More Than Ever, It's Utley-Howard To The Rescue

The Phillies will begin their season in Atlanta next week on April Fools Day.  Perhaps it's fitting, since they will feature a "Who's that?" outfield, where they recently boasted 3 All-Stars (Ibanez-Victorino-Werth).  This winter, the Phils sidestepped mega-star slugger Josh Hamilton in favor of an underwhelming outfield of Hodge-podge castoffs and unproven minor leaguers: Delmon Young, Laynce Nix, John Mayberry Jr., Ben Revere and Darin Ruf (who was demoted to the minors this week for his abysmal fielding).

The Phils biggest additions of position starters this offseason were CF Revere and 3B Michael Young.  Revere notoriously has hit 0 MLB HR in his 1st 2 pro years and 36 year-old Young, who is in his career twilight, has hit 19 HR in his last 1242 AB; 11 in '11 and 8 in '12.

More than ever, the Phillies are going to rely on Chase Utley and Ryan Howard to power them to victories.  With a projected opening day outfield of Brown, Nix and Revere, who hit a COMBINED 8 HR in '12 and a starting rotation that is now more question marks than Aces, the Phils will need to see higher averages and plenty of pop from their veteran former all-star 2B and 1B.

This '12 comic expressed fan desperation in Utley, Halladay and Howard's absence.

Last year, the Phillies kept pining for the return of Utley and Howard, who were sidelined with injuries until the team was mired in a losing funk, buried deep in the standings.  Return they did, and in an unlikely fashion that seemed to vindicate the front office, the team rose with their presence and their power, eventually reaching striking distance of the playoffs before leveling off to a vanilla 81-81 finish.

Was it a swan song or promise of more good to come?  Monday in Atlanta begins the long climb that will tell the tale.

July 7th, 2012: Utley and Howard breed hope.

Plagued by injuries the last few years, each man has had their most robust preseason in years, appearing healthy and strong.  Combined with a resurgent Domonic Brown (.373, 7 HR, 16 RBI in 27 preseason games), who appears poised to finally fulfill his heavily tauted potential, the Phils #3-5 hitters could, just maybe, be a dynamic trio reminiscent of the glory years when Utley and Howard were followed by the lean and powerful Jayson Werth.  The new trio have notched 18 HR this Spring: Howard (7), Brown (7), Utley (4). 

Utley and Howard hit back-to-back HR on consecutive days, Friday and Saturday of last week (albeit in preseason), something they used to do often, memorably to nail the Rays coffin in the 2008 World Series.  It finished a week where Utley hit 3 HR in 2 games and hit .533 (8-for-15).

"I feel good about it," their manager Charlie Manuel said. "I like where they're at."

Utley hit 31 HR in 2009, the year of the team's most recent World Series appearance.  In his 3 injury shortened seasons since, he hit just 16, 11 and 11.  Ryan Howard's injury truncated 2012 saw him post his usual pace with 14 HR and 56 RBI in 260 AB, which projects to over 30 HR and well over 100 RBI, which he notched each year from '06-'11.  However, a career .271 hitter, Howard batted just .219 in '12.  He will have to do better if the Phils have a chance in '13.

Worley went from #4 with Phils to #1 with Twins.

The decision to trade Vance Worley ('11 #3 in Rookie-Of-The-Year voting and the Twins' opening day starter next week) and Trevor May (the Phils' #1 prospect a year ago) for Revere was no small statement.  Revere is under contract and dirt cheap.  Likewise, Amaro and company signaled a very clear message in undervaluing and bundle year evading Hamilton this winter.  They were saying that, with the Cole Hamels 6-year, $144 million extension inked in July the lone exception, this team will not be bailed out by big money, not any more.

Big dollar players Halladay-Lee-Utley-Howard and company will have to perform at the level they are being paid, at least between next week and the All-star break. It’s 4 months of sink or swim.  If his team is not contending by the All-Star break, it's time to swap out the remaining big names for talented under salary youth and promising prospects to replenish a depleted farm system, just as they did with the Victorino move in July.

If the Phils are playing well and decidedly in contention come July, their may be some crafty maneuvering, ala their Hunter Pence acquisition in July 2011.  A piece or 2 will be added, making good on the promise, now in waiting, which crystallized when the Phils moved fan favorites Victorino and Pence in 1 week this past July.  'Anything less than a huge free agent signing or two would be unacceptable,' the thinking was then, then the Phils spent the winter doing the unthinkable.  Or so it seemed.

The truth is, they got Revere  ($492,500) and Young  ($750,000) to replace Victorino ($9.5 Mill.) and Pence ($10.4 Mill.) predominately because of money and risk.

Amaro is shrewd.  The Phillies are a well run organization, ask anyone in baseball who plays or works front office.  Ask Halladay and Lee who chose to come here or Victorino and Pence who were sorry to leave and singing the club's and fans' praises on the way out the door.

Hamels' is the largest contract in Philadelphia sports history.

Utley, Halladay and Ruiz are entering the final years of their respective contracts.

"Yeah, there are several possible free agents," general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said in February.  "So in some ways, this could be a very pivotal year for us."

Amaro and co. realize this precipice.  If the team soars between April and July, it's time to fine tune and shape for playoff takeoff.  If they stumble or, worse, crumble, then Josh Hamilton wouldn't have saved them, only anchored them further for a deeper free-fall.  That is what the front office is figuring.  If they are out of contention come July, Hamels figures to be the only untouchable, the building block en route to a reboot.

Facial Hair Standoff & The Curious Case of Domonic Brown

Werth sports the "W" for Washington.

When former Phillies outfielder Jayson Werth was asked 10 days ago who the team to beat was in the NL East, his reply was:  "Phillies.  I think everybody is writing them off. They played good in September, when they were healthy. They're not going to roll over, that's for sure."

"Yeah, the Braves got the Upton brothers," Werth added. "But they lost Prado and Chipper."

Well, maybe Guru Werth is trying to make up for his scathing retort to taunting Philly fans who jeered "You deserve it!" when he broke his wrist last season: "I am motivated to get back quickly and see to it personally those people never walk down Broad Street in celebration again," he stated last May.  And his Nationals won the division, ending the Phils streak at 5 Division Titles.  Or maybe he'll finally crack Fox Sports Best All-Time MLB Facial Hair.  In the anals of Phillies history, he faces some stiff (upper lip) competition (see caption below).

Michael Jack Ranks #15 Best All-Time MLB Facial Hair.

Either way, the games themselves will be the arena the Phils will have to use to ascend to relevancy in the division once more.  They will have to prove current consensus, that they are a third-place team, inaccurate.

Mike Schmidt likes what he sees from Ryan Howard this Spring.  Howard, back from injury and reportedly looking healthy is the key to the Phillies offense this year, especially since GM Amaro Jr. settled for minor tweaks this winter.

"We've chatted over the years about hitting," Schmidt recently said while consultant coaching the Phils at Spring training.  "I've always been a Ryan Howard fan, but he's picking my brain a little bit more. He looks good. He's doing some of the things we talk about. I'm only in my second day here, and I'm really excited. I feel like I've made more strides in my temporary coaching role than I ever had to this point."

On how he's trying to help Howard, who batted .173 against lefties last season: "A little more contact. He's still going to strike out. I'm in the top 10 all-time in strikeouts, so I'm pretty comfortable with striking out. But I think he needs to [make more contact], and we were talking about ways where we might get him to be a little less strikeout-prone . . . when you get that nasty lefthander to get him out."

This Spring, Howard has been on fire.  He is hitting .364 (12 for 33) with 6 extra-base hits.
 
Perhaps the key to the Phillies mysteriously unshaped outfield transition is Dominic Brown.  Remember their former All-star studded outfield of Raul Ibanez (LF), Shane Victorino (CF) and Jayson Werth (RF)?  Well this season's starting outfielders are a Full House of question marks and castaways.  The strange story of one-time organization golden boy and trade-untouchable Domonic Brown has taken a new twist this Spring.

Domonic Brown has most often run nowhere for Phils.

Once touted for his tremendous potential (he was No. 4 Baseball America prospect in 2011) and promising combo of speed and power, Brown slipped into irrelevant status for most of last season, buried deep in the minors and undesired trade material.  He played his 1st 2012 game for the Phils on July 31st.  He has 492 plate appearances in his MLB career and so far and has fizzled with a .236 Ave., 12 HR in 433 At-Bats and 5 Stolen Bases to 2 Caught-Stealing.  So much for power and speed.

After hitting .327/.391/.589 between Double-A and Triple-A in 2010, Brown looked like he would be a key to the Phillies' continued run of NL East dominance. Instead, he's been injured at times, hasn't hit when he has played and there have been reports about the Phillies allegedly not being too pleased with his hustle or work ethic.

Brown has never played more than 116 games in any season, despite team efforts his defense remains a liability, his base-stealing has been a bust (17-of-24 in the minors and MLB) and since fracturing his hamate bone at the base of his right wrist in spring training 2011 he hasn't flashed the power he was spotted for early on. Still, he has fewer than 500 plate appearances in the big leagues and is just 25.  So, it remains to be seen what he can do, although it's safe to say that his margin for error has all but vanished.  This will be his make or break season with the Philles organization.

So it's particularly timely that this Spring training Brown has impressed Charlie Manuel, reportedly more than any other player.  The manager has labeled him "Our Spring surprise" and Brown is hitting .400 (12 for 30, 3 for his last 4) with a team-leading 3 home runs.  He is also leading the team in hits, walks and runs scored.  He has emerged as the leading candidate to start the season in right field with off-season acquisition Delmon Young sidelined by injury.

"Domonic Brown has definitely showed a good stroke since the first game," Manuel said. "He's been the consistent guy."

That's good news for the Phils, who invested so little in their outfield (notably letting the big fish slip away in Josh Hamilton) this off-season that only a hope and a prayer can secure them an improved outfield from what they finished with last season (Nate Schierholtz, his .257 Ave. and downside potential kind of sum up the outfield mediocrity they resigned themselves to by the end of '12).

Brown injured his right knee in mid-June when he felt a pop while running after he jammed the knee into the ground near the fence in center field for Triple-A Lehigh Valley. Although he missed a couple of weeks with the injury, Brown had to wear a brace to get through the season, and developed pain in his other knee from compensating.

"I don't really think Charlie and those guys knew how badly I was hurting," Brown said.

He insists it was health that held him back before and that this year will be different.  So far he has shown it by getting better drive with his legs at the plate and moving effortlessly in the outfield.

"I'm moving around much better," Brown said. "It feels good. I feel I can steal a base and do whatever I need to do for the team again. I'm out there having fun, making sure I'm having good at-bats and that my approach stays the same."

The Phils approach will need to be the same as its been this Spring if they are to turn back the decreased expectations they earned in 2012. 

Mike Schmidt said from training camp: “I see a hungriness this year that I’ve never seen before.  Obviously in the last four or five years you weren’t looking for guys to be hungry. They were the heirs apparent to the division titles, MVP award. We were the first place MLB Network came to every year. We were on the cover of Sports Illustrated. We were at the top of the game for many years here over the last six or seven. All of a sudden we find ourselves not even being discussed as World Series contenders.”

"Let them talk about the Nationals and Braves," Charlie Manuel said. "If we get overlooked, we can change that. One good streak can change all that. People are always running for the ones winning."

By all reports it has been an active, energetic and successful Phillies camp thusfar with Utley and Howard healthier than the duo has been since their last World Series appearance.  April 1 in Atlanta the Phils will begin a 162-game road to October.  Whether they will play beyond that is up to them.

Phils New RF: Jekyll or Hyde?

Delmon 'Jekyll/Hyde' Young Now Phillies to Babysit.

OF Delmon Young signed a $750,000 contract on Tuesday with the Phillies.  GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is saying that Young will start for him in RF this season.

Last season, the 27-year-old Young hit .267 with 18 HR and 74 RBI in 151 games with Detroit.

Then, he hit .313 with 3 HR and 9 RBIs in 13 postseason games to win American League Championship Series MVP vs. the Yankees.

Dr. Jekyll

Fans of Amaro will see this as low-risk with high potential upside.  Another in a long line of shrewd moves from the agressive GM.  The team has sought a right-handed corner outfielder with power throughout the offseason. Young could fit into the lineup in the No. 5 spot behind Chase Utley and Ryan Howard.  He is inconceivably thrifty (although could earn over $3-million more in incentives) and is a postseason proven, experienced major league hitter.

Early polls reflect support for the move by the majority of Phillies fans.

Mr. Hyde 

Alternatively, Amaro's detractors will see the Young signing as a desperation move, a sign of the times.  Amaro broke the bank on extended contracts with Halladay, Lee, Howard, and Hamels, while shredding the farm system for short-sighted moves, such as the 2 trades for Lee, each costing plenty of arms and legs of young talent. Now, after a rejected 3-year offer to Josh Hamilton, the player Amaro called "the only difference maker" of this offseason, Amaro signs Young-- straight from the junk heap.

Young, coming off surgery, has not played RF for even a single pitch since '07.  He is best fitted for the DH position, as he is a sub-Pat Burrell fielder.  Detractors will say that there is a reason nobody wanted him until this late in the offseason.  He's a headcase who isn't worth the trouble and can't hit right-handed pitching at all (.247 / .279 / .370 against right-handed pitching).

Rookie Ruf: Already Losing Sleep Over Young Acquisition.

Early expert opinion is strongly cautionary and critical of this move, highlighting the roadblock it poses to developing outfielders Darin Ruf and Domonic Brown.

In '10 for Minnesota, Young, a career .284 hitter, posted his best season, hitting .298 with 46 doubles, 21 home runs and 112 RBI.  He finished 10th in the American League MVP voting that year.

However, in April 2012, then Detroit Tigers OF/DH Delmon Young was arrested in NYC and accused of "Pulling a Mel Gibson."

Young was arrested outside of the club's midtown Manhattan hotel after allegedly shoving a man to the ground and making anti-Semitic remarks, police say.

Young was "highly intoxicated," a police source told the New York Post when the altercation occurred at 2:40 a.m outside the Hilton on 6th Avenue. 

The incident wasn't exactly an aberration, either.

As a minor leaguer in 2006, while playing for Class AAA Durham, he was suspended for 50 games by the International League for flinging a bat at an umpire in disgust after a called third strike. A year earlier, he had been suspended for three games for bumping an umpire.

After his arrest in Manhattan last year, Young issued a statement taking responsibility for his actions. “I take this matter very seriously and assure everyone that I will do everything I can to improve myself as a person and player,” the statement said. 

He later told reporters that he planned to meet regularly with Jewish groups in the Detroit area in an effort to repair his image.

“I’m being branded as a racist and a bigot, and that’s not me,” Young said. “I grew up in a very diverse area and I was raised to always respect everyone around me.” 

Amaro, born of a Jewish mother, did his research on the hate crime and who Young, who recently completed community service, is today:  "I talked to the Anti-Defamation League . . . I talked to a rabbi who Delmon has become very close with in Detroit, and his agents - Arn Tellem and Joel Wolfe - are Jewish," Amaro said. "I came away with the feeling that this is not an anti-Semitic person, I can assure you of that. I also can tell you he is a pretty good guy."

Young had a microfracture surgery on his right ankle in November.

"Oh yeah, we're concerned about it, there's no question about it," Amaro said. "But we're hopeful that he can come back . . . this is not an old player. He's been around a lot. But he's got a lot to prove. Getting back and playing in the outfield is one of the things he wants to do. I think he feels a lot more comfortable in rightfield. He was admittedly uncomfortable playing leftfield and he did not play leftfield very well. We're hoping he can get back and play his natural position at a much higher level."

"My motivation is getting to go out, play the field and contribute to a winning team," Young said. "You get to contribute for a team that is more than about stats and collecting paychecks. We have some guys here that, day in and day out, are going to bust their butt. You want to be one of those guys that come in and be reliable."

Time will tell if Amaro really means to play Young every day or merely hopes to ignite some splendid competition for the outfield corner positions come Spring training.

Amaro Sidesteps Best Option to Improve Team

J-Roll was awarded his 4th Gold Glove this offseason.

If you were told in October that the Phillies' offseason additions would consist of: a setup man + a #5 pitcher, an unproven career .278 hitter with 0 lifetime HR and a 36 year-old 3B who hit 8 HR in 2012, would you be satisfied?

Since the Phils 2012 season ended, Hunter Pence joined Kyle Lohse and Pat Burrell as recent ex-Phils to claim a World Championship, while Ruben Amaro Jr. signaled to the world his commitment to stay fast to the plan and write-off the disappointment of missing the 2012 playoffs as a fluke.

NBC Sports 12/10/12 Quote of the Day, Ruben Amaro on signing 3B Michael Young :

“He has all the elements we’re looking for,” general manager Ruben Amaro Jr. said. “First of all, the makeup is extraordinary. He’s the ultimate team player. He knows how to play baseball. He’s a winning baseball player. He’s had the opportunity to be in big games in the playoffs and he just fits real well.”

NBC elaborated:

"He later added — and I am not making this up — that Young is a 'professional hitter.' Kind of a bummer because now they have to pay him.
 

Blanton (far left) and Madson (far right) joined the Angels this week.

In other news, it’s a good thing he 'knows how to play baseball' or else it would have been really embarrassing when he showed up wearing scuba gear and asked what all the grass and dirt was for."

That was a non-Phillies fan take on a startlingly lackluster offseason by the Phils thus far.

This week, what Amaro called the one offensive "difference maker" available this offseason, Josh Hamilton signed with the L.A. Angels of Anaheim.  Hamilton was thought to be the Phillies best hope for regaining NL East glory.  Instead, Hamilton joined former Phils Ryan Madson (who grew up an Angels fan) and Joe Blanton (who once pitched for Oakland), becoming the newest Angels players announced this week.

The Phils?  Traded away Vance Worley and their #1 minor league pitching prospect.

In 1,064 career plate appearances, new Phillies CF Ben Revere has 0 HR. That's the most at-bats among all active players with 0 HR and the 5th-most since 1961.

The Phils could now be looking at an outfield of Revere, Domonic Brown and John Mayberry Jr./Laynce Nix.  Yikes!  There's always hope that last season's minor league wunderkind Darin Ruf makes a miraculous smooth early transition to the big leagues, unlike Brown's ongoing epic belly-flop.

So, Amaro Jr. decided not to sign the player that was, in his esteem, the best: "In Hamilton’s case, he’s the best player out there, there's no question" (12/7/12). So, does that instill confidence? Should fans feel that Amaro is serious about winning this year in light of his conservative minor tweaking of a roster that missed the playoffs in 2012?

Ryan Howard had better hit at least .275 and drive in 130 runs this year (last done in 2009).  Chase Utley had better play 150 games and bat .290 with 28 HR (last accomplished in 2008).  Otherwise, a too often paltry lineup in recent years could look mighty lean come April.

Newest Phillies:

Setup man reliever Mike Adams (2012 Texas Rangers):

The Phils lost 16 games last season that they led in the 7th inning or later.  Adams leads all set-up men in baseball in Holds over the last three seasons with 97.

Adams posted a 3.27 ERA with 7.7 strikeouts per nine innings with the Texas Rangers in 2012, his worst full season since 2004, his rookie year. But only Craig Kimbrel, Eric O'Flaherty, Sergio Romo, and Mariano Rivera have lower ERAs among relief pitchers since 2010. Adams (2.06 ERA) has thrown more innings than any of them during that span.  His declining fastball velocity is a red flag. It averaged 93.4 m.p.h. in 2010, 92.7 m.p.h. in 2011, and 91.3 m.p.h. in 2012, according to Pitch F/X data.

Starting pitcher John Lannan (2012 Washington Nationals):

Lifetime 42-52 with a 4.01 ERA and alarmingly horrendous 1.42 WHIP in 6 MLB seasons. He posts a 3.80 ERA if his outings against the Phillies are removed.  He has posted a 5.53 ERA in 19 career starts against the Fightin'. Ominously, Lannan has a 6.49 ERA in 8 career starts at Citizens Bank Park.


Phillies Top Offseason Stories So Far:

Very little could rival the 2011 offseason headline: Roy Halladay saves man in Amazon from death by snake:

What you swim in when earning $25-million a year.



"Roy Halladay Amazon Fishing Trip: Pitcher Saves Man After Anaconda Bite Along With Longtime Friend Chris Carpenter, who Halladay lost the World Series to Only Weeks Prior "

However, "Ryan Howard Narrowly Escapes Own Stupidity" could be seen as danger of a similar magnitude.

Also, there was Jimmy Rollins winning his 4th Gold Glove (2012, 2009, 2008, 2007).  Rollins lead the NL with a .978 fielding percentage.  

His offensive contribution in 2012 was equally significant.  J-Roll ranked 4th in NL in R (102) and 5th in NL in SB (30).  He also led the Phils in HR (23) and RBI (68), making him an extremely cost-effective per market value $11-million SS. 

Rollins, the longest standing Phillies player, is 34 years-old.  There was an interesting article written about him bt ESPN in Septemeber.  If you're a J-Roll fan, check it out: "The Mainstay".

 

Phils Subtract Pitching, Add Powerless Bats

In 2 moves that left area Mathematicians perplexed, the Phils subtracted pitching and added powerless bats, a feeble nod at contending with the spend-happy, Evil Empire West L.A. Dodgers, who continued making waves of a considerably different size.

36 year-old Michael (not so) Young is so totally underwhelming that his signing actually causes more concern than it reassures.   Is this what management really thinks of as difference-maker for this team?  Yes, the Phils needed a 3rd-sacker and yes, he is a veteran presence (as some were quick to note), but in an infield full of old, broke down bodies, is Young really giving the Phillies what they need?

In the trade with Texas, the Phils unloaded two righthanded relievers: Josh Lindblom, who arrived last July in the Shane Victorino trade, and Lisalverto Bonilla, a 22-year-old minor leaguer who had a 1.55 ERA in 31 games between Single A Clearwater and Double A Reading in 2012.



Even Kissing His Bat Didn't Improve Young's Woeful 2012.



The Rangers are paying $10 million of the $16 million Young is owed in 2013.

"He has a tremendous track record," Amaro said. "I know that last year was not his best year but after talking to the scouts and discussing it intently with the rest of our front office, we felt like this is an excellent person to bring to our club.

"The fact that he hits righthanded helps balance our lineup out a little bit as well. I just think all the elements he brings to the table for us are very, very positive."

Amaro alluded to 2012 not being Young's best year, which is somewhat concerning for a 36-year-old player. Young's batting average (.277), on-base percentage (.312), OPS (.682), home runs (8) and RBI (67) were all his lowest totals in 10 years.


Meanwhile, late last week, the Phils acquired CF Ben (no relation to Paul) Revere by trading SP Vance Worley and their #1 pitching prospect, 23-year-old Trevor May. The righthander struggled through most of last season, posting a 10-13 record and a 4.87 ERA at double-A Reading.



Amaro Hopes Revere's The Poor Man's Michael Bourn.



Revere, 24, had a .326 batting average and .383 on-base percentage in parts of five seasons in the Twins' minor-league system (although that's the minor leagues) and batted .294 in 553 plate appearances with the big-league team last season. He also stole 40 bases in 49 attempts and scored 70 runs. He did not make an error while playing 121 games at all three outfield positions. 

He is young and unproven, but with true potential.  However, the price the Phils paid to get him cannot be underscored enough.  When Worley was healthy, in 2011, he was a Rookie-of-the-Year candidate.  The Phils must have decided that after season-ending elbow surgery in 2012, he wouldn't be the same.  Unless they were simply counting on him being another J.A. Happ flash-in-the-pan sensation ready to topple.

Moving May, however, is perhaps less prudent.  The Phils had already ripped the farm bare of prospects, now May is the latest top arm to depart in the mass exodus of minor league talent during Amaro's early years as GM. 

One thing Revere will not provide is power. He has zero home runs and 33 extra-base hits in 1,064 plate appearances.

Young will not offer power either.

In 12 MLB seasons, he has hit a total of 177 HR. He hit 11 in 2011 and 8 in 2012.

Equally troubling is the fact that NL foes the Dodgers made some devastatingly powerhouse moves of their own while the Phils plucked some circumspect singles-hitters to maybe somewhat bolster their limp lineup.

The Dodgers had an active weekend, agreeing to terms late Saturday with free agent superstar pitcher Zack Greinke on a six-year, $147 million deal. They will enter the 2013 season with a record payroll of more than $230 million. Adding Zack Greinke and Korean left-hander Hyun-Jin Ryu over the weekend makes the Dodgers the NL front runner for 2013.

Meanwhile, the Phils added a guy to play third who's over-the-hill and hit 8 HR last year.

The Phillies have achieved symmetry in recent years. In 2007, they missed the playoffs. In 2008, they won the World Series. Then, in 2009, they lost it. In 2010, they lost the NLCS and in 2011 they lost the NLDS. Finally, in 2012, they missed the playoffs again. So, it's a perfectly balanced rise and fall. From 2009-2011, they were eliminated in the playoffs by the team that went on to win the World Series.

Now, with a rotation of Halladay, Lee, Hamels and Kendrick, the Phils appear to be in the market for a 5th starter, as well as a power-hitting outfielder the caliber of a Josh Hamilton, a teammate of ex-Ranger Michael Young last season.  Perhaps the Phils will reunite the former Rangers in Philadelphia.

2012 Phils Hope to Resemble 1979

Sunday, hard-luck Lee fell to 6-8 on the year.

The Phillies season unofficially ended Sunday the way it began last Spring, with limp offense squandering a dazzling display of top-notch, dominant pitching by Cliff Lee (3-1, 0.99 ERA in September, 76 S.O. to 4 BB since July).

Lee S.O. 11 and walked none, while allowing only 1 earned run in 8 innings.  However, the same Phillies who posted 16 runs on 21 hits September 20th vs. the hapless Mets were impotent against Tim Hudson and the playoff bound Braves, posting just 2 hits and 0 runs against him and his unflappable bullpen.

Times like these separate the October teams from the wannabes, and the 2012 Phillies-- despite an exhilarating late-season surge-- now officially belong to the latter.

They closed that gap to within 3 GB over the weekend, but have stumbled, losing 2-in-a-row to Atlanta to fall 5 GB with 9 to play and 4 teams ahead of them for the final playoff spot in a September with zero margin of error, thanks to the corner that they painted themselves into.

On July 13th, when the Phils were 37-51, they were a team without hope, offering little signs of life.

They were 14 games under .500 and 11 GB of the 2nd and final Wild Card spot.

Then, the Phillies went an unlikely 40-25 to rebound as faux postseason contenders.

Now, at 77-76, having presently won 20-of-29, the Phils are precisely what their record shows: a winning ballclub, something they have gotten used to since 2002.

2012 may yet be the Phillies 10th consecutive year of winning baseball.  The remaining 9 games will decide little more than that.

Cloyd S.O. 26 and walked just 5 in his 1st 28 MLB innings. 

However, there have been many signs of hope over the 2nd-half of the season.  Enthusiasm has been renewed in the clubhouse and among the once-beleaguered fanbase, who finally had something to root for this season. 

The injection of some promising young pitchers, like Tyler Cloyd and Jeremy Horst have been a huge part of that.

So has the reemergence of prodigal son Chase Utley and the powering-up of slugger Ryan Howard.

25 year-old Cloyd impressed with 9 S.O., 0 BB and 1 run in 7 innings vs. NL frontrunners Cincinnati on September 3rd and 26 year-old Horst S.O. 32 in 26 innings, allowing just 1 HR with a 1.04 ERA in relief, signaling that some of the team's weakest links, i.e. bullpen, might be strengthened from within the organization.

Utley's comeback has been arresting.  After hitting a HR in his 1st game of the season on June 27th, Utley batted .293 with a .417 OBP in September.  His .451 SLG % is 2nd on the team (to Ruiz's .542).

Now that Utley is learning 3rd base, he promises to be an integral part of the 2013 Phils.


 Howard hit a 9th inning grand slam on 9/20.

Howard, who returned from Achilles heel injury perhaps prematurely, hit HRs in 4 consecutive games from Sept. 19-22 and has posted 14 HR and 55 RBI in just 67 games, which projects out to a 30 HR, 100 RBI season, which the Phils will need from the high-paid slugger in 2013.

Meanwhile, his high-paid compatriot Jonathan Papelbon put together a stellar August and September, lowering his ERA from 3.34 to 2.30,  retroactively justifying his July all-star selection.

Perhaps the most uplifting 2nd-half contribution came from leadoff hitter Jimmy Rollins, the longest standing Phillies player.  After being benched by his manager for lackluster effort, Rollins came alive with a .298, 7 HR September to give him 22 HR and 30 SB this season. 

It was Rollins swagger and preseason prediction that ignited the '07 Phils to their 1st division win in 14 years.

From 2007-2011 the Phillies were NL East Champions.  In 2011, they posted a franchise-best 102 wins. 

So, naturally, hovering around .500, but with a losing record for nearly the entire season, the 2012 Phils have been a disappointment.

However, they are ending on a bright note with promise of competitive baseball yet to come, especially with aggressive management Amaro and co. waiting in the wings to reshuffle and make the kind of acquisitions that have enabled the recent winning ways.

The 1976-78 Phils, led by Schmidt, Carlton and Greg "the Bull" Luzinski, won their division every year.  They posted then franchise best 101 win seasons in '76 & '77. 

Then, in 1979, the bottom dropped out.  A refueled division was won by Pittsburgh, whose 98 wins were tops in the NL and who went on to win the World Series, something the '76-'78 Phils, who lost in the NLCS each year, dropping a sum of 9 of 11 games, had painfully failed to do.

In 1979, it got worse.  They finished 4th instead of 1st and appeared to have ended an era without having even a single World Series appearance to show for it.


The 2013 Phils will attempt to rebound as the 1980 Phils did.

Of course, the following year the 1980 Phillies captured the heart of Philly fans forever with the franchise's 1st World Series win.  Schmidt (48 HR, .624 SLG % that year) finally rose on the biggest stage (8-for-21 .381 World Series, 2 HR and 7 RBI) and there was Carlton being Carlton: 24-9, 2.34 ERA, 286 S.O. and a 3-0 postseason.

So, while the '12 Phils are the 1st to miss the playoffs since '06, there is a lot of promise and renewed enthusiasm inside and around the organization after a terrific 2nd half that did not a season make.

What Amaro and co. do now will be heavily watched and could have tremendous impact.  The Nationals have proven they are for real, even if a Strasburg-less postseason fizzles abruptly.  Meanwhile, there's always the Braves, with 26 year-old Kris Medlen (9-1, 1.51 ERA) the latest in a remarkable line of Braves' starters to lead the team to top the NL.

Heading into the 2012 season, GM Amaro Jr. spent big on a closer, but neglected the bridge between his star-studded starters, who were often injured and underwhelming this season.  That busted bridge accounted for enough losses in the 1st half alone that it could have single-handedly closed the gap between the Phils' 3rd place finish and a playoff birth.

He also relied too heavily on the idea that injured stars Utley and Howard would rebound promptly from their significant injuries to account for a necessary chunk of offense, which instead went missing for the vast majority of the season.


Swisher has hit .160 in 100 postseason at-bats.

A top-notch outfielder and more bullpen help from outside the organization have to be Amaro's primary concerns. 

Shrewdly freeing up salary by parting ways with overpriced outfielders Pence and Victorino was a first step toward filling the gap vacated in 2010 by Jayson Werth.  The Phils will need another power-hitting outfielder if they are to compete in 2013.  Clearly, John Mayberry Jr., despite his promising 2nd half in '11 is not that man with major league consistency.  Despite flashes of his talent in 2012, Dominic Brown hasn't been either.

So, they will need to sift through the slim free agent market or make a trade to bolster their outfield.

The Yankees' Nick Swisher is available, has hit at least 20 HR in his last 8 seasons and is known as a chatty, uplifting clubhouse presence.

The Angels' Torii Hunter and Rangers' Josh Hamilton are available, but devoted to their respective teams.  [Click here for a complete list of potential free agents this offseason.]

The Phillies have risen, a Pheonix From the Flames during the 2nd-half of '12.  Like '06, they began with a fizzle and ended with a pop.  Now the future is theirs for the writing.  It will be an offseason of recharging (Amaro), getting healthy (Howard, Halladay, Worley) and eager anticipation.

Phils Find Magic

When Chase Utley came up with 2 out in the top of the 9th and nobody on, he promptly went into a 1-2 hole: Ball, Strike (looking), Strike (foul).


Rollins is hitting the cover off the ball this month
.

 The Phillies had managed just 2 hits all night, one of those the 43rd leadoff HR of Rollins' career, his team-leading 22nd of the year.  Rollins, making $11 million this year, also leads all Phils (with qualifying number of at-bats) in Ave., OBP, hits, RBI, runs and toal bases and is 2nd with 30 SB.  He is hitting .333 with 7 HR in September.

However, the Phils had managed just 1 hit since his HR in the 1st.

After losing 3-of-4 to MLB's worst team in Houston over the weekend, they seemed resigned to save their fight for next year rather than squander it on the hapless Mets.

Meanwhile, the Dodgers were winning convincingly, 6-0, as were the Cardinals, 5-0 and Brewers, 3-0. The Wild Card picture appeared certain to exclude the Phils with a finality by the end of the night.

At Citi Field, lefty Josh Edgin from Lewiston, PA had just S.O. Rollins and Ty Wigginton on 8 pitches to start the 9th and had Utley down 1 ball-to-2 strikes.

Nonetheless, true competitor to the end, Utley fought his way back: Ball, Foul, Foul, Ball, Ball to earn a walk.


Utley-Howard: For Old Times Sake.

The final pitch was so close that Utley and Home Plate umpire Bruce Davidson stood staring, briefly, then assumed position for the next pitch before someone told them Utley should go to 1st.

Next up, a name that strikes fear in the hearts of Phillies fans, lately. All week long I had been fielding emails in response to my post, "Mr. September vs. Father Time." 

Most of them were about Howard, and they weren't favorable.  The most optimistic fan I heard from was off for a vacation until October 6th. 

Others wished Howard was on vacation, still on the DL or worse.

"Howard... vs. LHP: .167... Let's face it: Ry-Ho is at best a platoon hitter," read one fan, understandably tired of watching the Phils season end with a lame whiff from Howard, swinging for the trees and coming up empty.

In fact, Howard was 0-for-20 vs. lefthanders when he stepped up to the plate against Edgin.

Strike 1 (looking).  Here we go.  Come on Ryan, make us forget the $20 million your 230 AB and 87 S.O. have cost this year.

The scoreboard flashed: the Dodgers 6-0 lead had evaporated.  Their game was now tied, 6-6.



Wednesday Howard defied the odds
and gave Phils the win.

Then he did it.  A 93 mph fastball in his sweet spot, and Howard crushed it, sending it to carom off the front of the second deck in right field, a  373 foot shot.

At 10-3 in their last 13 and 18-7 in last 25, the Phils eclipsed the Pirates in the playoff hunt and now trail only St. Louis (Wild Card place holders, winners of 3-straight, putting it to Houston like Phils ought to have), the Dodgers (2 GB, a 9th inning HR from Matt Kemp gave them a 7-6 win tonight) and Milwaukee (8-2 in last 10, hottest team in baseball).  

Cole Hamels gave it his all with 10 S.O. in 6 innings, but David Wright's 2-run HR stood up until the 9th, preventing Hamels from recording his career-best 16th win.  Hamels has just 1 win since August 18th. 

Wright is now appx. .338 with 4 HR and 19 RBI vs. Phils this year after hitting .301 against them from '08-'11.  

Next up:   Phils go for the sweep in NY in a rookie starters showdown at 7:10 pm on Thursday.  

25 year-old Tyler Cloyd (1-1, 4.95 ERA) vs. 26 year-old Jeremy Hefner (2-6, 4.99 ERA).

The Phillies have no margin for error and zero head-to-head games remaining against any of the Wild Card teams.  Their only playoff hope is to continue to win while the other 3 teams simultaneously lose the majority of their respective games.  Otherwise, all this is for the promise of a better 2013 and has at least made them surprisingly relevant to the playoff picture again.