Is Hamels Being Traded?

Hamels, saddled to the last place Phillies, has plenty to frown about.

According to Bob Nightengale of USA Today, Hamels, 31, said he would be willing to waive his no-trade clause to go to the Yankees or Rangers in the AL and seven other teams from the NL, including his hometown San Diego Padres. While most of the teams remain unknown, it's probable that they're all presently more competitive than the Phillies. Hamels, a former NLCS and World Series MVP is in his prime and wants to win again.  With their flurry of offseason moves and hometown edge, the Padres are poised to make a hefty swing at the lefty Ace.  In the AL, the Yankees may have the edge over the Rangers.

The Hamels sweepstakes has commenced.

Hamels won't come cheap with a guaranteed $94 million coming to him over the next four years and a vesting option for an additional $20 million for his age-35 season. It's a lot of money, a contract the 2015 Yankees are unlikely to take on, but on the very big upside, the deal expires before Hamels late 30s. If we use the $1 million the Phillies threw in for the $11 million Rollins is owed in 2015 as a guideline, Philadelphia might only be willing to offer up 10% of their ace's contract. That would end up being around $9-10 million, leaving the Yankees holding the remaining $84 million bill. That's all just conjecture obviously, but keep in mind that if Ruben Amaro is looking for a big return, the more money he takes on, the better package of prospects he will get.

Hamels, who pitched to a 2.46 ERA and 3.07 FIP in 2014 while completing his fifth consecutive season of 200+ innings, would be the No. 1 or No. 2 in the Yankees rotation, putting less pressure on Masahiro Tanaka, lowering expectations for Michael Pineda and Nathan Eovaldi, while pushing CC Sabathia to fifth starter and Chris Capuano to the bullpen.



Hamels has been among MLB's best the past few years.

The Phillies have explored the idea of trading Cole Hamels for a couple of months now, but nothing has been set in stone and no negotiations reached a point anyone would label as being close to a deal. There were rumors the Phillies were asking for a huge haul for Hamels -- understandable given their needy situation -- and the expectation that he would stay put at least until Jon Lester, Max Scherzer, and maybe even James Shields signed. While it's still not clear when a trade would go down, it's becoming more likely that the lefty isn't long for the Phillies after Hamels waived his no-trade clause for the Yankees, the Rangers, the Padres, and six unknown National League teams last week.

That doesn't mean the Phillies can only choose from those nine clubs when figuring out potential Hamels' destinations. Those nine teams won't have to pick up Hamels' $20 million option for 2019 in order to trade for him, however, and that could make a swap a little simpler since one fewer year of guaranteed commitment -- with the option still around should it prove to be worthwhile -- is an attractive proposition.

Peter Gammons, three-time National Sportswriter of the Year, wonders if Hamels is going to bring the Phillies the franchise-changing return they seek. The Padres probably don't want to move potential cornerstone Wil Myers. The Red Sox have firmly decided not to trade Mookie Betts or Blake Swihart to get a Hamels' deal done.  Phils GM Reuben Amaro Jr. is reportedly peeved about this, making Hamels to Red Sox suddenly less likely.  The Dodgers won't move Julio Urias, Corey Seager, or Joc Pederson. The Yankees might have the prospects to complete a Hamels' deal, but not the ones that would rejuvenate the Phillies. History suggests the Phillies are going to be disappointed when they finally do move their best pitcher, but there is a very real chance he won't be that kind of pitcher by the time the Phillies are any good again.

Hamels threw his first (albeit combined) no-hitter on 9/1/14.

All of this is mind-boggling.  Fans have to wonder how they'll feel if Hamels is moved and the Phils have nothing to show for it in coming years.  That was the case when they traded Cliff Lee in his prime, before getting him back again in free agency.  It's likely going to be that they get no significant return for trading veteran Jimmy Rollins this offseason as well.

On the other hand, if they stay put and don't even try to get return for Hamels, then subsequently fail to compete for the remainder of his contract, you bet Amaro will be under fire from fans, yet again.

So, it's a little damned if you do, damned if you don't, but that's why he gets paid the big bucks.

Ultimately, it's a gamble either way, especially if they wait and Hamels gets injured during the season, which would plummet his trade value, which is what happened with Cliff Lee this past year.

Jimmy Rollins' full-page ad in Saturday's Philadelphia Inquirer

The print is a little small so here's the full text:

To the City of Philadelphia,

Words cannot begin to describe what these past 18 years as a Phillie have meant to me. Starting as a teenager from Northern California, becoming a husband and now a father of two beautiful children, I’ve spent nearly half of my life growing up in front of all of you.

We’ve shared a lot of great memories that I’ll cherish forever. From being the “team to beat,” to our great postseason run and raising that World Championship banner, it has been an honor playing in front of the most passionate fans in the world. You let us hear it when things got tough and you rocked “The Bank” when we needed you most.

It’d like to thank the countless staff members throughout the organization that have supported me and the Rollins Family Foundation over the years. We wouldn’t be where we are today without all of you.
 

To my teammates, you guys are family and always will be. There have been many to come and go over the years and I’ve enjoyed taking the field with each and every one of you. Chase, Hollywood, Chooch, Big Piece … brothers for life.

Lee Thomas, Ed Wade, Pat Gillick, Ruben Amaro and the managers that I’ve played for over the years, Tito, Larry, Charlie and Ryno; thank you for giving me the opportunity and making a kid from Alameda’s dream come true. Mr. Montgomery, thank you for everything.

Love you all! Peace.

Jimmy, Johari, Cam & Lolo

Rollins was selected by the Philadelphia Phillies in the 2nd round of the 1996 amateur draft. He went on to spend his first 15 major league seasons in a Phillies uniform, accumulating 2,306 hits, 1,325 runs scored, 216 home runs, 887 RBIs, 453 stolen bases and 111 triples. He also earned three All-Star selections and one MVP award in 2007, while helping the Phillies win five division championships and a World Series championship in 2008.