, the Braves' trusty reliever Jonny Venters had struck out 17 of 39 hitters, the highest S.O./9 innings pitched in MLB.

Mayberry pinch-hit for Bastardo with one out in the top of the 8th and the score tied at 2.  Venters had just taken the mound and retired the Phils' 1st batter, Freddy Galvis.  The Phils had led 2-0 behind Cole Hamels, who battled through an off-night to hold the Braves largely in-check.

However, that was erased with a Brian McCann HR in the 4th, a couple Braves' singles in the 6th and the Phils usual lack of offense.

Then, the unexpected happened.  Mayberry took the 2nd pitch from Venters to right field.  Rollins followed with a single.  Then, Mayberry scored the winning run on a wild pitch by Venters.  The Phils would win 4-2.

The runs were the first allowed by Venters this season.  "For me to give it away like that is unacceptable," he said.  "I left some sinkers up in the zone and they don't miss those pitches."

"We were all set up to win that ball game and it kind of hurts but it wasn't Jonny's day," said Braves manager Fredi Gonzalez.

Despite his early struggles, Mayberry stole one back.  Perhaps, for him, it will be the start of something good.  The 1st day of the rest of his season. Maybe the same can be said for his team. 

The Washington Nationals have lost 5-straight, propelling the Phils from 5 1/2 back to 2 1/2 games out of first place.  True, the Phils haven't done that much to help their cause.  While Washington has lost 6-of-10, the Phils have only eclipsed them by 1 game, at 5-5 in their last 10.  With Tuesday's win at Atlanta, the Phils won back-to-back games, matching their season-high.  Hard to believe they've not won more than 2-in-a-row yet, a month into the season.  Harder to believe the Phils have played 7 series so far this season and have won only 2!

No wonder the team is busy rushing Utley and Howard back to the lineup, according to national headlines, which announced Sunday that the 2 former formidable players were heading to Clearwater, ushering in notions that they are about to 'clean up this mess' and 'lead the team to certain glory.'  If only it were that simple, Charlie Manuel could take a fishing vacation in mid-June.

This isn't going to be that kind of season for the Phils-- or their fans.  Cruising to 102 wins was all nice and dandy last year, when fans pined over whether Halladay would beat out Kershaw for the Cy Young and pondered whether the Yankees would catch them for the most wins in baseball.  However, after their 1st round playoff exit, it was clear to everyone that winning 100 games is not the determining factor in a championship season.  In fact, history shows it is a deterrent.

Hard-luck Lee is winless, despite his best start ever.

No, this season is already better for the Phils than last year was.  "Better?!" you're wondering, "How could that be?!  Last year, they led MLB in wins.  Today, they are in 4th place." 

Yes, the Phils are hard to watch.  Yes, they rank 25th in MLB (out of 30 teams) in runs scored, HR, on base % and slugging %.  Yes, they have agonizingly squandered their starting pitchers' 18 quality starts (1st in baseball) in maddening and often implausible ways-- not getting Cliff Lee the win 4/18, despite his 10 shutout innings, 9 S.O. and 0 walks comes foremost to mind, but let's not discount his 1 run gem on 4/7, which the team also managed to convert into a loss.

Better yet, just glance back to Vance.  This past Monday, when Worley allowed 1 run in 7 innings, he didn't get the win.  In 5 starts this year, Worley has posted a 1.97 ERA and has S.O. 32 in 32 innings.  Yet, he has only 2 wins to show for it.  Cliff Lee has a 1.96 ERA, a 0.70 WHIP (2nd lowest in the NL behind 0.68 Matt Cain, SF) and a K/9 of 7.04.  How many wins has he notched as a result of this staggeringly awesome dossier?  None.  He has no wins, despite his undeniable control and dominance so far in '12.  

If you're frustrated with these Phils, rest assured that the starting pitching staff and their former hitting coach manager Charlie Manuel are far more frustrated than you are.

Furthermore, take comfort in the fact that the teams who blossom late, rather than those who lead the pack out of the gate are the ones who are made for title greatness.  The 100 win teams, history shows, are not likely for championship honors.  However, the teams that come together late in the year are the ones most likely to spread their October wings for World Series glory.

The 2008 Phils were just such a team.  Like the '12 Phils, they too were 8-10 after 18 games, which isn't to ensure anything, only to say that it can get better from here.  Will it?  5 signs point in that direction:

1) Papelbon - The Phils finally have a supreme closer again.  For the 1st time since '08, they have a lock-down 9th inning arm.  Papelbon leads the major leagues in saves.  Despite the Phils having won only 12 games, Papelbon has notched a perfect 9-for-9 within that dozen.

2) Starting pitching - Sure, it looked great on paper, but games are won and lost on the field and paper loses its meaning in practice.  That's why the Phils starting 4 performing at the level they have so far is so vital to a potential playoff picture.  Of course, they have to get there first.  However, Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Worley rank among the best in the NL in several categories showing that, while we may have expected it, they came prepared to deliver, which is a priceless part of this team's title hopes.

3) Howard and Utley absent - If this team were fully healthy, we may not have found out that Ty Wigginton could hit .317 in his 1st 21 games.  Even if his numbers dip to his career .265 average in coming weeks, he's one player-- Juan Pierre is another (batting .313) -- who has benefited from this time without Howard-Utley.  He has been asked to perform and has answered the bell.  That can only help during the dog days of summer and the September swoon.   Remember Matt Stairs?  Help can sometimes come from the bench in clutch moments.  Equally crucial: the Phils have finally started to practice some of the small ball they desperately now need to produce the runs the longball used to get them.

4) Howard and Utley return - In their absence, the Phils have managed a .500 record.  When they return, again: due to the pitches everyone around them will see as much as the contributions they will hopefully make, the team can only improve, because its offensive production most certainly will.  If Charlie Manuel was told before the season that his team would play their 1st 24 games without Utley or Howard, who were soon to return, and that they would find themselves 12-12 only a mere 2 1/2 games out of 1st, I think he'd have said, in his usual swaggering candor: "I'd like my odds for the rest of the season."

5) NL East - As much as the talk about the better Braves, improved Nationals and mounting Marlins filled our ears during the offseason, no one has claimed the division away from the Phils-- yet.  Washington started 14-4, destined to fall to Earth, then promptly nose-dived quicker than expected by losing 5 straight (their current streak).  The NL East is still the Phils to lose.  So far, if you project ahead, it still appears they have the best shot at winning it.  In part, despite the pitfalls they've found themselves in to this point in the season.  In part, because of them.

The Phils will play Washington 6 times this month, likely to determine 1st place.  The first series is in Washington, May 4th-6th.  The next is in Philly, May 21-23.  This Friday, May 4th, the Phils are scheduled to see Stephen Strasburg, the famed young right-hander, whose stuff is already legend. 

The Phils win Tuesday was the 1st in a 9-game stretch against NL East rivals.

"This is where we can make up our ground," Cole Hamels said. "Hopefully this can kind of spark us into being the team that we know we're capable of being and what everybody obviously expects us to be. We're playing against better teams and teams that have better records than us and we have to change that and start getting momentum back on our side and things will flow a lot easier."

Phils Snap Skid

Tuesday, the Phils beat Arizona 8-5, to snap a 3-game skid and escape becoming the 1st Phillies team since '06 to lose 4-straight in the month of April.  The Phils have been a poor April team over the past several seasons.  They generally start hitting over the summer and play their best baseball in the fall.

A glimpse at the last 5 NL East title seasons tells a tale of April woes and mediocrity with 1 exception ('11):

4/24:  Phils snap 3-game losing streak, now 7-7 

since 1-3 start.

'07 Phils were 4-11 April 20th, before winning 5-straight and finished the month 11-14.  Won division.

'08 Phils were 9-10 April 20th, but managed to finish the month 15-13.  Won division.

'09 Phils were 5-6 on April 20th and finished the month 11-9.  Won division.

'10 Phils were 8-5 April 20th and 12-10 at the end of the month.  Won division.

'11 Phils were 11-6  April 20th and 18-8 at the end of the month.  Won division.

'12 Phils were 7-7  April 20th, are now 8-10 and are well within reach of the April win % achieved by 4 of the past 5 division title Phillies teams.

In fact, with Tuesday's win over the Diamondbacks, the Phils improved to 8-10, which matches the '08 Championship team's record after 18 games.  However, few Phils fans are thinking World Series right now.

To say that the team is struggling is stating the obvious, which is what John Kruk and co. did on "Baseball Tonight" last night, when they forecast a long, bad season for the Fightin'.  In fact, the featurette link is, "Bad Phillies," while the piece itself is titled, "Are We Worried Yet?"

If you're a Phillies fan, you were born worried.  However, this time, it appears your worries are, unfortunately, confirmed every time the Phils take the field.  Perhaps even when they don't:

Cliff Lee (Oblique Strain) and Hunter Pence (left shoulder) are the latest injured Phils, joining Utley (knee) and Howard (heel) with an excess of All-Star, MVP and Cy Young brass between them.

More troubling, however, is how poor the Phils play is on the field.

Lee was dazzling for 10 innings on 4/18/12

4/18 was a pitching high and hitting low, when  Cliff Lee threw 10 astounding shutout innings, but the team failed to score behind him and lost the game.

4/23/05 - Last 10 shutout innings in any game: Mark Mulder, Cardinals: 10-inning, 1-0 win over the Astros.

7/15/94 - Last 10 shutout innings and team loss: Bret Saberhagen, Mets: 14-inning loss to the Padres.

9/21/81 - Last 10 shutout innings, Phillies: Steve Carlton, against the Expos: Expos won 1-0 in 17 innings.

Lee's career high 10 innings made him the 1st Phillies starter to eclipse 9 innings since Terry Mulholland, 5/8/93.  Lee surrendered 7 hits, struck out 7, walked none and threw strikes with 81 of 102 pitches.

After the game, Lee went on the DL with a shoulder injury, but the Phillies insist it wasn't from overuse.

"I was told I was done after 9, but I said I could easily pitch another inning," Lee said after the game.  "I tried it again after 10, but it didn't happen."

The Phillies are presently playing 15 straight games without a day off.  They are 7-7 on this string of games.

Jimmy Rollins is 3-for-32 on the current road trip. He is hitting .229 with a .267 OBP.

Meanwhile, NL East-leading Washington has hit the stride they predicted when they dropped $126 million for 7 years of Jayson Werth.  Last year, when Werth batted .232 with 58 RBI, it looked like the Phils had shed dead weight and saved a load of cash.  Who's laughing now?  Werth leads the Nationals with a .322 Ave. and a .412 OBP.  The Nationals, meanwhile, have off-season addition Brad Lidge, boast MLB's 3rd best record (12-4) and #1 ERA: 2.34.

Yes, they will fall to Earth, but that doesn't necessarily mean the Phils will catapult up.

Another early '12 low-point (perhaps, by September, we'll need a low-light reel) was this past weekend in San Diego.  I was there, along with thousands of visible Phillies fans-- and Flyers fans for that matter (the Flyers have often outscored the Phillies in April).  There were red and orange hats and jerseys everywhere as San Diego was besieged by Philly fans.

We came out to see the Phils we've come to know and love: Nix, Wigginton, Savery, Galvis, Pierre... ?!

The number of Phillies starters Sunday, who were on the roster a year ago?  3.

Phils errors Sunday: 3.

Phils runners left on base Sunday: 10.

The Phils batting average ranks among the top in the league, while their runs scored is nearly rock bottom.  They are logging some of the fewest pitches-per-at-bat in all of baseball.

The Phils boosted the Padres season record by 40% by losing twice to the hapless soon-to-be sold squad.

Noticeably absent Sunday was Jayson Werth in Right Field.  Werth's lanky frame looked light as a feather when he raced across the field and gobbled up whatever came his way.  He would lay himself out fully horizontal in what appeared to be a mile long stretch to stab the air and claim an out.  It was a thing of beauty when he and Victorino spanned 90% of the field, spreading like sunlight, while Burrell/Ibanez tried to stay out of their way as much as possible.

4/22/12, 1st inning: 1st of 2 costly misplays by Pence

Instead, Sunday, Hunter Pence was misplaying balls in Right Field (diving and missing when he clearly should've kept the ball in front of him) and costing the Phils runs like it was a preview screening of "The Three Stooges" remake.  The Phils fan to my left kept calling them, "The Bad News Bears."  The Phils fan to my right reassured me that this was just "extended Spring Training," that these players were merely "placeholders for the Real Phils."  I couldn't help thinking, 'It's April, and we're in the cellar, 5 1/2 games back.  Feels like old times.'

On the bright side, Howard will return, sooner because the team is floundering, and his presence alone will help as each player in the order sees better pitches as a result.

The pitching staff is playing to expectations: 2.81 ERA ranks 4th in the NL. 

8th inning set-up man Chad Qualls has been a nice early surprise out of the bullpen.  He surrendered his 1st run Tuesday, but ranks 2nd in the NL in Holds.

New closer Jonathan Papelbon is 6-6 in saves with a 1.13 ERA.

4/24/12:  Worley's 6 S.O. were all strike 3 caught-looking.

Vance Worley hasn't lost a beat from his Rookie-of-the-Year candidate '11 season.  Worley (2-1) lowered his ERA to 2.16 while beating Arizona Tuesday night.  Worley, who struck out a career-high 11 in 7 innings of a Phils shutout on April 20th, has 27 S.O. to 9 BB in 25 IP.

Tuesday, Hunter Pence, playing through pain snapped an 0-for-his-last 16 in the 4th inning with his 3rd HR.  He nearly hit a 2nd HR in the 7th, but it sailed foul by about a foot.

Shane Victorino hit his 4th HR Tuesday and is on pace for a career-high.  The Phils 3 HR Tuesday was a season-high.

If the Phils can reach .500 and hold there until some of the regulars come back and others start producing, they should be in a position to make a push over the summer and hit a late-season stride to yet make a run at their 6th-straight division title.

In the meantime, they have been and may continue to be at times tougher to watch than we've been accustomed to in recent years.

Expectations & Doubts Equally High

Thursday, April 5th @ 1:35 EST

Phillies	@
(0-0, 0-0 away)
Pirates
(0-0, 0-0 home)

PHI: Halladay (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

PIT: Bedard (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

It's a few hours until Opening Day.

Rarely have the words "Play Ball" struck fear into the hearts of more Phillies' fans. This time it's not because we fear the inability and ineptitude of our own players. This time it’s different. We don't fear another season of loser jokes or another in a long line at the bottom of the pack, the fate of the vast majority of Phillies' teams throughout our infamous 129-year history.

This is, after all, the oldest continuous, one-name, one-city franchise in all of professional American sports, which has provided ample opportunity for misery and heartache.

However, the 2012 season has an ominous cloud over it not because we fear the Phils, but rather because we fear our own expectations, which are perhaps unparalleled in team history. After 5-straight division titles and 2 World Series appearances, 1 title win, 2 league-MVP's and a Cy Young, the recent glory years appear at a major crossroads.

2012 will either be another year of triumph to extend this unprecedented Phillies era of glory… or the beginning of the end, the definitive slow decent into the depths of what we’ve all been waiting for: the other shoe to drop, the balancing of the scales, the return of world order. In other words, the Phillies reclaiming what is rightfully theirs, an abyss, a bottomless well of losing ways.

The Phils lead all of professional sports with over 10,000 losses. In their history, they have lost with more confidence and gusto than any other franchise, ever. If you Google "Worst Collapse Sports" you'll (naturally) find stories about the '64 Phils. After all, they had a 6 1/2 game lead in 1st place with only 12 games left in the season and managed to lose 10-straight, including 7 at home to miss the playoffs.

However, many fans may be surprised to find the Phillies $50-million offseason addition also appears when you Google "Worst Collapse Sports" due to his vital role in ending the lauded '11 Red Sox's season prematurely.

[left: Former Phils' manager Terry Francona takes ball from new Phils' closer Papelbon in miserable defeat.]

"By now, everyone has heard about Boston’s epic season collapse. Just last Friday, the Sox had a 95% chance of making the playoffs, only to blow it spectacularly and come up empty-handed. During last night’s game, with 2 outs and 2 strikes in the bottom of the 9th, Red Sox closer Jonathan Papelbon allowed 3-straight hits that put the Orioles up 4-3, handing them the win."

Maybe it was his ability to enable titanic defeat that drew him, like fate or a really dysfunctional magnet, to the Phillies' organization. Whatever it was, it beats the season-ending injury to Ryan Madson last month, leaving the Phils lucky (for this year, at least) to have replaced Madson with Papelbon, who can hardly do worse than 0 throws this season.

So, with miles of losing behind us, you’d think Phils fans would be accustomed to and comfortable with disappointment. ‘Loveable losers,’ like, say, the Cubs. However, incompatible with the number of times we’ve been asked to endure defeat, Phillies fans seem to feel each loss more deeply than almost any other teams’ fans reflect its failures.

As the Phillies prepare to open the 2012 season, the expectations are probably higher than they've ever been in team history. After all, 5 division titles and 2 World Series births, accompanied by one of the most celebrated roster of players and pitchers in all of baseball.

On 10/24/11, when the season had ended with Ryan Howard striking out, pathetically, ending the Phils postseason dreams with an early playoff exit (for the 2nd straight year), the Phillies were still seen as the favorites to win it all in '12:

Odds to win 2012 World Series
(Odds courtesy of Caesars sportsbook in Las Vegas).

PHILADELPHIA PHILLIES 5/1
TEXAS RANGERS 6/1
NEW YORK YANKEES 6/1
TAMPA BAY RAYS 7/1
BOSTON RED SOX 8/1
DETROIT TIGERS 8/1
ST LOUIS CARDINALS 8/1

Well, now the '12 season has arrived. Baseball must be played. A lot is being made of the fact that the NL East is re-tooled and powered-up. Florida made big off-season acquisitions, Atlanta remains a contender, the Nationals have improved (Brad Lidge now plays there beside Jayson Werth) and the Mets... are still in the Major-leagues (A TV near the Mets' clubhouse last month showed 2 baseball experts picking the Mets to finish last with below-average performances from their defense, rotation and bullpen. "Come on," Mets' outfielder Scott Hairston grumbled as he watched the show. "We're a major league team!" Arguably an overstatement. TRUE STORY.)

Yet, the updated odds released on 4/4/12 still have the Phils as favorites to take the title:

2012 Updated World Series Odds

Philadelphia Phillies 11/2
New York Yankees 7/1
Detroit Tigers 15/2
Los Angeles Angels 15/2
Boston Red Sox 10/1
Texas Rangers 10/1
San Francisco Giants 15/1

However, when you look at the Phils' projected Opening Day lineup it is as nonthreatening as it is unrecognizable:

Projected Opening Day Lineup

SS Jimmy Rollins
3B Placido Polanco
CF Shane Victorino
RF Hunter Pence
1B Ty Wigginton
LF John Mayberry Jr.
C Carlos Ruiz
2B Freddy Galvis (R)
Pitcher Roy Halladay

Think of it this way. Since the Phils won the World Series in '08, then lost it in '09, former Phil Pat Burrell has won the World Series ('10 with S.F.), as has former Phil Kyle Lohse ('11 with St. Louis). Now, new former Phil Raul Ibanez (the Yankees' '12 DH) will try to make it 3-in-a-row.

Meanwhile, the Phils start the year without both Ryan Howard (Achilles Injury) and Chase Utley (career-threatening knee injuries) for the 1st time since 2005. Utley says that last season it was his right knee which kept him out in the spring (he debuted on May 23rd and played a career-low 103 games in '11). Now, he says, his right knee feels "very good," and it's his left knee that is "a little upset," Utley told reporters on 3/24/12.

"I'm 33 years-old. I know some people think that's old, but I still feel like I have a lot of baseball left in me."

Just how much winning baseball this current incarnation of Phillies 'has left in them' is about to be played out over a grueling 162-game season. With the oldest infield in baseball and no more Wilson Valdez (their trusty utility infielder who now plays for the Reds alongside Madson), the Phils have a lot of proving to do. It will be anybody's guess what calendar date they will even finally play together on the field in '12. With Utley and Howard out and Ruiz, Polanco and Rollins having spent much of the last couple seasons on the DL, the Phils are likely to be a team of ace pitchers + fill-in roster spot players with all-star cameos for much of the year.

It might be Charlie Manuel's greatest test as skipper. He must weather the season, temper the fans' expectations, navigate the toughest NL East ever and make chemistry of aging stars and young players with potential (i.e., Mayberry Jr.) to form a World Series contender-- or else be seen as a failure at the helm.

[Left, Charlie Manuel: laughing now, but he may be needed to hit-- and play 3rd before the season is over.]

Manuel's .561 career winning percentage ranks 13th all-time among managers with at least 10 seasons in the majors & 3rd among active managers:

Manager/Wins/Losses/Win %

Joe Girardi/462-348/.570
Davey Johnson/ 1188-931/.561
Charlie Manuel/866-678/.561

“I think, any time you lose your 3-and 4-hole hitters it’s going to affect your offense,” Cliff Lee said this week.

“But we had to deal with injuries last year. Rollins was hurt quite a bit; Utley was out the 1st month and a half or so, but somehow we figure out a way to get it done. I expect us to do more of the same.”

“We still have a good team,” Rollins said. “It’s not the same by any means, but I’m not discounting our chances. It’s going to be different. We didn’t have a great team in ’07, and we didn’t have a great team in ’08, but we found ways to win. We’re kind of back there."

In '07, Rollins famously predicted in preseason that the Phils were "the team to beat." Nobody believed him until the team made him right over the next 162 games.

“Back then, it was the [pitching] staff was always hurt. Now it’s the guys with the bats. We’re going to have to find a way to execute, [put an] urgency on winning and those things are going to be more important because we have lost a lot of pop and a lot of good situational hitters.”

Earlier this week, NBC10’s John Clark asked Charlie Manuel on Sports Final if the Phils were still the team to beat.

“I think we’re the team to beat until somebody beats us, and I think it’s up to us to not let somebody do that,” Manuel responded, coolly.

Thursday, 1:35pm EST: Play ball!