Monday, September 5, 2011

Lee Ascending Ranks of Cy Young Competition

The Phillies began September the same way they began the playoffs last October: with a sweep of Cincinnati.

Then, they lost 2 of 3 in Florida, but have righted themselves quickly, reminding Atlanta-- 2nd to the Phils in the division and 3rd in the NL-- who's in charge.

For the 9th straight week Monday, the Phils were ranked by ESPN the #1 team in all of baseball.

On Monday night in Philadelphia, the Phils proved the point, pounding the life out of the Braves, 9-0. It was just one game, and it was fallen star Derek Lowe on the mound for Atlanta, but the Phils beat the stuffing out of their closest foe, and there was no denying that.

"They dominated every aspect of the game," Lowe said. "Sometimes you have to give credit. We got outplayed."

Cliff Lee got the win, his 16th of the season. He has won 7-straight starts, 5 of them while allowing no runs.

Lee is the 1st pitcher to record 6 shutouts in a season since '98 (Randy Johnson).

"I guess that's pretty good," Lee said, shrugging in his characteristic stoic style. "It is what it is. Obviously that's a good thing anytime you pitch the whole game and not give up any runs. But I don't think this is a time to pat myself on the back."

His manager is impressed, though:

"His command is very good, he's putting the ball where he wants to, moving his pitches around," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said. "On nights his curve is moving, he's very tough."

Lee is pitching so well, in fact, that he has become a late-blooming top prospect for the '11 NL Cy Young Award, after a sub par April (2-2, 4.18 ERA) and a 2-4 start overall.

Since then, he has gone 14-3, including being named "NL Pitcher of the Month" in June by going 5-0 with an 0.21 ERA and dazzling in August: 5-0 with a 0.45 ERA.

Lee has 11 scoreless starts of at least 7 innings pitched, easily the most in the majors and the most since John Tudor and Dwight Gooden both recorded 11 in '85.

6 shutouts, 200 S.O. in Single Season
Phillies Pitcher Since 1900

Carlton, Bunning and Alexander are members of the Baseball Hall of Fame.


Seasons
Cliff Lee 2011
Steve Carlton 1972, '82
Jim Bunning 1965, '67
Grover Alexander 1911, '14, '15, '17

Meanwhile, Chase Utley, who was mired in a 2-for-28 slump, which had plummeted his average to .263, went 2-for-5 Monday, which was a good sign for his team, who will need his playoff magic and leadership come October.

It was the 205th consecutive sellout at Citizens Bank Park.

The Phils are presently on a torrid pace to the playoffs, playing 33 games in 31 days (August 29th-Sept 28th), due to August being Philadelphia's greatest single month of rainfall in the city's history.

The Phils lead all of baseball by 4 games and on Friday, September 2nd improved to 88-46, 42 games over .500 for the 1st time in the team’s 129-year history.

Cliff Lee has been a big part of that, and he is competing for NL Cy Young in a field of pitchers largely comprised of his teammates.

Perhaps leading the pack is Arizona's Ian Kennedy, who has a league-leading record of 18-4. He has posted a 2.96 ERA, a 1.12 WHIP, 167 S.O., 51 Walks and a .231 Batting Average Against him.

Defending '10 Cy Young Roy Halladay has been neck-in-neck with Kennedy for weeks. Halladay is 16-5 with a 2.49 ERA, a 1.06 WHIP and a superlative ratio of 195 S.O. to only 26 walks and a BAA of .246.

In comparison, Lee is now 16-7 with a 2.47 ERA, a 1.03 WHIP, 204 S.O., 40 walks and a .227 BAA.

Lee has surpassed 200 S.O. for the 1st time in his career and has equaled Halladay in wins, while bettering him in most of the other top categories.

Meanwhile, teammate Cole Hamels (13-7, 2.63 ERA), leads the NL with a 0.97 WHIP and has a league-best .210 BAA. He has S.O. 169 to only 38 walks. However, a 15-day DL stint in August coupled with some poor run support has depreciated his win total to likely below what he would need to beat the stiff competition for NL Cy Young, despite this being unequivocally Hamels' best regular season of his career.

Finally, 23 year-old Dodgers' ace Clayton Kershaw is getting significant attention in the Cy Young race, and he deserves it. Kershaw is now 2nd in the NL in wins at 17-5 and ERA at 2.45 and WHIP at 1.02 (trailing only Hamels), while he's 1st in S.O. at 222 (to 50 BB).

The fact that his team is not a contender may hurt his chances, but should it? The Dodgers have a losing record and are 23rd in the NL in runs scored. That translates to poor run support and greater adversity for the premier lefty, who is undeniably dominating in his 3rd year in the league.

There is no crediting anyone else for his accomplishments. In fact, his story is very much like that of teammate Matt Kemp, whose .320 Batting Average, 32 HR, 106 RBI and 37 SB are among the league's best, but whose floundering team will likely hold him back from MVP honors.

A strong argument could be made that the Dodgers unprecedented (for them) low team morale and noncompetitive stature should have just the opposite impact on Kemp and Kershaw's Award chances, as each player's respective accomplishment is that much more impressive in contrast.

The Baseball Writers Association of America, which awards Cy Young and MVP honors, has been known to award a pitcher on a losing team the Cy Young, but rarely a position player the MVP, which could be Kemp's loss, but Kershaw's gain.

Tuesday, 7:05 pm ET, Tim Hudson will take the mound for the Braves against rookie phenom Vance Worley for the Phils:

ATL: Hudson (14-8, 3.05 ERA)
PHI: Worley (10-1, 2.85 ERA)

Monday, August 29, 2011

On The Road With The Phils, Pt.1

I had a Phantastic opportunity to view the Phils live with tickets to 4 games; 1 in L.A. and 3 in Philly over a 2-week span from August 10th-24th.

We narrowly escaped Hurricane Irene, leaving Philly the day before major cancellations and power outages across the East Coast, but our flight was cancelled the day before due to lightning storms. The storms and rainfall in Philly were amazing! The city set an all-time record for rainfall in 1 month.

Meanwhile, the Phils marched on, seeming determined to set their own single-season record for attendance and wins. They are on pace to arrive around 105 wins, which would trump the all-time Phillies record of 101, set by both the 1976 and 1977 Mike Schmidt teams. Two big talks in Philly right now are 1) fears that the Braves will catch us for the division title (that will never happen) and 2) boisterous votes for Victorino as MVP (which hardly seems just on such a star-studded roster).

Unlikely as both scenarios are, the nervousness and pride they portray are indicative of both the scars of a losing history and a deeply felt passion for our teams, 2 things Philly fans excel at like almost no other sports town. Of course, the ever-present Eagles and their major roster moves, including signing Michael Vick to a 6-year, $100 million contract, also dominate discussions, but more prevalent than ever is an intense love affair between the Phillies and the City of Brotherly Love.

Everywhere you go, there are Phillies shirts and hats and SEPTA buses scrolling the words, "Go Phillies!" It's a heartwarming and electric atmosphere. There is a camaraderie and a pleasure in the team around town that is unprecedented.

We are the best, for a change, and we know it.

The Phils have a 6 1/2 game lead on the Braves and a 3 1/2 game lead on the rest of baseball.

ESPN has ranked them as the No. 1 team in baseball for the 8th straight week.

Victorino hit his 15th HR, a game-winner in the 8th-inning to beat the Reds Monday in Cincinnati. "He's getting a lot of extra-base hits, and it seems every one he gets is big for us at this moment," manager Charlie Manuel said.

Cole Hamels returned to the mound Monday for the 1st time since 8/12. Hamels allowed only 1 run in 6 innings. He S.O. 7 and walked none.

"He looked very sharp, very good," Victorino said. "If you'd told me he was on the DL for 15 days, I'd have said, 'No way.' I hope to keep that Cole the rest of the way. I think he's back."

The Flyin' Hawaiian is on pace for a career-high 19 HR and presently has career-bests in almost every major offensive category: .308 Ave., .381 OBP, .544 SLG %, .925 OPS and 14 triples.

Furthermore, he is likely to nab his 4th-straight Gold Glove in CF (2008-present).

After last season's disappointing performance, Victorino said, "That's not me. I'm not a .259 hitter." He has proven it, and he may be the 2011 team MVP.

Phils fans are right to champion Victorino in the NL MVP race, although it's debatable whether he deserves the honor ahead of others in the league, who are doing more with less support. It is utterly clear that Hunter Pence in the 5-hole has solidified this team and made them the premier team in baseball. With Pence, the Phils are 18-7 and have scored 133 runs, which is 5.32 per game.

Most pertinently, especially as it foreshadows the team's postseason prospects, Ryan Howard has posted dramatically better numbers since Pence's arrival, which is the result of getting better pitches to hit, now that there is a bona fide threat in the on-deck circle.

A detailed analysis of Victorino as MVP candidate can be found here:
"Shane Victorino's case for MVP"

Upcoming post:

"On The Road With The Phils, Pt.2," includes photos and stories from the games I attended this month!

Thursday, August 4, 2011

Phils-Giants Preview

The NL East belongs to the Phillies. It may be the 1st week in August, but a 5th consecutive division title is already theirs. That reality must fall heavy on the Braves' ears. They have the 2nd-best NL record and would be leading every other division in baseball, except 1, if they weren't paired in the East with the Phils. Instead, they're 8 games out and dropping fast.

Still, hard to feel sorry for the Braves, since they had their turn with a streak of division titles from 1991 to 2005 (3 in the West and 11 in the East), interrupted only by '94's strike-shortened season.

The Phils have won 6-straight games, scoring 6.7 runs per game in that span. Acquired All-Star Hunter Pence has been on the team for the last 5 games, which means they're undefeated with him.

His presence has made a huge impact on the lineup. While he is merely 6-for-21 with a .286 average out of the 5-slot (a dip from his .307 season average), 4-slot clean-up man Ryan Howard is 9 for 22 (.409) with 4 HR and 9 RBIs in those 5 games (an astronomically rise in his season stats).

The Phils are 3-and-9 in their last 12 games in S.F. The Giants, 33-20 at home, are counting on home-field advantage, because they are struggling, having just lost 5-straight and 8-of-13.

Carlos Beltran is 8-for-30 (.267) with his new team. However, he is heating at 7-for-16 (.438) over his last 4 games. He is 1-for-8 vs. Lee.

This will be a 4-game series, and the Phils-- who recently lost 2-of-3 against the Giants in Philly, will have more than 1 of their aces in the rotation vs. S.F. this time around.

Game 1, Thursday, 10:15 PM ET

PHI: Lee (10-7, 3.14 ERA, 159 S.O., 32 BB)
@
SF: Bumgarner (6-10, 3.80 ERA, 115 S.O., 30 BB)

Lee went 0-2 with a 6.94 ERA vs. the Giants as a Ranger in the World Series last season, but is 3-0 with a 1.13 ERA in the regular season vs. them, lifetime.

Meanwhile, Bumgarner has to be the unluckiest guy in baseball. His solid numbers, coupled with his team's 62-49 record, shouldn't result in his 10 losses in 16 decisions. Maybe, for the Phils sake, his bad luck will continue.

The key to beating the Bum(garner) is scoring early. He has surrendered 18 1st-inning runs this year.

Game 2, Friday, 10:15 PM ET

PHI: Worley (7-1, 2.33 ERA)
@
SF:
Sanchez (4-5, 3.81 ERA)

When Worley pitches, the Phillies generally win. The team is 12-2 when he appears on the mound this season, including 8-straight wins. They even beat Pittsburgh during Worley's last start, despite his surrendering 4 runs in 6 innings.

Game 3, Saturday, 4:10 PM ET

PHI: Hamels (12-6, 2.62 ERA)
@
SF:
Cain (9-7, 3.10 ERA)

Cain feasts on the Phils. 'Big Daddy' shut them out with a 2-hit postseason gem nail-in-the-coffin during the '10 NLCS. What has he done against them lately? An encore, shutting them out on July 27th in Philly.

Hamels, meanwhile, is the opposite. He's winless against the Giants in his last 4 games against them and hasn't beaten them since '09.

Game 4, Sunday, 4:05 PM ET

PHI: Oswalt (4-6, 3.79 ERA)
@
SF: Lincecum (9-9, 2.77 ERA)

Roy Oswalt, remember him? He used to be a great pitcher with the Astros. Now, he is plagued by constant back problems. The Phils acquired him last year as the poor man's Cliff Lee, when they were in the midst of regret for having traded the real thing for no apparent reason, other than the opportunity to spend even more minor league talent and a jillion dollars getting him back.

Oswalt will be making his 1st start since June 23rd, when he surrendered 4 runs in 2 innings in St. Louis.

Meanwhile, Lincecum will be making his 1st start against the Phils since shutting them out on July 28th.

Lincecum will be thrilled to see the Phils, as will San Fransisco fans, who pulled off an upset against them in '10, which propelled them to a World Series win. The Giants are hoping to regain momentum behind Beltran and against these Phils, who they've grown fond of beating. The Phils are looking to highlight their marvelous season (baseball's best record, an incomparable 71-39) by overcoming their nemesis, the defending NL champ Giants, who they will not face again (after these 4 games), this regular season. Then, it's the 'second season', the postseason, where everything just has to go better than it did last year... right?

Perhaps these 4 games against S.F. will provide the true answer.

Thursday, July 28, 2011

Giants Prevail at C.B. Corral

Like a Western, the California baseball gang from the North, with their long hair and hairy faces, rode to town for high noon at Citizen Bank and won 2 out of 3 duels behind gunslingers Lincecum, Cain and Wilson, who have had the Phils' number since the two last squared off in these parts, partner.

The Phils were left looking like the same team whose season ended in October very much like their series did Thursday night: losing because of an inability to convert runs against a stellar S.F. Giants pitching staff.

Jimmy Rollins went 1-for-12 with 0 runs scored in the mid-week series, calling to mind his ineptitude of October '10, which was highlighted by an 0-for-4 3 S.O. NLCS Game 1 against Lincecum and Wilson on 10/16/10. Rollins final S.O. ended the game (pictured below) vs. Wilson and inspired a new plateau of verbal poetry from the mouth of ever-eloquent Phillies manager Charlie Manuel:

“I want Jimmy Rollins to hit, of course. I mean, you know, I’m very concerned about him hitting. I want him to hit. But I also think that we have to get him hitting, too. We need to try to get him hitting.”

[Picture, left: 'Oh don't forsake me, oh my Jimmy Rollins...']

On Wednesday, Cole Hamels went 7 2/3, S.O. 6 and walked just 1 -- yet lost, 2-1, because his team failed to give him run support.

The answer seemed to be staring the Phils in the face, literally, except he was wearing the wrong uniform: Carlos Beltran.

Beltran, freshly acquired from the Mets, looked pretty bad striking out against Kyle Kendrick to start the 4th and 6th innings, but he may yet be the White Knight who guides the Giants to their 2nd straight World Series appearance. Why not? The Phils did it in '08 & '09.

This season? The Phils are now an uninspiring 16-19 against teams with a winning record.

At the end of the Giants' series win over Philadelphia, a repeat of their NLCS triumph over the Fightin', Giants manager Bruce Bochy looked like a strategic genius. While there is no way he could have had control over Tim Lincecum's flu or the team's acquisition of outfielder Carlos Beltran this week, each event seemed to come together at the exact right time for maximum impact.

Much has been made, of course, of Bochy's use of both Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee while he managed them for the NL in the All-Star Game on July 12th.

Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee had been outspoken about his upset. Whether it was intentional or not, Bochy forced both Halladay and Lee out of the '10 NLCS rematch that the Giants won Thursday, 2-games-to-1.

In the absence of the dynamic duo, Philly pitching was imperfect, but should have been enough.

Tuesday, Worley was dominant in game 1, which the Phils won 7-2.

Wednesday, Hamels failed to beat the Giants and is now winless against them in his last 4 games. (He hasn't beaten the Giants since '09).

Thursday, Kendrick pitched very well, but then an errant thrown by Michael Martinez opened the door for what led to a poor line, somewhat unfairly to Kendrick, who had terrific movement on his fastball and who was dominant through several stretches of the game.

Ultimately, it was the Phils' errant hitting that cost them the series.

The summary of events seemed to fuel inject S.F. past the Phils in the all-important 2nd-half of the season category: momentum.

Thanks to Bochy's All-Star managerial moves, Halladay and Lee were knocked out. Thanks to Lincecum's flu, he was in line to finish off the series with a game 3 win, since he'd missed his regular slot game 1 start. Thanks to roster moves by front office management, Beltran became a Giant during the series with the Phils, so that his 1st game as a Giant was the deciding game between the 2 NL powerhouse teams, who mirror each other in many key ways.

Both are pitching teams. Both approached the July 31st trade deadline seeking a power-hitting right-hander. Both teams pursued Carlos Beltran. The Giants got him. They also got the series win.

Their ace finished it off on the mound, while the Phils' #1 and #2 pitchers sat idle and the defending NL and World Series champion Giants rode off into the sunset with this year's top free agent prize, Carlos Beltran, wearing their World Series rings and leaving a disappointed sold-out Philly crowd in the dust. Saddle up and back to California.

Closer Brian Wilson continued his dominance of the Phils with a 2 S.O. 9th for his 33rd MLB-leading save, and the Giants seemed to say, 'We still got your number, chumps.'

The Phils will have a chance to get it back during a 4-game series in S.F. on August 4th-7th.

Who knows? Maybe they'll have their own right-handed trade deadline acquisition in outfield by then. It's likely the price will be steep, regardless of who remains available.

Asked about that prospect, baseball's best pitcher, the Phils' Roy Halladay, said: "Knowing I'm only here for a certain amount of years, yeah, I'd sell the farm."

Tuesday, July 26, 2011

Phils-Giants: It's ON!

The Phils begin a grudge match with the Giants today in Philadelphia.

The Phillies have everything to prove against the defending World Champions. It was the Giants who rained on the Phils parade last year, crushing the Phils' hopes for a 'threepeat' World Series trip. Instead, they got bounced by the Giants in 6 games and went home. The Phils averaged 3.17 runs per game in that series, then swapped Jayson Werth for Cliff Lee (via free agency) during the ensuing winter. Both teams are back in 1st place, where they finished 2010:

Giants: 59-43, 1st in NL West, have won 7-of-10
at Phillies 64-37, 1st in NL East, have won 7-of-10

Game 1, Tuesday 7:05 pm (EST)

[Tim Lincecum* (8-8, 2.90 ERA, 146 S.O.)

*This just in: Lincecum has been scratched from his Tuesday start due to the flu.]

Barry Zito (3-2, 4.78 ERA) - *game-day replacement vs. Vance Worley (6-1, 2.02 ERA)

Lincecum recorded 16 S.O. in 14 innings and went 2-1 vs. the Phils during the '10 NLCS.

Game 2, Wednesday 7:00 pm (EST)

??? vs.
Cole Hamels (12-5, 2.62 ERA)

Hamels had a winless '10 postseason vs. the Giants. You better believe he's hungry.

[Photo. below: Hamels in Schmidt-era retro. Phils uniform on 7/22/11.]

Game 3, Thursday 7:05 pm (EST)

Matt Cain (8-6, 3.06 ERA) vs. Kyle Kendrick (5-4, 3.45 ERA)

On 10.19.10, 'Big Daddy' Cain shut the Phillies out with a 2-hit postseason gem, 3-0, which dropped the Phils in a 2-games-to-1 hole they never emerged from. The underdog Giants advanced to the World Series 4 days later, then won their 1st Championship in 52 years.

2 'X' factors to the series:

1) The Phils are 34-11 when Rollins scores a run. He must utilize his new-found skill of getting on base (you'd think, after a jillion years at leadoff, he'd have developed a 'good eye' a little sooner). Rollins is hitting .321 with a .512 SLG % in July, but is only 1-for-his-last-16. He needs to snap out of it for Philly to score against the taut Giants' pitching.

2) Giants' closer Brian 'Big Beard' Wilson threw 5 shutout innings over 4 games against the Phils during the '10 NLCS. This season, he has been wildly uneven (6.97 April ERA, 0.66 in May, 3.72 in July). It would be a big deal if the Phils could touch him up this time around. Should he appear and dominate them, again, that could be a ghost that haunts them this postseason. Think Jonathan Broxton in reverse.

Wilson on what's in his beard: "There's garden gnomes cutting down trees and apparently there's an Irish jig lady dancing. I haven't met her yet."

Giants manager Bruce Bochy determined the Phils starting rotation for this series when he was managing the NL in the All-Star game. Whether it was intentional or not is a matter of opinion. Bochy used Halladay and Lee in the 1st 4 innings of the game. Halladay and Lee combined for 3 perfect innings to initiate the NL win, securing NL home-field advantage for the World Series.

However, in using the duo for extended stints (pitchers traditionally appear for 1 All-Star inning, the Phils' starters combined for 4), Bochy also insured his team wouldn't face them in this series. In fact, the Giants aren't scheduled to face Halladay at all this regular season in any of the 7 upcoming games between the 2 teams.

Asked what he thought of the way Halladay and Lee were used by Bochy, Phillies pitching coach Rich Dubee said, “I’ve got my opinions." Asked what they were, Dubee said, “I’m not going to tell you.”

The Giants currently lead all of baseball in pitching. They are 1st in: ERA (3.08), Quality Starts (67), Batting Average Against (.229) and 2nd in WHIP (1.21).

The Phils are 2nd in: ERA (3.13) and Quality Starts (66), 5th in BAA (.242) and 1st in WHIP (1.18).

Both the Phils and the Giants have feasted on the NL West:

S.F. is 25-14 against division opponents this year, while the Phils are a NL-best 73-40 vs. the NL West since '08.

The 2 teams will meet for 4 games in S.F. on August 4th-7th.

Wednesday, July 20, 2011

J-Rolling and Beltran Hunting

Perhaps you've heard that the Phils are 33-11 this year when Jimmy Rollins scores a run. Well, now they're 1-0 when he hits 2 HRs in a game. Rollins also doubled in collecting his 10th multi-hit game since 6/26, when he went 4-for-4 vs. Oakland, the city of his birth. He is hitting .365 in July, which has launched his average from .251 on July 1 to .277 today.

Rollins, Gold Glove SS ('07-'09), has been as good as ever this year in the field with 5 errors and a .987 fielding %.

However, his recent offensive explosion has come out of nowhere, and it couldn't have come at a better time for an offense that has raised doubts for the team's manager, as well as baseball experts and fans.

Wednesday was only the 2nd time in the switch-hitting Rollins' career that he has homered from both sides of the plate in the same game (8/12/06 vs. Reds was the other).

If Rollins can stay hot, the Phils will have a table-setter extraordinaire, who has already matched his '08 title-year HR production and whose S.O.-walk ratio is as good as it has ever been at 38-38.

11 days remain before the trade deadline, and it appears that the Mets' RF Carlos Beltran will be traded.

You heard of the possibility here first: "Beltran in Phils' outfield? Hmm..." [7/14/11: "People's Choice Champs"].

Both the Phillies and Red Sox are the most likely landing places, with the Mets willing to eat most of the $6 million he's owed this year if they can get top prospects in return. Whose prospects do they prize the most? All this will be decided by July 31. Beltran is 34 and will be a free agent at the end of the season.

He has been injury plagued each of the last 2 seasons, which led to his dreadful numbers in '10: .255 with 7 HR in 64 games. The fact that he has vastly underachieved as a high-paid Met for 6 of the last 7 seasons doesn't bode well. However, he is hitting .291 with 14 HR and 59 RBI this year and .372 with a .500 OBP this month. Is he hot to stay (at least until he gets his next big contract) or on the verge of yet another injury?

More pertinently: should the Phils get him? Impossible to know, until we see who they would part with. However, the Phils have certainly landed on their feet in trades where they surrendered significant prospects in the last few years, so there's reason to believe they know what they're doing. On the other hand, they've shied away from rent-a-player trades, which this would absolutely be.

Still, it's a mesmerizing prospect. All-Star Carlos Beltran in RF and batting 5th for the Phils. That would create vital insurance that Ryan Howard would get pitched to in the postseason. Howard, presently leading the NL with 74 RBI, is expected to see numerous intentional walks and pitch-arounds when RBI opportunities arise during the playoffs. Acquiring Beltran could change that equation overnight.

Meanwhile, Vance Worley, who scouts around the league continue to shrug off as a one-hit-wonder, just continues to do his thing. Wednesday, Worley allowed 1 run on 4 hits over 8 strong. He struck out 7, while walking just 2.

Look at it this way, all you Worley-doubting scouts:

Ryan Vogelsong, who began the season in the minors and hadn't pitched in the big leagues since '06, was selected to the '11 All-Star game (albeit by his manager).

Vogelsong is 7-1 (#1 win % in NL) with a 2.02 ERA (#1 in NL) in 98 innings. Opponents are hitting .229 against him and his WHIP is 1.19.

Meanwhile, Worley, who skipped AAA entirely en route to his MLB debut, has steadily built uncannily identical numbers:

He is 6-1 with a 2.02 ERA. Opponents are batting .212 against him and his WHIP is 1.19.

Because he has only thrown in 63 innings, he can't yet qualify for the league lead in any pitching category. He can, however, compete for Rookie-of-the-Year, and he very much is.

Right now, it's between him and Braves' wunderkind closer Craig Kimbrel.

Worley, like Kimbrel, is 23. Vogelsong is 33. Worley doubters beware.

Notably, the Phils have made some trade blunders the last couple of years, even if winning has a way of hiding blemishes. The biggest, of course, was trading away Cliff Lee, who was a playoff stud for them in '09, before returning to the World Series for the Rangers in '10, after the Phils had traded him. Ruben Amaro, Jr. famously admitted (figuratively) 'My bad' by re-acquiring Lee this past off-season, rectifying his mistake in the fans' and Lee's eyes.

A lesser known Phils' roster move mistake, however, is the fact that they keenly signed Vogelsong as a free agent during the '09-'10 off-season, only to release him on 7/15/10. A year later, he's an all-star with the World Champion Giants.

Thursday, July 14, 2011

People's Choice Champs

While the majority of baseball fans presently predict that the Phillies will win the '11 World Series [see polls here], they'll still need to play the final 71 games + potential postseason to claim the title.

First on the agenda is a pit stop in N.Y. vs. the Mets. On the face of it, it should be the Phillies for whom these games matter. After all, while the Mets are winners of 11 of 17 games, they can hardly be having delusions of grandeur or postseason hopes: 11 games back with the 2nd best team in the NL (& their division) 7 1/2 games ahead for the Wild Card.

Mets General Manager Sandy Alderson, on trading closer K-Rod this week: "From my standpoint, this certainly does not signify a change in direction from our continuing attempt to win games this season."

Translation: 'If we don't sweep the Phillies this weekend, high-priced All-Stars Carlos Beltran and Jose Reyes (free-agents this offseason) are next.'

Beltran in Phils' outfield? Hmm...

Seriously, though, this could be an interesting series for the Phils, who will then battle their own potential boredom with 7 days against NL dregs Chicago & S.D. (combined W-L: 77-107), before meeting S.F. for a tantalizing '10 NLCS re-match July 26-28 in Philly and August 4-7 in S.F.

Phils (57-34, 1st place) at Mets 46-45, 3rd place), 3-game series begins Friday:

Game 1
Friday, July 15th, 7:10pm EST

Vance Worley (4-1, 2.20 ERA)
@ R.A. Dickey (4-7, 3.61 ERA; 2.25 ERA vs. Phils '08-present)

Worley must be thinking, 'Where should I go this offseason with all the frequent flyer miles I've earned flying back and forth to AAA, every week?'

Meanwhile, opposing teams must think: 'You're kidding me! You mean, I escaped the '4 Aces' only to have to hit a rookie phenom? Didn't the Pitching Fairy visit any other teams?!'

On June 29th, in one of the more amusing Phils side-stories this season, Worley was denied an autograph by the Red Sox's Dustin Pedroia before a competition between the 2.

Worley wanted Pedroia's autograph because they are both from Sacramento, CA. Also, a couple years ago, the now 23 year-old Worley snuck away from the Cape Cod League to see Pedroia's Red Sox play at Fenway Park.

"He wouldn't give me [an autograph]," Worley said. "Then I threw one up and in on him, so I probably won't get it now."

Worley stunned the Red Sox's MLB-best offense that night by mastering them with a 7-inning gem, allowing only 1 run.

"He had great mound presence, and we were all very impressed," Pedroia said. "It's really good for a kid that young to have a presence like that on the mound. He's going to be a good one."

Worley followed that win with a shutout of Florida on July 4th to close the 1st half of the season. After the game, he was rewarded by being demoted to the minor leagues. However, the Phils simultaneously assured that it was merely a roster move and that Worley had secured the 4-spot in the rotation.

Game 2
Saturday, July 16th, 4:10pm EST:

Cole Hamels (11-4, 2.32 ERA; 1.31 June ERA, 1.69 ERA in July)
@ Jonathan Niese (8-7, 3.88 ERA; 5.40 July ERA, already 1-2 vs. Phils in '11)

Hamels, who is a leading Cy Young candidate this year, wanted to pitch in the All-Star Game:

"I'd love to pitch," Hamels said before the game. "Tuesday is a bullpen day. It's usually the day I feel the best. It's one of those things where people who don't play the game make the rules. I don't think they understand the way we work out and how we train. When you come, you want to play. Most of us are pretty smart; we're not going to injure ourselves in an All-Star Game. And it's only 1 inning. That's the thing. It's not like I'm going out to throw 60 pitches. As strenuous as it is, we're built to throw 100s and 25 is nothing."

"He’s way more mature," manager Charlie Manuel said of Hamels, who has been pitching as well as anyone in baseball over the past 12 months. "He’s been around guys like Jamie Moyer and Halladay and Lee and Roy Oswalt. He’s got a better work ethic now. He’s stronger. He’s bigger than he used to be. You don’t see him with his shirt off, but he’s developing into a man."

Game 3
Sunday, July 17th, 1:10pm EST:

Cliff Lee (9-6, 2.82 ERA; 4.11 July ERA)
@ Mike Pelfrey (5-8, 4.55 ERA; 7.71 ERA vs. Phils in 3 games this year-- yikes!)

Lee missed his location with a fastball over the plate to the Red Sox's Gonzalez, surrendered the only AL run in Tuesday's All-Star Game. However, the NL won 5-1 and gained homefield advantage for the World Series.

"That's huge," Lee said. "Whenever you play more games at home, that's big. It's a difference maker anytime you get homefield advantage in the World Series."

Pelfrey, getting crushed by Phils this year (7.71 ERA), may want to sit this one out. Look for bullpen help, i.e., K-Rod-- oops, he's been traded to the Brewers.

The Phils, reportedly shopping for a right-handed bat and tied to a possible trade for All-Star closer Heath Bell, will need to show more offensive consistency and maintain focus, despite overmatching most of their opponents for the remainder of the season. If they can do that, the course should be steady.

2 stealthy opponents on their schedule should help keep them motivated: S.F. and Atlanta, both of whom are formidable NL contenders within striking distance of the Phils' superlative record. The Phils will play them each twice during the remaining 10 weeks of the season.