Brown Gives Phils Hope

Brown rounds bases for 2nd time 5/29.

Domonic Brown has finally, officially arrived.  It was well-know that Spring Training brought the seeming coming out of long lauded prospect.  Now the bell has been answered.  Tonight at Citizens Bank it rang four times, twice for Domonic Brown.

On May 26th, Brown was named NL Player of the Week.  In the 3 days since, he has hit 4 Home Runs.

Last week, Brown hit .348 (8 for 23) with two doubles, a triple, two homers and seven RBIs in six games.  In the last 3 games, he has hit .333 (4 for 12) with 4 HR and 5 RBI in 3 games.

Brown looks like the player we were all told he would be, should be, could be.  After years of short, disappointing trips to the Majors, then back down again for a dismal stretch in the minors, Brown is making good on his former #1 prospect status and all those reports that said he was the Golden One.

Now, he looks like a cleanup hitter-- or at least a #5 hitter.  In the last 5 games, Ryan Howard has struck out an improbable 12 times in 18 at-bats.  Amidst yet another injury, Howard is fading, while Brown is swelling.  Brown has doubled Howard's HR production and is showing a veteran's poise at the plate while the veteran Howard demonstrates desperation.  Brown has 35 S.O. to 9 walks.  Howard? 60 S.O. to 9 walks. It is clearly time Brown is given a regular higher slot in the order.

"He'll let me know when it's time for him to move," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said before Tuesday's game. "He's headed that way. Really, I mean that. I've developed a lot of players through the Minor Leagues and big leagues. I've had some of the best players who have ever been in baseball."

Brown-Kratz went back-to-back vs. Nationals 5/25.

"In my head, I always feel like I'm up to the task of being in the top of the order," Brown said. "That's Charlie's decision, and whenever he thinks I'm ready for it, I'll move up. Right now I'm fine where I'm at."

Brown credits a shorter, quicker swing for much of his success.  "Being around guys with short swings," he said. "You can definitely see the difference with guys like Jimmy, Utley, those guys. With that being said, I can get on the plate like those guys. Me being [6-foot-5], longer arms, I've got to be short to the baseball. Just going out, watching a lot of film and being around coaches, it's a little bit of everything."  Brown is now 2nd in the NL in HR (1 behind Atlanta's Justin Upton) and 12th in RBI.

Catcher Erik Kratz has hit 3 HR in his last 4 games and is batting .306 in May.  Brown and Kratz, who went back-to-back in the 2nd on 5/25 vs. Washington, did it again against Boston in the 4th on Wednesday.

With their win Wednesday and the Braves and Nationals' losses, the Fightin' is now 5 1/2 out of First and just a game out of 2nd.  However, there is a key statistic which is troubling:  Atlanta has outscored their opponents by 42 runs, while the Phils have been outscored by 40.   That widens the gap between First Place and, well, wherever the teams that miss the playoffs go.

The Phils are 13th out of 15 NL teams in batting and 12th in pitching.  When Jonathan Pettibone and Cliff Lee aren't pitching the team is 17-25.  Thanks to Lee (6-2, team 5-0 since May 6th when he takes the mound) and Pettibone (3-0, team 6-1 behind his starts) the Phils are within a game of .500.  The last time the Phils were at .500 was all the way back on April 14th, when they were 6-6.

Starting Pitcher Jonathan Pettibone is undefeated.

The Phils could reach .500 again Thursday in Philadelphia, while winning the series vs. Boston with a victory.  Good Luck Charm Pettibone will be on the mound.  Domonic Brown will be at the plate.

7:05 PM ET

Red Sox

(32-22, 15-10 away)

Phillies

(26-27, 12-12 home)

BOS:   Morales (0-0, 0.00 ERA)

PHI:   Pettibone (3-0, 3.21 ERA)

 

NL East Up For Grabs, Phils Add Pitcher

The NL East appeared to be one of the strongest divisions in baseball this year.  Instead, it's turned out to be "Survival of the Least Bad."  After a 12-1 start, the Braves have gone 10-17, dropping like bricks and falling to near .500 (22-18), which is what they do in recent years, but usually in September.  Meanwhile, Washington has failed to step into control in the division, puttering about at around .500 (22-19) from the start with Stephen Strasburg just 2-5.

So where does that leave the Phils (19-22)?  A shell of the team they hoped to be, but very much in contention for the division crown, a mere winning streak of, say, 8-out-of-10 from leading the pitiful pack.

The Phillies are 12-4 when Pettibone, Kyle Kendrick or John Lannan start. They're 7-17 in games started by the $64.5 million trio of Hamels, Roy Halladay and Cliff Lee.

Defeat has marked Hamels' starts this year.

Cole Hamels, the Phils 7-year, $144-million star is 1-6.  Worse, the team is 1-8 in his starts. 

Hamels' 4.61 ERA ranks 79th out of 110.  He is issuing 1.6 more walks per 9 innings, while striking out 1.5 less per 9.  His changeup has been fine (batters vs.: .077 average, no HR); however, hitters have been pounding his fastball: 6 of his 9 HR-allowed have come off the pitch compared to 10 in '12.

There is every reason to believe Hamels will come around, as there is no indication he has "lost his stuff" or is plagued by any ill-health.  In fact, entering Wednesday's blowout loss to Cleveland, Hamels was lately the victim of poor run support, having recorded 6-straight quality starts with a 2.41 ERA.

Nonetheless, his troubling numbers and lack of Ace consistency is just one major piece that has not fallen into place for the Phils this season. The regular season is 1/4 done.  Carlos Ruiz, returning All-Star catcher, isn't leading the team.  Rather, after a career year in '12 in Ave. (.325), HR (16) and RBI (68) in just 114 games, Chooch has 0 HR and only 1 RBI with a .234 Ave. through 14 GP, hardly quieting concerns after serving a PED suspension.

Desperation acquisition Delmon Young (OF) has hit 1 HR, Ryan Howard is on-pace to hit just 24 this year (although he traditionally starts slow) and Roy Halladay is out indefinitely with shoulder surgery.

This was definitely not how Amaro & co. imagined it this past winter.

There's no way they expected to be pinning summer rotation hopes on Right-hander Carlos Zambrano, who just agreed to a minor league contract with the Phils.

 

Zambrano 3/9/13 World Baseball Classic

Zambrano will report this week to Clearwater, Fla., for extended spring training. The three-time All-Star hasn't pitched in the majors since last September with Miami.

Zambrano, 31, is 132-91 with a 3.66 ERA in 12 seasons, including 11 with the Chicago Cubs, averaging 14 wins with a 3.43 ERA from 2003-10. He was 16-17 with a 4.66 ERA in the past two seasons.

"We're just looking to add some starting pitching depth and some experience," said Phillies assistant general manager Scott Proefrock. "No promises were made. It's low-risk and hopefully high-reward."  The Phillies signed Zambrano with ample knowledge of his history of combustibility and controversial incidents with the Cubs.  Sounds exactly like the Delmon Young signing, which has yet to pan out.

Zambrano feuded with teammates, management and umpires in a number of high-profiles blowups.

Chicago placed Zambrano on the disqualified list with no pay and no part in team activities for 30 days in 2011. He then told team personnel he might retire.

Zambrano was placed on the restricted list for six weeks and sent to anger management in 2010 after a verbal altercation with then-teammate Derrek Lee.

In 2009, he was suspended following a tirade against an umpire in which he threw a baseball into the outfield and slammed his glove against the dugout fence.

The Phils will be tested starting Friday.  They will play 10 of their next 13 games against top-tier teams: Cincinnati,Washington and Boston (featuring Shane Victorino's return to Philly, May 29th-30th.)     

The Phils are 13th out of 15 NL teams in pitching.  They are 12th out of 15 in offense.  They have not been successful this season.  Aside from individual efforts, i.e., Chase Utley, Michael Young and Kyle Kendrick, this team has failed.  Still, they're not out of it, and that means everything.

If they can come out of the next 13 winning more than losing, they can hang on.  If they crumble under this challenge, well, its only a matter of time until someone makes a push forward in the division.  If the Phils are going to be that team, they have an opportunity to show their life and punch now against some formidable opponents.

7:05 PM ET, Friday, May 17, 2013

Citizens Bank Park, Philadelphia, Pennsylvania

Reds (25-16, 9-10 away) Cingrani (2-0, 2.89 ERA)
at
Phillies (19-22, 9-11 home) Lee (4-2, 2.86 ERA)

Phils Make It Official

 

The Phils set an infamous mark atop the most losses in professional
sports history in '07, then won the World Series in '08.

A baseball season can be long and uniquely discombobulating.  There are times a team can appear to be floating in space like a disconnected satellite.  Often, it is deceptively unclear where a team truly stands.  Sure, there are the Standings and the Stats, which in baseball and for its analysts are always King.

However, neither tells the tale of a team's potential to move, suddenly, either up or down.  At any moment, there can be a massive slump that leads to a  great fall, like Humpty when he dumped or an unforeseeable 2nd-half climb to Wild Card and then Playoff glory, as has been the case in recent years with teams like S.F., who the Phils play tonight.

Sometimes the not knowing how good or how bad you actually are can feel like navigating on the ocean in a storm without a compass.  You can focus on the square inch of sea before you, but hopelessness and despair can seep in like fog and lead you in circles till you run out of steam.

The '64 Phils are considered the worst collapse ever.

That's the first of two reasons it was comforting when the Phillies dropped 2 at home to the Miami Marlins.  When you look square in the face of an 8-22 team, the worst team in all of baseball and drop 2-straight AT HOME to that team, you have OFFICIALLY HIT ROCK BOTTOM.  You know just where you stand.

The second reason for comfort is the fact that Phillies fans know losing.  It is second nature to our team, a team that has defined losing like no other franchise in organized sports history.



Last summer, the Phils resumed a familiar role.



All of the ups and downs of last season, the offensive woes and power outtages which have been increasing steadily the past few years and the disappointing playoff runs that ended abruptly culminated on Sunday in a demoralizing tapestry of defeat.

Saturday, the Phils took the field at Citizens Bank, the same field where we hoisted the World Series trophy 4 years ago.  I was there.  The stands were thumping so loud and so hard with anticipation of each out that the ground was literally shaking.  It was nerve-wracking, impossible, millions of Phillies' fans personal dreams being realized in the most public of ways on the international stage of a World Title.


The fan who wrote this sign in '08 may want it trashed now.



Saturday, the Phils took to that same field and fell flat on their faces.  They struck out 12 times, walked twice and managed only a single hit.  It was baseball's equivalent of a First Round Knockout.  They had their clocks cleaned and looked utterly hapless and hopeless doing it.  It couldn't have been scripted any better by the team's worst enemies, which is to say that it put a smile on the face of Dodgers and Mets fans everywhere.

You could argue, understandably, because the truth does hurt, that 20 year-old Jose Fernandez, who went 7 innings was just too good.  The problem with that theory is twofold: 

1) Fernandez had never won a major league game going into Saturday and had in fact posted the following numbers in his previous 3 starts: 13 IP, 15 hits, 11 runs, 8 BB.  Vs. the Phils Saturday?  7 IP, 1 hit, 0 runs, 1 BB, 9 S.O.  Bottom line?  Fernandez didn't suck down magic Nolan Ryan potion Saturday morning, the Phils were really that inept. 

2) Once Fernandez had left the game, the Phils struck out 3 times and went hit-less in their final 6 outs.  Two of those strikeouts were to closer Steve Cishek, whose ERA coming into the game was 5.25.  (Also not Nolan Ryan.)  Translation: The Phils were lifeless, down and out, out for the count and whatever other sports cliches you want to tag on to a dead duck.  Their 3-4-5 hitters (Utley-Howard-D.Young) posted a combined for 0-for-10 with SEVEN strikeouts!  Hard to believe.

Sunday, they had a chance at redemption.  They had Roy Halladay, their two-time Cy Young winning ace on the mound.  Halladay promptly surrendered 9 earned runs and 4 walks in just 2 1/3 innings.  Halladay was subsequently placed on the DL.  While it would be comforting to blame his drastic and staggering failure and in turn the team's on his ailing and aging body, the truth is of a less settling nature.  The 3 relief pitchers who followed his foray into a blistering and damning dagger-to-the-heart 14-2 loss to the worst team in all of baseball fared just the same as the injured Halladay.

During the remaining 6 2/3 innings, Valdes, Durbin and Horst surrendered 9 hits, 5 runs and 2 HR to a Marlins team that ranks 30th out of 30 MLB teams in runs, batting average and slugging percentage (they are 29th in on base percentage).  If only the Marlins could play every game against the Phils.  The 4 Phillies pitchers left the game with ERAs of 8.65, 7.00, 6.75 and 6.59.  This from a team that was recently proud leaders in pitching.  Today, the Phillies, who are near the bottom in every offensive category (24th in runs, 25th in batting average and 27th in both slugging percentage and on base percentage), are startlingly 26th in baseball with a 4.51 team ERA.

In short, they can't hit, they can't pitch, and they're old.


Phils presently promising more sleepless nights.

The Marlins came into Philly as the laughing stock of the professional sports world and left with their heads high on just their SECOND WINNING STREAK of the season.  If they could only play in Citizens Bank Park every night, the Fish might be in First Place.  The Phils had a chance, at home, to reach .500 for the first time since they were 6-6 after beating the Marlins on April 14th.  Instead they fell to 4 games under against a team that dropped 9-of-10 to start the year.

For weeks we heard talk from the team and local media that Ruiz and Delmon Young were riding in on white horses to save the season, much like Utley-Howard were expected to do in 2012.  Utley-Howard nearly did, vindicating front office claims that the product they were putting on the field was quality and competitive.  However, the difference between Utley-Howard and Ruiz-D. Young is that the former have MVP and All-Star honors while the latter are most recently known for their steroid use and hate-crime harassment charges. 

Ruiz and D. Young can't save this team any more than an umbrella can stop an avalanche.

Now, we're hearing that shutting down Doc will pave the road to success for the 2013 Phils.  Somehow, we're supposed to believe that deleting the staff Ace, a future Hall-of-Famer who has won Cy Young in both leagues is a great sign of good things to come.  Pardon me if I'm not buying it.

Now, after going 2-4 against 2 last-place teams, the Phils will spend the next 7 games on the road battling 2 winning teams with playoff potential, S.F. and Arizona.  Then, they will return home to host the Indians, who swept them last week and Cincinnati, another top-tier playoff caliber team.



Are these our final days with Utley?

The road ahead is long and hard.  The Phils, old and weak, appear unprepared.  The next few weeks will determine if the Phils will be buyers or sellers at the trade deadline.  I don't think there's any misreading which one they are today.  In short, this may be the last we see of Lee and Utley.  Who knows who else?  Last season, the team parted ways with high salary outfielders Pence and Victorino, each of whom was beloved by fans and is presently playing for a First Place team.  We were promised big name free agent outfield replacements and got castoff bargain basement buy Delmon Young and in-house perennial disappointment Domonic Brown instead.  Both have upside potential, Brown especially, but each comes with not a hint of capital risk.

Now, it seems apparent that the front office had another plan when they passed on adding big names this off-season.  Perhaps they saw the writing on the wall.  Perhaps they read 2012 as the beginning of the end.  Perhaps they saw that the end of 2013 would bring welcome relief in the end of Utley and Halladay's contracts, feeling that the only place to go from here is youth and rebuilding. 

Utley, for his part, has done as much as anyone could ask.  He has played every game and leads the team in HR and RBI. 

The team is still married to Hamels, Lee and Howard.  Lee would be a prize on the open market, although Howard is unmoveable due to his overblown salary.  He is making $20 million this year and has posted virtually the same HR-RBI production as Domonic Brown, who is making $500,000.  Cole Hamels appears untouchable, since he is the darling of team owner David Montgomery. 



Cliff Lee must show Ace-like consistency.

Cliff Lee has been particularly confounding of late.  After a fantastic start (3 games, 2-0, 1.52 ERA) he has surrendered a whopping 26 hits and 13 runs in 18 innings, while the team has lost all of his last 4 starts.

It's a long season.  There are 132 games remianing, plenty of opportunity for turnaround, both individual and collective.  If the Phillies are going to right this sinking ship, it will have to be first and foremost through their starting pitching.  By the end of 2010, management realised this was no longer a hitting team and retooled to unveil the 4 aces for 2011.  The result?  The best record in team history.  Now, Hamels and Lee will have to combine to fill the shoes of fallen star Ace Halladay.  They can, they've even shown flashes of it in the early going this season.  Meanwhile, the Phils will need contribution from Ruiz (.100), Rollins (.236), Delmon Young (.150) or Revere (.212).  They will need at least 2 of those 4 to find life-- and fast.

Finally, there needs to be a reliable long-term middle reliever.  Perhaps whoever they call up to take Halladay's roster spot (Tyler Cloyd?) will stay on in that role.  Charlie Manuel finally has a bridge to Jonathan Papelbon.  He needs at least one reliable long middle reliever during games where his starter exits early or on days when Aumont, Adams and Bastardo (best served in spot appearances or as set-up men) are spent. 

All of that is a tall order.  Can it happen?  With quality baseball intelligence in the Phils front office, fine tuning is always an option via trade and minor league promotion.  However, remember this: the wick is short on the current incarnation.  Whether we are buyers or sellers in a few short weeks is being determined, nightly, on the field.   

Opportunity is Knocking

Today the Phillies begin a 6-game stretch that could define the first half of their season.  Fresh off their first series sweep of the season against the Mets, the Phils will go to Cleveland, then return home to face Miami.  Those two teams have a combined record of 17-32 for a .347 winning %.

'12 All-Star Ruiz will be back at the plate and behind it.

The Phillies will have '12 All-Star catcher Carlos Ruiz and will likely have '12 ALCS MVP Delmon Young (OF) join the team during this stretch.  They have a rejuvenated Roy Halladay (1.09 WHIP) and a finally up-to-speed with a win under his belt Cole Hamels (1-3, 4.78 ERA) in a rotation that has been led by a dominant Cliff Lee (1.04 WHIP), supported by a strong Kyle Kendrick (rotation leading 2.41 ERA) and boosted lately by fill-in rookie Jonathan Pettibone.

With the starting pitching finally coming around, it's time for the bullpen to shake its shakiness of recent years, which has plagued and continues to plague the team. 

Furthermore, the Phils rank 10th out of 15 NL teams in both runs scored and HR, while they are 3rd in team batting average.  One of the reasons for this puzzling inconsistency is lack of patience at the plate.  When the team parted ways with Jayson Werth, they also initiated a troubling trend.  Werth perennially led the majors in pitches-per-at-bat, which is a key statistic.  It not only tires out pitchers, but enables the hitters to adjust timing and therefore hit the pitcher more easily.  The '13 Phils are 14th of 15 NL and 28th of 30 MLB teams in BB.  That hurts.  It extends the life of opponents' pitchers and puts the team's batters at a rhythm disadvantage.

Nonetheless, 6 1/2 games out of First Place just last week, the Phils are 4 1/2 back now.  Considering their 6-10 start, things could be a lot worse.

This is the time to strike.  The Braves and Nationals, the 2 teams ahead of them in the division, play game 2 of a 4-game series tonight.  The Phils can gain ground on one if not both teams during this stretch.  They will have Chooch and Young join the lineup.  They have upside potential in every way for these match-ups.

The Phils have been losers at home for too long,
and it's not only this guy's fault.

One troubling statistic thus-far this season in the continued trend of losing at home.  In '12, the Phils finished 40-41 at Citizens Bank Park.  In '13, they are 6-8 there and went 3-5 on their latest home-stand.  (Even in '11, when they broke the club record for wins, they won only 2 more games at home than on the road, hardly a home-field advantage).

Obviously, they must change this trend if they are to get back to the postseason.  This disconcerting statistic is supported by what manager Charlie Manuel has defined as the cause for the team's woes: "pressing."  “I think they’re trying,” Manuel said last week. “Maybe a little bit too hard."  The theory being that they are acting from the weight of pressure rather than playing to their ability.  This explanation also serves as a reason for the simultaneous high batting average and low run production.  Their trouble isn't getting hits, it's hitting when they most need to, i.e., with Runners in Scoring Position.

While sweeping the Mets over the weekend, the Phils scored 18 runs on 30 hits in 3 games. Now they must convert that effort into some consistency.  The team's resurgent offensive bounce came after they were shutout 3 times in 8 games last week and Charlie Manuel, who was thrown out of a game, shook up the lineup, splitting Utley and Howard with 3B Michael Young, who is 7th in the NL in hitting with a .352 average.

Sunday it was Ryan Howard again to the pinch hit rescue.  Howard pounded a 2-out, 2-run 7th inning  pinch-hit double to snap a 1-1 tie and put the Phils up for good.  Howard is now 16-for-38, a .421 ave., in his career as a pinch-hitter.  That ranks him #1 in all of MLB among active players with at least 25 pinch-hit AB.

If the Phils can beat Cleveland and Miami, which any decent team should do handily, they could-- and really should-- find themselves over .500 for the first time since they were 6-6 on April 14th.  It all starts now.

Game 1 of 2 in Cleveland is tonight:

PHI:   Roy Halladay (2-2, 5.08 ERA)

vs.

CLE:  Zach McAllister (1-3, 3.52 ERA)

Notes: 

"Roy Halladay is far and away the most important player in the division," one MLB scout said this preseason. "Which guy we see will determine the Phillies' fate."

'12 was wrought with injury and defeat for Halladay, whose 4.49 ERA was his worst in 12 years. His Spring was worse still, then he began '13 by allowing 12 runs in 7 1/3 inning and falling to 0-2.  Hopefully, that was rock bottom.  

"I think coming out of spring training, having short outings, having some poor outings, coming back wanting to prove that I was healthy, my focus wasn't on making pitches," Halladay said.

"My focus was on trying to prove something that necessarily didn't need to be proven."  The two-time Cy Young Award winner has gone 2-0 with a 1.71 ERA over his last 3 starts.

"It's not a boxing match," Halladay said. "It's not strength vs. strength. It's a chess match. It's competition of the mind and execution and being smarter and being more prepared."

Ryan Howard is red-hot after a 4-for-27 start to the season.  He's batting .351 during a 10-game hitting streak and has driven in 10 runs over the last 5 games.

More Than Ever, It's Utley-Howard To The Rescue

The Phillies will begin their season in Atlanta next week on April Fools Day.  Perhaps it's fitting, since they will feature a "Who's that?" outfield, where they recently boasted 3 All-Stars (Ibanez-Victorino-Werth).  This winter, the Phils sidestepped mega-star slugger Josh Hamilton in favor of an underwhelming outfield of Hodge-podge castoffs and unproven minor leaguers: Delmon Young, Laynce Nix, John Mayberry Jr., Ben Revere and Darin Ruf (who was demoted to the minors this week for his abysmal fielding).

The Phils biggest additions of position starters this offseason were CF Revere and 3B Michael Young.  Revere notoriously has hit 0 MLB HR in his 1st 2 pro years and 36 year-old Young, who is in his career twilight, has hit 19 HR in his last 1242 AB; 11 in '11 and 8 in '12.

More than ever, the Phillies are going to rely on Chase Utley and Ryan Howard to power them to victories.  With a projected opening day outfield of Brown, Nix and Revere, who hit a COMBINED 8 HR in '12 and a starting rotation that is now more question marks than Aces, the Phils will need to see higher averages and plenty of pop from their veteran former all-star 2B and 1B.

This '12 comic expressed fan desperation in Utley, Halladay and Howard's absence.

Last year, the Phillies kept pining for the return of Utley and Howard, who were sidelined with injuries until the team was mired in a losing funk, buried deep in the standings.  Return they did, and in an unlikely fashion that seemed to vindicate the front office, the team rose with their presence and their power, eventually reaching striking distance of the playoffs before leveling off to a vanilla 81-81 finish.

Was it a swan song or promise of more good to come?  Monday in Atlanta begins the long climb that will tell the tale.

July 7th, 2012: Utley and Howard breed hope.

Plagued by injuries the last few years, each man has had their most robust preseason in years, appearing healthy and strong.  Combined with a resurgent Domonic Brown (.373, 7 HR, 16 RBI in 27 preseason games), who appears poised to finally fulfill his heavily tauted potential, the Phils #3-5 hitters could, just maybe, be a dynamic trio reminiscent of the glory years when Utley and Howard were followed by the lean and powerful Jayson Werth.  The new trio have notched 18 HR this Spring: Howard (7), Brown (7), Utley (4). 

Utley and Howard hit back-to-back HR on consecutive days, Friday and Saturday of last week (albeit in preseason), something they used to do often, memorably to nail the Rays coffin in the 2008 World Series.  It finished a week where Utley hit 3 HR in 2 games and hit .533 (8-for-15).

"I feel good about it," their manager Charlie Manuel said. "I like where they're at."

Utley hit 31 HR in 2009, the year of the team's most recent World Series appearance.  In his 3 injury shortened seasons since, he hit just 16, 11 and 11.  Ryan Howard's injury truncated 2012 saw him post his usual pace with 14 HR and 56 RBI in 260 AB, which projects to over 30 HR and well over 100 RBI, which he notched each year from '06-'11.  However, a career .271 hitter, Howard batted just .219 in '12.  He will have to do better if the Phils have a chance in '13.

Worley went from #4 with Phils to #1 with Twins.

The decision to trade Vance Worley ('11 #3 in Rookie-Of-The-Year voting and the Twins' opening day starter next week) and Trevor May (the Phils' #1 prospect a year ago) for Revere was no small statement.  Revere is under contract and dirt cheap.  Likewise, Amaro and company signaled a very clear message in undervaluing and bundle year evading Hamilton this winter.  They were saying that, with the Cole Hamels 6-year, $144 million extension inked in July the lone exception, this team will not be bailed out by big money, not any more.

Big dollar players Halladay-Lee-Utley-Howard and company will have to perform at the level they are being paid, at least between next week and the All-star break. It’s 4 months of sink or swim.  If his team is not contending by the All-Star break, it's time to swap out the remaining big names for talented under salary youth and promising prospects to replenish a depleted farm system, just as they did with the Victorino move in July.

If the Phils are playing well and decidedly in contention come July, their may be some crafty maneuvering, ala their Hunter Pence acquisition in July 2011.  A piece or 2 will be added, making good on the promise, now in waiting, which crystallized when the Phils moved fan favorites Victorino and Pence in 1 week this past July.  'Anything less than a huge free agent signing or two would be unacceptable,' the thinking was then, then the Phils spent the winter doing the unthinkable.  Or so it seemed.

The truth is, they got Revere  ($492,500) and Young  ($750,000) to replace Victorino ($9.5 Mill.) and Pence ($10.4 Mill.) predominately because of money and risk.

Amaro is shrewd.  The Phillies are a well run organization, ask anyone in baseball who plays or works front office.  Ask Halladay and Lee who chose to come here or Victorino and Pence who were sorry to leave and singing the club's and fans' praises on the way out the door.

Hamels' is the largest contract in Philadelphia sports history.

Utley, Halladay and Ruiz are entering the final years of their respective contracts.

"Yeah, there are several possible free agents," general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said in February.  "So in some ways, this could be a very pivotal year for us."

Amaro and co. realize this precipice.  If the team soars between April and July, it's time to fine tune and shape for playoff takeoff.  If they stumble or, worse, crumble, then Josh Hamilton wouldn't have saved them, only anchored them further for a deeper free-fall.  That is what the front office is figuring.  If they are out of contention come July, Hamels figures to be the only untouchable, the building block en route to a reboot.

Facial Hair Standoff & The Curious Case of Domonic Brown

Werth sports the "W" for Washington.

When former Phillies outfielder Jayson Werth was asked 10 days ago who the team to beat was in the NL East, his reply was:  "Phillies.  I think everybody is writing them off. They played good in September, when they were healthy. They're not going to roll over, that's for sure."

"Yeah, the Braves got the Upton brothers," Werth added. "But they lost Prado and Chipper."

Well, maybe Guru Werth is trying to make up for his scathing retort to taunting Philly fans who jeered "You deserve it!" when he broke his wrist last season: "I am motivated to get back quickly and see to it personally those people never walk down Broad Street in celebration again," he stated last May.  And his Nationals won the division, ending the Phils streak at 5 Division Titles.  Or maybe he'll finally crack Fox Sports Best All-Time MLB Facial Hair.  In the anals of Phillies history, he faces some stiff (upper lip) competition (see caption below).

Michael Jack Ranks #15 Best All-Time MLB Facial Hair.

Either way, the games themselves will be the arena the Phils will have to use to ascend to relevancy in the division once more.  They will have to prove current consensus, that they are a third-place team, inaccurate.

Mike Schmidt likes what he sees from Ryan Howard this Spring.  Howard, back from injury and reportedly looking healthy is the key to the Phillies offense this year, especially since GM Amaro Jr. settled for minor tweaks this winter.

"We've chatted over the years about hitting," Schmidt recently said while consultant coaching the Phils at Spring training.  "I've always been a Ryan Howard fan, but he's picking my brain a little bit more. He looks good. He's doing some of the things we talk about. I'm only in my second day here, and I'm really excited. I feel like I've made more strides in my temporary coaching role than I ever had to this point."

On how he's trying to help Howard, who batted .173 against lefties last season: "A little more contact. He's still going to strike out. I'm in the top 10 all-time in strikeouts, so I'm pretty comfortable with striking out. But I think he needs to [make more contact], and we were talking about ways where we might get him to be a little less strikeout-prone . . . when you get that nasty lefthander to get him out."

This Spring, Howard has been on fire.  He is hitting .364 (12 for 33) with 6 extra-base hits.
 
Perhaps the key to the Phillies mysteriously unshaped outfield transition is Dominic Brown.  Remember their former All-star studded outfield of Raul Ibanez (LF), Shane Victorino (CF) and Jayson Werth (RF)?  Well this season's starting outfielders are a Full House of question marks and castaways.  The strange story of one-time organization golden boy and trade-untouchable Domonic Brown has taken a new twist this Spring.

Domonic Brown has most often run nowhere for Phils.

Once touted for his tremendous potential (he was No. 4 Baseball America prospect in 2011) and promising combo of speed and power, Brown slipped into irrelevant status for most of last season, buried deep in the minors and undesired trade material.  He played his 1st 2012 game for the Phils on July 31st.  He has 492 plate appearances in his MLB career and so far and has fizzled with a .236 Ave., 12 HR in 433 At-Bats and 5 Stolen Bases to 2 Caught-Stealing.  So much for power and speed.

After hitting .327/.391/.589 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2010, Brown looked like he would be a key to the Phillies' continued run of NL East dominance. Instead, he's been injured at times, hasn't hit when he has played and there have been reports about the Phillies allegedly not being too pleased with his hustle or work ethic.

Brown has never played more than 116 games in any season, despite team efforts his defense remains a liability, his base-stealing has been a bust (17-of-24 in the minors and MLB) and since fracturing his hamate bone at the base of his right wrist in spring training 2011 he hasn't flashed the power he was spotted for early on. Still, he has fewer than 500 plate appearances in the big leagues and is just 25.  So, it remains to be seen what he can do, although it's safe to say that his margin for error has all but vanished.  This will be his make or break season with the Philles organization.

So it's particularly timely that this Spring training Brown has impressed Charlie Manuel, reportedly more than any other player.  The manager has labeled him "Our Spring surprise" and Brown is hitting .400 (12 for 30, 3 for his last 4) with a team-leading 3 home runs.  He is also leading the team in hits, walks and runs scored.  He has emerged as the leading candidate to start the season in right field with off-season acquisition Delmon Young sidelined by injury.

"Domonic Brown has definitely showed a good stroke since the first game," Manuel said. "He's been the consistent guy."

That's good news for the Phils, who invested so little in their outfield (notably letting the big fish slip away in Josh Hamilton) this off-season that only a hope and a prayer can secure them an improved outfield from what they finished with last season (Nate Schierholtz, his .257 Ave. and downside potential kind of sum up the outfield mediocrity they resigned themselves to by the end of '12).

Brown injured his right knee in mid-June when he felt a pop while running after he jammed the knee into the ground near the fence in center field for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Although he missed a couple of weeks with the injury, Brown had to wear a brace to get through the season, and developed pain in his other knee from compensating.

"I don't really think Charlie and those guys knew how badly I was hurting," Brown said.

He insists it was health that held him back before and that this year will be different.  So far he has shown it by getting better drive with his legs at the plate and moving effortlessly in the outfield.

"I'm moving around much better," Brown said. "It feels good. I feel I can steal a base and do whatever I need to do for the team again. I'm out there having fun, making sure I'm having good at-bats and that my approach stays the same."

The Phils approach will need to be the same as its been this Spring if they are to turn back the decreased expectations they earned in 2012. 

Mike Schmidt said from training camp: “I see a hungriness this year that I’ve never seen before.  Obviously in the last four or five years you weren’t looking for guys to be hungry. They were the heirs apparent to the division titles, MVP award. We were the first place MLB Network came to every year. We were on the cover of Sports Illustrated. We were at the top of the game for many years here over the last six or seven. All of a sudden we find ourselves not even being discussed as World Series contenders.”

"Let them talk about the Nationals and Braves," Charlie Manuel said. "If we get overlooked, we can change that. One good streak can change all that. People are always running for the ones winning."

By all reports it has been an active, energetic and successful Phillies camp thusfar with Utley and Howard healthier than the duo has been since their last World Series appearance.  April 1 in Atlanta the Phils will begin a 162-game road to October.  Whether they will play beyond that is up to them.

Phils New RF: Jekyll or Hyde?

Delmon 'Jekyll/Hyde' Young Now Phillies to Babysit.

OF Delmon Young signed a $750,000 contract on Tuesday with the Phillies.  GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is saying that Young will start for him in RF this season.

Last season, the 27-year-old Young hit .267 with 18 HR and 74 RBI in 151 games with Detroit.

Then, he hit .313 with 3 HR and 9 RBIs in 13 postseason games to win American League Championship Series MVP vs. the Yankees.

Dr. Jekyll

Fans of Amaro will see this as low-risk with high potential upside.  Another in a long line of shrewd moves from the agressive GM.  The team has sought a right-handed corner outfielder with power throughout the offseason. Young could fit into the lineup in the No. 5 spot behind Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.  He is inconceivably thrifty (although could earn over $3-million more in incentives) and is a postseason proven, experienced major league hitter.

Early polls reflect support for the move by the majority of Phillies fans.

Mr. Hyde 

Alternatively, Amaro's detractors will see the Young signing as a desperation move, a sign of the times.  Amaro broke the bank on extended contracts with Halladay, Lee, Howard, and Hamels, while shredding the farm system for short-sighted moves, such as the 2 trades for Lee, each costing plenty of arms and legs of young talent. Now, after a rejected 3-year offer to Josh Hamilton, the player Amaro called "the only difference maker" of this offseason, Amaro signs Young-- straight from the junk heap.

Young, coming off surgery, has not played RF for even a single pitch since '07.  He is best fitted for the DH position, as he is a sub-Pat Burrell fielder.  Detractors will say that there is a reason nobody wanted him until this late in the offseason.  He's a headcase who isn't worth the trouble and can't hit right-handed pitching at all (.247 / .279 / .370 against right-handed pitching).

Rookie Ruf: Already Losing Sleep Over Young Acquisition.

Early expert opinion is strongly cautionary and critical of this move, highlighting the roadblock it poses to developing outfielders Darin Ruf and Domonic Brown.

In '10 for Minnesota, Young, a career .284 hitter, posted his best season, hitting .298 with 46 doubles, 21 home runs and 112 RBI.  He finished 10th in the American League MVP voting that year.

However, in April 2012, then Detroit Tigers OF/DH Delmon Young was arrested in NYC and accused of "Pulling a Mel Gibson."

Young was arrested outside of the club's midtown Manhattan hotel after allegedly shoving a man to the ground and making anti-Semitic remarks, police say.

Young was "highly intoxicated," a police source told the New York Post when the altercation occurred at 2:40 a.m outside the Hilton on 6th Avenue. 

The incident wasn't exactly an aberration, either.

As a minor leaguer in 2006, while playing for Class AAA Durham, he was suspended for 50 games by the International League for flinging a bat at an umpire in disgust after a called third strike. A year earlier, he had been suspended for three games for bumping an umpire.

After his arrest in Manhattan last year, Young issued a statement taking responsibility for his actions. “I take this matter very seriously and assure everyone that I will do everything I can to improve myself as a person and player,” the statement said. 

He later told reporters that he planned to meet regularly with Jewish groups in the Detroit area in an effort to repair his image.

“I’m being branded as a racist and a bigot, and that’s not me,” Young said. “I grew up in a very diverse area and I was raised to always respect everyone around me.” 

Amaro, born of a Jewish mother, did his research on the hate crime and who Young, who recently completed community service, is today:  "I talked to the Anti-Defamation League . . . I talked to a rabbi who Delmon has become very close with in Detroit, and his agents - Arn Tellem and Joel Wolfe - are Jewish," Amaro said. "I came away with the feeling that this is not an anti-Semitic person, I can assure you of that. I also can tell you he is a pretty good guy."

Young had a microfracture surgery on his right ankle in November.

"Oh yeah, we're concerned about it, there's no question about it," Amaro said. "But we're hopeful that he can come back . . . this is not an old player. He's been around a lot. But he's got a lot to prove. Getting back and playing in the outfield is one of the things he wants to do. I think he feels a lot more comfortable in rightfield. He was admittedly uncomfortable playing leftfield and he did not play leftfield very well. We're hoping he can get back and play his natural position at a much higher level."

"My motivation is getting to go out, play the field and contribute to a winning team," Young said. "You get to contribute for a team that is more than about stats and collecting paychecks. We have some guys here that, day in and day out, are going to bust their butt. You want to be one of those guys that come in and be reliable."

Time will tell if Amaro really means to play Young every day or merely hopes to ignite some splendid competition for the outfield corner positions come Spring training.